Welp, ACC stays together with a new agreement (LINK)

[UConnJim]

You guys keep leaving the ACC for dead.

Again, we do realize that it makes a lot more money than the Big 12, right? If UNC and UVa suddenly bail for the Big Ten, it’s still going to make more money than the cow conference…they might be the ones on the clock, not the ACC.

Once the ACC went to unequal revenue sharing (first Stanford and Cal and then SMU and now the lower teams in the ACC) they made the conference unattractive to new additions unless a school is desperate for a home. Big 12 schools will make more than ACC schools with the exception of the top ACC schools with the new revenue kicker. In hindsight, I would think Cal and Stanford would have joined the Big 12 over the ACC.

Who knows if anyone will leave the ACC, but we now know that they will be able to in 5 years with the exit penalty defined. The ACC all in exit penalty in 5 years is ~$75 million and the top ACC schools will receive $75 million in extra revenue over the next 5 years so FSU and Clemson should be able to afford the exit fee if they are invited to join another conference.

 

[Fishy]

I didnt say the ACC would collapse, just that it would need to be on the verge of collapse before it invited UConn. I think there is an expectation that departures would lead to a UConn invite; nah, they will invite B12 teams or Memphis et al first.

As to point 2, what if NC, VA, FSU, CLEM leave - would it still make more money?

Where are Clemson and FSU going, exactly?

 

[Kembafan]

Where are Clemson and FSU going, exactly?

FSU can go to either p2. Despite their awful 2024 they are an extremely valuable addition.

Clemson is far less attractive to the p2. My guess is both would kick the tires but ultimately not invite Clemson

 

[UConnTrumbull]

UNC and Virginia are the only ACC schools who have a ticket out. They’re just biding their time at this point. I don’t know which of the Big 12 or ACC (or neither) survive as an entity down the road. For some reason I don’t really believe in a P3. There are no major brands in the Big 12 that fit the Big Ten or SEC profile (if that even matters in a few years). Part of me thinks it’s over for us. Even if the Big 12 or ACC invited us tomorrow there would certainly be a realignment shift not in our favor in five years. 2030 is also the contractual end date for March Madness. So who knows what that will look like. Enjoy these next five years fellas.

 

[CL82]

So, who was the real winner in the FSU/Clemson/ACC litigation?

Answer: UNC.

• Especially with Belichick at the helm, they should get decent football numbers and they always get decent basketball numbers.
• They just got the cost to leave the conference quantified which will facilitate their talks with the P2.
• They did that without spending a dime on attorneys.

 

[Kolumbo]

I still don't get why people focus on state borders. Something to do with broadcast rights or something. FSU is still far more valuable in terms of brand and viewership than probably half the programs in the SEC.

I also think there are plenty of p4 programs that could move up to P2. Let's face it, the bar isn't that far out of reach when rutgers is a member.

If UConn ever gets an invite, the terms will be so sheety we'd have to hold our noses to accept it.

So the SEC could invite UNC and UVA today and would they say yes? UVA's endowment is over $14 billion. No question UVA could pull the trigger without breaking a sweat.

 

[Vowelguy]

Where are Clemson and FSU going, exactly?

You keep reading into things I haven’t said. It was a question.

 

[uconnric]

No one is going to want to merge with the Big East.


You guys keep leaving the ACC for dead.

Again, we do realize that it makes a lot more money than the Big 12, right? If UNC and UVa suddenly bail for the Big Ten, it’s still going to make more money than the cow conference…they might be the ones on the clock, not the ACC.

Long range the ACC will not survive with it's current membership intact.

 

[Fishy]

Long range the ACC will not survive with it's current membership intact.

It’s these blinding glimpses of the obvious that keep me coming back.

 

[Kolumbo]

So Total Exit fees by year:

2025 - $165 mill
2026 - $147
2027 - $129
2028 - $111
2029 - $93
2030 - $75

 

[Bobol]

I don’t think this is good for UConn because it means the ACC schools are available for poaching around 2030 or so. The Big 12 proposal for UConn would have gotten us in starting in 2031. Now we have to compete against the ACC schools for those slots. My best guess at what happens:

-Big Ten adds UNC and Miami. Virginia fits the Big Ten but they don’t add anything since the Big Ten already has the DC market with U Maryland.
-SEC adds Florida State, Clemson, NC State, and VA Tech. It’s possible they only take two of these four, in which case we’re really screwed.
-Big 12 adds the most appealing of the remaining ACC schools: Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia, and one other school. It could be SMU if they keep their football success up, it could be us, or it could be somebody else.
-ACC backfills with USF, UConn, Boise State, Gonzaga, Washington St, Oregon St, UNLV, San Diego St, Memphis, and UTSA or Tulane. Tulane is also a possibility.
-Depending on whether or not the ACC is still considered a power conference at this point, Notre Dame could depart for the Big 12 as a non-football member.
-Then again, this could all be blown up by a super league, private equity, etc.

Looks like Syracuse ends up with the ACC leftovers !

 

[pick6s]

Looks like Syracuse ends up with the ACC leftovers !

We might end up with the ACC leftovers too…

The more I think about it though, the more I think that while ACC schools will leave for the SEC and Big Ten if invited, ACC schools might not leave for the Big 12. Here’s why. The difference in revenue between the ACC and Big Ten/SEC is significant enough to make the exit fee worth paying. But after the top ACC teams leave for the Big Ten and SEC, will the difference between the ACC and Big 12 revenue be worth paying the exit fee? I don’t know if it will be. On top of that, staying in the ACC also means they’d get to share the hundreds of millions of dollars in exit fees from the ACC teams that leave for the Big Ten/SEC. To me, that’s a pretty compelling reason for ACC teams considering jumping ship for the Big 12 to stay until the end of the ACC grant of rights, or somewhere close, at which point the ACC will have added a handful of teams and survived as a second-tier power conference (along with the B12; behind the B10 and SEC) which would also solidify the amount of revenue they’d be able to get in future contracts. With the ACC solidified, I’m not sure the difference between the ACC and Big 12 media deals (post 2036 when the ACC GOR expires) would be substantial enough for school to leave the ACC, especially when additional travel costs are factored in.

 

[UConnJim]

We might end up with the ACC leftovers too…

The more I think about it though, the more I think that while ACC schools will leave for the SEC and Big Ten if invited, ACC schools might not leave for the Big 12. Here’s why. The difference in revenue between the ACC and Big Ten/SEC is significant enough to make the exit fee worth paying. But after the top ACC teams leave for the Big Ten and SEC, will the difference between the ACC and Big 12 revenue be worth paying the exit fee? I don’t know if it will be. On top of that, staying in the ACC also means they’d get to share the hundreds of millions of dollars in exit fees from the ACC teams that leave for the Big Ten/SEC. To me, that’s a pretty compelling reason for ACC teams considering jumping ship for the Big 12 to stay until the end of the ACC grant of rights, or somewhere close, at which point the ACC will have added a handful of teams and survived as a second-tier power conference (along with the B12; behind the B10 and SEC) which would also solidify the amount of revenue they’d be able to get in future contracts. With the ACC solidified, I’m not sure the difference between the ACC and Big 12 media deals (post 2036 when the ACC GOR expires) would be substantial enough for school to leave the ACC, especially when additional travel costs are factored in.

Here a couple of counterpoints. In hindsight, would Stanford and Cal choose the ACC over the Big 12 given their reduced payout and travel? TV ratings for Big 12 football were higher than ACC football this year even with FSU and Clemson still in the ACC. Why is ACC football after key schools leave more valuable than the Big 12? If enough ACC schools want to leave, would they vote to dissolve the conference in 2030/2031? Why can't the Big 12 form an eastern pod, a midwest pod and a west pod to improve rivalries and reduce travel?

 

[Rufus]

2030 is "coincidentally" the same year the B1G's current media rights end.

 

[How Sway?!]

Here a couple of counterpoints. In hindsight, would Stanford and Cal choose the ACC over the Big 12 given their reduced payout and travel? TV ratings for Big 12 football were higher than ACC football this year even with FSU and Clemson still in the ACC. Why is ACC football after key schools leave more valuable than the Big 12? If enough ACC schools want to leave, would they vote to dissolve the conference in 2030/2031? Why can't the Big 12 form an eastern pod, a midwest pod and a west pod to improve rivalries and reduce travel?

Yes, because for Stanford and Cal, being associated with the likes of Duke, UVA and UNC is worth a whole lot more than $20 million extra they would get in the B12.

 

[UConnJim]

Yes, because for Stanford and Cal, being associated with the likes of Duke, UVA and UNC is worth a whole lot more than $20 million extra they would get in the B12.

Have you seen the travel for Stanford athletics? Men's basketball has 3 East Coast and 1 Midwest trips with games on Wednesday and Saturday, so away from campus from Tuesday to Sunday. Baseball has 5 East Coast series. Women's lacrosse plays 3 East Coast and 2 Midwest games. Look at the complaints out of Mick Cronin at UCLA about travel in the Big 10.

For Stanford and Cal, the ACC travel is brutal. Ultimately, there has to be a West Coast pod for whatever conference Stanford and Cal end up in.

 

[Kolumbo]

Yes, because for Stanford and Cal, being associated with the likes of Duke, UVA and UNC is worth a whole lot more than $20 million extra they would get in the B12.

Is it really worth more to be associated with those schools rather than Arizona, Utah, Kansas, Baylor? Cal ($3 billion endowment) and Stanford ($38 billion endowment) can overlook differences in conference affiliation and the final configurations are uncertain. Plus they are in the ultra-liberal capital of the USA. One would think they would give travel and global warming at least some consideration, let alone what is in the best interest of the student-athletes. Cal Berkeley especially should just join a conference with the rest of the California state universities.

example from Bearinsider.com. They think they need a Big Ten invite or are doomed.
"So basically, Knowlton F*ed us over in the most critical junture of our athletic program by keeping Wilcox in this position for so long, that the lifeboat/lifeline that we got will basically mean that we will never see the full revenue share and be an equal standing partner in this conference."

"What we do have right now is a landing pad. By 2030 it's once again Big 10 or bust. If we don't make it, we will be begging for a B12 invite at...once again, reduce share for X years. In all honesty though, we probably won't get an invite to the Big 12 and it ends big time football here at Cal."

 

[Stinger92860]

so away from campus from Tuesday to Sunday.

They don‘t care anymore. These are professional athletes being paid for the revenue producing sports. The other athletes are collateral damage. It comes down to revenue and net income after travel costs and other costs. if they are making enough money they could care less about the student-athletes. Many classes are available online.

 

[Rufus]

Settlement in ACC lawsuit a 'win, win, win' for Florida State athletics. Here's why

A change in the ACC's revenue-distribution model and cheaper fee for exiting the conference means Florida State came out on top – with some caveats.

www.tallahassee.com

 

[Rufus]

Predicting where ACC schools will land now that they can be poached by the SEC & Big Ten

The ACC’s days as a stable power conference are officially numbered. With the recent settlement, we now have a concrete exit fee that decreases year by year, m

saturdayblitz.com

 

[UConnJim]

They don‘t care anymore. These are professional athletes being paid for the revenue producing sports. The other athletes are collateral damage. It comes down to revenue and net income after travel costs and other costs. if they are making enough money they could care less about the student-athletes. Many classes are available online.

Football probably doesn't matter, but Stanford has a ton of sports and I do know athletes in some of those sports aren't happy with the travel.

 

[Ha Who]

Football probably doesn't matter, but Stanford has a ton of sports and I do know athletes in some of those sports aren't happy with the travel.

Tough luck. Plenty of division three schools. Take a look at academia and their bloated budgets and myriad other issues. These are the people that got taken by the networks.

 

[pick6s]

Here a couple of counterpoints. In hindsight, would Stanford and Cal choose the ACC over the Big 12 given their reduced payout and travel? TV ratings for Big 12 football were higher than ACC football this year even with FSU and Clemson still in the ACC. Why is ACC football after key schools leave more valuable than the Big 12? If enough ACC schools want to leave, would they vote to dissolve the conference in 2030/2031? Why can't the Big 12 form an eastern pod, a midwest pod and a west pod to improve rivalries and reduce travel?

Q: In hindsight, would Stanford and Cal choose the ACC over the Big 12 given their reduced payout and travel?
A: Circumstances in 2030 will be different from the ones a few years ago. The Big 12 would likely prefer to expand east, not west. Meanwhile, the ACC will likely look to expand west, giving Cal and Stanford some more geographically-friendly conference mates. Wash St, Oregon St, Boise St, Gonzaga, San Diego St, and UNLV are all possibilities. Having said that, one major reason Stanford and Cal preferred the ACC was they wanted to be in a league with prestigious schools like UNC, Florida State, Miami, etc. Some or all of those schools likely won't be in the ACC by 2030 or so though.

Q: TV ratings for Big 12 football were higher than ACC football this year even with FSU and Clemson still in the ACC. Why is ACC football after key schools leave more valuable than the Big 12?
A: There are more factors to consider than just TV ratings. Which networks were broadcasting the games? Which other games were on at the time? Etc, etc. Remember, the question in 2030 for teams debating going from the ACC to the B12 won't be whether the B12 will be just superior. Assuming it is- which is no sure thing- is the difference between the two big enough to justify giving up $100M or more? That comes from the $75M exit fee plus a share of the departing teams' exit fees; it's likely that at least four teams depart for the B10/SEC, so that's at least $300M to be split among the 14 remaining schools. The upcoming ACC situation kind of reminds me of the situation the B12 faced a few years ago. When Texas and Oklahoma announced they were leaving, lots of people thought the conference was screwed. Instead, they're survived and are doing reasonably well. I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC was on a pretty similar level to the B12 after the departures.

Q: If enough ACC schools want to leave, would they vote to dissolve the conference in 2030/2031?
A: It depends on the ACC's bylaws but I think the chances are low. Dissolving the conference would surely require at least 51% agreement and likely higher than that. There is probably a maximum of 10 slots available in the other three conferences, and that's assuming all three go to 20 teams, which is not a given. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that more than 10/18 teams would be interested in dissolving the conference, and I suspect the threshold for dissolving it is closer to 2/3 or 3/4.

Q: Why can't the Big 12 form an eastern pod, a midwest pod and a west pod to improve rivalries and reduce travel?
A: The Big 12 could totally do that. It's entirely possible- but not nearly certain- that Cal and Stanford eventually leave the ACC for the B12, but I doubt it will happen in 2030. The cost would probably be too steep. It might happen closer to the ACC GOR expiration date in 2036, but that's ten years from now and who the heck knows what the situation will be at that time.