Will Baylor go undefeated again?

[bballnut90]

Haven't posted on the new board yet, thought I'd bring up a new topic for fans to debate about in anticipation of this upcoming season. Simple question, will Baylor pull off back to back perfect seasons?

A few points to consider:
1. Why they can:
-return all 5 starters, including the best center (and player) in the nation in Griner, as well as arguably the best point guard in Odyssey Sims.
-Shanay Washington will return after tearing her ACL. Washington is a phenomenal athlete and defender. Actually...I'm not sure Shanay will return as a player (she's listed a student assistant) and apparently this was her 5th ACL tear. That being said, if she returns it'll be just added gravy.
-Defensively, no other team really compares to Baylor....Griner eliminates all action in the paint, and guards play very close defense, knowing they can rely on Griner if their player gets past them. Sims may be the best on ball defensive guard in the nation.
-Most of the other top teams lose significant talent. Stanford takes a huge blow losing Nneka, Notre Dame graduated Peters, Novosel and Mallory, UCONN loses Hayes, Tennessee loses their slew of seniors, etc.
-Baylor simply throttled teams last year. With the exception of 2 games (A&M, UCONN) there was never really a real scare for Baylor.

2. Why they wont:
-returning bucket loads of talent doesn't always result in a title. Case in point: 1999 Tennessee, 2001 UCONN, 2007 Maryland

All of these teams returned an amazing wealth of talent, but for whatever reason (injuries, illness, team chemistry, etc.) they couldn't win a national championship.

-Schedule. Baylor has an absolutely ridiculous schedule, including Kentucky, Stanford, @UCONN, @ Notre Dame, Tennessee, then their Big 12 plate.

-up and coming teams. Teams like Duke and UCONN have potential to knock off Baylor. Both teams have a plethora of returning young talent that may develop in the off season/into next season. If these teams gel well together, they'll be very very tough to beat. Duke has a great point/post combo in Gray/Williams as well as a great supporting cast, while UCONN boasts unbelievable depth at every position.



My guess: I honestly think the only game Baylor could potentially lose before the tourney would be the game at UCONN. UCONN wont be lacking in depth or talent, and playing Baylor late in teh season at home will be a tough, tough environment for Baylor to get a win but that being said, I still don't think anyone on UCONN will be able to slow down Griner, and Baylor's experience playing together will get them the W. Anything can happen in the tournament, but based on recent history with the 2009-2010 UCONN squads I really don't see anyone dethroning Baylor as champs unless Sims/Griner/Williams gets injured.

 

[Vowelguy]

I think UConn is the only team with a chance to beat Baylor. Not sure anyone else will get close.

 

[HuskyNan]

It's much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter. I think the "streak" thing also starts to prey on players' minds. It's possible for Baylor to go undefeated again but I would say it's not probable. For the record, I thought UConn's second undefeated season in 2009-2010 was highly improbable, too.

 

[Vowelguy]

It's much tougher to be the hunted than the hunter. I think the "streak" thing also starts to prey on players' minds. It's possible for Baylor to go undefeated again but I would say it's not probable. For the record, I thought UConn's second undefeated season in 2009-2010 was highly improbable, too.

Normally I'd agree with you, but Baylor has a full-proof game plan against 95% of its opponents:
On offense, throw the ball into Griner who will get a very high-percentage shot.
On defense, have Griner block any shot that comes near the lane.

Almost no one has an answer for her on either end of the floor, so unless she goes for 0-30 on layups and the opponent goes 20-30 from 3-pt land, most teams have no chance.

Also I think KMR is a good enough coach that she wont let her kids rest for a second.

 

[alexrgct]

I don't think they beat UConn twice. My prediction has been that they lose in Hartford but beat UConn in New Orleans. So the streak ends, but they'll repeat as champs. If they beat this particular UConn team twice, they will have earned it for sure.

 

[Kibitzer]

My take.

Baylor flies into Hartford undefeated on February 18.

Baylor flies home on February 19, resolved to start a new streak.

This streak lasts until the NC game, when UConn performs an encore.

Obviously, I like our chances.

 

[bertieboy]

I was at last year's game in Waco that we lost by 5. At one point in the second half with about 13 minutes to go we were up by 11 and we also led at the half. But when things started going bad and Griner took off, we could not put Heather Buck back in because she had injured her wrist. She played only 2 minutes in the second half.

You may remember the wonderful defensive job she did on Griner at Uconn in 2010. With a healthy Heather and everyone else I like our chances in 2013.

 

[doggydaddy]

1. Why they can:
-return all 5 starters, including the best center (and player) in the nation in Griner, as well as arguably the best point guard in Odyssey Sims.

Griner is certainly the one game changer in WCBB. Sims? Great player, but I would say that Diggins, Hartley and Gray are just as good.

-Shanay Washington will return after tearing her ACL. Washington is a phenomenal athlete and defender. Actually...I'm not sure Shanay will return as a player (she's listed a student assistant) and apparently this was her 5th ACL tear. That being said, if she returns it'll be just added gravy.

Washington is not coming back.

-Defensively, no other team really compares to Baylor....Griner eliminates all action in the paint, and guards play very close defense, knowing they can rely on Griner if their player gets past them. Sims may be the best on ball defensive guard in the nation.

Griner makes them unique defensively, but not the best. UConn, against a tougher schedule gave up 47 points a game (1st), Baylor gave up 52 points a game (7th). Field goal defense, UConn 30.3 (1st), Baylor 31 (2nd). I'd say UConn compares favorably to Baylor defensively, and will be even better next year.


-Most of the other top teams lose significant talent. Stanford takes a huge blow losing Nneka, Notre Dame graduated Peters, Novosel and Mallory, UCONN loses Hayes, Tennessee loses their slew of seniors, etc.

I agree about Stanford, ND and Tennessee losing alot. UConn lost Hayes, but gain so much, it will be a much improved team.

-Baylor simply throttled teams last year. With the exception of 2 games (A&M, UCONN) there was never really a real scare for Baylor.

Iowa State gave them a game (12 points). So did Tennessee (9 points). Texas Tech lost by 8 and 5 in their two games. I count 6 games where they didn't "throttle" anyone.

 

[VAMike23]

I don't think they beat UConn twice. My prediction has been that they lose in Hartford but beat UConn in New Orleans. So the streak ends, but they'll repeat as champs. If they beat this particular UConn team twice, they will have earned it for sure.

Ditto on all counts except I think the NC game will be a "pick 'em" if these 2 teams meet (and I bet they will)

 

[John Glass]

yes, Alexis Prince is a tremendous addition who will take pressure off Griner, and Sims. There is no way Geno can leave her open like he did last season with the Baylor forwards.

 

[msf22b]

I think both games are a toss-up.

Obviously, we have a great deal more information on how Baylor will play and can only conjecture on how our splendid (not strong enough description), freshman threesome will jell.

But, with limited knowledge, I give us a very good chance. I worry about Stewie's tendency to foul which I noted but did not remark on in her recent U-18 appearences.
Certainly against Griner, that can be a problem.

Like all of us, I am fascinated by the prospect of the magic that Geno derives from this bunch. Looking and listening closely from afar (and have plans to visit with Ms. Maya when she begins her Chinese campaign).

 

[UConnCat]

Normally I'd agree with you, but Baylor has a full-proof game plan against 95% of its opponents:
On offense, throw the ball into Griner who will get a very high-percentage shot.
On defense, have Griner block any shot that comes near the lane.

Almost no one has an answer for her on either end of the floor, so unless she goes for 0-30 on layups and the opponent goes 20-30 from 3-pt land, most teams have no chance.

Also I think KMR is a good enough coach that she wont let her kids rest for a second.

In the national semi-finals, Stanford held Griner to 13 points (3 FGs and 7FTs) and held Baylor overall to 36% shooting. Stanford made one more FG than Baylor but shot 19 fewer FTs than Baylor. Stanford's defensive strategy was pretty straightforward: double Griner off of Madden and Condrey and force Baylor to shoot jumpers. The only thing Tara would change would be the fouls and she thought the officiating in that game left a lot to be desired. Stanford just didn't have anyone not named Nneka who could make an open shot. Baylor is an excellent defensive team, but Stanford missed a lot of open shots.

 

[UConnCat]

But, with limited knowledge, I give us a very good chance. I worry about Stewie's tendency to foul which I noted but did not remark on in her recent U-18 appearences.
Certainly against Griner, that can be a problem.

Stewart committed 4 fouls in 5 games.

 

[doggydaddy]

yes, Alexis Prince is a tremendous addition who will take pressure off Griner, and Sims. There is no way Geno can leave her open like he did last season with the Baylor forwards.

Prince is a primarily a guard and won't be playing in place of the forwards that UConn let shoot.

 

[Vowelguy]

In the national semi-finals, Stanford held Griner to 13 points (3 FGs and 7FTs) and held Baylor overall to 36% shooting. Stanford made one more FG than Baylor but shot 19 fewer FTs than Baylor. Stanford's defensive strategy was pretty straightforward: double Griner off of Madden and Condrey and force Baylor to shoot jumpers. The only thing Tara would change would be the fouls and she thought the officiating in that game left a lot to be desired. Stanford just didn't have anyone not named Nneka who could make an open shot. Baylor is an excellent defensive team, but Stanford missed a lot of open shots.

Yes, but Baylor is a year older and deeper. And Stanford had Nneka. I'm not saying UConn can't beat Baylor. But I am saying that I don't think anyone else can.

 

[doggydaddy]

Stewart committed 4 fouls in 5 games.

Cat, I had to actually look it up as saying someone was foul prone by observation should have some validity.

What was he seeing?

 

[UConnCat]

Cat, I had to actually look it up as saying someone was foul prone by observation should have some validity.

What was he seeing?

I don't know. I looked it up because I thought I must have missed some fouls. I didn't.

 

[UConnCat]

Yes, but Baylor is a year older and deeper. And Stanford had Nneka. I'm not saying UConn can't beat Baylor. But I am saying that I don't think anyone else can.

I agree that UConn is the only team that can beat Baylor (Duke is not at that level) but I think fans overlook just how well Stanford defended Baylor last year.

 

[John Glass]

Prince is a primarily a guard and won't be playing in place of the forwards that UConn let shoot.

actually Prince is a 6'2" forward, with a good outside shot, and she handles the ball very well. She will probably start at power forward her sophomore year.

 

[doggydaddy]

actually Prince is a 6'2" forward, with a good outside shot, and she handles the ball very well. She will probably start at power forward her sophomore year.

Baylor lists her as a guard, she played primarily a guard for the USA team and she will NEVER be a power forward.

 

[triaddukefan]

I dont think they will, and I certainly hope not.

 

[semper]

I say we lose the first one; we win the second one; and the championship game goes into OT.

 

[Scotter]

NEVER seems overly strong for a 6'1" player unless all we are playing is definitional semantics. She primarily played small forward for the USA team. If you mean guard in the two tiered, guards and posts then sure she is a perimeter player and I actually prefer the two tiered position system myself. Is Prince ever the starter at power forward? Unlikely, but it is not real hard to envision lineups where Prince is effectively the 4 during her Baylor career.

Not sure that what a school lists a player as matters. You don't seem convinced by UConn listing Bria Hartley at 5'7". Was anyone convinced Candace Parker could really play all 5 positions because Tennessee slapped up every position designation to next to her nameon the roster?

Baylor lists her as a guard, she played primarily a guard for the USA team and she will NEVER be a power forward.

 

[Bestiarius]

It's not illogical to think Baylor will go undefeated. But, we've all seen superior teams get off on the wrong foot. In no time, it's the half and the favorite is down by 7. No worries, plenty of time left. The third quarter starts with a turnover and a couple missed shots. Down 12 as the 4th quarter begins. The star point guard throws the ball into the stands and that bench player can't seem to miss. Before you know it, the underdog is making their foul shots in the last two minutes and the game is over. This doesn't happen often, but once in 30 or so games isn't unrealistic. That's how it happens, and it's likely even if Baylor wasn't playing Uconn.

 

[John Glass]

Baylor lists her as a guard, she played primarily a guard for the USA team and she will NEVER be a power forward.

Prince was third on the team in rebounds, and Jefferson and Mabrey were the starting guards. Baylor lists Madden, and Hayden as guards too, you can call her what you want, Prince will play the 3 (small forward) this year.

Baylor's post players are a big question mark for the 2013/14 season. They could go with an athletic lineup and play Prince at the 4 .