WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

[BFieldHusky]

If you listened to the unveiling, you could sense there was heavy emphasis put on top 3 wins. It will be tough for anyone to compete with UConn if all else is close. It was actually a bit surprising given all of ours are first months or so. Hurley is going to stock the early season every year.

I also liked that they said head to head was a factor when they originally ranked Iowa St ahead of Houston. That helps if we get close to Illinois or Florida for seeding. Hurts us with Arizona, but I think they are ahead of us by a decent margin at this point.

 

[auror]

I think Duke, barring a collapse, locked up the East #1 seed yesterday.

They'd have to lose at least two and one of which would have to be an early ACCT game so they don't acquire more wins, and then we'd have to win out beating St. John's twice. Still might not be enough. Might need 3 losses.

 

[bendm]

At what point does S curve trump geographic preference? Does S curve define seed lines and then it’s geographic preference within each seed line? worst case scenario would be getting the 2 seed in the south with Houston as the 3 seed. But I think the Only way that could Happen is if Illinois gets the last 1 seed. That head to head win is huge.

 

[auror]

At what point does S curve trump geographic preference? Does S curve define seed lines and then it’s geographic preference within each seed line? worst case scenario would be getting the 2 seed in the south with Houston as the 3 seed. But I think the Only way that could Happen is if Illinois gets the last 1 seed. That head to head win is huge.

Correct. S-curve is the order teams get assigned region by geography (they don't technically get to pick except for overall #1, they're just assigned based on what is closer) within the seedline. The only time s-curve really matters in that is that the #5 overall can't be put in the same region as the #1 overall.

After the top 16 are placed in by geography (minding the conference restrictions and such), then the committee adds up all the s-curve numbers and checks to make sure they're within 5 total of each other (so 1+6+9+14 = 30 vs. 2+8+12+16 = 40 is 10 apart). If they're too far apart, they then swap teams to make it more fair at the cost of optimal geography, so that is when s-curve trumps geography. In that example, they might swap 12 and 9 and that would be 33 and 35 now, which is acceptable.