What’s the magic number?

[UCLJ0211]

4 regular season games left plus at least one (hopefully more) in the BET. What’s our magic number of wins needed to make the NCAA tourney?

While it seems we have a little bit of wiggle room from bubble territory, (most outlets have us as an 8 or 9 seed currently,) I think we need to win at least 2 more to stay in the NCAA tourney field. 3 more wins would make me more comfortable, and preferably one of those wins is against Marquette.

Curious to hear everyone else’s thoughts.

 

[Brad Palmer]

Obviously hoping we regroup and go 4-0, but if we lose to Marquette and beat Gtown, PC and SH we should be a lock for NCAA Tourney at 13-7 BE/21-10 overall. But what if we lose to 1 of those 3 (so 2-2 over last 4)? Does 12-8 BE/20-11 overall record get us in? Or would we need a quarterfinal BET win? Asking for a friend.

 

[UCann]

We’re in. If we lose out then it becomes a question. The field is pretty bad when it gets to the higher seeds. Plus we have plenty of great wins on the resume.

 

[UCann]

I think one win and we’re in.

 

[navery12]

1 if we want to avoid a play-in game. Lose out and we're going to Dayton

 

[Agent0]

2 more wins and we should be a lock

 

[LStudfellow]

Sorry, but 20-11 / 12-8 does NOT guarantee us a bid. We go 2-2 and lose in the quarterfinal of the BET I predict we will be on the wrong side of the bubble.

1. An additional loss to any of Georgetown, Providence or Seton Hall will hurt our NET and look bad to the committee if we also lose to Marquette AND in the BET quarterfinal, particularly if it caused us to fall into 5th place in the conference behind Xavier, who most likely is not getting a bid.
2. The marquee OOC wins are offset by the losses to Colorado, Seton Hall (totally inexplicable and a real millstone if we fall back to the bubble) and even Dayton, who is only 8-6 and in 4th place in the A10.

The best thing we have going for us is that if we are on the Bubble the committee will most likely want to find a way to get us in as 2-time defending champions. Sure, they say they do not look at names, just the resume. But they aren't stupid and they know they want to give us a shot at the 3-peat for the potential ratings boost it brings if nothing else.

BOTTOM LINE: We better go 3-1 in these last 4 games (particularly since 3 of them are at home) and end up in 4th place in the conference going into the BET, Otherwise we could well be sweating come Selection Sunday. Just ask St. Johns and Seton Hall from last year.

 

[REB1094]

The Q3 and Q4 games (GTown and Seton Hall) are must wins. We already have a Q3 loss with Seton Hall, and Colorado is sitting near the Q2/Q3 line

Split the Q1 (MU) and Q2 (PC) games to end 21-10, win 1 in the BET to get to 22-11, and we're probably safe. Anything worse than that and I won't feel very good

 

[CTBasketball]

1 if we want to avoid a play-in game. Lose out and we're going to Dayton

This team deserves nothing more than a 40 deg rainy Tues or Wed in Dayton.

 

[Muddler]

The Big East is the weakest since….?

 

[djct1999]

We are in for sure. It would be beneficial if we avoid another bad loss.

 

[Kemba15]

Sorry, but 20-11 / 12-8 does NOT guarantee us a bid. We go 2-2 and lose in the quarterfinal of the BET I predict we will be on the wrong side of the bubble.

1. An additional loss to any of Georgetown, Providence or Seton Hall will hurt our NET and look bad to the committee if we also lose to Marquette AND in the BET quarterfinal, particularly if it caused us to fall into 5th place in the conference behind Xavier, who most likely is not getting a bid.
2. The marquee OOC wins are offset by the losses to Colorado, Seton Hall (totally inexplicable and a real millstone if we fall back to the bubble) and even Dayton, who is only 8-6 and in 4th place in the A10.

The best thing we have going for us is that if we are on the Bubble the committee will most likely want to find a way to get us in as 2-time defending champions. Sure, they say they do not look at names, just the resume. But they aren't stupid and they know they want to give us a shot at the 3-peat for the potential ratings boost it brings if nothing else.

BOTTOM LINE: We better go 3-1 in these last 4 games (particularly since 3 of them are at home) and end up in 4th place in the conference going into the BET, Otherwise we could well be sweating come Selection Sunday. Just ask St. Johns and Seton Hall from last year.

I agree 2-3 would be a very discouraging finish but the St. John's and SHU comparisons are off the mark. The committee said over and over that those and other snubs were due to a lack of Q1 wins and even more importantly non-conference wins. Our wins against Gonzaga, Baylor, and Texas (10, 30 and 40 in NET) would save us in the scenario you describe.

 

[auror]

We will not make the field with 14 losses from the Big East, so losing out means we are out. Same probably with 13. 12 losses and our good wins probably gets us in despite sketchy resume numbers (SOR is helping us out a bit as BPI is relatively high on us).

I think we need to win at least 2 including the BET, and 1 of them has to be Seton Hall at home.

 

[aburks41]

We have 4 Q1A wins. Look at the bubble this year. It's full of near .500 teams with 1 or 2 Quad1 wins. We are safely a 9 seed right now

 

[DFW HOYA]

The Big East is the weakest since….?

2020-21

 

[Mets8692]

Seems some are pretty confident we are in regardless.

I don't see it that way especially if we drop all 4. I think we would need to win the BE tourney in that case.

2-2 and we are in. Need to beat Seton Hall to avoid a Q4 loss.

The way this team is playing currently, I think we end up losing @Providence. Georgetown is a must win on Wednesday in this scenario.

 

[3rdbass]

Seems some are pretty confident we are in regardless.

I don't see it that way especially if we drop all 4. I think we would need to win the BE tourney in that case.

2-2 and we are in. Need to beat Seton Hall to avoid a Q4 loss.

The way this team is playing currently, I think we end up losing @Providence. Georgetown is a must win on Wednesday in this scenario.

Providence is really bad without Hopkins. I hope we don't lose to them but you never know.

 

[gsmooth]

Providence is really bad without Hopkins. I hope we don't lose to them but you never know.

Not only without Hopkins, but they have been without Abdur-Rahim after he had that 27 pt game against St John's, Corey Floyd Jr, and Wesley Cardett, who they just recently got back.

 

[mauconnfan]

3-1 and we’re in but a win or 2 in the BE tourney could get us outta 8-9.

2-2 better win at least one in the BE tourney so we can sleep.

 

[JB75]

I think the worst we can afford to go is 2-2 the rest of the way and a first round exit in the big east tourney(2-3) —-anything worse than that and were gonna be sweating it out. On the flipside if we win our next four games and get to the big east semis or even the final, I think the potential is there for us to be a five or six— maybe if all breaks right -a 4 seed. It shouldn’t take much 4-1 the rest of way- for us to get off that 8/9 game. Don’t want see a 1 seed in second round.

 

[RuffRuff]

Not only without Hopkins, but they have been without Abdur-Rahim after he had that 27 pt game against St John's, Corey Floyd Jr, and Wesley Cardett, who they just recently got back.

This will be PCs Super Bowl. They’d love nothing more than a season consolation prize of putting us on the bubble.

 

[giddyup]

Must break 20 wins. Can’t see us going in with 19 or worse 18. The only thing saving us is we have enough Q1wins to indicate we can be competitive in tourney depending on what team shows up on any particular day and the match up.

 

[RuffRuff]

Must break 20 wins. Can’t see us going in with 19 or worse 18. The only thing saving us is we have enough Q1wins to indicate we can be competitive in tourney depending on what team shows up on any particular day and the match up.

That would assume we go winless or win only 1 more. That is surefire bubble out territory. We’re probably not getting in at 18-14 or 19-13. Even 2 wins against SH home/Gtown home is gonna be bubbly, but still probably gets us in as a 10-11.

There are a lot of really meh basketball teams on the 10-11 line, many of which we beat head to head. We’d have to implode not to get in.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

 

[CONN78SEJ]

I think one win and we’re in.

Then we get Bama or Duke in the 1st or 2nd round, which I actually wouldn’t mind seeing.

 

[Kolumbo]

4 Wins. Or, we need at least as many wins as Creighton and Marquette. Big East will get 3 or 4 teams and UConn is floating near the bubble. Xavier may also be in the mix.