What separates No. 2 Mississippi State from No. 1 UConn in women's college basketball?

[Carnac]

UConn — which has five wins against currently ranked teams, including No. 6 Texas and No. 5 Notre Dame — leads the country in points per game and field-goal percentage while MSU ranks No. 5 and No. 10, respectively, in those categories. Defensively, though, there is a wider difference; UConn holds opposing teams to 32.8 percent from the field, and MSU’s mark is 38.5 percent. UConn has the edge in other statistics, too, but MSU does commit fewer turnovers.

A strong case can be made for either team, and while the Bulldogs certainly deserve a look, no one here is debating UConn as completely deserving of the No. 1 ranking. But all 32 votes in one direction? It is at least worth discussing — given last year’s result and MSU’s résumé this season — how much name recognition (or lack thereof) factors into the current separation in the poll.

“All I’ll say is that we’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing,” Vic Schaefer said. “I know how hard my kids work, and I do think we still battle the respect factor a little bit across the country.”

[Article]

 

[BroadwayVa]

UConn — which has five wins against currently ranked teams, including No. 6 Texas and No. 5 Notre Dame — leads the country in points per game and field-goal percentage while MSU ranks No. 5 and No. 10, respectively, in those categories. Defensively, though, there is a wider difference; UConn holds opposing teams to 32.8 percent from the field, and MSU’s mark is 38.5 percent. UConn has the edge in other statistics, too, but MSU does commit fewer turnovers.

A strong case can be made for either team, and while the Bulldogs certainly deserve a look, no one here is debating UConn as completely deserving of the No. 1 ranking. But all 32 votes in one direction? It is at least worth discussing — given last year’s result and MSU’s résumé this season — how much name recognition (or lack thereof) factors into the current separation in the poll.

“All I’ll say is that we’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing,” Vic Schaefer said. “I know how hard my kids work, and I do think we still battle the respect factor a little bit across the country.”

[Article]

Scoop---nice posting, some nice stats.in
A week or so ago I would say, dismiss the ND win that was a different team. I look at Ms St not so much by stats but with the ---incidentals.
At lest 3 significant scorers on Ms, and the coaches daughter is no slouch. Defensively, they play tight defense even off the bench. They tend to play helter skelter one on one defense, with some help--the defense Uconn likes the least. McGowan is one inch taller than Z. Mc Gowan is heavier, harder to move off the block--Azura is a bit easier to move. Z plays finesse BB, McGowan more of a brute force type. In a head to head match up who fouls out first? Kia can take Vivian out of the game, but who is quick enough to manage Itty B itty Willam (Coombs?) Who will take Katie Lou and Napheesa and Gabby out of the game , except themselves?? Two of these 3 have , when playing biggers, had foul probems.
l
This becomes an interesting discussion for Ms St and Louisville.

 

[eebmg]

I really believe very little seperates the 2 teams and I think I would go 60% - 40% . MSU is very very good.

 

[connie]

I have not watched one second of MS games this year. I think that pretty much tells you what you need to know about my qualifications as a reliable respondent.

I will note that MS seems to place the burden of its scoring on McCowen and Vivians (who collectively average 40 points per game--a little less than half the team's total offensive output). Shut down McCowen and/or Vivians (but how?), and things may get tough for MS. The other starters shoot 42%, 37% and 39% from the floor (Johnson, Shaefer, William)--about 40%. By comparison, UConn's starters and nos. 6 and 7 off the bench have significantly higher FG% (Crystal and Megan are the "poorest" of the bunch, at 49% and 46%). I think it is safe to say that UConn has more reliable, evenly distributed offensive production.

McCowen averages over 20 points and 13 RB per game. 2 Blocks per game -- about the same as Z and Phees. Only 8 assists in 20 games (which suggests that once she gets the ball, her teammates are not likely to score--but then, with a 64% FG they may not need to).

Comparing teams stats is interesting and perhaps telling. But we would need to know more about the quality of the opposition. (Holding teams to 32% FG is impressive, if the teams average 40% from the floor; not so much if they average 30%.) The assumption (not unreasonable) is that the opposition is similar enough to make the statistical comparison meaningful.

I am not an expert by any stretch. But I would have to say that UConn looks better balanced on offense. Defensively? Can't say. Something tells me they are very, very good. I like Vic Schaefer and wish the team good fortune in the home stretch.

 

[JoePgh]

Don't you think it's time (starting next year) for the two teams to play each other during the season?

 

[RockyMTblue2]

or Vivians (but how?)

Kia Nurse. You don't have to shut them down, just put them off their rhythm and take away a couple of their favorite spots.

 

[Aluminny69]

Miss. State plays in the SEC, which currently has four teams in the top ten. You can't even compare the SEC with the AAC. UConn makes up for this discrepancy with a strong OOC schedule, but at this time of year, Miss. State plays the tougher games. Yes, I would love to see a UConn - Miss. State series, but the question is, how long can Miss. State sustain their level of play. Four seniors graduating this year.

 

[connie]

Kia Nurse. You don't have to shut them down, just put them off their rhythm and take away a couple of their favorite spots.

I started to address the match ups; and this included a suggestion that Geno would likely put Kia on Vivians. Thought better of it since the OP focused more on comparing the rankings of the teams (which is based, presumably, on overall performance throughout the season against many teams) rather than how the two teams would match up head-to-head.

My guess is that Kia would substantially affect Vivians' production on offense. Beyond that, it all becomes too much of a guessing game for my taste. Fun to think about. I guess we'll see what happens if the two teams meet in the tournament. Long way to go.

 

[CocoHusky]

If the two teams were to meet up again this year mission number 1 for UCONN is to make Morgan William uncomfortable.
William was not defended on 1 single possession until after she had crossed half court in the FF game. Even more so than last year the MSU is heavily dependent on Willian in the half court sets. Molly Bent or Mikayla Coombs must emerge as an adequate on ball defender that is capable of 10 quality minutes of defense per game. Kia Nurse will have her hands filled with Vivians and Crystal is getting there but she will eventually need a break. Only Gabby among the starters is capable of this on ball defense but she will be needed to help out with the post defense.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I have not watched one second of MS games this year. I think that pretty much tells you what you need to know about my qualifications as a reliable respondent.

I will note that MS seems to place the burden of its scoring on McCowen and Vivians (who collectively average 40 points per game--a little less than half the team's total offensive output). Shut down McCowen and/or Vivians (but how?), and things may get tough for MS. The other starters shoot 42%, 37% and 39% from the floor (Johnson, Shaefer, William)--about 40%. By comparison, UConn's starters and nos. 6 and 7 off the bench have significantly higher FG% (Crystal and Megan are the "poorest" of the bunch, at 49% and 46%). I think it is safe to say that UConn has more reliable, evenly distributed offensive production.

McCowen averages over 20 points and 13 RB per game. 2 Blocks per game -- about the same as Z and Phees. Only 8 assists in 20 games (which suggests that once she gets the ball, her teammates are not likely to score--but then, with a 64% FG they may not need to).

Comparing teams stats is interesting and perhaps telling. But we would need to know more about the quality of the opposition. (Holding teams to 32% FG is impressive, if the teams average 40% from the floor; not so much if they average 30%.) The assumption (not unreasonable) is that the opposition is similar enough to make the statistical comparison meaningful.

I am not an expert by any stretch. But I would have to say that UConn looks better balanced on offense. Defensively? Can't say. Something tells me they are very, very good. I like Vic Schaefer and wish the team good fortune in the home stretch.

I

My qualification on this subject is significantly less than your's. So I'll stumble through my beliefs, not a fact in any sentence.
The highlight paragraph/sentence --the reason McGowan's assists are not greater--they need not be. Once she gets the ball her probability of scoring is pretty high. At 6 ft 7 and able to leap--not many will stop her without fouling her and she is a good foul shooter and has a fair shot from the top of the key. If she were not on Ms State I'd be touting her abilities. Oh, I am, aren't I?
If Geno could shut down McGowan he would have done that last April, when she was less polished.
My guess is in any contest between Uconn and Ms State it will come to a few points: Defense on William, who can get the quickest fouls on ; McGowan-then Azura/Collier. Who can take Katie Lou or Vivian out of the scoring? How Ms St Bench plays vs Uconn's. I believe it will be a contest of Defenses and both are good--
However both Uconn and Ms St have a lot of games left to play and as Geno oft says: Who you play in the NCAA's is a matter of luck.
Either or both could lose before they ever get to play each other.

 

[UcMiami]

The current SOS comparison and RPI comparison is:
SOS - Uconn #1 and Ms St a very respectable #10
RPI - Uconn #1 and Ms St #3
With Uconn still due to play both SC and Louisville and MS only having one game against SC plus Tx A&M and Missouri, the relative ranks will probably remain about there.
Massey's who I trust a little more than the standard NCAA stats projects Uconn's SOS at #2 at the end of the regular season and Ms St at #13.

Given that the rest of the Uconn regular season is likely full of 40+ point wins and high Assist/TO ratios, the stats listed in the article are likely to continue slanting toward Uconn.

And looking back at last year's FF as the determinant in the slant of the article is pretty silly and mentioning Uconn and TN and not SC and Baylor (and even ND who doesn't have a NC but has a lot of FF appearances) who are much more significant in the past 10 years than TN is also a little silly.

MS St is clearly a very strong team and they were a strong team last year, but ...

 

[BroadwayVa]

If the two teams were to meet up again this year mission number 1 for UCONN is to make Morgan William uncomfortable.
William was not defended on 1 single possession until after she had crossed half court in the FF game. Even more so than last year the MSU is heavily dependent on Willian in the half court sets. Molly Bent or Mikayla Coombs must emerge as an adequate on ball defender that is capable of 10 quality minutes of defense per game. Kia Nurse will have her hands filled with Vivians and Crystal is getting there but she will eventually need a break. Only Gabby among the starters is capable of this on ball defense but she will be needed to help out with the post defense.

We agree--Coombs as much as I have seen is a good and getting better defender. She is as quick as white lightening. Does she have the smarts/experience to take it to a very experienced William???? I think Kia will contain Vivians. Molly plays ok defense, is not fast nor quick on defense. Uconn lost their poise that won't happen again, I would think. William has perfected the floater over bigs that negates Z or Napheesa's ability to block.
The only one to give any true relief for Gabby is Walker. Not as quick as Gabby, not as experienced--plus side is she can run the entire game. Big Big question mark for me: Can Azura go head to head, one on one with MCGowan and win that contest?? Or will they negate one another??

 

[BroadwayVa]

Kia Nurse. You don't have to shut them down, just put them off their rhythm and take away a couple of their favorite spots.

Absolutes true. But ignorant me; I'd call that shutting them down. I think KIA can and should they meet, hold Vivian's to a very low number of points. The nice thing about that is: if a team's one or two top scorer is missing--it sometime infects the team.

 

[Carnac]

I started to address the match ups; and this included a suggestion that Geno would likely put Kia on Vivians. Thought better of it since the OP focused more on comparing the rankings of the teams (which is based, presumably, on overall performance throughout the season against many teams) rather than how the two teams would match up head-to-head.

My guess is that Kia would substantially affect Vivians' production on offense. Beyond that, it all becomes too much of a guessing game for my taste. Fun to think about. I guess we'll see what happens if the two teams meet in the tournament. Long way to go.

I think you still can. One thing we know for certain. UConn and Mississippi State will both make the tournament. Both will probably garner #1 seeds. It use to be said that no one wanted to be in UConn's bracket. I think the same now could be said of Mississippi State. They're beating all comers.

This time, I doubt they will be placed on the same side of the bracket as UConn. There's a real good chance that both of them could be undefeated when the tournament begins. Their paths have to cross. When it does, everyone will want to see them meet for the championship game, not before.

 

[drweo]

If the two teams were to meet up again this year mission number 1 for UCONN is to make Morgan William uncomfortable.
William was not defended on 1 single possession until after she had crossed half court in the FF game. Even more so than last year the MSU is heavily dependent on Willian in the half court sets. Molly Bent or Mikayla Coombs must emerge as an adequate on ball defender that is capable of 10 quality minutes of defense per game. Kia Nurse will have her hands filled with Vivians and Crystal is getting there but she will eventually need a break. Only Gabby among the starters is capable of this on ball defense but she will be needed to help out with the post defense.

I've thought about the same strategy for covering William: rotate guards (Crystal, Molly, Mikayla, and sometimes even Kia) to face-guard her throughout the game, make her have to think about a lot more, do a lot more, while she's bringing the ball up and running the offense. Yes, as you say, make her uncomfortable.

 

[oldude]

Crystal's improvement is not just confined to offense. I've been watching Crystal's defense over the past few weeks and she very much reminds me of a smaller, quicker version of Kia. Like Kia, Crystal is always aware of where everyone is on the floor. She's almost as good as Kia at fighting over the top of ball screens and like Kia, she almost never leaves her feet on a ball fake.

While she doesn't have Kia's size, her exceptional quickness gives her the ability to strip the ball from opposing point guards and poach passing lanes for errant passes.

So the answer to the question, "Who guards Morgan William?" is right in front of us. Crystal has all the skill and quickness required to defend William, with the added benefit that William is one of the few opposing pg's in the country where Crystal has a height advantage.

 

[Phil]

Miss. State plays in the SEC, which currently has four teams in the top ten. You can't even compare the SEC with the AAC. UConn makes up for this discrepancy with a strong OOC schedule, but at this time of year, Miss. State plays the tougher games.

Let's start by saying the correct metric isn't the number of teams in the top 10 it's the number of top teams other than oneself. If you're talking about some like Vanderbilt for example they can talk about the number of top 10 teams they have to play. Mississippi State isn't going to play themselves, so that immediately drops the count of 4 to 3.

Except:
who are the three?

If you're going by the AP or coaches poll then South Carolina and (just barely) Tennessee are in the top 10. Did I miss someone?

If you go by computer rankings such as Sagarin, There's one team other than Mississippi State in the top 10. Tennessee hanging in at number 10 just barely makes the cut. South Carolina is at 13 in Missouri is at 20.

If you go by Massey, you've got Tennessee at number nine but no one else.

Furthermore, if you're talking about what their upcoming conference schedule looks like, Mississippi State is already played Tennessee so there are no top 10 opponents left other than South Carolina.

UConn doesn't have any highly ranked competition left in their conference schedule but so what the key issue is who they have left to play. With Louisville and South Carolina on the schedule, they have as many top 10 opponents left is Mississippi State and they are more highly ranked.

Sure, Mississippi State has a couple other top 25 teams on their schedule, but the disparity is nowhere near as stark as you suggest.

 

[cbraarj]

What separates the 2 teams is Uconn will not play their c- game against Miss. State this year! Mississippi State deserved to win last year without a doubt. Does anybody really think Uconn will play that bad against them this year! I dont think so! Uconn was way to over confident going into that game after destroying them by 60 the year before. Huskies were out hustled the whole game and shot the ball terrible. They only scored 64 pts in an overtime game. Mcgowan and Richardson with Okorie were hitting the offensive glass and scoring with putbacks. Mississippi State played the game of their careers and won on a last second shot in overtime. This year they will not be taken lightly and Uconn wins by 25!

 

[cbraarj]

Crystal's improvement is not just confined to offense. I've been watching Crystal's defense over the past few weeks and she very much reminds me of a smaller, quicker version of Kia. Like Kia, Crystal is always aware of where everyone is on the floor. She's almost as good as Kia at fighting over the top of ball screens and like Kia, she almost never leaves her feet on a ball fake.

While she doesn't have Kia's size, her exceptional quickness gives her the ability to strip the ball from opposing point guards and poach passing lanes for errant passes.

So the answer to the question, "Who guards Morgan William?" is right in front of us. Crystal has all the skill and quickness required to defend William, with the added benefit that William is one of the few opposing pg's in the country where Crystal has a height advantage.

Morgan William had 13 pts last year.

 

[Phil]

Mississippi State has only three games left on the schedule with the probability of winning is less than 98%.

That's Texas A&M (home) at 94%, South Carolina (home) 86% and Missouri (away) at 83%.

Their expected number of losses is about 0.4 (from these three: .06+.14+.17=0.37

UConn's expected number of losses is lower, but that's because they are a better team.

If Mississippi State played UConn remaining three toughest opponents:

@South Carolina, Louisville, South florida

The win probabilities would be:

74%, 74%, 94%

Expected losses (approximately)
.26+.26+.06= .58.

In other words, despite the fact that Mississippi State plays in a stronger conference than UConn, the remaining schedule for UConn is tougher than MS States' remaining schedule.

Frankly, that surprised me, I thought it would be close, but didn't guess it would turn out to be tougher.

 

[paisan]

You are all assuming that the core four will all play well in a head to head match

Me too , but they have not done so this season in the tough games
Pheesa and gabby cannot seem to both play all out at the same time this year ,,go figure ?
Azura has saved the bacon ...but against MS she will have her hands full...If the core four and crystal do not come with their A game it will be trouble.

 

[connie]

she is a good foul shooter

McCowen is a 59% FT shooter. 65 out of 110.

Still, stats. are tricky. Question is how is McCowen shooting FTs down the stretch? Maybe great, maybe not.

Same issue applies generally when comparing stats as b/t the teams. True, UConn has players with higher FG% as compared to MS. But it would be interesting to see how the numbers look when adjusted for games against taller teams? Not sure such a thing could be meaningfully determined. Sample size might be too small. But if you could look at, say, 8 games on the season where UConn played a team with a big interior defense, you might find that shooting percentages are much lower (fewer high % inside shots). Or maybe not.

 

[Phil]

But if you could look at, say, 8 games on the season where UConn played a team with a big interior defense, you might find that shooting percentages are much lower (fewer high % inside shots). Or maybe not.

Texas has interior height.

We shot 49%.

 

[EricLA]

Miss. State plays in the SEC, which currently has four teams in the top ten. You can't even compare the SEC with the AAC. UConn makes up for this discrepancy with a strong OOC schedule, but at this time of year, Miss. State plays the tougher games. Yes, I would love to see a UConn - Miss. State series, but the question is, how long can Miss. State sustain their level of play. Four seniors graduating this year.

Bingo. In 2018, MSU's highest recruits are ranked 48,49, and 54. In 2017, they got 1 top 100 Kid who was rated #50. In 2016, no kids in the top 100 - only 1 3-star recruit. In 2015, it was only McCowan. 2 other recruits were 3-star.

So once this quartet of starters leaves, MSU is stuck with McCowan, and that's about it. IMHO they will be one of the lesser teams in the SEC unless they land some kind of transfers, or unless several of the kids recruited are much better than their rankings... IMHO it would be like UCONN having only Azura Stevens, then a bunch of kids like Irwin, Bent, Gordon, Ekmark, Engeln, Gardler, etc. We've all seen how well our subs do against other teams' starters in the 4th quarter (altho they have gotten MUCH better in the past 2-3 weeks). But my point is, MSU won't be good next year unless I'm missing something...

 

[connie]

If the two teams were to meet up again this year mission number 1 for UCONN is to make Morgan William uncomfortable.

In furtherance of the guessing game . . . it is enjoyable to consider how things would pan out head-to-head if UConn sought to smother Vivians and William, while effectively conceding McCowen's offense. Make MS run run run all night long and turn it into a shooting match. Could McCowen endure an end-to-end high scoring affair?

I also note that McCowen is prone to fouling. I count only 5-6 games all season where she has committed 2 or fewer fouls in a game (though the trend has tapered off of late). Typically, she draws 3 or more fouls. I suspect her average on the year is around 3 per game. She typically logs around 26-30 minutes per game, though she has gone longer of late. Perhaps one strategy is to attack her defense, get her to commit fouls, put her in foul trouble, even at the risk of missed shots, blocks, etc.