What’s the magic number?

[UCLJ0211]

4 regular season games left plus at least one (hopefully more) in the BET. What’s our magic number of wins needed to make the NCAA tourney?

While it seems we have a little bit of wiggle room from bubble territory, (most outlets have us as an 8 or 9 seed currently,) I think we need to win at least 2 more to stay in the NCAA tourney field. 3 more wins would make me more comfortable, and preferably one of those wins is against Marquette.

Curious to hear everyone else’s thoughts.

 

[Brad Palmer]

Obviously hoping we regroup and go 4-0, but if we lose to Marquette and beat Gtown, PC and SH we should be a lock for NCAA Tourney at 13-7 BE/21-10 overall. But what if we lose to 1 of those 3 (so 2-2 over last 4)? Does 12-8 BE/20-11 overall record get us in? Or would we need a quarterfinal BET win? Asking for a friend.

 

[UCann]

We’re in. If we lose out then it becomes a question. The field is pretty bad when it gets to the higher seeds. Plus we have plenty of great wins on the resume.

 

[UCann]

I think one win and we’re in.

 

[navery12]

1 if we want to avoid a play-in game. Lose out and we're going to Dayton

 

[Agent0]

2 more wins and we should be a lock

 

[LStudfellow]

Sorry, but 20-11 / 12-8 does NOT guarantee us a bid. We go 2-2 and lose in the quarterfinal of the BET I predict we will be on the wrong side of the bubble.

1. An additional loss to any of Georgetown, Providence or Seton Hall will hurt our NET and look bad to the committee if we also lose to Marquette AND in the BET quarterfinal, particularly if it caused us to fall into 5th place in the conference behind Xavier, who most likely is not getting a bid.
2. The marquee OOC wins are offset by the losses to Colorado, Seton Hall (totally inexplicable and a real millstone if we fall back to the bubble) and even Dayton, who is only 8-6 and in 4th place in the A10.

The best thing we have going for us is that if we are on the Bubble the committee will most likely want to find a way to get us in as 2-time defending champions. Sure, they say they do not look at names, just the resume. But they aren't stupid and they know they want to give us a shot at the 3-peat for the potential ratings boost it brings if nothing else.

BOTTOM LINE: We better go 3-1 in these last 4 games (particularly since 3 of them are at home) and end up in 4th place in the conference going into the BET, Otherwise we could well be sweating come Selection Sunday. Just ask St. Johns and Seton Hall from last year.