What separates No. 2 Mississippi State from No. 1 UConn in women's college basketball?

[oldude]

Agreed. But who will be #4? I am guessing that it might be SC or ND which means a team #1 has met in the regular season. Would the NCAA do that? (I know this is not part of the OP,but...)

Yes, the NCAA would do that. They circle seed 1-16, so if UConn is #1 and all the favorites advance, UConn would face #16 in the Sweet 16, #8 in the Elite 8, #4 in the semifinal and #2 in the final. Of course upsets are more frequent these days.

 

[EricLA]

I would suggest that you are missing the coaching- I thought the game plan by Mississippi State in the semifinal was brilliant, and SchaEfer isn’t going anywhere. Consider the 1991 Huskies- where were those players ranked? And through the early 90’s- with the exception of Lobo, CT players weren’t highly ranked. And yet, they won consistently. I still believe a cheap shot by Tonya Sampson of NC against Risotti that causing her to sit out a while changed the outcome of that game- CT was good enough to win that year. So it comes down to coaching. Obviously it helps getting the quality players Geno recruits, but the ability to read a recruit for their future value and the ability to draw out a player’s best is one of Coach Auriemma’s finest qualities. I respect Schaefer a lot- he also knew how to use that 60 point loss as a major motivation, and we failed to see that coming. That’s why they play the games.

How good would UCONN be with JUST Azura, and then a team comprised of Megan Gardler, Cassie Kerns, Tahirah Williams, Michala Johnson, Lauren Engeln, Courtney Ekmark, Lexi Gordon, AEH, etc? Because that's about what Vic will have next year. I don't dispute that he's a terrific coach, but he loses 4 starters, and these are 4 elite players.

Our reserves have just begun to hold their own against some of the dregs of the American conference. How do you think They would fare against any other top 25 team? That was my point. And I think most of us can agree that Geno is the best coach in the game, but with a roster like I listed above, even Geno would probably be only be several games above .500. And that's playing in our conference. Miss State is in the SEC - they will be in the lower half IMHO.

If not, then I would say he should be considered for COY. Unless I'm missing something on his roster, they are taking an enormous step back next season, and they have no real help on the horizon...

 

[JoePgh]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

 

[trb123]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

UConn becomes #1 seed because of historical reasons. It has won 11 national championships. It has been to 10 straight .
I just hope NCAA does not put Baylor in our bracket as the 8th or the 9th overall seed.

 

[Centerstream]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

UConn being undefeated guarantees them the #1 seed based upon their OOC schedule. Baylor's OOC schedule is a joke by design and it's served it's purpose. MSU if undefeated will be #2 due to their SEC dominance.

 

[Centerstream]

Yes, the NCAA would do that. They circle seed 1-16, so if UConn is #1 and all the favorites advance, UConn would face #16 in the Sweet 16, #8 in the Elite 8, #4 in the semifinal and #2 in the final. Of course upsets are more frequent these days.

I understand that. But my question was more along the lines of would the NCAA flip flop 3 and 4 because of the in season meeting. Based upon the past, I guess the answer is No.

 

[Crossover]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

1. I've never thought that the Devil needed an advocate.
2. Your question is a good one, even if advanced by an angel.

 

[oldude]

I understand that. But my question was more along the lines of would the NCAA flip flop 3 and 4 because of the in season meeting. Based upon the past, I guess the answer is No.

That would be unfair to the #3 team.

 

[CocoHusky]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

It would be unreasonable for UCONN to be #3 overall in that scenario because UCONN would have beaten the team (UCLA) that gave Baylor it's only loss among the three teams. It wouldn't be reasonable for UCONN to be #2 overall but of little real consequences because of the geography of regional finals. The committee would have to be suicidal or really really bad business people to put either Baylor or MSU in the Albany region. The other practically insignificant difference would be the placement of the 7th best team in UCONN bracket vs the 8th best =small potatoes. Assuming the brackets hold up at the FF UCONN would also be playing the 3rd best team vs the 4th best but the FF is on neutral ground for everyone. Obviously in the Championship game the only practical difference is will UCONN be wearing white or American flag Blue. UCONN has never lost in the championship game wearing either color= smaller potatoes.

 

[UConnCat]

According to Massey, UConn's SOS is #2, MissState's is #12 and Baylor's is #8.
According to Sagarin, UConn's SOS is #5, MissState's is #35 and Baylor's is #30.
According to RPIratings, UConn's SOS is #3, MissState's is #15 and Baylor's is #85.

If all 3 teams win out, what would be the argument for making either school a higher seed than UConn?

 

[Centerstream]

That would be unfair to the #3 team.

Agree 100% but it is the NCAA

 

[bballnut90]

UConn — which has five wins against currently ranked teams, including No. 6 Texas and No. 5 Notre Dame — leads the country in points per game and field-goal percentage while MSU ranks No. 5 and No. 10, respectively, in those categories. Defensively, though, there is a wider difference; UConn holds opposing teams to 32.8 percent from the field, and MSU’s mark is 38.5 percent. UConn has the edge in other statistics, too, but MSU does commit fewer turnovers.

A strong case can be made for either team, and while the Bulldogs certainly deserve a look, no one here is debating UConn as completely deserving of the No. 1 ranking. But all 32 votes in one direction? It is at least worth discussing — given last year’s result and MSU’s résumé this season — how much name recognition (or lack thereof) factors into the current separation in the poll.

“All I’ll say is that we’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing,” Vic Schaefer said. “I know how hard my kids work, and I do think we still battle the respect factor a little bit across the country.”

[Article]

I still think of last year's upset as somewhat of a miracle game when you consider that UCONN really just didn't play well and Mississippi State was hitting every good look in the first half. If they played 10 more times, I'd bet big money on UCONN winning every matchup. UCONN was the better team last year despite the result.

This year however, Mississippi State is MUCH improved from a year ago, while I don't think UCONN is playing as well as they did this time last year. They're on an equal playing field now IMO. Mississippi State is still less talented than UCONN but players seem to know their roles better. I think Mississippi State as a team plays with more confidence than UCONN does right now. At UCONN, there's no question the players are more talented, but there isn't anyone stepping up and consistently scoring 15ppg every single night. Players will have big nights and then disappear for a game here and there. That didn't happen much last year-- you knew you'd get big production from the big 3 night in night out, Nurse would fill her role and Chong would do a good job at PG. This year has been marked by more inconsistent play compared to a year ago.

We'll see how Mississippi State does the rest of the SEC season, but if they were to play tomorrow I think it'd be a toss up. I'd probably pick UCONN to win on a neutral court since they are more talented and the players on the roster will be hungry for revenge, but it'd be a tough call.


I am curious to see what happens come tournament time in regards to who gets #1 overall if both are undefeated. I'd be very surprised if it went to anyone other than UCONN (they've been the #1 team entering the tournament 8 of the last 10 years), but both teams would have strong cases. I do not think there'll be a significant advantage for the #1 over the #2. Baylor/Notre Dame/Louisville are all formidable teams when they play well and could easily upset either Connecticut or Mississippi State. If I'm Geno, I wouldn't have a major preference playing Baylor vs. Notre Dame....both would be difficult matchups regardless.

 

[HuskylnSC]

If the two teams were to meet up again this year mission number 1 for UCONN is to make Morgan William uncomfortable.
William was not defended on 1 single possession until after she had crossed half court in the FF game. Even more so than last year the MSU is heavily dependent on Willian in the half court sets. Molly Bent or Mikayla Coombs must emerge as an adequate on ball defender that is capable of 10 quality minutes of defense per game. Kia Nurse will have her hands filled with Vivians and Crystal is getting there but she will eventually need a break. Only Gabby among the starters is capable of this on ball defense but she will be needed to help out with the post defense.

The first thought about Morgan William, who I think does a terrific job, is who would I rather face opposite me. Crystal or Saniya? I have thoughts because Saniya was no push over.

 

[HoopsFan21]

Don't think UConn beats Baylor or Miss St without getting last year's Gabby and Collier back, but it looks like those players are what they are at this point.

 

[HuskylnSC]

My 2 biggest concerns about the Tournament are one hip and one ankle.

Has anyone noticed Gabby floating to the rim on layups and not exploding up to the rim. Also I think on that left handed drive from the foul line, she has been releasing the ball farther from the hoop. I am very concerned for her health going forward. I'm sure the staff knows more than me and I trust them.

Lou's ankle seems to be able to go at any moment with much provocation.

tell me I am an old worry wart

 

[oldude]

Agree 100% but it is the NCAA

The tournament selection committee is not the NCAA. It’s made up of former basketball coaches and AD’s who know the teams and work very hard to get it right. While there’s always some measure of disagreement by supporters of respective schools, the committee does a reasonably good job overall IMO.

 

[eebmg]

I still think of last year's upset as somewhat of a miracle game when you consider that UCONN really just didn't play well and Mississippi State was hitting every good look in the first half. If they played 10 more times, I'd bet big money on UCONN winning every matchup. UCONN was the better team last year despite the result.

This year however, Mississippi State is MUCH improved from a year ago, while I don't think UCONN is playing as well as they did this time last year. They're on an equal playing field now IMO. Mississippi State is still less talented than UCONN but players seem to know their roles better. I think Mississippi State as a team plays with more confidence than UCONN does right now. At UCONN, there's no question the players are more talented, but there isn't anyone stepping up and consistently scoring 15ppg every single night. Players will have big nights and then disappear for a game here and there. That didn't happen much last year-- you knew you'd get big production from the big 3 night in night out, Nurse would fill her role and Chong would do a good job at PG. This year has been marked by more inconsistent play compared to a year ago.

We'll see how Mississippi State does the rest of the SEC season, but if they were to play tomorrow I think it'd be a toss up. I'd probably pick UCONN to win on a neutral court since they are more talented and the players on the roster will be hungry for revenge, but it'd be a tough call.


I am curious to see what happens come tournament time in regards to who gets #1 overall if both are undefeated. I'd be very surprised if it went to anyone other than UCONN (they've been the #1 team entering the tournament 8 of the last 10 years), but both teams would have strong cases. I do not think there'll be a significant advantage for the #1 over the #2. Baylor/Notre Dame/Louisville are all formidable teams when they play well and could easily upset either Connecticut or Mississippi State. If I'm Geno, I wouldn't have a major preference playing Baylor vs. Notre Dame....both would be difficult matchups regardless.

I agree Miss St is much improved and we may or not be better than last year since we have not completely integrated Z and MW yet but that should come by tournament time. The wording you use about players disappearing in games is hardly accurate. Unlike last year where Crystal / Saniya were not a real scoring threat and Kia was not as offensively minded as this year, we now have 6 bonafide players who can be counted on to score double figures just about every night with some 20 pt efforts for icing. We don't need Napheesa / Lou to go off for 20 every game. With MW potentially becoming a 20 mpg contributor, that is probably 7. This is the highest form of UConn basketball. The jazz band Geno refers to where all players play in concert until a solo effort comes to the fore for a little while and then reconnects with the background song. And Crystal as the conductor.

I have no worries about our offense. We can score against anyone (Baylor / Miss U included) and our improved diversity will be an asset. The defense and potential foul situation concern me although the improvement of our bench makes me a little less concerned about foul trouble and improvement in defense by crystal who looks more like Moriah every day is a nice development.

 

[JoePgh]

It would be unreasonable for UCONN to be #3 overall in that scenario because UCONN would have beaten the team (UCLA) that gave Baylor it's only loss among the three teams. It wouldn't be reasonable for UCONN to be #2 overall but of little real consequences because of the geography of regional finals. The committee would have to be suicidal or really really bad business people to put either Baylor or MSU in the Albany region. The other practically insignificant difference would be the placement of the 7th best team in UCONN bracket vs the 8th best =small potatoes. Assuming the brackets hold up at the FF UCONN would also be playing the 3rd best team vs the 4th best but the FF is on neutral ground for everyone. Obviously in the Championship game the only practical difference is will UCONN be wearing white or American flag Blue. UCONN has never lost in the championship game wearing either color= smaller potatoes.

If you assume that these (UConn, Miss State, Baylor) are the three best teams, then it definitely does make a difference who gets the #1 seed. The #2 and #3 seeds will probably have to defeat both of the other two top teams to win an NC, whereas the #1 seed will certainly only have to defeat one of them.

I recognize the current relative SOS numbers, but I would expect those to be different after the rest of the season and the conference tournaments, and not in UConn's favor. Both Baylor and Mississippi State will probably have to defeat one and maybe two Top 10 teams to win their respective conference tournaments, which is not the case with UConn.

 

[oldude]

My 2 biggest concerns about the Tournament are one hip and one ankle.

Has anyone noticed Gabby floating to the rim on layups and not exploding up to the rim. Also I think on that left handed drive from the foul line, she has been releasing the ball farther from the hoop. I am very concerned for her health going forward. I'm sure the staff knows more than me and I trust them.

Lou's ankle seems to be able to go at any moment with much provocation.

tell me I am an old worry wart

Ditto. Hoping they get healthy by the Big Dance.

 

[eebmg]

Ditto. Hoping they get healthy by the Big Dance.

That would be nice but unlikely. It is clear that there are no games off for Lou, Gabby and Crystal to nurse nagging conditions. This is not Geno's way. The best we can hope for is some reduction in minutes and that the players can manage to push through these ailments. I am confident that they can.

 

[CocoHusky]

If you assume that these (UConn, Miss State, Baylor) are the three best teams, then it definitely does make a difference who gets the #1 seed. The #2 and #3 seeds will probably have to defeat both of the other two top teams to win an NC, whereas the #1 seed will certainly only have to defeat one of them.

I didn't say it would not make a difference, I said it would be a "practically insignificant difference".
Literally & "potentially" if you are number 1 you would have to beat the #2 and #4: if you are #2 you would have to beat #1 and #3. ALL of hese games are played on a neutral floor, therefore no home court advantage. Geno puts it much simpler and better. "To advance to the championship you are going to hae to beat a really really good team."

 

[HopJim]

UConn becomes #1 seed because of historical reasons. It has won 11 national championships. It has been to 10 straight .
I just hope NCAA does not put Baylor in our bracket as the 8th or the 9th overall seed.

Interesting conversation. Would rate it 50-50 whether you go with strength of schedule (particularly if its close) versus who won in last year's NCAA's.

 

[SVCBeercats]

According to Massey, UConn's SOS is #2, MissState's is #12 and Baylor's is #8.
According to Sagarin, UConn's SOS is #5, MissState's is #35 and Baylor's is #30.
According to RPIratings, UConn's SOS is #3, MissState's is #15 and Baylor's is #85.
If all 3 teams win out, what would be the argument for making either school a higher seed than UConn?

Only the NCAA's RPI calculation matters. Currently, as of 1/26/2018, The NCAA's RPI standings have UCONN #1, Miss St #3, and Baylor #10. If they all "win out," it does not mean they will remain in this order. Since 75% of their RPI comes from their opponents' records (2/3) and their Opponents' Opponents' records (1/3), their standings could change. If both UCONN and Miss ST go undefeated and Miss St's RPI is sufficiently higher due to the records of the SEC opponents etc. versus UCONN's AAC opponents etc., then Miss St may eke out the #1 seed. It is not overly probable but possible.

 

[bballnut90]

If you assume that these (UConn, Miss State, Baylor) are the three best teams, then it definitely does make a difference who gets the #1 seed. The #2 and #3 seeds will probably have to defeat both of the other two top teams to win an NC, whereas the #1 seed will certainly only have to defeat one of them.

I recognize the current relative SOS numbers, but I would expect those to be different after the rest of the season and the conference tournaments, and not in UConn's favor. Both Baylor and Mississippi State will probably have to defeat one and maybe two Top 10 teams to win their respective conference tournaments, which is not the case with UConn.

I think it’s too early to assume those are the 3 best teams. Not saying you’re assuming this but thought it was worth adding in.

If Louisville comes motivated they could beat down anyone. Notre Dame on a good day could beat any of those teams. Heck, Texas nearly beat UCONN and could easily win the next 2 against Baylor if their guards show up and Holmes gets up to speed. South Carolina with a healthy Wilson her senior year will be a tough out, and on a bad day anyone could lose to Tennessee or Oregon. The last couple of years it looked like there were very clear final four favorites in Baylor and Notre Dame, and both years neither team made it. It’s fun to think hypotheticals and analyze this. That said, it does look like it’s a more competitive landscape this year than it has the last several. Anyone can be upset if they have an off night in the regionals.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I think it’s too early to assume those are the 3 best teams. Not saying you’re assuming this but thought it was worth adding in.

If Louisville comes motivated they could beat down anyone. Notre Dame on a good day could beat any of those teams. Heck, Texas nearly beat UCONN and could easily win the next 2 against Baylor if their guards show up and Holmes gets up to speed. South Carolina with a healthy Wilson her senior year will be a tough out, and on a bad day anyone could lose to Tennessee or Oregon. The last couple of years it looked like there were very clear final four favorites in Baylor and Notre Dame, and both years neither team made it. It’s fun to think hypotheticals and analyze this. That said, it does look like it’s a more competitive landscape this year than it has the last several. Anyone can be upset if they have an off night in the regionals.

Kind of crazy to say the women's title is wide open this year, because in reality it's maybe 5 or 6 teams with a legitimate shot. I guess that's progress though.