What separates No. 2 Mississippi State from No. 1 UConn in women's college basketball?

[Centerstream]

That would be unfair to the #3 team.

Agree 100% but it is the NCAA

 

[bballnut90]

UConn — which has five wins against currently ranked teams, including No. 6 Texas and No. 5 Notre Dame — leads the country in points per game and field-goal percentage while MSU ranks No. 5 and No. 10, respectively, in those categories. Defensively, though, there is a wider difference; UConn holds opposing teams to 32.8 percent from the field, and MSU’s mark is 38.5 percent. UConn has the edge in other statistics, too, but MSU does commit fewer turnovers.

A strong case can be made for either team, and while the Bulldogs certainly deserve a look, no one here is debating UConn as completely deserving of the No. 1 ranking. But all 32 votes in one direction? It is at least worth discussing — given last year’s result and MSU’s résumé this season — how much name recognition (or lack thereof) factors into the current separation in the poll.

“All I’ll say is that we’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing,” Vic Schaefer said. “I know how hard my kids work, and I do think we still battle the respect factor a little bit across the country.”

[Article]

I still think of last year's upset as somewhat of a miracle game when you consider that UCONN really just didn't play well and Mississippi State was hitting every good look in the first half. If they played 10 more times, I'd bet big money on UCONN winning every matchup. UCONN was the better team last year despite the result.

This year however, Mississippi State is MUCH improved from a year ago, while I don't think UCONN is playing as well as they did this time last year. They're on an equal playing field now IMO. Mississippi State is still less talented than UCONN but players seem to know their roles better. I think Mississippi State as a team plays with more confidence than UCONN does right now. At UCONN, there's no question the players are more talented, but there isn't anyone stepping up and consistently scoring 15ppg every single night. Players will have big nights and then disappear for a game here and there. That didn't happen much last year-- you knew you'd get big production from the big 3 night in night out, Nurse would fill her role and Chong would do a good job at PG. This year has been marked by more inconsistent play compared to a year ago.

We'll see how Mississippi State does the rest of the SEC season, but if they were to play tomorrow I think it'd be a toss up. I'd probably pick UCONN to win on a neutral court since they are more talented and the players on the roster will be hungry for revenge, but it'd be a tough call.


I am curious to see what happens come tournament time in regards to who gets #1 overall if both are undefeated. I'd be very surprised if it went to anyone other than UCONN (they've been the #1 team entering the tournament 8 of the last 10 years), but both teams would have strong cases. I do not think there'll be a significant advantage for the #1 over the #2. Baylor/Notre Dame/Louisville are all formidable teams when they play well and could easily upset either Connecticut or Mississippi State. If I'm Geno, I wouldn't have a major preference playing Baylor vs. Notre Dame....both would be difficult matchups regardless.

 

[HuskylnSC]

If the two teams were to meet up again this year mission number 1 for UCONN is to make Morgan William uncomfortable.
William was not defended on 1 single possession until after she had crossed half court in the FF game. Even more so than last year the MSU is heavily dependent on Willian in the half court sets. Molly Bent or Mikayla Coombs must emerge as an adequate on ball defender that is capable of 10 quality minutes of defense per game. Kia Nurse will have her hands filled with Vivians and Crystal is getting there but she will eventually need a break. Only Gabby among the starters is capable of this on ball defense but she will be needed to help out with the post defense.

The first thought about Morgan William, who I think does a terrific job, is who would I rather face opposite me. Crystal or Saniya? I have thoughts because Saniya was no push over.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Don't think UConn beats Baylor or Miss St without getting last year's Gabby and Collier back, but it looks like those players are what they are at this point.

 

[HuskylnSC]

My 2 biggest concerns about the Tournament are one hip and one ankle.

Has anyone noticed Gabby floating to the rim on layups and not exploding up to the rim. Also I think on that left handed drive from the foul line, she has been releasing the ball farther from the hoop. I am very concerned for her health going forward. I'm sure the staff knows more than me and I trust them.

Lou's ankle seems to be able to go at any moment with much provocation.

tell me I am an old worry wart

 

[oldude]

Agree 100% but it is the NCAA

The tournament selection committee is not the NCAA. It’s made up of former basketball coaches and AD’s who know the teams and work very hard to get it right. While there’s always some measure of disagreement by supporters of respective schools, the committee does a reasonably good job overall IMO.

 

[eebmg]

I still think of last year's upset as somewhat of a miracle game when you consider that UCONN really just didn't play well and Mississippi State was hitting every good look in the first half. If they played 10 more times, I'd bet big money on UCONN winning every matchup. UCONN was the better team last year despite the result.

This year however, Mississippi State is MUCH improved from a year ago, while I don't think UCONN is playing as well as they did this time last year. They're on an equal playing field now IMO. Mississippi State is still less talented than UCONN but players seem to know their roles better. I think Mississippi State as a team plays with more confidence than UCONN does right now. At UCONN, there's no question the players are more talented, but there isn't anyone stepping up and consistently scoring 15ppg every single night. Players will have big nights and then disappear for a game here and there. That didn't happen much last year-- you knew you'd get big production from the big 3 night in night out, Nurse would fill her role and Chong would do a good job at PG. This year has been marked by more inconsistent play compared to a year ago.

We'll see how Mississippi State does the rest of the SEC season, but if they were to play tomorrow I think it'd be a toss up. I'd probably pick UCONN to win on a neutral court since they are more talented and the players on the roster will be hungry for revenge, but it'd be a tough call.


I am curious to see what happens come tournament time in regards to who gets #1 overall if both are undefeated. I'd be very surprised if it went to anyone other than UCONN (they've been the #1 team entering the tournament 8 of the last 10 years), but both teams would have strong cases. I do not think there'll be a significant advantage for the #1 over the #2. Baylor/Notre Dame/Louisville are all formidable teams when they play well and could easily upset either Connecticut or Mississippi State. If I'm Geno, I wouldn't have a major preference playing Baylor vs. Notre Dame....both would be difficult matchups regardless.

I agree Miss St is much improved and we may or not be better than last year since we have not completely integrated Z and MW yet but that should come by tournament time. The wording you use about players disappearing in games is hardly accurate. Unlike last year where Crystal / Saniya were not a real scoring threat and Kia was not as offensively minded as this year, we now have 6 bonafide players who can be counted on to score double figures just about every night with some 20 pt efforts for icing. We don't need Napheesa / Lou to go off for 20 every game. With MW potentially becoming a 20 mpg contributor, that is probably 7. This is the highest form of UConn basketball. The jazz band Geno refers to where all players play in concert until a solo effort comes to the fore for a little while and then reconnects with the background song. And Crystal as the conductor.

I have no worries about our offense. We can score against anyone (Baylor / Miss U included) and our improved diversity will be an asset. The defense and potential foul situation concern me although the improvement of our bench makes me a little less concerned about foul trouble and improvement in defense by crystal who looks more like Moriah every day is a nice development.

 

[JoePgh]

It would be unreasonable for UCONN to be #3 overall in that scenario because UCONN would have beaten the team (UCLA) that gave Baylor it's only loss among the three teams. It wouldn't be reasonable for UCONN to be #2 overall but of little real consequences because of the geography of regional finals. The committee would have to be suicidal or really really bad business people to put either Baylor or MSU in the Albany region. The other practically insignificant difference would be the placement of the 7th best team in UCONN bracket vs the 8th best =small potatoes. Assuming the brackets hold up at the FF UCONN would also be playing the 3rd best team vs the 4th best but the FF is on neutral ground for everyone. Obviously in the Championship game the only practical difference is will UCONN be wearing white or American flag Blue. UCONN has never lost in the championship game wearing either color= smaller potatoes.

If you assume that these (UConn, Miss State, Baylor) are the three best teams, then it definitely does make a difference who gets the #1 seed. The #2 and #3 seeds will probably have to defeat both of the other two top teams to win an NC, whereas the #1 seed will certainly only have to defeat one of them.

I recognize the current relative SOS numbers, but I would expect those to be different after the rest of the season and the conference tournaments, and not in UConn's favor. Both Baylor and Mississippi State will probably have to defeat one and maybe two Top 10 teams to win their respective conference tournaments, which is not the case with UConn.

 

[oldude]

My 2 biggest concerns about the Tournament are one hip and one ankle.

Has anyone noticed Gabby floating to the rim on layups and not exploding up to the rim. Also I think on that left handed drive from the foul line, she has been releasing the ball farther from the hoop. I am very concerned for her health going forward. I'm sure the staff knows more than me and I trust them.

Lou's ankle seems to be able to go at any moment with much provocation.

tell me I am an old worry wart

Ditto. Hoping they get healthy by the Big Dance.

 

[eebmg]

Ditto. Hoping they get healthy by the Big Dance.

That would be nice but unlikely. It is clear that there are no games off for Lou, Gabby and Crystal to nurse nagging conditions. This is not Geno's way. The best we can hope for is some reduction in minutes and that the players can manage to push through these ailments. I am confident that they can.

 

[CocoHusky]

If you assume that these (UConn, Miss State, Baylor) are the three best teams, then it definitely does make a difference who gets the #1 seed. The #2 and #3 seeds will probably have to defeat both of the other two top teams to win an NC, whereas the #1 seed will certainly only have to defeat one of them.

I didn't say it would not make a difference, I said it would be a "practically insignificant difference".
Literally & "potentially" if you are number 1 you would have to beat the #2 and #4: if you are #2 you would have to beat #1 and #3. ALL of hese games are played on a neutral floor, therefore no home court advantage. Geno puts it much simpler and better. "To advance to the championship you are going to hae to beat a really really good team."

 

[HopJim]

UConn becomes #1 seed because of historical reasons. It has won 11 national championships. It has been to 10 straight .
I just hope NCAA does not put Baylor in our bracket as the 8th or the 9th overall seed.

Interesting conversation. Would rate it 50-50 whether you go with strength of schedule (particularly if its close) versus who won in last year's NCAA's.

 

[SVCBeercats]

According to Massey, UConn's SOS is #2, MissState's is #12 and Baylor's is #8.
According to Sagarin, UConn's SOS is #5, MissState's is #35 and Baylor's is #30.
According to RPIratings, UConn's SOS is #3, MissState's is #15 and Baylor's is #85.
If all 3 teams win out, what would be the argument for making either school a higher seed than UConn?

Only the NCAA's RPI calculation matters. Currently, as of 1/26/2018, The NCAA's RPI standings have UCONN #1, Miss St #3, and Baylor #10. If they all "win out," it does not mean they will remain in this order. Since 75% of their RPI comes from their opponents' records (2/3) and their Opponents' Opponents' records (1/3), their standings could change. If both UCONN and Miss ST go undefeated and Miss St's RPI is sufficiently higher due to the records of the SEC opponents etc. versus UCONN's AAC opponents etc., then Miss St may eke out the #1 seed. It is not overly probable but possible.

 

[bballnut90]

If you assume that these (UConn, Miss State, Baylor) are the three best teams, then it definitely does make a difference who gets the #1 seed. The #2 and #3 seeds will probably have to defeat both of the other two top teams to win an NC, whereas the #1 seed will certainly only have to defeat one of them.

I recognize the current relative SOS numbers, but I would expect those to be different after the rest of the season and the conference tournaments, and not in UConn's favor. Both Baylor and Mississippi State will probably have to defeat one and maybe two Top 10 teams to win their respective conference tournaments, which is not the case with UConn.

I think it’s too early to assume those are the 3 best teams. Not saying you’re assuming this but thought it was worth adding in.

If Louisville comes motivated they could beat down anyone. Notre Dame on a good day could beat any of those teams. Heck, Texas nearly beat UCONN and could easily win the next 2 against Baylor if their guards show up and Holmes gets up to speed. South Carolina with a healthy Wilson her senior year will be a tough out, and on a bad day anyone could lose to Tennessee or Oregon. The last couple of years it looked like there were very clear final four favorites in Baylor and Notre Dame, and both years neither team made it. It’s fun to think hypotheticals and analyze this. That said, it does look like it’s a more competitive landscape this year than it has the last several. Anyone can be upset if they have an off night in the regionals.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I think it’s too early to assume those are the 3 best teams. Not saying you’re assuming this but thought it was worth adding in.

If Louisville comes motivated they could beat down anyone. Notre Dame on a good day could beat any of those teams. Heck, Texas nearly beat UCONN and could easily win the next 2 against Baylor if their guards show up and Holmes gets up to speed. South Carolina with a healthy Wilson her senior year will be a tough out, and on a bad day anyone could lose to Tennessee or Oregon. The last couple of years it looked like there were very clear final four favorites in Baylor and Notre Dame, and both years neither team made it. It’s fun to think hypotheticals and analyze this. That said, it does look like it’s a more competitive landscape this year than it has the last several. Anyone can be upset if they have an off night in the regionals.

Kind of crazy to say the women's title is wide open this year, because in reality it's maybe 5 or 6 teams with a legitimate shot. I guess that's progress though.

 

[bballnut90]

Kind of crazy to say the women's title is wide open this year, because in reality it's maybe 5 or 6 teams with a legitimate shot. I guess that's progress though.

Well, wide open compared to the last decade or so where you’ve had UCONN (or Baylor for 2 years) as the overwhelming favorite entering every tournament. UCONN will still likely be the overwhelming favorite again, but they look beatable compared to the previous versions.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Well, wide open compared to the last decade or so where you’ve had UCONN (or Baylor for 2 years) as the overwhelming favorite entering every tournament. UCONN will still likely be the overwhelming favorite again, but they look beatable compared to the previous versions.

How can you say UCONN is the overwhelming favorite but they look beatable? That makes no sense to me. I agree UCONN is beatable, and the part I disagree with is the overwhelming favorite. Says who?

 

[baggerbob]

The coaches daughter is the 3 pt shooter, and she has to guard Kia, she won't be in that game very long, she is only 5-7, not big or fast enough.

 

[HuskyNan]

I agree Miss St is much improved and we may or not be better than last year since we have not completely integrated Z and MW yet but that should come by tournament time. The wording you use about players disappearing in games is hardly accurate. Unlike last year where Crystal / Saniya were not a real scoring threat and Kia was not as offensively minded as this year, we now have 6 bonafide players who can be counted on to score double figures just about every night with some 20 pt efforts for icing. We don't need Napheesa / Lou to go off for 20 every game. With MW potentially becoming a 20 mpg contributor, that is probably 7. This is the highest form of UConn basketball. The jazz band Geno refers to where all players play in concert until a solo effort comes to the fore for a little while and then reconnects with the background song. And Crystal as the conductor.

I have no worries about our offense. We can score against anyone (Baylor / Miss U included) and our improved diversity will be an asset. The defense and potential foul situation concern me although the improvement of our bench makes me a little less concerned about foul trouble and improvement in defense by crystal who looks more like Moriah every day is a nice development.

Offensively, the confident Meg we’ve seen the last couple games could easily go off for 15-20 points. Defenders are not going to slack off Lou or Kia to guard Meg so she will get open looks. Her improved decision making and patience on offense gives me hope she could make defenders pay for leaving her open.

 

[Tonyc]

Im not really concerned about Baylor or Miss St. UConn player for player is much better. Last season UConn played terrible and lost to Miss St. This season that wont happen. I like our guards much better and how will any team defend Stevens one on one??? Miss St and Baylor have both gotten better however UConn has gotten alot better. Aint happenin. Really not worried. We most likely wont win by 20+ but UConn will win if we meet. Miss St imo is the second best team in WCBB. Baylor appears to be top 4 as does ND. I will leave it at that.

 

[Huskyfaninsd]

I think some few to forget a few things: 1) Our team has yet to peak and I rather have them peaking in March than Jan or February, 2) it’s hard to compare scores and games when UConn clearly has to play with the target on their back. I believe Texas was extra motivated to beat us, and were at home. Texas’ previously didn’t play good in their last games but in our game, their offense was clicking on all cylinders (for at least a few quarters) 3) What are the other teams going to do to defend UConn. We arguably have 6 All Americans! 4) I find it very funny that all this talk happen after Miss State beat Tenn, really? Tenn won at SC because Wilson was out. Tenn lost to a depleted ND (and far more depleted than when we played them) team. Tenn lost to Texas A&M. Don’t get me wrong...Tenn look better than last year but they haven’t really beat anyone that good. Who else has Miss State beat that’s actually good?

 

[bballnut90]

How can you say UCONN is the overwhelming favorite but they look beatable? That makes no sense to me. I agree UCONN is beatable, and the part I disagree with is the overwhelming favorite. Says who?

Says most fans in women's basketball. Everyone is chasing UCONN once again. Announcers the other day were just talking about it's more important to avoid the deathly UCONN regional than it is to worry about what seed you have entering the tournament.

You don't have to be unbeatable to be the overwhelming title favorite. Golden State has lost many games this year, but they'll still be the heavy favorite come playoff time. In the NCAA tournament anything can happen, but come tournament time when seeds are announced and the experts make their championship picks, I'll be stunned if any "expert" predicts a team other than UCONN winning it all. You'll also see a large majority of fan brackets predict UCONN winning it all, and Vegas odds will be heavily stacked against anyone but UCONN winning it all. That's what makes them the overwhelming favorite.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Says most fans in women's basketball. Everyone is chasing UCONN once again. Announcers the other day were just talking about it's more important to avoid the deathly UCONN regional than it is to worry about what seed you have entering the tournament.

You don't have to be unbeatable to be the overwhelming title favorite. Golden State has lost many games this year, but they'll still be the heavy favorite come playoff time. In the NCAA tournament anything can happen, but come tournament time when seeds are announced and the experts make their championship picks, I'll be stunned if any "expert" predicts a team other than UCONN winning it all. You'll also see a large majority of fan brackets predict UCONN winning it all, and Vegas odds will be heavily stacked against anyone but UCONN winning it all. That's what makes them the overwhelming favorite.

UConn was the favorite last year, and look how that turned out. There are good teams on par with UConn this year, so I can't say any one of them are the favorites. Baylor could win it. So could Miss St. ND could too because they have Coach McGraw. Louisville could with their talent. There's probably 5 or 6 teams this season that all equally have a shot.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Don't think UConn beats Baylor or Miss St without getting last year's Gabby and Collier back, but it looks like those players are what they are at this point.

Your OPINION has some merit. Collier has not returned to last March Form, Gabby is hurting . hea
The addition of Azura, in my opinion, mixed up the chemistry a bit. I see a bright light in that Z is working well with Collier in the last game or 2. Gabby is playing with pain--I have no doubt--but I'd rather have this Gabby than none. (Personally I'd rather no pain for any UCWBB players).
I differ with you in that I think a healthy and out of foul trouble AZ is the key to success, as long as Uconn has it's core 4 plus Danger

 

[GoCardinal]

Baylor should definitely be involved in the conversation. Would MS State be able to defeat Baylor if they were to meet? Baylor has Kalani Brown AND Lauren Cox. No other team has that kind of size and skill in the post. In the Tennessee-MS State game, the only thing that stopped Russell was actually Tennessee. I’d be interesting to see how they’d try guarding Cox and Brown.

 

[HuskylnSC]

Offensively, the confident Meg we’ve seen the last couple games could easily go off for 15-20 points. Defenders are not going to slack off Lou or Kia to guard Meg so she will get open looks. Her improved decision making and patience on offense gives me hope she could make defenders pay for leaving her open.

I think most of us are very happy with Meg's improvement and we gleefully now count to 7 "trust worthy" players. But she is a wing and the missing component is a backup ball handler. Geno has mentioned several times how he needs one of the guards to step up and become a capable defender.

I hear you that you are confident to win the NC, as I also am. But tell me this, how confident are we in a scenario where Crystal is significantly slowed by her splints and Kia get 3 quick fouls. Your next best ball handler is KLS. I have been looking for MC or MB to step up defensively and become a stopper. Then I will be very very confident

 

[Carnac]

I think it’s too early to assume those are the 3 best teams. Not saying you’re assuming this but thought it was worth adding in.

If Louisville comes motivated they could beat down anyone. Notre Dame on a good day could beat any of those teams. Heck, Texas nearly beat UCONN and could easily win the next 2 against Baylor if their guards show up and Holmes gets up to speed. South Carolina with a healthy Wilson her senior year will be a tough out, and on a bad day anyone could lose to Tennessee or Oregon. The last couple of years it looked like there were very clear final four favorites in Baylor and Notre Dame, and both years neither team made it. It’s fun to think hypotheticals and analyze this. That said, it does look like it’s a more competitive landscape this year than it has the last several. Anyone can be upset if they have an off night in the regionals.

Good points. I remind yarders every year. Watch out for the "Dark Horse(s). They show up EVERY YEAR, but no one recognizes them as such until it's too late.
Last year, Mississippi State and Oregon were dark horses. When the brackets were announced, no one thought or said that either of these teams would go as far as they did. Look at the high seeded and favored teams they knocked out along the way. They put together a good run of "A" games. Your opponent does not care what you did, or what your record was during the regular season.

They enter the game figuring they can beat you, then go about trying to do just that. Sometimes they do. Ask Baylor, and UConn. Two #1 seeds sent home by Mississippi State. Any team that makes the tournament makes it because they (in most cases) proved they deserve to be in the field of 64, based on the criteria used by the selection committee. All of the weak teams are gone after the first weekend. HoopsFan21 said: "Kind of crazy to say the women's title is wide open this year, because in reality it's maybe 5 or 6 teams with a legitimate shot. I guess that's progress though". Fans wanted parity, last year they got it. They'll get it again this year too. UConn may win, but it's not going to be easy, for any team. Getting to the final four will be just half the battle.

The first two games are merely warm ups for the top ranked teams. For them, the tournament begins the second weekend, because this is where most of the "upsets" occur. This is where Notre Dame, and Baylor got knocked out the last two years. As others have mentioned, there are about 5-6 teams that could legitimately win the tournament. Every team needs to go into this year's tournament with their eyes w-i-d-e open, and their "A" games in tow, because only four teams will survive to the final weekend. Geno has often said that (in his opinion) the regional final is the hardest game of the tournament. Some very good teams won't make it. Some very good (and favored) teams were sent home last year during that 2nd weekend.

 

[FanFromMaine]

Im not really concerned about Baylor or Miss St. UConn player for player is much better. Last season UConn played terrible and lost to Miss St. This season that wont happen. I like our guards much better and how will any team defend Stevens one on one??? Miss St and Baylor have both gotten better however UConn has gotten alot better. Aint happenin. Really not worried. We most likely wont win by 20+ but UConn will win if we meet. Miss St imo is the second best team in WCBB. Baylor appears to be top 4 as does ND. I will leave it at that.

I agree with you Tonyc. I'm not much worried about the competition. If UConn continues to mature, they will win it all regardless of the opponent. The have the combination of more fire power and better defense than any other team I've seen this year.

The addition of Crystal, Z and Megan to the returning starters, as others have said, is still an adjustment, as it should be. And I would love to see a third guard become available. But UConn has something they lacked last season, a reliable point guard. I thought Saniya did great but this was really her first year at the point. As the conventional wisdom goes, you don't win an NC without a seasoned point. SC has one as does MissSt but the reamaining teams have newbies or converted 2 guards.

 

[ricky]

No one knows yet but a key separation could be Z's ability to stand strong against their bigs. If that isn't there, then I believe Collier would be in foul trouble trying to get that done. At that point, it's becomes a slaughter in the paint.

 

[Centerstream]

No one knows yet but a key separation could be Z's ability to stand strong against their bigs. If that isn't there, then I believe Collier would be in foul trouble trying to get that done. At that point, it's becomes a slaughter in the paint.

Based upon her defense so far this year (or lack of it), I don't see Z being able to stand strong against anyone's bigs. Or maybe I need to look at some game replays where there was at least one big and see how she performed. But based upon my current recollection, I don't think she was a factor.