Who wins the "big one?"
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Atlanta's offense is for real....but:
a) Belichick simply doesn't lose with 2 weeks to prepare.
b) Brady hates being pressured up the middle....and Atlanta is an edge rush team. They don't/can't rush him up the middle.
c) Most importantly, there are SB specific things that New England simply will take advantage of. Pregame gets players so amped up, the adrenaline then results in a letdown where they can get sluggish. NE knows how to manage that. Extended halftime disrupts the normal halftime prep. NE knows how to manage that. Those little things are invaluable.
New England in a walk. And it kills me to type that.
a) Belichick simply doesn't lose with 2 weeks to prepare.
b) Brady hates being pressured up the middle....and Atlanta is an edge rush team. They don't/can't rush him up the middle.
c) Most importantly, there are SB specific things that New England simply will take advantage of. Pregame gets players so amped up, the adrenaline then results in a letdown where they can get sluggish. NE knows how to manage that. Extended halftime disrupts the normal halftime prep. NE knows how to manage that. Those little things are invaluable.
New England in a walk. And it kills me to type that.
Husky25
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To be fair. Belichick is 3-2 with the Patriots in Super Bowls with a two week lead time (after the 2003, 2004, 2007, 2011, and 2014 seasons). 1-0 (2001) with only one week. He also won with the Giants after the 1990 season with only 1 week between games.
Interesting observation. Brady does have a tendency to step up on the pocket to avoid a rush, but he is also adept at side stepping it. The performance of the Patriots' Offensive line is head and shoulders above the one that got manhandled last year vs Denver. Plus David Andrews is a year more mature and can snap the ball on cadences other than first sound, which allowed Von Miller and the Denver D-Line to jump the count on almost every play.
IIRC, only Belichick and Brady have been around for all six Super Bowls. The Patriots certainly have the experience, being there just 2 years ago, but there are certainly new faces, who won't be prepared no matter how much they are prepared, if you get my meaning...
That said, I hope it's Patriots in a walk.
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a) I wasn't referring to just Super Bowls. Belichick is 12-4 after a bye since 2008. Since 2003, they're 20-4.
b) Aside from Denver, rewatch the 2 Giants Super Bowls. I don't think he's adept at sidestepping the rush at all. I think it's his one achilles heel.
c) Organizationally, they're going to be way, way more prepared for things like that. Where to stay. What to do the night before. Team rules. Timing. Media Day preparation. Limited distraction.
Husky25
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I will never re-watch those Giants games.
As a Redskins/Patriots fan, the Giants are more hated than the Cowboys.I agree that the Patriots are pretty good coming out of a bye, and they have a pretty dominating regular season record in those situations, but that record is also padded by beating some pretty sub-par teams in the regular season (Carolina '01, Buffalo '05-07 and '12, Dallas '15). Seven post bye week opponents ended that particular season with a winning record. The Patriots are 4-3 in those games and one of the wins was in overtime.
Be that as it may, I'm rooting for history and the chance for Tom Brady to potentially (probably won't) show up the Commissioner.
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I will never re-watch those Giants games.
I agree that the Patriots are pretty good coming out of a bye, and they have a pretty dominating regular season record in those situations, but that record is also padded by beating some pretty sub-par teams in the regular season (Carolina '01, Buffalo '05-07 and '12, Dallas '15). Seven post bye week opponents ended that particular season with a winning record. The Patriots are 4-3 in those games and one of the wins was in overtime.
Be that as it may, I'm rooting for history and the chance for Tom Brady to potentially (probably won't) show up the Commissioner.
Weird hate the Giants more than the Cowboys, you may be the only one. I know tons of Eagles, Skins, Giants fans and all of the east hates the 'Boys more than any other. But I guess the Pats/Giants thing comes in to play for you but still strange.
Ok here's my prediction and I'm with deep pretty much without the walk but a stroll. Think the offenses are pretty much equal but the Pats have the better coach for 2 weeks prep and a better overall defense which will be the difference. Atlanta and Quinn need to come up big in getting to Brady we've seen what that does. If they don't though they won't beat them. Pats by 6...but Lord knows would love to see it go the other way.
But most importantly like every year, the numbers on the squares at the local establishments mean more than the game itself by far.
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I think there's going to be a "just happy to be here" thing going with the Falcons. Quinn's 46 and this is only his second season as a head coach. While he was D coordinator for the two Super Bowl Seahawks team, this is a big step up. I think the moment gets to them, especially since, for all Ryan's brilliance this year, he hasn't been a clutch player.
Falcons need to go into halftime with the lead, or I think they're in trouble.
Falcons need to go into halftime with the lead, or I think they're in trouble.
Husky25
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Falcons owner Arthur Blank taking every employee to Houston
Isn't that sweet. The Patriots staffers be like Forrest Gump going to the White House with the Ping Pong Team.
They invited me and the accounting staff to the Super Bowl
So, I went, again.
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Put me in the homer camp, things are a buzz in ATL. Something about the Falcons this year. Defense gets better game by game, offense is one the best I've seen. If they put 2 guys on Julio, there are just so many other options. That said Atlanta can't make mistakes or they will lose. I'm going with ATL 34-31. Turnovers will obviously be huge.
Husky25
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P/GA First 8 games = 175 = 22 P/GA
P/GA Final 8 games = 231 = 29 P/GA
The improvement in terms of yardage (13 YPG) is almost negligible.
Atlanta's offense covered up a lot of defensive warts, IMO.
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Nitpicking, but Bryan Stork played center in the AFCCG in Denver last year. It was his pre-snap "head bob" that the Broncos defense keyed off of.
Regarding the game, someone in a different thread mentioned that Atlanta was the top offense in the league. I knew they were good, but I was a little surprised to see they outscored the second place team by 70 points and the Patriots by 100 (even though I'm told NE always runs up the score.) Clearly, the Falcons can move the ball and put up points. What might hurt them is that they have given up 37 sacks this season to 24 by NE.
Defensively, the Patriots were better stat-wise in the regular season, but the Falcons defense has performed well in the playoffs, allowing 5 points less per game than their regular season average.
This is an obvious take, but the team that avoids the big mistake, like Newton's sack/fumble for a TD last year, will probably win.
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They shut out Green Bay for a half. Seattle scored late the last game before that. Saints scored 19 fourth quarter points before that. If you mean the offense has been getting huge leads while Atlanta coasts to victory, I'll give you that.
For what it's worth, I've been a Pat's fan for years and have watched both teams all season long. I just think overall the Falcons have a better team. If Gronk was playing I'd think differently. NE definitely has the experience and the coach under the bright lights. We'll see if Matty Ice can keep it up. I'm not convinced and not putting money down. Hopefully it's a great game.
Husky25
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Just saw something that said the team with the best offense in the league is 1-5 in Super Bowls since 2000. Just putting it out there.
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Husky25
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Understood, but that is not what you said. You said Atlanta's D got better game by game. I'm just going by the numbers. No adjustments, conditions, or justifications and the numbers don't support that.
Be that as it may, I'm not on the Patriots' coaching staff and don't have to game plan against Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, or Devonta Freeman. That is their job and they are really good at it.
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Right and I'm someone who watched them play and saw their improvement that is an opinion based on observation and reason. If you look around the internet you'll find similar opinions and see there was a bunch of garbage points against Atlanta. They are not as good as New England's defense, that's not in dispute.
Atlanta has a really tough task, Patriots are awesome and are the favorite. The two super bowls they lost they would have won without a miraculous play by the Giants. Then again, one was a gift by Pete Carrol (which was epic).
I agree on the coaching staff, that's why I mentioned them in my post. You left out Gabriel, Coleman and Sanu for Pats to cover too...
Anyways. Go Falcons. If Pat's win, closer to dethroning Pitt as top dog. I'm a big Brady and Belichik fan. If it was Pitt v. Green Bay it would have been torture.
boba
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Seattle had fairly miraculous catch at the end too. It will be an exciting game, bit WR's other than Jones are not fear inspiring. That running duo is troubling though.
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Husky25
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Okay...What are you looking for in a reaction?
Are you looking for agreement? I can understand how you come to your opinion (and I've already expressed this), but I cannot agree with the assertion, given all the available evidence taken as a whole.
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Really was looking for no reaction, you quoted & responded, I retorted. We disagree. All good.
intlzncster
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I'm a NE fan, but let's face it, he has. Though usually to a tough tough D.
The way to be successful against Brady is to get to the QB with only 3 or 4 guys. Failing that, he's gonna find a mismatch in the secondary. I'm uncertain if Atlanta can do that. They are more speed than power oriented, so maybe.
Atlanta has a million weapons and an accurate, patient QB, and the Pats play a 'bend but don't break'. The D is going to be on the field a LONG time. That could be a big factor.
I think it's a toss up, who makes one more play type of game.
intlzncster
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One thing I read is: 2017 Super Bowl: Falcons owner Arthur Blank taking every employee to Houston
which while very very cool, also speaks to what you are talking about here. That's a circus. The Patriots will be all business, without question.
EDIT: haha Husky25 beat me to it.
intlzncster
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Sanu is a specimen man. Pats actually kicked the tires on him, but Atlanta was willing to shell out. It's paid off for them. One on one he's a tough cover because of his size.
And I've seen a lot of pluses from Coleman.
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20-4 after a bye since 2003. Not counting just Super Bowls. That probably bumps to like 23-6 counting those.
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Patriots were undefeated on the road this year. The Patriots defense is under rated. There is a myth that the Patriots were a bend but don't break defense this year. They were 8th overall in fewest yards allowed but per NFL network they allowed the fewest yards in the NFL in the second half of the season. They also allowed the fewest points in the NFL this season.
storrsroars
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The Pats do usually play close games in SBs and I don't think this will be any different. If I were a betting man, I'd take the under, which last I heard was around 57.5. I expect the Pats D to practice flooding passing lanes to JJ and otherwise follow Belichick's MO of shutting down the opponent's best player - in this case Jones.
Falcons' defense has given up more points than 23 NFL teams scored all season. They're certainly suspect. I don't think Brady will have issues with it, although I expect a more conservative game plan than their last two playoff games.
Patriots 27-Falcons 20.
Falcons' defense has given up more points than 23 NFL teams scored all season. They're certainly suspect. I don't think Brady will have issues with it, although I expect a more conservative game plan than their last two playoff games.
Patriots 27-Falcons 20.
intlzncster
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It's not a myth. It's simply a description of the defensive philosophy they employ, results aside. Overall, the Patriots focus on limiting big plays. They want their opponents to check down to the 3rd and 4th options, on whom they'll make a quick tackle--they are a very sound fundamental tackling team. The purpose of that is to force the opponent to sustain 15+ drives. The Patriots want to allow enough rope for their opponents to make mistakes. They're betting they can play more sound football than the opposition, and it usually works.
Atlanta is a different beast though. While the Pats D is definitely good, but they obviously haven't faced an offense like Atlanta's. They can take away Julio Jones and the run game, but Atlanta's 2nd, 3rd, 4th and even 5th options can kill you. Definitely capable of sustaining those long drives over and over again.
Note, part of the Pats yards stats is often a function of their offense sustaining drives of their own, and getting superior field position.
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intlzncster
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True, and that stat is valid, but the team they are facing in the Superbowl is always one of the best teams in the NFL. The impact of that stat is mitigated as a result.
HuskyHawk
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It's a very interesting game. While the Falcons have a solid defense, it's nowhere near as good as Houston's and the Patriots just put up 34 on Houston. The real key is whether Atlanta can stop New England. If they can, then this will be a 3 point game.
New England's defense is good enough to slow down Atlanta, and will make things difficult for them. They can't stop them. Atlanta will score at least 24 points in my opinion. I'm excited to see the flow of the game. Which team has field position advantages? One of the keys to the NE defense is that the offense has so few three and outs. So you are mostly starting inside your 30. Both teams will need to be able to go 80 yards to get TDs. If either D pitches a 3 and out and gets its offense the ball around the 40 or closer, that team is likely going to score.
New England has advantages in experience and so on, but that doesn't always matter. My prediction. New England 34 Atlanta 27.
New England's defense is good enough to slow down Atlanta, and will make things difficult for them. They can't stop them. Atlanta will score at least 24 points in my opinion. I'm excited to see the flow of the game. Which team has field position advantages? One of the keys to the NE defense is that the offense has so few three and outs. So you are mostly starting inside your 30. Both teams will need to be able to go 80 yards to get TDs. If either D pitches a 3 and out and gets its offense the ball around the 40 or closer, that team is likely going to score.
New England has advantages in experience and so on, but that doesn't always matter. My prediction. New England 34 Atlanta 27.
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