Way Too Early 2017-18 rankings

[Fairfield Fan]

UConn looks very strong next year. But so do Baylor and South Carolina and Mississippi State. I have doubts about Notre Dame, because I wouldn't be surprised if Brionna Turner doesn't return to form after her ACL tear. I recall that Stanford's Jayne Appel was never the same dominant player after her knee injury that she was before it. So if ND is missing the pre-injury Turner AND its point guard, I can't see them making the Final Four next year.

I think Oregon shouldn't be judged on its pre-tournament season. From the Pac-23 tournament, they ended up beating four of five highly ranked teams, only losing to Stanford and then UConn. I think this team is evolving quickly and that it will be a more formidable Oregon come November onwards.

Texas is getting more and more and more great players. Joyner Holmes won't be a freshman anymore, and they'll have even more help. Watch out!

I think WCBB will be much more top-heavy next year with really talented and very experienced teams, unlike the relatively young teams this year that lost to everyone. Very even this year. Shouldn't be so egalitarian next year.

 

[mtsuraider06]

I was thinking about them with Deshields back. That will be an interesting team next season. Why can't Duke and Tennessee play a home and home. I want to see that game so badly.

It was supposed to start this past season, but had to be pushed back. I think it starts next season, but I could be wrong.

 

[UcMiami]

Just went to Massey and Sagarin sites to see how their computer models dealt with the end of the year - in Massey the top six are now
Uconn, SC, MSS, Baylor, Stanford, ND and Uconn still has a significant ratings lead, while the last three are a dead heat.

In Sagarin:
Uconn, Baylor, SC, MSS, ND, UW (MD at 7, Stanford at 8) Uconn still has a comfortable lead over Baylor is ratings, but the significant gap is between Uconn/Baylor and everyone else - Baylor being much closer to Uconn than SC is to Baylor in anything about his 'recent' column.

Doesn't the coaches poll typically have a final poll after the FF? I wonder whether SC will get the #1 spot, and suspect they might not.

 

[johnnyc]

South Carolina is #1 until they lose.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Just went to Massey and Sagarin sites to see how their computer models dealt with the end of the year - in Massey the top six are now
Uconn, SC, MSS, Baylor, Stanford, ND and Uconn still has a significant ratings lead, while the last three are a dead heat.

In Sagarin:
Uconn, Baylor, SC, MSS, ND, UW (MD at 7, Stanford at 8) Uconn still has a comfortable lead over Baylor is ratings, but the significant gap is between Uconn/Baylor and everyone else - Baylor being much closer to Uconn than SC is to Baylor in anything about his 'recent' column.

Doesn't the coaches poll typically have a final poll after the FF? I wonder whether SC will get the #1 spot, and suspect they might not.

Usually, the top 4 are based on the Final Four. I expect SC to be first, but UConn might have some first or second place votes.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Just went to Massey and Sagarin sites to see how their computer models dealt with the end of the year - in Massey the top six are now
Uconn, SC, MSS, Baylor, Stanford, ND and Uconn still has a significant ratings lead, while the last three are a dead heat.

In Sagarin:
Uconn, Baylor, SC, MSS, ND, UW (MD at 7, Stanford at 8) Uconn still has a comfortable lead over Baylor is ratings, but the significant gap is between Uconn/Baylor and everyone else - Baylor being much closer to Uconn than SC is to Baylor in anything about his 'recent' column.

Doesn't the coaches poll typically have a final poll after the FF? I wonder whether SC will get the #1 spot, and suspect they might not.

Looking at the most recent (mid-March) poll:

We beat:

#2 ND by 11 at their place
#3 SC by 11
#4 MD at their place
#5 Baylor by 11
#10 FSU at their place
#11 Ohio State comfortably
#14 Texas fairly comfortably
#15 UCLA by about 15
#19 DePaul by a bunch
#21 Syracuse by a bunch
#24 Kansas State comfortably

And lost to:

#7 Mississippi State at the buzzer in OT

 

[ochoopsfan]

I will wait until Creme comes out with a 2018 Bracket this summer. He knows everything!!

 

[LasVegasYank]

I don't care about pre-season polls.

Anyways, it won't take UConn long to right the ship and eventually assume the #1 mantle.

 

[Vowelguy]

South Carolina is #1 until they lose.

The NC is not a title belt. You don't retain it until someone beats you.
A ranking is merely an assessment of teams quality at that point in time.

 

[oldude]

I do think SC starts next season at #1, and not just because they won the championship this year. As much as I know it pains Gamecock fans to admit it, once the team got used to playing without Coates, they were a much better team.

Nothing against Coates's ability, but having the twin towers on the floor together limited SC on both ends of the court. Without Coates, Gray and Davis started attacking the paint on offense. Bianca-Cuevas could play the 2 guard, where she was far more effective, and Wilson was free to wreak havoc going to the basket.

On the defensive end, SC was much quicker attacking the passing lanes and closing on shooters.

UConn should be #2. If both teams navigate their respective schedules unscathed, there will be a clash of Titans in Columbia in February when the previous 2 national champions could potentially face each other to determine the top team in the country.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Have Gray and Davis made announcements about leaving or staying? They will drop without them.

 

[Vowelguy]

I have no problem with someone voting SC #1 if they think they are the stronger team next year. That's what a poll is - people's assessment of the relative strength of teams.

It's when folks believe that a team "deserves" a ranking based on something else that I take issue.

 

[BroadwayVa]

No doubt UConn had the shakes but Miss State's inspired play had a lot to do with that.....if MS just rolled over our team would have righted the ship eventually.....who's to say that South Carolina wouldn't have done the same to us...bottom line.....they won, they return their players and add some good ones..they deserve the #1 slot for now......when they loose a game they will most likely loose their #1 spot to the "rightful owners"......

I watched the whole USC/Miss St game---interesting and to me not much fun--but much of that was due to Miss St's defense.
One stat on the game screen said Ms St got the call on 83 charge this year--up to that point in the game the got none. That is why Uconn was trampling Bulldogs all late night.
Both teams OBVIOUSLY deserved to be there---they won the prelims fair and square. US Carolina is the National Champ--and won it beating two tough teams ---Stanford and Miss St. TRUE--they own that championship---a better team than we played at game 100.
But my question about YOUR neighbor, going to ARKANSAS---will he succeed where Sykes failed???
The highlighted portion above is the way I SEE THE NUMBER ONE BEING HANDLED--UNLESS A TEAM LOSES MOST OF IT'S TOP TALENT ALA 2016

 

[Charliebball]

I watched the whole USC/Miss St game---interesting and to me not much fun--but much of that was due to Miss St's defense.

But my question about YOUR neighbor, going to ARKANSAS---will he succeed where Sykes failed???
The highlighted portion above is the way I SEE THE NUMBER ONE BEING HANDLED--UNLESS A TEAM LOSES MOST OF IT'S TOP TALENT ALA 2016

I don't know enough about the Arkansas program to make that judgement but he sure doesn't have to go too far to find some very fertile recruiting areas.........gotta be easier then Washington............

 

[SCspur]

Have Gray and Davis made announcements about leaving or staying? They will drop without them.

They would have to make their announcement by today and with the parade and all the celebrating today in Columbia I doubt they will leave early but you never know.

 

[nwhoopfan]

gotta be easier then Washington

What makes you think that? Seattle area produces talent regularly, Spokane and Yakima are surprisingly talent rich, and everyone in the Pac 12 recruits in California which is overflowing w/ talent on a yearly basis.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I don't know enough about the Arkansas program to make that judgement but he sure doesn't have to go too far to find some very fertile recruiting areas....gotta be easier then Washington..

He is sitting in the middle of some great recruiting areas---Arkansas, Okla, Texas , Lou, Tn''' some fair level of talent has come out of those states ( I didn't mention Georgia--too far away) Thanks Charilie--in reading your comments about recruits--I was sure you know everyone..

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

@vowelguy, glad you started the thread!

A few thoughts...

- Notre Dame lost Turner to an ACL injury. Doubt she will be ready to go next year based on the severity of the injury. That means there will be a lot of Westbeld/Nelson lineups and Patterson may play a lot as a freshman. It hurts having that consistent presence inside. Also, losing a four-year starter at the point in Allen is going to be difficult to replace. Thompson is not the playmaker that Allen was.

- Baylor losing Jones and Prince will hurt quite a bit. You are taking the two best outside shooters plus the two secondary playmakers behind Wallace. Plus Jones had the ability to create her shot off the dribble any time she wanted. There is plenty of young talent, but there will need to be players who step up as shooters, but most importantly playmakers. The team could be inconsistent to start.

Also, the loss of Nina Davis means Baylor is losing close to 40 ppg with Davis, Prince, and Jones. There will need to be players who take significant steps forward and show the ability to score; otherwise, teams can just double team Brown and shut Baylor down.

- Duke will be interesting. If Jade Williams and Mikayla Boykin come in and live up, the team will be very good. But losing Lambert hurts (she might be able to go later in the year, but I doubt it). Cooper and Chidom were not consistent, but provided some post depth. That will be missing next year, as Duke's is thin in the post, in terms of bodies and talent.

- A healthy Ohio State could easily be ranked in the top four.

 

[Florida Fan]

South Carolina should be ranked #1 as they are the defending champs....it will be interesting to watch how they handle having the big target on their backs all of next season.....the Gamecocks will learn very quickly that it is much more difficult to be the hunted then the hunter....Geno gave away his Olympic coaching spot to Dawn and now she goes and takes his NCAA Championship too!!....he may deny it but I think he will be a man on a mission next year......hope the UConn players are ready for what's to come.....

SC peaked at the right time. Losing Coates opened things up, the guards got better. Cuevas-Moore was able to wheel and deal. They were better than MSU, and deserve to be number one. Dawn will have her hands full, but she'll have a season to find her way back to the final four. Geno will be waiting.

 

[CocoHusky]

@vowelguy, glad you started the thread!

A few thoughts...

- Notre Dame lost Turner to an ACL injury. Doubt she will be ready to go next year based on the severity of the injury. That means there will be a lot of Westbeld/Nelson lineups and Patterson may play a lot as a freshman. It hurts having that consistent presence inside. Also, losing a four-year starter at the point in Allen is going to be difficult to replace. Thompson is not the playmaker that Allen was.

- Baylor losing Jones and Prince will hurt quite a bit. You are taking the two best outside shooters plus the two secondary playmakers behind Wallace. Plus Jones had the ability to create her shot off the dribble any time she wanted. There is plenty of young talent, but there will need to be players who step up as shooters, but most importantly playmakers. The team could be inconsistent to start.

Also, the loss of Nina Davis means Baylor is losing close to 40 ppg with Davis, Prince, and Jones. There will need to be players who take significant steps forward and show the ability to score; otherwise, teams can just double team Brown and shut Baylor down.

- Duke will be interesting. If Jade Williams and Mikayla Boykin come in and live up, the team will be very good. But losing Lambert hurts (she might be able to go later in the year, but I doubt it). Cooper and Chidom were not consistent, but provided some post depth. That will be missing next year, as Duke's is thin in the post, in terms of bodies and talent.

- A healthy Ohio State could easily be ranked in the top four.

@CamrnCrz1974 don't sleep on Madison Treece being a contributor for Duke next year. She was originally a Kentucky commit. ESPN evaluation
" USJN Gateway Challenge-May 2014: Power-body post with physical interior game finishes in paint vs. contact; mobile in transition; defends key with blue-collar persona; competes on both ends of the floor. (Olson)"

 

[HopJim]

Yeah, I also don't buy the whole "defending champ automatic #1" thing.

We should and will be ranked #1. If SC wants to use that as motivation, good for them.

While I predict UConn as #1 at end of year, curious why you would not rank the defending champs #1 in beginning.

 

[HopJim]

And Uconn NEVER plays 3 terrible quarters. I watched the game again--Uconn had open shots, shots that they make 80 out of 100 and missed them. In the 3rd (best Uc) quarter Collier was making her shots, Katie Lou was making her shots. Rebounding was a factor--Uconn shot too often with no one under or near the basket. Bad but not terrible foul shooting---again Chong and Gabby missing FT's they never miss. Katie Lou was Katie Lou ---but wasn't Katie Lou often enough--she needed to take charge. William percentage of shooting was poor --but timely--Miss st shooting was not high in percentage--but second chances were always Miss St.

Agreed. Hate to second guess our Hall of Fame coach, but throughout game he ignored KLS and her ability to hit inside the key jumpers. Went to Collier a lot, which normally was easy strategy-unfortunately she missed several open layups. Didn't stop Williams who even when she missed often set up others. Hate the loss but would not bet against them in 2017-18 since Geno will likely be investing as much time as players on getting to the trophy.

 

[Vowelguy]

While I predict UConn as #1 at end of year, curious why you would not rank the defending champs #1 in beginning.

Because the ranking is about who you think is the best team at the beginning of the year. The previous year is irrelevant.
No one ranked Texas A&M #1 the following season after they won, since they lost Danielle Adams and other key players.
No one ranked ND #1 at the start of 01-02 since they lost Ruth Riley and most of their starters.

A preseason poll is supposed to tell you something about the season ahead. Why would you rank someone based on the players they had last year?

 

[drweo]

No.
UConn was not preseason 1 in 02-03 nor 16-17 because the pollsters understood that rankings are based on expectations of current / future performance.

Thinking UConn should be preseason 1 has nothing to do with being a UConn fan. I did not rank them #1 a year ago; I do now.

At the beginning of 2016-17, Wasnt UConn # 3 in one poll and # 1 in the other (forget which was which)?

Anyway, I have no problem with UConn not starting next season as # 1, for a couple of reasons. First, although they do have a ton of talent coming in, a ton of talent does not always turn into a ton of wins immediately. It remains to be seen if and when that talent jells/functions. Second, being ranked lower than # 1 may provide the Huskies with added motivation to show that they should be # 1. Also, I am one of those who believe the defending champions should start the year as # 1. Only as a recognition of the status of being the "defending champions," until they lose. Finally, if S. Car. remains undefeated until UConn beats them in Columbia, it will be that much sweeter for the team and for us fans.

PS: My guess is that either Davis or Gray or both return for next season. Attempting to repeat as national champions.

 

[Carnac]

I REALLY like the Huskies' chances for winning #12 next year. I also REALLY like their chances for going from a one-loss season to a fully undefeated season next year. But, while I know it's unrealistic, I would love to see them ranked in the preseason at about #4 or #5. What I don't get, and what I have never gotten, is why any of us who are fans of this (especially) or any other team care so much as a whit about preseason rankings. I understand that we now are faced, alas, with about a six-month period of musings and speculations over this and that, but can anyone explain to me why this ranking thing matters in a way that is remotely convincing? Is this all just about pride? Our feelings??? After eleven national championships since 1995 (!) are we so easily wounded that this stuff really concerns us? Most fans, and particularly casual fans of WCBB around the country, inevitably pull for the underdog. They are thrilled that UConn went down this year, if you can characterize getting to the Final Four after the huge graduation losses it endured, and losing only in overtime on a buzzer-beater as "going down." Those folks will, quite understandably, gleefully wish to lowball UConn in any potential preseason rankings. Guess what? I hope that both they and the so-called experts do exactly that. My feelings will categorically not be hurt. I look forward with confidence to the only rankings that matter, the ones that come out next April at the tourney's conclusion! The rest is just the usual bloviation.

Well said BP