Will the NCAA March Tourney be played without an audience?

[auror]

That means absolutely nothing. Death rate is the key number

CFR stands for case fatality rate

Study of 72,000 COVID-19 patients finds 2.3% death rate

www.cidrap.umn.edu

In comparison to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) coronaviruses, which were both identified in the past 20 years, COVID-19 is likely more highly transmissible but not as deadly, the researchers noted. (SARS had a CFR of 9.6%; MERS has a CFR of 34.4%.) And unlike SARS and MERS, hospital-based outbreaks do not seem to be hallmark of COVID-19 at this time.

Since the goal is reduction of deaths in general, the transmissible rate is VERY relevant to the broad discussion. You may be right about the specifically defined term "deadliness" or CFR, but a colloquial sense of "how likely am I to be killed by this outbreak at large", the two factors both need to be considered.

 

[methodology]

Since the goal is reduction of deaths in general, the transmissible rate is VERY relevant to the broad discussion. You may be right about the specifically defined term "deadliness" or CFR, but a colloquial sense of "how likely am I to be killed by this outbreak at large", the two factors both need to be considered.

It seems it's spread very similar to the flu. Gotta wash your hands frequently and avoid people sneezing and coughing.

The issue I have is people over reacting as if you will die if you get it. That's not the case and it's nowhere close to SARS or MERS for death rate

 

[CL82]

That a bogus photo. They are not wearing gloves.

Concession to ball handling.

 

[UCfor3]

It seems it's spread very similar to the flu. Gotta wash your hands frequently and avoid people sneezing and coughing.

The issue I have is people over reacting as if you will die if you get it. That's not the case and it's nowhere close to SARS or MERS for death rate

Avoiding people who are sneezing and coughing is advised, but it's just not that simple. Many people don't have symptoms yet but are highly contagious and unknowingly spreading it. Also, this virus seems to live on surfaces for a decent amount of time. It's not that you WILL die, it's that you CAN die. I have health issues including pulmonary/lung issues so it's at least a little concerning. My wife works for a home health care nursing company. That's a bit concerning to me. If you are young and healthy, congrats. Do you have parents that are older though? Grandparents? Does your wife have parents? Do you love someone with health issues? Basically there is a happy medium somewhere between being dismissive and panic. They are both equally stupid.

 

[Palatine]

If they just ban elderly persons who have a medical condition, you could fill the place and feel safe.

 

[Chin Diesel]

If they just ban elderly persons who have a medical condition, you could fill the place and feel safe.

So, they're only doing a fan ban for the NCAA Women's bball tourney?

 

[UCfor3]

If they just ban elderly persons who have a medical condition, you could fill the place and feel safe.

It will still spread at the games and then the young people who get it will go somewhere else with elderly or at risk people and unknowingly give it to them. This is why large gathering events are being curtailed or outright cancelled in some countries. It's a chain reaction of events that cause it to spread. If this gets really bad, arrogance and people generally being irresponsible will be one of the main reasons why.

 

[Palatine]

ALZ 112, ALZ 113

 

[ConnEd]

Someone suggested that Covid-19 is being under reported because many have mild or no symptoms and never seek treatment or get tested. Can't the same be said for the flu? It just went through my house. One of my daughters got tested and was positive. When my other daughter and wife came down with the same mild symptoms, they never went to the doctor. So, only 1 of 3 cases was reported in my home.

 

[auror]

Someone suggested that Covid-19 is being under reported because many have mild or no symptoms and never seek treatment or get tested. Can't the same be said for the flu? It just went through my house. One of my daughters got tested and was positive. When my other daughter and wife came down with the same mild symptoms, they never went to the doctor. So, only 1 of 3 cases was reported in my home.

It's a fair point, but I think enough studies have been done on the flu/influenza strains over the year that the data is pretty solid. That being said, the rates do change based on the flu strains that are popular in a given year.

 

[Mano]

I’m guessing “young” and “healthy” are relative terms:

Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
Cardiovascular disease​	13.2%​	10.5%​
Diabetes​	9.2%​	7.3%​
Chronic respiratory disease​	8.0%​	6.3%​
Hypertension​	8.4%​	6.0%​
Cancer​	7.6%​	5.6%​
no pre-existing conditions ​	​	0.9%​

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

Another view: Who Is Most Susceptible to the New Coronavirus?

Looks like the numbers bear out that the Women's Tourney is in serious jeopardy.

 

[Leebo]

How many deaths did it take to shut down the most populated continent in the world? Or 13 million school children in Japan? I don’t see it happening

The US now has as many deaths as Japan.

 

[87Xfer]

So, they're only doing a fan ban for the NCAA Women's bball tourney?

Ouch!

 

[80shusky]

Avoiding people who are sneezing and coughing is advised, but it's just not that simple. Many people don't have symptoms yet but are highly contagious and unknowingly spreading it. Also, this virus seems to live on surfaces for a decent amount of time. It's not that you WILL die, it's that you CAN die. I have health issues including pulmonary/lung issues so it's at least a little concerning. My wife works for a home health care nursing company. That's a bit concerning to me. If you are young and healthy, congrats. Do you have parents that are older though? Grandparents? Does your wife have parents? Do you love someone with health issues? Basically there is a happy medium somewhere between being dismissive and panic. They are both equally stupid.

The concerning part you mention is you can have it and show no symptoms for weeks but still be contagious. Kids also aren't affected that badly by it if they don't have an underlying health condition but can carry it and spread it without showing much more than a runny nose. If you've never had kids, they always have a runny nose.

 

[FatHank]

Not to worry the NCAA is working on a plan as we speak:

View attachment 51438

Gold!!!

 

[TerryBoyz]

Hearing the E-sports team will play the games instead

 

[Palatine]

The flu for this season (Oct 1- Feb 1) in the USA , not counting Coronavirus is between 18,000 and 46,000 according to the CDC.

The death rate of Coronavirus is currently unknown because mild cases are often undetectable and moderate cases are often attributed to regular cold or flu.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[uconnyankee]

You people talking about the flu are comparing apples to oranges. The flu kills thousands every year, yes, but, so far, deaths per infection are roughly twice as high for the current outbreak of coronavirus. Hopefully that rate will go down, and hopefully there won't be too many infections in places that haven't already had them.

Yes but it’s very likely the number of cases is underreported.

 

[auror]

I would not hold games (or I would have no crowds) for the games in Washington. Or at the very least I would have a STRONG contingency plan. That situation is escalating and the testing is woefully underreporting the spread of the virus there. They are up to 9 deaths in Washington, most of whom were tested post-mortem, and there is no link known for how the nursing home that most of the deaths were from was infected.

It's perhaps an outlier since the nursing home was more at risk, but 9 deaths would imply something like 500 cases, instead of only the 27 actually confirmed. That means the difference between the two numbers is undetected and currently spreading the virus at a likely exponential rate. Even if that number is only 200 instead of 475 due to the cluster nature of the deaths, it's much, much worse than 27, since it represents an additional ~4 growth cycles.

The only saving grace is that it might still be fairly early in the potential pandemic there. It seems like cases have been roughly tripling in a week, so there might only be a few thousand cases in Washington by the time the games are played as opposed to 50k in a month if it spreads without being contained.

Washington State risks seeing explosion in coronavirus cases without dramatic action, new analysis says

A computational biologist estimates there are likely already at least 500 to 600 coronavirus cases in the greater Seattle area.

www.statnews.com

 

[navery12]

 

[David 76]

But everyone attending games w the flu is ok??? Which is like 1000x and causes like 10000x more deaths?? Nice job by mainstream media creating a completely unnecessary panic.

We have absolutely no idea how many deaths this will cause. It is brand new and estimated to be 20 times more deadly than the flu.