We need to stop listening to the "Big East Sucks" Doom and Gloomers

[UConnDan97]

Another post how we are not Ohio State or Alabama. I had not considered that. You must be the smartest sports poster on the internet to have performed this amazingly deep analysis.

Oh look, another straw man!

Nova doesn't have to be Ohio State. They don't have to pay their football team tens of millions of dollars. But they DO have to be a top tier basketball program for this conference to succeed, whether you want to admit it or not...

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Our entire system of higher education may look completely different in 10 years, so no, I can not predict exactly what will happen to the Big East. A few predictions I am willing to make:

1) At least one major public university will have a complete financial collapse in the next 10 years, effectively going bankrupt and needing a bailout or major austerity program just to survive. WVU, Kentucky, Auburn, Arizona and Arizona State are my top choices, but many major universities, including UConn, are possibilities. This has nothing to do with athletics. Many of these universities are in completely unsustainable financial trajectories.

Agreed, but I believe the will be more (in terms of quantity, not overall size of student bodies) private schools that will need to close shop. Quality schools won't have a problem (especially those with large endowments) but there are a number of mediocre schools that are around solely because they will accept kids unable to get into elite schools.

2) There will be less than 200 schools playing D1 basketball in 10-15 years unless the definition of D1 basketball is changed in some form to accommodate major conference programs and minor universities.

Agree for the most part. I believe the number will end up slightly above 200 but we are on the same page here.

3) I think there is about a 50% chance football breaks off completely from other sports either by choice or because of litigation.

I don't see this happening. Those in current power conferences know that this is what gives them their advantage. They won't willingly give this up and have the ability to wait out the slow, inevitable move of non-power schools to a tier below in other revenue sports.

There really isn't a lot that can be used as grounds for litigation here. All schools have had the opportunity to choose if they did or did not want to field a football team and there are very few D1 schools that did not have a football program at one time. Most voluntarily chose to downgrade or eliminate the program.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Agreed, but I believe the will be more (in terms of quantity, not overall size of student bodies) private schools that will need to close shop. Quality schools won't have a problem (especially those with large endowments) but there are a number of mediocre schools that are around solely because they will accept kids unable to get into elite schools.


Agree for the most part. I believe the number will end up slightly above 200 but we are on the same page here.


I don't see this happening. Those in current power conferences know that this is what gives them their advantage. They won't willingly give this up and have the ability to wait out the slow, inevitable move of non-power schools to a tier below in other revenue sports.

There really isn't a lot that can be used as grounds for litigation here. All schools have had the opportunity to choose if they did or did not want to field a football team and there are very few D1 schools that did not have a football program at one time. Most voluntarily chose to downgrade or eliminate the program.

1) Many small private schools are going to shut down. Not a lot of insight there. It is rapidly happening already. While scale may seem like a good thing, there are a lot of gigantic, mediocre or bad universities, that have major overhead problems. A small school can pivot or merge with other schools to share administrations. It is a lot harder for a big school wresting with the Demographic Cliff to make that pivot with their overhead. I can see a Tier 4 school like Kentucky struggling to attract on campus students. The MAC is basically cooked. Several of those schools are going to have to combine. There just aren't going to be enough kids interested in an open admission quality education in Ohio for all of those MAC schools

3) Bundling is a factor in about half of all anti-trust litigation, and the NCAA/P4 track record in court with anti-trust cases is already .

 

[Kolumbo]

1) Many small private schools are going to shut down. Not a lot of insight there. It is rapidly happening already. While scale may seem like a good thing, there are a lot of gigantic, mediocre or bad universities, that have major overhead problems. A small school can pivot or merge with other schools to share administrations. It is a lot harder for a big school wresting with the Demographic Cliff to make that pivot with their overhead. I can see a Tier 4 school like Kentucky struggling to attract on campus students. The MAC is basically cooked. Several of those schools are going to have to combine. There just aren't going to be enough kids interested in an open admission quality education in Ohio for all of those MAC schools

3) Bundling is a factor in about half of all anti-trust litigation, and the NCAA/P4 track record in court with anti-trust cases is already .

I know you state that often, the demographic cliff. I don't think the Universities are going to struggle quite as much as you think they will. Yes, the trades are a great route for people who don't want to go to college. People with degrees often go into the trades. Maybe Universities will start offering degrees which somehow include the trades and that will bump enrollment. There's a thought. I mean, lots of bad contractors out there because they are either stupd, uneducated, lazy, or just bad businessmen. They do awful work, they quit half-way through a job, they borrow more than they can afford and go bankrupt. Hire a contractor with a BS in Small Business & Contracting Management and that guy will do well.

Some of the MAC schools are very good academically. I haven't looked at the data but if MAC schools are more affordable than Big Ten schools, they will probably be OK. I mean, for many degrees an education at Ohio, Miami or Toledo will serve you just as well as one from Michigan State. I'll bet CCSU is doing well partly because many CT kids can't get into UConn anymore. Meanwhile the CT town I live in is experiencing growth in the student population. In CT.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I know you state that often, the demographic cliff. I don't think the Universities are going to struggle quite as much as you think they will.

You should tell the universities that because they are freaking out.

 

[pepband99]

Our entire system of higher education may look completely different in 10 years, so no, I can not predict exactly what will happen to the Big East. A few predictions I am willing to make:

1) At least one major public university will have a complete financial collapse in the next 10 years, effectively going bankrupt and needing a bailout or major austerity program just to survive. WVU, Kentucky, Auburn, Arizona and Arizona State are my top choices, but many major universities, including UConn, are possibilities. This has nothing to do with athletics. Many of these universities are in completely unsustainable financial trajectories.

2) There will be less than 200 schools playing D1 basketball in 10-15 years unless the definition of D1 basketball is changed in some form to accommodate major conference programs and minor universities.

3) I think there is about a 50% chance football breaks off completely from other sports either by choice or because of litigation.

Few data points:

Absolutely nothing will happen before 2032 on a macro front. I keep seeing "antitrust," but contracts in law are the big gun. When you have the NCAA funded through 2032 via Turner paying for the men's tournament, that keeps things civil.

I think 1 is somewhat likely, but it will take a big move on student loan reform to do it.

For 3 - "break off" is too vague. Again - 2032. That's a ton of money to give up for "breaking off," and if anything, the tea leaves seem to be pointing to the sports media rights gravy train slowing down, so who backs up the truck to offset the loss?

 

[CL82]

Seth Davis's take, sort of


Personally, I think Willard just needed to get out of town ahead of the posse, but I'd like the narrative that a big school is a better designation than a big 10 school.

(And, no Nova isn't the best job in college basketball.)

 

[Waquoit]

I'll give you Cooley because his 6 million is up there for sure. Pitino is making 3.3 million, making him #41. Not the flex you think it is.

Flex enough to destroy your original point. You used bold type and "let that sink in" and you had the facts wrong.

 

[Kolumbo]

You should tell the universities that because they are freaking out.

State universities serve vital roles. Maybe they are freaking out because they may have fewer students requiring fewer staff, I don't know. Connecticut has done a great job of running itself into debt and yet there are no worries for UConn. I think they'll be fine.

 

[UConnDan97]

Flex enough to destroy your original point. You used bold type and "let that sink in" and you had the facts wrong.

If you think that having 2 coaches out of the top 40 is destroying my point about a lack of investment from this conference, then you aren't good at understanding points...

 

[noeynox]

If you think that having 2 coaches out of the top 40 is destroying my point about a lack of investment from this conference, then you aren't good at understanding points...

How many should they have in the top 40? Sheez man. You're trying to hard to crap on the league. They just took a coach from a school in the P2. All things considered, that ain't bad.

 

[UConnDan97]

How many should they have in the top 40? Sheez man. You're trying to hard to crap on the league. They just took a coach from a school in the P2. All things considered, that ain't bad.

I'm not trying to crap on the league. Good God, everyone is having trouble reading lately.

My point was, and still is, that we NEED the Big East to step up their b-ball investment. I've already stated that we are the best non P4 league out there, and I've stated it multiple times.

Nova finally decided to go big and replace Neptune. Great. That's what we need. Schools like Seton Hall and DePaul and Providence are going to need to step up too. You should know more than most on this board that I was "all in" on Independent football and Big East Olympics. And it saved both.

This is an arms race. The entire Elite Eight were P4 schools. If half of our schools in the conference don't invest heavily (despite being in some of the highest population cities in the country), then we are our own worst enemy...

 

[noeynox]

I'm not trying to crap on the league. Good God, everyone is having trouble reading lately.

My point was, and still is, that we NEED the Big East to step up their b-ball investment. I've already stated that we are the best non P4 league out there, and I've stated it multiple times.

Nova finally decided to go big and replace Neptune. Great. That's what we need. Schools like Seton Hall and DePaul and Providence are going to need to step up too. You should know more than most on this board that I was "all in" on Independent football and Big East Olympics. And it saved both.

This is an arms race. The entire Elite Eight were P4 schools. If half of our schools in the conference don't invest heavily (despite being in some of the highest population cities in the country), then we are our own worst enemy...

I assume Willard will give the league 3 in the top 40. How many is enough? Not every school in the BE can or will approach that. Just like many in the P5 won't. Hurley got that money after succeeding here. The goal shouldn't be to outspend for coaches, that is silly. Hire the right guy, and if he succeeds pay to keep him.

 

[UConnDan97]

I assume Willard will give the league 3 in the top 40. How many is enough? Not every school in the BE can or will approach that. Just like many in the P5 won't. Hurley got that money after succeeding here. The goal shouldn't be to outspend for coaches, that is silly. Hire the right guy, and if he succeeds pay to keep him.

The coaching salary is only 1 part of the equation. Another big part is NIL money, as you already know. We've already heard reports about Seton Hall having scarce resources there. So having Holloway there (who I believe is the "right guy") doesn't mean a hell of a lot because he can't put the right squad together...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Few data points:

Absolutely nothing will happen before 2032 on a macro front. I keep seeing "antitrust," but contracts in law are the big gun. When you have the NCAA funded through 2032 via Turner paying for the men's tournament, that keeps things civil.

I think 1 is somewhat likely, but it will take a big move on student loan reform to do it.

For 3 - "break off" is too vague. Again - 2032. That's a ton of money to give up for "breaking off," and if anything, the tea leaves seem to be pointing to the sports media rights gravy train slowing down, so who backs up the truck to offset the loss?

You think everything is fine with the higher education industry, I do not. We will find out who is right.

 

[hank970]

I'm not trying to crap on the league. Good God, everyone is having trouble reading lately.

My point was, and still is, that we NEED the Big East to step up their b-ball investment. I've already stated that we are the best non P4 league out there, and I've stated it multiple times.

Nova finally decided to go big and replace Neptune. Great. That's what we need. Schools like Seton Hall and DePaul and Providence are going to need to step up too. You should know more than most on this board that I was "all in" on Independent football and Big East Olympics. And it saved both.

This is an arms race. The entire Elite Eight were P4 schools. If half of our schools in the conference don't invest heavily (despite being in some of the highest population cities in the country), then we are our own worst enemy...

Methinks you folks attach way too much importance to having NYC, Philly, and other eastern seaboard towns in your neighborhood. Their large populations, none of which is particularly invested in college athletics, mean little in terms of program success. Case in point: with the exception of Houston and maybe Duke (if you take into account Durham's proximity to Raleigh), none of the teams in the Elite Eight is located in a high population center. Clearly, other factors define success.

As regards football, consider a place like Tuscaloosa or even the whole state of Alabama. If there were a strong correlation between population and money, then how would you explain the University of Alabama's success monetarily and on the gridiron?

 

[pepband99]

You think everything is fine with the higher education industry, I do not. We will find out who is right.

How did your strawman-o-matic get that from "I think 1 is somewhat likely?" I agreed with you.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

How did your strawman-o-matic get that from "I think 1 is somewhat likely?" I agreed with you.

You think things can stay as they are with both higher education and with broadcast media of college sports for 7 years. That is the most spectacularly optimistic assessment I have read of that industry on the entire internet. That is a level of blowing rainbow bubbles out the butt of a unicorn that is truly unprecedented. I am sure that every college administrator hopes you are right.

 

[pepband99]

You think things can stay as they are with both higher education and with broadcast media of college sports for 7 years. That is the most spectacularly optimistic assessment I have read of that industry on the entire internet. That is a level of blowing rainbow bubbles out the butt of a unicorn that is truly unprecedented. I am sure that every college administrator hopes you are right.

Err - ok. Maybe fire up your argument bot again, and see if if comes back with something remotely tied to what i said.

My point is - every seismic movement in athletics has been a black swan event triggering it. The collapse of the PAC12, NIL, the House Settlement, etc.

Even with all that chaos, the NCAA/Turner deal hasn't budged. The humongous check solves a lot of problems that people have with the setup. It is more likely it will continue to, at least for the next 7 years. Who knows? The reneg of this contract might trigger the breakup - it's certainly possible.

 

[ScottVib]

It’ll be interesting to see how things play out. The FBS schools are worried that the non-football schools will be able to outspend them on basketball… with the article throwing out $7M for the roster spend, but for the top non-FBS conference that would represent 100% of their media revenue, the biggest contributor to (most of) their budgets. That is of course before you take into account coaching salaries, facilities, and of course the rest of the sports within the athletic department.

It’ll be interesting to see how the schools navigate things as they figure out how to allocate resources and who/whom is most successful in securing more resources (between in-house NIL and/or other innovations). I think between budgetary and enrollment realities it’s going to be a tough sell to go back to the well for even more institutional support, so ADs are going to have to get creative.

 

[Waquoit]

If you think that having 2 coaches out of the top 40 is destroying my point about a lack of investment from this conference, then you aren't good at understanding points...

You are literally pointless. Where's the alleged lack of investment? The one example you gave was inaccurate. Villanova didn't "go on the cheap" to replace Wright, they got who they thought was their up-and-coming guy. When it didn't work, then they shelled out a ton of dough for the next guy. Just last year SJU, G'Town and DePaul ponied up for improved coaches. Creighton and UConn resigned their top coaches. Xavier replaced a name coach with a name coach. The Big East is known for having a strong, if not the strongest slate of coaches. And you use that to insist the Big East doesn't invest. Is every day opposite day in Danworld?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Err - ok. Maybe fire up your argument bot again, and see if if comes back with something remotely tied to what i said.

My point is - every seismic movement in athletics has been a black swan event triggering it. The collapse of the PAC12, NIL, the House Settlement, etc.

Even with all that chaos, the NCAA/Turner deal hasn't budged. The humongous check solves a lot of problems that people have with the setup. It is more likely it will continue to, at least for the next 7 years. Who knows? The reneg of this contract might trigger the breakup - it's certainly possible.

The higher education business model in the U.S. is disintegrating before our eyes. Between demographic cliffs, massive cuts to research budgets, brain drains of immigrant professors, and endowment taxes, sports are not a priority for any college president, and breakeven with athletics is not good enough. They need to squeeze every nickel they can out of every place they can. See Maryland not paying for an extra night of hotel rooms.

Those 3 black swan events all happened within the last three years. Black swan events are supposed to be an every 10 year thing, not an every 1 year thing. And just because everything has not collapsed does not mean anything is OK. I think you have an absurdly optimistic view of the future of the U.S. university system.

 

[UConnDan97]

You are literally pointless. Where's the alleged lack of investment? The one example you gave was inaccurate. Villanova didn't "go on the cheap" to replace Wright, they got who they thought was their up-and-coming guy. When it didn't work, then they shelled out a ton of dough for the next guy. Just last year SJU, G'Town and DePaul ponied up for improved coaches. Creighton and UConn resigned their top coaches. Xavier replaced a name coach with a name coach. The Big East is known for having a strong, if not the strongest slate of coaches. And you use that to insist the Big East doesn't invest. Is every day opposite day in Danworld?

In the last 3 years since Jay Wright left (after a final Four appearance and 30 wins), Nova went .500, 2 games above .500, and 4 games above .500. They haven't had 20 wins since he left. But Nova didn't go on the cheap with both coach and NIL?? I must have missed all the Big East teams in the Elite Eight, but I guess it must be my tv reception in Opposite Danworld.

Bottom line: I WANT the Big East to succeed. Without their success, UConn gets hurt. It's as simple as that. Not sure why people can't comprehend that here. But it's also hard to understand how people think the Big East is collectively doing everything in their power when we don't get a team in Elite Eight a year after having only qualified 3 teams last year. My interest is only in UConn's best interest, and I hope the other teams start to up their interest...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

In the last 3 years since Jay Wright left (after a final Four appearance and 30 wins), Nova went .500, 2 games above .500, and 4 games above .500. They haven't had 20 wins since he left. But Nova didn't go on the cheap with both coach and NIL?? I must have missed all the Big East teams in the Elite Eight, but I guess it must be my tv reception in Opposite Danworld.

Bottom line: I WANT the Big East to succeed. Without their success, UConn gets hurt. It's as simple as that. Not sure why people can't comprehend that here. But it's also hard to understand how people think the Big East is collectively doing everything in their power when we don't get a team in Elite Eight a year after having only qualified 3 teams last year. My interest is only in UConn's best interest, and I hope the other teams start to up their interest...

I try to take you seriously, and then you drop the stupid 3 teams from 2024 argument, which is a completely dishonest argument. The Big East was really strong last year, but other than St. Johns, no one else was even close to a bid last year. That is just the way it worked out. This year, the Big 10 had the first two out. Are you arguing that there is a wide-ranging conspiracy against the Big 10?

 

[UConnDan97]

I try to take you seriously, and then you drop the stupid 3 teams from 2024 argument, which is a completely dishonest argument. The Big East was really strong last year, but other than St. Johns, no one else was even close to a bid last year. That is just the way it worked out. This year, the Big 10 had the first two out. Are you arguing that there is a wide-ranging conspiracy against the Big 10?

A conspiracy against the Big 10???

What on earth are you ever talking about, Nelson? They had 8 teams qualify for this year's tournament! The second most of any conference. I swear you just throw words on a page to see if anything makes sense. It doesn't.

I'll bow out of this conversation because it's clear that people just want to argue about nonsense...