What BET seeding scenario do you prefer? | Page 2 | The Boneyard

What BET seeding scenario do you prefer?

Would you rather UConn get the 3-seed or the 4-seed in the Big East Tournament?

  • 3-seed

    Votes: 50 50.0%

  • 4-seed

    Votes: 50 50.0%
  • Total voters
    100
  • Poll closed .
In the BE case, if we and Creighton are 4 and 3 respectively, I'm upset. I want to play them again. We'd only see them in the final, which would be ideal but not probable. I want to face them not because of the 0-5 and the recent loss, though that didn't help - I feel they are the type of team that gives us trouble. Not super talented but super well coached.
 
Watchdog said:
If we had beaten Creighton we would be the 3 seed and the 3 seed doesn't play the top seed until the final so we would not have been playing PC on Friday.
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Well, I did say that my dream scenario is impossible now. It could have happened if, for example, PC finished first, Nova second (or third for that matter), UConn fourth and Creighton fifth.
 
4 seed in the Providence-Marquette side avoiding Creighton and Nova.
 
Will be in Pinehurst for a golf trip so for the selfish reason of being able to watch Thursday on a tv and not a phone I hope its the 3 seed.
 
auror said:
No, but is Seton Hall not also a good team, one that was good enough to already beat us when we played a really good offensive game (albeit at their place)?

Seton Hall is ranked better in every metric than Marquette (NET, KenPom, SOR, KPI, Sagarin, and BPI) despite finishing lower in the Big East standings. They've won 7 of their last 9 games, compared to Marquette which has won only 4 of their last 9.

Not to mention the matchup advantage we have vs. Marquette compared to Seton Hall. We have no good defensive options for Richmond (our best plan was to double and leave a shooter wide open) and Seton Hall has the size to combat us inside. Meanwhile we've owned Kuath and Ighodaro, and have plenty of options to throw at Lewis (or just let him get his, whereas Hall still has other threats aside from Richmond like Rhoden).

On a neutral court, I don't think the emotional grudge will make up the difference in their form, quality, or the matchup deficiency.
Expand ...
This a million times.
 
.-.
At this point once you get off the bus at MSG you have to beat whomever sits on the other bench. No team except perhaps Gtown is what anyone could consider an underdog. This league is full of teams that are fairly evenly matched. The trophy is up for grabs with a lot of hands that could wrap around the handles. Have to come out of the blocks hungry and strong
 
looks like the 4 seeders have it. rooting for Hall and MU this weekend.
 
I mean better path for us wud be 4 seed but then we play at stupid time of 2:30 on a weekday. Really don’t want to have to try and sneak out of work early or record game and be an hour or so behind. Selfishly, I wud love all the late prime time tips and 3 seed but that’s just me
 
I prefered the 4 to be on the PC side of the bracket, but that required us losing to Creighton the other night which I did not want to happen. Since we did lose to Creighton, It seems like we will in fact end up as the 4 anyway, unless Seton Hall beats Creighton. I know every team is dangerous, but you want to avoid Villanova as long as possible. If it ends up where we are playing Villanova for the Championship, chances are we would have picked up two Quad 1 wins to make it there. At that point, we would be playing with house money. I know the goal is to win the Big East Championship right now, but picking up two additional Quad 1 wins would still go a long way in helping our seeding for the NCAA Tournament.
 
.-.
We can still get Marquette if they lose at home St. John's and we beat Depaul. Best of both worlds at the 3 seed (with the only downgrade being Nova instead of Providence in the potential 2nd game).
 
if uconn gets to the finals, I’ll be in town. I’m supposed to go up to new haven to see family but gonna have to detour off the gw bridge
 
Does Marquette need to win this? They getting in? Would be 11-8 in BE going in
 
jibsey said:
Does Marquette need to win this? They getting in? Would be 11-8 in BE going in
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With 6-7 quad 1, they're likely in. But their seed might not be great with a loss and early BET exit.
 
.-.
That confirms the 3 seed correct? I don’t think it’s right to favor a seed in the BET, especially if it’s to avoid Nova until later. We need to act like we own this league at all times. Let’s play through everyone and anyone.
 
GotNets? said:
That confirms the 3 seed correct? I don’t think it’s right to favor a seed in the BET, especially if it’s to avoid Nova until later. We need to act like we own this league at all times. Let’s play through everyone and anyone.
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Yup locked in as the 3 seed now. Marquette wins tonight and we play the Seton Hall/Georgetown winner. If St John's wins, we play the Marquette/Georgetown winner
 
Providence has got to be pretty happy with the way the 3- and 4-seeds shook out (although they'd never admit it to us).
 
Get a Job said:
Providence has got to be pretty happy with the way the 3- and 4-seeds shook out (although they'd never admit it to us).
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If Marquette holds on to win the 3 highest rated Kenpom teams will all be on the bottom of the bracket. PC has a very nice road to the title game.
 
So here we go. 3 seed, getting the Hall/GTown winner Thursday 9:30pm

2022 BIG EAST Men's Basketball Tournament - Big East Conference

www.bigeast.com www.bigeast.com

Screen Shot 2022-03-05 at 11.54.38 PM.jpg
 
We have a better draw than Nova if St. John’s advances.
 
.-.
jibsey said:
We have a better draw than Nova if St. John’s advances.
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Nah. Nova is better than us (and we have to play them vs. them playing us) and Seton Hall is significantly better than St. John's (assuming Richmond plays).
 
I'm sure this will be discussed in the next poll thread but some meaningful losses, a couple creating some wiggle room.

4 Duke to unranked UNC
12 Texas Tech to unranked Okie St
14 Arkansas to 13 Tenn
16 USC to 17 UCLA
21 Texas to 6 Kansas
25 Alabama to unranked LSU
 
bendm said:
fivethirtyeight.com

It Really Is Harder To Beat A Team The Third Time In Men’s College Basketball

The third time often is the charm for some teams.
fivethirtyeight.com

I guess it’s a good thing we are playing Hall in the 3/6 instead of Marquette in the 4/5 after all!
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Interesting, but vs. Marquette we'd be in the between 3 and 7 adj EM difference bucket, and the trend seems to be that it's much harder to beat a better team 3x in this bucket than typical, whereas beating a worse team 3x looks about expected (between 3 and 7 adj EM is going to be 58-65% favorites normally and this has them winning 63% of the time).
 
Last edited:
bendm said:
fivethirtyeight.com

It Really Is Harder To Beat A Team The Third Time In Men’s College Basketball

The third time often is the charm for some teams.
fivethirtyeight.com

I guess it’s a good thing we are playing Hall in the 3/6 instead of Marquette in the 4/5 after all!
Expand ...
Very interesting read. In its totality, I think this analysis refutes the blanket statement "It's hard to beat a team three times" more than it supports it. Really, all it shows is that

a.) it's definitely hard to beat a superior team 3 times in season, and
b.) when two teams are nearly evenly matched, and the slightly better team wins the first two, said team wins the third matchup at a slightly lower rate than expected

Outside of these specific and relatively rare scenarios, the cliché is untrue. Even the modified version, that it's hard to beat a good team is meaningless at best: One has to consider the relative strengths of both teams in question. It's not that hard for a great team to beat a good team 3 times in a season.
 
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