Wait Until Next Year

[mauconnfan]

I won't be predicting three losses like I did before this season. I'm still in shock that with the talent we have we didn't make the NCAA Tourney. We're the Cup Cormier Huskies. I guess we all expected more offensively from Brimah and didn't realize how poor of a rebounding team we'd be. When a skinny guy like DHam is your top rebounder, you know it's been a tough season.

You do realize you made a great point here right? "Skinny" guys can rebound if they know and want to.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I agree.

Perhaps because of the history at UConn, I think next year will look like either the 1998/2002 type year, or the 2003/2008 type year.

In past years that would be a reasonable expectation as part of a regular cycle of (1) rebuilding, followed by (2) predictable improvement (peaking at year's end with a high seed), followed by (3) wire-to-wire dominance.

That pattern was followed in 97-98-99 and 07-08-09.

02-03-04-05-06 was even better than that because we brought in top talent every year. 02-03-04 didn't follow the above pattern because a would-be rebuilding year in 2002 (with young Taliek, Gordon, and Okafor) was superceded by Caron's excellence. Likewise, 04-05-06 didn't follow the pattern because the would-be rebuilding year in 2004 (with young Boone, Armstrong, Villanueva, Anderson, Brown, and MW) was superceded by Okafor and Gordon still being around. That's what happened when we had stud classes every year or every other year, rather than every 3 years.

That said, our predictable cycle of occasion rebuilding, regular improvement, and frequent dominance has been missing for over half a decade. The abominable recruiting class of 09-10, defections post-2012, and related and subsequent recruiting failures are predominantly to blame.

Back to next year: it would be great if we could earnestly view 2015 as just one of those 1997 or 2007 rebuilding years. But that's an exercise in willful ignorance. Both 1997 and 2007 were extraordinarily young teams, led by freshmen (Rip, Voskuhl, KFree; Dyson, Sticks, Thabeet, Price -- not a frosh, but a first-year player) or sophomores (Rash, Ricky; Adrien, Austrie) at best. Our team this past year was not just led, but dominated by a senior PG, leaned on to an extent more than possibly any other player in a given year in our program's history (yes, even Kemba). [This is another disturbing trend in our program, but I'll leave that for another post.]

Those previous teams made the NIT with a group that was absurdly young and growing as a unit and as individuals. We made the NIT this year (as opposed to the CBI, or nothing) because our senior leader carried us.

If I had to give an analog for what next year will look like, I'd say more like 2001 or 2013 (albeit without the benefit of the BE).

 

[tzznandrew]

Back to next year: it would be great if we could earnestly view 2015 as just one of those 1997 or 2007 rebuilding years. But that's an exercise in willful ignorance. Both 1997 and 2007 were extraordinarily young teams, led by freshmen (Rip, Voskuhl, KFree; Dyson, Sticks, Thabeet, Price -- not a frosh, but a first-year player) or sophomores (Rash, Ricky; Adrien, Austrie) at best. Our team this past year was not just led, but dominated by a senior PG, leaned on to an extent more than possibly any other player in a given year in our program's history (yes, even Kemba). [This is another disturbing trend in our program, but I'll leave that for another post.]

Those previous teams made the NIT with a group that was absurdly young and growing as a unit and as individuals. We made the NIT this year (as opposed to the CBI, or nothing) because our senior leader carried us.

If I had to give an analog for what next year will look like, I'd say more like 2001 or 2013 (albeit without the benefit of the BE).

The 1996-97 team finished the conference tournament at 14-14. They only made the NIT because the NIT knew we would draw, and it was run separately. They did have a senior leader (Kirk King), but he was nowhere near as dominant as Boatright.

The 2006-07 team was 17-14 and left out of everything. No seniors here.

This team has the same make-up: it's key players are freshmen and sophomores. Phil is a junior, but he barely played his freshmen year. Calhoun is a junior. He'll be the one upper-classmen.

And I dispute that this team wasn't growing. Or that those teams were. 1997 went into the NIT losing 5 straight, and 11 out of 14. The NIT is where they found some semblance of who they were. 2007 didn't make any postseason, and lost 4 straight to end the season--on top of losing 11 of 15 to end the year.

To be fair, the better comparison may be the 2001 and 2010 seasons. Those seasons ended poorly, and we had senior leadership. We were terrified about the next year in each case. And they turned out fine.

 

[CallMeBruce]

The 1996-97 team finished the conference tournament at 14-14. They only made the NIT because the NIT knew we would draw, and it was run separately. They did have a senior leader (Kirk King), but he was nowhere near as dominant as Boatright.

The 2006-07 team was 17-14 and left out of everything. No seniors here.

This team has the same make-up: it's key players are freshmen and sophomores. Phil is a junior, but he barely played his freshmen year. Calhoun is a junior. He'll be the one upper-classmen.

And I dispute that this team wasn't growing. Or that those teams were. 1997 went into the NIT losing 5 straight, and 11 out of 14. The NIT is where they found some semblance of who they were. 2007 didn't make any postseason, and lost 4 straight to end the season--on top of losing 11 of 15 to end the year.

To be fair, the better comparison may be the 2001 and 2010 seasons. Those seasons ended poorly, and we had senior leadership. We were terrified about the next year in each case. And they turned out fine.

The 1997 team did not have a senior leader after King was suspended for the season 14 games in. Of note: we were 11-3 when that happened.

What senior leader in 2001? Mouring?

 

[tzznandrew]

The 1997 team did not have a senior leader after King was suspended for the season 14 games in. Of note: we were 11-3 when that happened.

Right. But that was probably a house of cards. They didn't really beat anyone of note before that suspension other than a mediocre Georgetown team (10 seed) and a mediocre Virginia team (9 seed). They already had losses to bad teams like St. John's Pitt.

You're right that I did not mention King being suspended for the rest of the year. But that was not likely an NCAA tournament team regardless.

 

[jfuchs91]

In past years that would be a reasonable expectation as part of a regular cycle of (1) rebuilding, followed by (2) predictable improvement (peaking at year's end with a high seed), followed by (3) wire-to-wire dominance.

That pattern was followed in 97-98-99 and 07-08-09.

02-03-04-05-06 was even better than that because we brought in top talent every year. 02-03-04 didn't follow the above pattern because a would-be rebuilding year in 2002 (with young Taliek, Gordon, and Okafor) was superceded by Caron's excellence. Likewise, 04-05-06 didn't follow the pattern because the would-be rebuilding year in 2004 (with young Boone, Armstrong, Villanueva, Anderson, Brown, and MW) was superceded by Okafor and Gordon still being around. That's what happened when we had stud classes every year or every other year, rather than every 3 years.

That said, our predictable cycle of occasion rebuilding, regular improvement, and frequent dominance has been missing for over half a decade. The abominable recruiting class of 09-10, defections post-2012, and related and subsequent recruiting failures are predominantly to blame.

Back to next year: it would be great if we could earnestly view 2015 as just one of those 1997 or 2007 rebuilding years. But that's an exercise in willful ignorance. Both 1997 and 2007 were extraordinarily young teams, led by freshmen (Rip, Voskuhl, KFree; Dyson, Sticks, Thabeet, Price -- not a frosh, but a first-year player) or sophomores (Rash, Ricky; Adrien, Austrie) at best. Our team this past year was not just led, but dominated by a senior PG, leaned on to an extent more than possibly any other player in a given year in our program's history (yes, even Kemba). [This is another disturbing trend in our program, but I'll leave that for another post.]

Those previous teams made the NIT with a group that was absurdly young and growing as a unit and as individuals. We made the NIT this year (as opposed to the CBI, or nothing) because our senior leader carried us.

If I had to give an analog for what next year will look like, I'd say more like 2001 or 2013 (albeit without the benefit of the BE).

I do largely agree with most of this assessment of our program (although that 17-14 team in 2007 did not make the NIT), but I do think that this season could fit into the first phase of the cycle. We lost a ton from our championship team a year ago, and while Boat did come back, everyone else on the roster got their first taste of being relied upon as a consistent contributor at UConn. We are a young team. According to KenPom, we are 284th in the country in average experience. I envision next year playing out similar to 2008; a group of emerging players realizing how good they can be after a disappointing year.

We have some good things going for us. We all expect Hamilton to be a stud, starting as soon as next year. Purvis has played great basketball in March, and perhaps this is overly optimistic, but when Boat went out yesterday and we needed someone to step up, it seemed to finally "click" with Purvis how talented he is when he slashes to the hoop. Brimah has some major flaws in his game, but he's also already an elite shotblocker and finisher of lobs and dump-offs (#1 Block% and #3 True Shooting% in the entire country). Keep in mind that Brimah did not get a full summer of development due to offseason shoulder issues. In my opinion, most of Brimah's issues stem from his lack of physical strength. He will finally get an offseason to really focus on putting on weight (I also think players like Hamilton, Facey, etc. will greatly benefit from adding weight/strength in the offseason). It's tough to judge incoming freshmen, but Jalen Adams looks like a bonafide stud equipped with the swagger that we've had from our most recent championship winning PGs.

If we keep our core in tact (which granted, could be a big if), we should have one of the best starting lineups in the country in 2017, regardless of what recruits we bring in. This will be the phase 3 of our development:

2017 Starting 5
PG: Sophomore Jalen Adams
SG: Senior Rodney Purvis
SF: Junior Daniel Hamilton
PF: Senior Facey/Sophomore Enoch/Junior Lubin
C: Senior Brimah

It's unclear who our 4 of the future is at this point, but that team would be loaded if our players follow the traditional development curve. There's always a chance that Hamilton, Purvis, Adams, or Brimah could leave early for the NBA, but this season showed that they all still have a lot of work to do.

I'm as disappointed with some of our recent recruiting misses as anyone, but the "sky is falling" types are off base. We still have a great core of young players who should continue to improve and develop together. I'll be excited to watch them grow every step along the way.

 

[SubbaBub]

I expect a rotation of Brimah, Nolan, Enosch, and Lubin at the 4/5 spots, Hamilton, Purvis, Calhoun at the shooting guard/wing spots, and Adams/Samuel at point with Facey and Cassell playing sparingly. SC has a chance to take minutes either Calhoun or Samuel and Facey from Nolan.

I expect a pretty decent year from Omar. I think he figured something out this last month off the dribble and on D. If he can hit from outside consistently, he could be a 10 pt/game guy. Same goes for Purvis.

Of course my opinion may change if they can't rack up at least 60 against ASU.

 

[Joobie]

I won't be predicting three losses like I did before this season. I'm still in shock that with the talent we have we didn't make the NCAA Tourney. We're the Cup Cormier Huskies. I guess we all expected more offensively from Brimah and didn't realize how poor of a rebounding team we'd be. When a skinny guy like DHam is your top rebounder, you know it's been a tough season.

Really? Bazz wasn't exactly Jahidi White!

 

[3rdbass]

I expect Facey to be starting at the 4 for sure. I liked what I saw of him this year, I think he'll make a nice jump next year and give us something around 8 & 8. He's the only player on the roster that has shown the potential to be a legit high-major rebounder outside of Hamilton. We have to cross out fingers that Adams lives up to the hype, he can't be a bust. Not now, not in the situation we're in.

Adams
Purvis
Hamilton
Facey
Brimah

The depth is terrifying though. We need a damn shooter off the bench. Either Cassell or Omar needs to get their stroke right. We still don't have a solid ball handler off the bench either unless TS improves tremendously.

Looking way down the line to 16-17, that should be our starting line as well. That could be a fun year.

Dham is gone next year if he explodes on the scene as most of us expect. He has so much talent and just has to work on his shooting touch.

 

[BoatShow]

There's a 100% chance Adams will be starting next year.

You order the letters for NIT CHAMPIONS at the DOT?

 

[3rdbass]

I do largely agree with most of this assessment of our program (although that 17-14 team in 2007 did not make the NIT), but I do think that this season could fit into the first phase of the cycle. We lost a ton from our championship team a year ago, and while Boat did come back, everyone else on the roster got their first taste of being relied upon as a consistent contributor at UConn. We are a young team. According to KenPom, we are 284th in the country in average experience. I envision next year playing out similar to 2008; a group of emerging players realizing how good they can be after a disappointing year.

We have some good things going for us. We all expect Hamilton to be a stud, starting as soon as next year. Purvis has played great basketball in March, and perhaps this is overly optimistic, but when Boat went out yesterday and we needed someone to step up, it seemed to finally "click" with Purvis how talented he is when he slashes to the hoop. Brimah has some major flaws in his game, but he's also already an elite shotblocker and finisher of lobs and dump-offs (#1 Block% and #3 True Shooting% in the entire country). Keep in mind that Brimah did not get a full summer of development due to offseason shoulder issues. In my opinion, most of Brimah's issues stem from his lack of physical strength. He will finally get an offseason to really focus on putting on weight (I also think players like Hamilton, Facey, etc. will greatly benefit from adding weight/strength in the offseason). It's tough to judge incoming freshmen, but Jalen Adams looks like a bonafide stud equipped with the swagger that we've had from our most recent championship winning PGs.

If we keep our core in tact (which granted, could be a big if), we should have one of the best starting lineups in the country in 2017, regardless of what recruits we bring in. This will be the phase 3 of our development:

2017 Starting 5
PG: Sophomore Jalen Adams
SG: Senior Rodney Purvis
SF: Junior Daniel Hamilton
PF: Senior Facey/Sophomore Enoch/Junior Lubin
C: Senior Brimah

It's unclear who our 4 of the future is at this point, but that team would be loaded if our players follow the traditional development curve. There's always a chance that Hamilton, Purvis, Adams, or Brimah could leave early for the NBA, but this season showed that they all still have a lot of work to do.

I'm as disappointed with some of our recent recruiting misses as anyone, but the "sky is falling" types are off base. We still have a great core of young players who should continue to improve and develop together. I'll be excited to watch them grow every step along the way.

I wouldn't worry about RP or AB leaving early but Dham is going to be gone unless he just falls off the map for some reason. His game was great all year long except a for a few games. He just needs to working on better shooting touch on the floater. He does so many other things Assists and Rebounding even when he isn't scoring. I guess RP could play himself to the next level but I just don't see the elite athletic talent or shooting prowess to be drafted. AB isn't leaving even with a decent year as he is still a project and older one by his age.

 

[tjhusky]

As much as I love Boat, he is not really a point guard. A good PG can win games without scoring a point. Break down defenses, find the open man, score when the D plays off him. Adams looks like he is a very good PG, but need to see how he develops and adapts to the college game. His mentor is the on-staff former NBA PG KO.

If he is not a liability on D (big if for any freshman) he has a shot at running the team next year.

 

[ctchamps]

Thanks CC....getting better slowly. Moved to Elim Park in Chehire so hopefully they are pretty damn good. Beds are tough to find in all of the good rehabs. Thanks again

Big game for Maloney vs Career - Go Meriden! LOL

Sorry to hear about your mom mau. Hope she rehabs really quickly.