What separates No. 2 Mississippi State from No. 1 UConn in women's college basketball?

[BostonCanuck]

Great points by many of you throughout this thread. Here's my two cents:

In terms of current rankings, SOS and RPI settle this argument before it even got started. UConn is top dog.

Many of us are salivating for the rematch, which in all likelihood will be this year's championship game. Yes, Mississippi State is that good. But how well do they really stack up against UConn?

In the backcourt, it's no contest. In my opinion, we have the best backcourt in the country. And frankly, both of their starting guards are vastly overrated. William has not improved since last year, and Schaefer has hit only 40% of her threes.

More importantly, our guards will be ready to deal with the problems that cost us so dearly last year with respect to pace of game and their pass-denial defense. I'd expect to see Megan subbing in and out for Kia and Crystal as needed. We now have all the necessary boxes checked, and will do a much better job of creating off the dribble and one-on-one to counteract their tough defensive style.

In the front court, it's a lot closer. But while they have two exceptional players, we have four!

Last year, two of our four elite starters had very off nights, and because nobody was available to sub in for them, we scored a total of 60 points in regulation. 60 points! That's just not going to happen again. We're going to drop 80 on them, and the only question is will we be able to limit their scoring sufficient to win the game.

To win, the Huskies will need to stop Vivians' three and dribble penetration, and McCowan down low in the paint, while getting close to an even split of offensive and defensive boards. The least successful part of that may well be the rebounding, but even if so, it shouldn't be fatal.

I'd spot Mississippi State 70 against the best defense in the nation, and not one point more. It will be UConn by at least 10, and I can't wait for this game!

 

[Aluminny69]

Mississippi State has only three games left on the schedule with the probability of winning is less than 98%.

That's Texas A&M (home) at 94%, South Carolina (home) 86% and Missouri (away) at 83%.

Their expected number of losses is about 0.4 (from these three: .06+.14+.17=0.37

UConn's expected number of losses is lower, but that's because they are a better team.

If Mississippi State played UConn remaining three toughest opponents:

@South Carolina, Louisville, South florida

The win probabilities would be:

74%, 74%, 94%

Expected losses (approximately)
.26+.26+.06= .58.

In other words, despite the fact that Mississippi State plays in a stronger conference than UConn, the remaining schedule for UConn is tougher than MS States' remaining schedule.

Frankly, that surprised me, I thought it would be close, but didn't guess it would turn out to be tougher.

Doesn't the SEC have a year end tournament? Miss. St. will likely play two top teams in the semi finals and finals. Win or lose, I expect Miss. ST. to be more challenged than UConn will be in the AAC tournament.

 

[Phil]

Doesn't the SEC have a year end tournament? Miss. St. will likely play two top teams in the semi finals and finals. Win or lose, I expect Miss. ST. to be more challenged than UConn will be in the AAC tournament.

You did say "this time of year". My bad for thinking this meant regular season and not asking you to clarify.

 

[Bigboote]

I had no idea how big McCowan was till I saw the Tennessee game. She dwarfed Mercedes Russell. Yeah, they're about the same height, but McCowan is so much broader in the shoulder. Russell is not a waifish 6-6 either.

And, Lordy, how McCowan's footwork has improved. She was a big player with a lot of potential last year; now she's a really good big player.

 

[easttexastrash]

I had no idea how big McCowan was till I saw the Tennessee game. She dwarfed Mercedes Russell. Yeah, they're about the same height, but McCowan is so much broader in the shoulder. Russell is not a waifish 6-6 either.

And, Lordy, how McCowan's footwork has improved. She was a big player with a lot of potential last year; now she's a really good big player.

McCowan is a load in the paint. I am glad that Baylor has two big post players because having just one would be a tough row to hoe. McCowan vs Kalani Brown would come down to which one gets into foul trouble first. Once one of them goes out the other will dominate the game.

 

[easttexastrash]

What separates UCONN and MSU from Baylor? I no longer think this is a two dog horse race. There is a bear growling right around the corner.

 

[HoopsFan21]

What separates UCONN and MSU from Baylor? I no longer think this is a two dog horse race. There is a bear growling right around the corner.

I agree. I think UConn, MSU, and Baylor are about equal. Watching all three teams play I don't see how anyone thinks there is a favorite to win it all this year. Seeing Baylor and MSU with their skilled bigs makes me miss the days we had players like that. Been a few years since we had one of those players that could own the low post like Stewie, Kiah, or Stef. Stewie and Kiah were shot blockers, and Stef was a big body that took up space.

 

[connie]

I agree. I think UConn, MSU, and Baylor are about equal. Watching all three teams play I don't see how anyone thinks there is a favorite to win it all this year. Seeing Baylor and MSU with their skilled bigs makes me miss the days we had players like that. Been a few years since we had one of those players that could own the low post like Stewie, Kiah, or Stef. Stewie and Kiah were shot blockers, and Stef was a big body that took up space.

Had one in Natalie. Sure would be nice to have her now.

 

[hussybulldog]

I will give the advantage to uconn’s backcourt and msst’s front court.
Uconn’s backcourt has improved from last year’s version and msst’s Williams will definitely be deprived of the last shot previledge should it comes down to one possession game. However, msst’s center is definitely improved a great deal and enlarged while uconn’s Williams is not jumping any higher this year. So unless McCowan is in foul trouble, it will be long day for UConn or short day(there will be no OT!) depending upon how you view it. Of course, important players from either team can have an off night, let’s hope it will not be any player from UConn.

 

[hussybulldog]

Had one in Natalie. Sure would be nice to have her now.

I don’t know about that, we had her last year as well. She will still be dwarfed by McCowan. And she can’t use speed to make it up as Stewie or Kiah.

 

[easttexastrash]

I will give the advantage to uconn’s backcourt and msst’s front court.
Uconn’s backcourt has improved from last year’s version and msst’s Williams will definitely be deprived of the last shot previledge should it comes down to one possession game. However, msst’s center is definitely improved a great deal and enlarged while uconn’s Williams is not jumping any higher this year. So unless McCowan is in foul trouble, it will be long day for UConn or short day(there will be no OT!) depending upon how you view it. Of course, important players from either team can have an off night, let’s hope it will not be any player from UConn.

Im amazed that anyone could have watched that game tonight and give anyone other than the Baylor frontcourt the advantage. Baylor has a McCowan, plus a Cox. I don’t see how MSU tops that.

 

[hussybulldog]

Im amazed that anyone could have watched that game tonight and give anyone other than the Baylor frontcourt the advantage. Baylor has a McCowan, plus a Cox. I don’t see how MSU tops that.

Nobody is discounting baylor’s front court here. But this thread is on the separation btwn UConn and msst, Baylor is not part of the discussion here.

 

[eebmg]

Nobody is discounting baylor’s front court here. But this thread is on the separation btwn UConn and msst, Baylor is not part of the discussion here.

It will be.

 

[trb123]

MSST is hungrier than UConn. Schaeffer certainly hungers more for a championship than Geno.
The same goes for Baylor. These two teams have prevented me from counting that chicken before it is hatched.
I stopped talking about Lauren Cox not being able to hoist a championship banner before the season started.

 

[oldude]

One of the reasons I believe it’s important for UConn to beat SC next week is that it will likely result in the Huskies being the #1 overall seed, as I think UConn will also handle a Louisville team, that has come back to earth, at Gampel on 2/22.

Assuming that MS St wins the SEC over SC, and Baylor wins the Big12 over TX, ending up the 2 & 3 overall seeds, that would mean that the Huskies could face only one of the two teams, assuming they and UConn both get to the National final, and as everyone knows, Geno and the Huskies don’t lose in the National Championship game

 

[jaundicedeye]

What separates UCONN and MSU from Baylor? I no longer think this is a two dog horse race. There is a bear growling right around the corner.

Bears growling, Bulldogs woofing and Huskies barking - going to be a loud NCAA tournament!
Release the hounds!

 

[the Q]

If the two teams were to meet up again this year mission number 1 for UCONN is to make Morgan William uncomfortable.
William was not defended on 1 single possession until after she had crossed half court in the FF game. Even more so than last year the MSU is heavily dependent on Willian in the half court sets. Molly Bent or Mikayla Coombs must emerge as an adequate on ball defender that is capable of 10 quality minutes of defense per game. Kia Nurse will have her hands filled with Vivians and Crystal is getting there but she will eventually need a break. Only Gabby among the starters is capable of this on ball defense but she will be needed to help out with the post defense.

I've said before I wanted to see Geno put Gabby on Itty Bitty during last year's game. That would've made her really uncomfortable.

But that would've meant more run for Butler....but even a few minutes of rest for a guard and taking them out of their rhythm might've helped.

 

[Centerstream]

One of the reasons I believe it’s important for UConn to beat SC next week is that it will likely result in the Huskies being the #1 overall seed, as I think UConn will also handle a Louisville team, that has come back to earth, at Gampel on 2/22.

Assuming that MS St wins the SEC over SC, and Baylor wins the Big12 over TX, ending up the 2 & 3 overall seeds, that would mean that the Huskies could face only one of the two teams, assuming they and UConn both get to the National final, and as everyone knows, Geno and the Huskies don’t lose in the National Championship game

Agreed. But who will be #4? I am guessing that it might be SC or ND which means a team #1 has met in the regular season. Would the NCAA do that? (I know this is not part of the OP,but...)

 

[Teacherdeb]

Bingo. In 2018, MSU's highest recruits are ranked 48,49, and 54. In 2017, they got 1 top 100 Kid who was rated #50. In 2016, no kids in the top 100 - only 1 3-star recruit. In 2015, it was only McCowan. 2 other recruits were 3-star.

So once this quartet of starters leaves, MSU is stuck with McCowan, and that's about it. IMHO they will be one of the lesser teams in the SEC unless they land some kind of transfers, or unless several of the kids recruited are much better than their rankings... IMHO it would be like UCONN having only Azura Stevens, then a bunch of kids like Irwin, Bent, Gordon, Ekmark, Engeln, Gardler, etc. We've all seen how well our subs do against other teams' starters in the 4th quarter (altho they have gotten MUCH better in the past 2-3 weeks). But my point is, MSU won't be good next year unless I'm missing something...

I would suggest that you are missing the coaching- I thought the game plan by Mississippi State in the semifinal was brilliant, and SchaEfer isn’t going anywhere. Consider the 1991 Huskies- where were those players ranked? And through the early 90’s- with the exception of Lobo, CT players weren’t highly ranked. And yet, they won consistently. I still believe a cheap shot by Tonya Sampson of NC against Risotti that causing her to sit out a while changed the outcome of that game- CT was good enough to win that year. So it comes down to coaching. Obviously it helps getting the quality players Geno recruits, but the ability to read a recruit for their future value and the ability to draw out a player’s best is one of Coach Auriemma’s finest qualities. I respect Schaefer a lot- he also knew how to use that 60 point loss as a major motivation, and we failed to see that coming. That’s why they play the games.

 

[hussybulldog]

Agreed. But who will be #4? I am guessing that it might be SC or ND which means a team #1 has met in the regular season. Would the NCAA do that? (I know this is not part of the OP,but...)

They put UConn / ND in semifinal quite a few times ...

 

[oldude]

Agreed. But who will be #4? I am guessing that it might be SC or ND which means a team #1 has met in the regular season. Would the NCAA do that? (I know this is not part of the OP,but...)

Yes, the NCAA would do that. They circle seed 1-16, so if UConn is #1 and all the favorites advance, UConn would face #16 in the Sweet 16, #8 in the Elite 8, #4 in the semifinal and #2 in the final. Of course upsets are more frequent these days.

 

[EricSD]

I would suggest that you are missing the coaching- I thought the game plan by Mississippi State in the semifinal was brilliant, and SchaEfer isn’t going anywhere. Consider the 1991 Huskies- where were those players ranked? And through the early 90’s- with the exception of Lobo, CT players weren’t highly ranked. And yet, they won consistently. I still believe a cheap shot by Tonya Sampson of NC against Risotti that causing her to sit out a while changed the outcome of that game- CT was good enough to win that year. So it comes down to coaching. Obviously it helps getting the quality players Geno recruits, but the ability to read a recruit for their future value and the ability to draw out a player’s best is one of Coach Auriemma’s finest qualities. I respect Schaefer a lot- he also knew how to use that 60 point loss as a major motivation, and we failed to see that coming. That’s why they play the games.

How good would UCONN be with JUST Azura, and then a team comprised of Megan Gardler, Cassie Kerns, Tahirah Williams, Michala Johnson, Lauren Engeln, Courtney Ekmark, Lexi Gordon, AEH, etc? Because that's about what Vic will have next year. I don't dispute that he's a terrific coach, but he loses 4 starters, and these are 4 elite players.

Our reserves have just begun to hold their own against some of the dregs of the American conference. How do you think They would fare against any other top 25 team? That was my point. And I think most of us can agree that Geno is the best coach in the game, but with a roster like I listed above, even Geno would probably be only be several games above .500. And that's playing in our conference. Miss State is in the SEC - they will be in the lower half IMHO.

If not, then I would say he should be considered for COY. Unless I'm missing something on his roster, they are taking an enormous step back next season, and they have no real help on the horizon...

 

[JoePgh]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

 

[trb123]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

UConn becomes #1 seed because of historical reasons. It has won 11 national championships. It has been to 10 straight .
I just hope NCAA does not put Baylor in our bracket as the 8th or the 9th overall seed.

 

[Centerstream]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

UConn being undefeated guarantees them the #1 seed based upon their OOC schedule. Baylor's OOC schedule is a joke by design and it's served it's purpose. MSU if undefeated will be #2 due to their SEC dominance.

 

[Centerstream]

Yes, the NCAA would do that. They circle seed 1-16, so if UConn is #1 and all the favorites advance, UConn would face #16 in the Sweet 16, #8 in the Elite 8, #4 in the semifinal and #2 in the final. Of course upsets are more frequent these days.

I understand that. But my question was more along the lines of would the NCAA flip flop 3 and 4 because of the in season meeting. Based upon the past, I guess the answer is No.

 

[Crossover]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

1. I've never thought that the Devil needed an advocate.
2. Your question is a good one, even if advanced by an angel.

 

[oldude]

I understand that. But my question was more along the lines of would the NCAA flip flop 3 and 4 because of the in season meeting. Based upon the past, I guess the answer is No.

That would be unfair to the #3 team.

 

[CocoHusky]

A Devil's Advocate question: Supposing that UConn and Mississippi State finish the season undefeated, and Baylor finishes with only the loss to UCLA when neither their coach nor one of their best players was at the game. Given that the SEC and Big12 are, ahem, stronger conferences than the AAC, why should UConn necessarily get the overall #1 seed? None of the top 3 seeds will have played each other, so there is nothing that could be learned from head-to-head competition. But we do know that Baylor beat Texas by a lot more than UConn beat Texas, and played other common opponents (except UCLA) equally well. If you rely on the "eye test", at least this pair of eyes does not see UConn as clearly superior to the other two teams.

I don't think it would be unreasonable for the Committee to make UConn the #2 or even #3 overall seed in this scenario.

It would be unreasonable for UCONN to be #3 overall in that scenario because UCONN would have beaten the team (UCLA) that gave Baylor it's only loss among the three teams. It wouldn't be reasonable for UCONN to be #2 overall but of little real consequences because of the geography of regional finals. The committee would have to be suicidal or really really bad business people to put either Baylor or MSU in the Albany region. The other practically insignificant difference would be the placement of the 7th best team in UCONN bracket vs the 8th best =small potatoes. Assuming the brackets hold up at the FF UCONN would also be playing the 3rd best team vs the 4th best but the FF is on neutral ground for everyone. Obviously in the Championship game the only practical difference is will UCONN be wearing white or American flag Blue. UCONN has never lost in the championship game wearing either color= smaller potatoes.

 

[UConnCat]

According to Massey, UConn's SOS is #2, MissState's is #12 and Baylor's is #8.
According to Sagarin, UConn's SOS is #5, MissState's is #35 and Baylor's is #30.
According to RPIratings, UConn's SOS is #3, MissState's is #15 and Baylor's is #85.

If all 3 teams win out, what would be the argument for making either school a higher seed than UConn?