Our schedule is relatively weaker this year than most years, but still it is stronger than most national championship contenders before they hit their conference schedule. After teams start their conference schedule our competition is much weaker.
That means there is pressure on us to not have a slip up before everyone hits the conference schedule because we have few opportunities to make up for it with a big win. The Big East seems relatively weaker this year as well, so our seeding upside is pretty well determined before the conference schedule, with the exception of two significant OOC games later in the year.
If we sweep all our OOC games, we are very likely to be the #1 overall seed. If we lose one of them, I think we could still be one of the four top seeds, but we are somewhat at the mercy of how other teams do. Basically we probably need to have fewer losses than the winner of the Power 4 conferences to stay ahead of them.
The good news is a team has to be pretty exceptional to get thru those conference schedules unscathed. I think the odds of one team winning all their conference games in the Power 4 is not very high, whereas it is almost expected for us. Our season is try to hold serve OOC where we will be favored in every game, while rooting for the top teams in the Power 4 to knock each other off every once in a while.
We start in the top position and probably have the best chance in the country to run the table, but if we do lose one, we probably need the other top teams to lose two to stay ahead of them, but that could happen. I suspect if we lost two, our upside would be a number 2 seed, but time will tell.