Who wins the "big one?"

[Devland]

Patriots were undefeated on the road this year. The Patriots defense is under rated. There is a myth that the Patriots were a bend but don't break defense this year. They were 8th overall in fewest yards allowed but per NFL network they allowed the fewest yards in the NFL in the second half of the season. They also allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season.

 

[storrsroars]

The Pats do usually play close games in SBs and I don't think this will be any different. If I were a betting man, I'd take the under, which last I heard was around 57.5. I expect the Pats D to practice flooding passing lanes to JJ and otherwise follow Belichick's MO of shutting down the opponent's best player - in this case Jones.

Falcons' defense has given up more points than 23 NFL teams scored all season. They're certainly suspect. I don't think Brady will have issues with it, although I expect a more conservative game plan than their last two playoff games.

Patriots 27-Falcons 20.

 

[intlzncster]

Patriots were undefeated on the road this year. The Patriots defense is under rated. There is a myth that the Patriots were a bend but don't break defense this year. They were 8th overall in fewest yards allowed but per NFL network they allowed the fewest yards in the NFL in the second half of the season. They also allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season.

It's not a myth. It's simply a description of the defensive philosophy they employ, results aside. Overall, the Patriots focus on limiting big plays. They want their opponents to check down to the 3rd and 4th options, on whom they'll make a quick tackle--they are a very sound fundamental tackling team. The purpose of that is to force the opponent to sustain 15+ drives. The Patriots want to allow enough rope for their opponents to make mistakes. They're betting they can play more sound football than the opposition, and it usually works.

Atlanta is a different beast though. While the Pats D is definitely good, but they obviously haven't faced an offense like Atlanta's. They can take away Julio Jones and the run game, but Atlanta's 2nd, 3rd, 4th and even 5th options can kill you. Definitely capable of sustaining those long drives over and over again.

Note, part of the Pats yards stats is often a function of their offense sustaining drives of their own, and getting superior field position.

 

[intlzncster]

20-4 after a bye since 2003. Not counting just Super Bowls. That probably bumps to like 23-6 counting those.

True, and that stat is valid, but the team they are facing in the Superbowl is always one of the best teams in the NFL. The impact of that stat is mitigated as a result.

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's a very interesting game. While the Falcons have a solid defense, it's nowhere near as good as Houston's and the Patriots just put up 34 on Houston. The real key is whether Atlanta can stop New England. If they can, then this will be a 3 point game.

New England's defense is good enough to slow down Atlanta, and will make things difficult for them. They can't stop them. Atlanta will score at least 24 points in my opinion. I'm excited to see the flow of the game. Which team has field position advantages? One of the keys to the NE defense is that the offense has so few three and outs. So you are mostly starting inside your 30. Both teams will need to be able to go 80 yards to get TDs. If either D pitches a 3 and out and gets its offense the ball around the 40 or closer, that team is likely going to score.

New England has advantages in experience and so on, but that doesn't always matter. My prediction. New England 34 Atlanta 27.

 

[mauconnfan]

Bellechick might take Butler and throw him on Sanu and double Julio. He likes to throw wrinkles like that out there. He's come up with some strategies like that since the Giants DC against the Bills, when he said he wanted Thurman Thomas to run for 100.

 

[Deadrody]

Bellechick might take Butler and throw him on Sanu and double Julio. He likes to throw wrinkles like that out there. He's come up with some strategies like that since the Giants DC against the Bills, when he said he wanted Thurman Thomas to run for 100.

Not as unique as you might think. The 49ers did that to the Cowboys in 1994 - put Deion on Alvin Harper and doubled Irvin.
While it worked, the fact that they turned the ball over twice and got in a 21-0 hole in the 1st quarter probably had more to do with why they lost that game

 

[Scoe]

I hope I'm wrong but, I just can't see that Pats losing this game, the closer we get to super bowl sunday, the more convinced I am the Pats will win this game. I think it will be fairly close and the Pats will control the game the score will look closer then it is. Ill go 30-20 Pats. It would be kind of cool to have the Giants being the only team to beat the Belichick-Brady duo in a Super Bowl.

 

[Scoe]

Bellechick might take Butler and throw him on Sanu and double Julio. He likes to throw wrinkles like that out there. He's come up with some strategies like that since the Giants DC against the Bills, when he said he wanted Thurman Thomas to run for 100.

Im always interested to see those chess matches, going back to Super Bowl 42 the Giants keys were to stop Moss and Faulk, and let Welker get his catches and hammer him, of course it helped to have a pass rush too.

I think the Pats have an advantage in the fact that they dont have one receiver you can just key on not saying the Falcons dont have other receivers other then Julio because they do, the Pats have so many weapons Edelman, Bennett, Lewis, White, Mitchell, Floyd, Hogan, and Amendola is back (he can burn you deep). No pressure on Brady game over.

 

[Scoe]

Could Nick Williams and Blidi be secret weapons, you never know.

 

[intlzncster]

just can't see that Pats losing this game, the closer we get to super bowl sunday, the more convinced I am the Pats will win this game. I think it will be fairly close and the Pats will control the game the score will look closer then it is. Ill go 30-20 Pats. It would be kind of cool to have the Giants being the only team to beat the Belichick-Brady duo in a Super Bowl.

This is the reason I'm thinking they blow it. With the NFL, whenever you think it's gonna happen, it doesn't.

 

[intlzncster]

I think the Pats have an advantage in the fact that they dont have one receiver you can just key on not saying the Falcons dont have other receivers other then Julio because they do, the Pats have so many weapons Edelman, Bennett, Lewis, White, Mitchell, Floyd, Hogan, and Amendola is back (he can burn you deep). No pressure on Brady game over.

The one thing hurting the Falcons is that they really have only one real pass rush threat in Beasely. If they can't get pressure with the front 4, it could be a long night on D for Atlanta.

The Giants beat the Pats (esp with regards to 2007), because those front 4 could get pressure, without needing to blitz. If you blitz, Brady will find the mismatch and burn you.

Their offense has a crapload of weapons though...Jones, Sanu, Gabriel, Hooper, Robinson, and two dynamic backs in Freeman and Coleman. Ryan is very accurate and patient. I'm not really sure what BB can do to stop them.

 

[Danzz]

Would love to see Atlanta win but the Pats will come out on top in a game that will not be close.

 

[intlzncster]

Would love to see Atlanta win but the Pats will come out on top in a game that will not be close.

I just don't know how all you guys are seeing this.

 

[shizzle787]

I hate to say it but the Patriots will win. Atlanta is not the type of team to beat the Pats. If Seattle or Green Bay were in the SB, they could win, but I don't trust a soft Atlanta team.

 

[Devland]

One thing for Atlanta to be concerned with is the Patriots receivers usually get a lot of yards after catch. Atlanta's defense was last in the NFL in YAC at 132.9 a game. Meanwhile the Patriots defense was first in YAC at 91.4 a game. Offensively they were close to the same. The Falcons were 2nd and the Pat's were 3rd.

 

[intlzncster]

One thing for Atlanta to be concerned with is the Patriots receivers usually get a lot of yards after catch. Atlanta's defense was last in the NFL in YAC at 132.9 a game. Meanwhile the Patriots defense was first in YAC at 91.4 a game. Offensively they were close to the same. The Falcons were 2nd and the Pat's were 3rd.

Yeah, but they are really fast, and that can counteract the Pats smaller quicker receivers. Falcon's D has improved quite a bit in the last 8 games or so.

The one thing that's hard to gauge is, the Atlanta D has had the luxury of being ahead by a bunch, and playing accordingly. What happens when a team is keeping pace with them offensively. I don't know.

This is the type of team where not having Gronk could finally bite the Pats in the arse.

 

[mauconnfan]

Yeah, but they are really fast, and that can counteract the Pats smaller quicker receivers. Falcon's D has improved quite a bit in the last 8 games or so.

The one thing that's hard to gauge is, the Atlanta D has had the luxury of being ahead by a bunch, and playing accordingly. What happens when a team is keeping pace with them offensively. I don't know.

This is the type of team where not having Gronk could finally bite the Pats in the arse.

It has improved but it's still not very good. You got this and all of you will be able to talk about Goodell handing the trophy to Brady blah blah blah...that's the main reason right there I'd like the Falcons to win, besides the others!

 

[Scoe]

The one thing hurting the Falcons is that they really have only one real pass rush threat in Beasely. If they can't get pressure with the front 4, it could be a long night on D for Atlanta.

The Giants beat the Pats (esp with regards to 2007), because those front 4 could get pressure, without needing to blitz. If you blitz, Brady will find the mismatch and burn you.

Their offense has a crapload of weapons though...Jones, Sanu, Gabriel, Hooper, Robinson, and two dynamic backs in Freeman and Coleman. Ryan is very accurate and patient. I'm not really sure what BB can do to stop them.

Absolutly, I just find it interesting that Kevin Faulk was one of the keys to stopping that Pats offense, rewatching that game aside from the Giants getting a pass rush, they also didnt allow any YAC from Faulk, Welker or Stallworth.

 

[Deepster]

The more I read, the more I think this game is going to be a Patriots rout. ATL has been blitzing a ton more in the postseason and a) Brady's the best against the blitz, maybe ever and b) if they DON'T blitz, they can't pressure him with a traditional rush. Suicide by gun or by poison, you choose.

Also read up on how the Pats have been using Dion Lewis to control tempo and going more no huddle or up tempo, then exploiting the nickel packages and tired Def Lineman with draws and quick swing passes out of the backfield. Two weeks to watch film? No way Quinn outmaneuvers Brady/Belichick.

Looks like I'll be watching something else in the 2nd half.....

 

[8893]

I also expect a Pats rout and am actually toying with the idea of making a major bet for the first time in decades.

Which means I must be wrong.

 

[intlzncster]

Absolutly, I just find it interesting that Kevin Faulk was one of the keys to stopping that Pats offense, rewatching that game aside from the Giants getting a pass rush, they also didnt allow any YAC from Faulk, Welker or Stallworth.

Faulk was underrated outside of New England. He turned into a fantastic all around player over his time with the Patriots. Definitely a key piece of the offense.

 

[Husky25]

 

[Scoe]

Faulk was underrated outside of New England. He turned into a fantastic all around player over his time with the Patriots. Definitely a key piece of the offense.

Very underrated

 

[Scoe]

Charles Barkley picked the Falcons ok now I know the Pats are gonna win.