For Tenn, both Mercedes Russell #1 in the 2013 class and Jaime Nared was #6 in 2014. I think it was said on the broadcast that Mercedes was the first #1 ranked recruit to never make All American in College...ouch. In fact, no basketball player recruited by Holly as the HC at Tennessee has made All-American. She had two players make it her first 2 years but they were recruited while Pat was there and played 2 and 3 years under her.
I hear you but my contention is it is a starting point and a pretty good starting point. All athletes develop and peak at different times in their lives due to physiology, emotional interest/drive and coaching. These players that are ranked in the top 24 are usually pretty vetted over the rankings vs those from 80 and above. And your point is valid in the respect talent can still drastically underperform, like at Baylor or Tennessee. However winning a National Championship is easier with top players on it than not. I think Notre Dame from 2001 was that last team without a McDonald's All-American. Ruth Riley was ranked something like 61. My point is for this year, there are teams with McD's AAs that are playing at a very high level especially in the Lexington Region-Louisville has 4/5, Baylor has 6 and Stanford has 6 so I just think it will be harder for Scott to beat both talent and other credible coaches.
Thanks for the dialogue. I have attached the 2014 HoopGurlz to show how effective this ranking was as it shows a "Who's who" of top players. Sure, there are a few "Who?" in there but for the most part the rankings got it right.
www.espn.com/high-school/girls-basketball/recruiting/rankings/_/class/2014