WAB (Wins Above Bubble) | Page 2 | The Boneyard

WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

Austin316 said:
Wait so who determines % chance to win and up until when? Tip?

We had an 80% chance to win vs Arizona but are out 2 starters. Did our % change prior to tip without full strength? Probably not. I’m obviously being extremely biased here but maybe not… I think it’s an outlier factor to WAB that needs adjustment
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For WAB, the percentage that matters is what an "average bubble team" would do against Arizona at home, not the specific team actually playing.

And if you think of the reverse, like say, all of Arizona's team got the flu on trip over and hardly any of their starters played, you'd still get the same credit for winning, or lose the same amount for losing. It doesn't track things like roster specifics.
 
RuffRuff said:
Check out the other metrics.

NET - 8
KP - 8

Those would suggest a low two seed. Our WAB and resume value are keeping us as the last one. Zero room for error. We should be Purdue fans today.
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Ignoring the three more consensus number ones in Michigan/Zona/Duke, the other one seems most likely to come from the following four teams. And I'd say judging from the metrics below UConn and Houston are pretty neck and neck overall. They have more Q1 wins and a higher KP and NET but are lower on WAB/SOR and KPI. UConn also does have more Q2 wins, so it's not like UConn stacked wins against Q3/Q4. If it were today, I could easily see Houston getting the fourth one seed and UConn being put as the two in Duke's region. Right now, Illinois and ISU seem pretty far behind Houston and UConn.

UConn (22-2):
Q1 - 5-2
Q2 - 8-0
KP - 8
NET - 8
WAB - 4
SOR - 4
KPI - 4

Houston (22-2):
Q1 - 7-2
Q2 - 6-0
KP - 4
NET - 6
WAB - 6
SOR - 5
KPI - 5

Illinois (20-5)
Q1 - 6-4
Q2 - 4-1
KP - 6
NET - 4
WAB - 7
SOR - 10
KPI - 9

ISU (21-3):
Q1 - 5-3
Q2 - 9-1
KP - 7
NET - 5
WAB - 9
SOR - 9
KPI - 7
 
Leebo said:
For WAB, the percentage that matters is what an "average bubble team" would do against Arizona at home, not the specific team actually playing.

And if you think of the reverse, like say, all of Arizona's team got the flu on trip over and hardly any of their starters played, you'd still get the same credit for winning, or lose the same amount for losing. It doesn't track things like roster specifics.
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caw said:
Ignoring the three more consensus number ones in Michigan/Zona/Duke, the other one seems most likely to come from the following four teams. And I'd say judging from the metrics below UConn and Houston are pretty neck and neck overall. They have more Q1 wins and a higher KP and NET but are lower on WAB/SOR and KPI. UConn also does have more Q2 wins, so it's not like UConn stacked wins against Q3/Q4. If it were today, I could easily see Houston getting the fourth one seed and UConn being put as the two in Duke's region. Right now, Illinois and ISU seem pretty far behind Houston and UConn.

UConn (22-2):
Q1 - 5-2
Q2 - 8-0
KP - 8
NET - 8
WAB - 4
SOR - 4
KPI - 4

Houston (22-2):
Q1 - 7-2
Q2 - 6-0
KP - 4
NET - 6
WAB - 6
SOR - 5
KPI - 5

Illinois (20-5)
Q1 - 6-4
Q2 - 4-1
KP - 6
NET - 4
WAB - 7
SOR - 10
KPI - 9

ISU (21-3):
Q1 - 5-3
Q2 - 9-1
KP - 7
NET - 5
WAB - 9
SOR - 9
KPI - 7
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Looks like a two horse race.
 
RuffRuff said:
Looks like a two horse race.
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You can’t just look at quad one wins. Everyone (but you) seems able to discern that at Kansas and Florida and Illinois on neutral courts are quad one ++++ wins when you’re comparing the best teams to each other. And the predictive metrics, because they care about margin, are far less important than the resume metrics.

If the tournament started tomorrow, we should easily be the choice over Houston. Of course, the tournament isn’t starting tomorrow. A good number of losses remains to occur among the top ten or so teams.
 
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ToolzieFan said:
This is an interesting look at win quality and loss quality. I do think that if we win the rest of our regular season games, we should pretty clearly be a #1 seed.

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It's basically wins above bubble, but with Evan's rankings as the basis and separating out the plusses and the minuses.
 
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Whether we get a #1 seed, at this point, depends entirely on whether they lean on resume metrics (i.e. did we win or lose games) or predictive metrics (i.e. margin of victory).

While the latter is useful for betting, I would hope that the sport still rewards Ws and Ls.
 
businesslawyer said:
You can’t just look at quad one wins. Everyone (but you) seems able to discern that at Kansas and Florida and Illinois on neutral courts are quad one ++++ wins when you’re comparing the best teams to each other. And the resume metrics, because they care about margin, are far less important than the resume metrics.

If the tournament started tomorrow, we should easily be the choice over Houston. Of course, the tournament isn’t starting tomorrow. A good number of losses remains to occur among the top ten or so teams.
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Agree - we have too many quality OOC wins over them at the moment. It can definitely swing in their favor over the next month as they have good opponents coming.
 
If the choices were #1 in South with Houston as #2 or #2 in East with Duke as #1, is there an obvious preference given geographical disadvantage of former?
 
Updated 2/12 WAB:

1. Michigan 9.0
2. Arizona 8.2
3. Duke 8.1
4. UConn 8.0
5. Houston 7.0
6. Nebraska 6.3
7. Purdue 6.3
8. Illinois 5.7
9. Kansas 5.6
10. Michigan St. 5.4
 
BFieldHusky said:
Updated 2/12 WAB:

1. Michigan 9.0
2. Arizona 8.2
3. Duke 8.1
4. UConn 8.0
5. Houston 7.0
6. Nebraska 6.3
7. Purdue 6.3
8. Illinois 5.7
9. Kansas 5.6
10. Michigan St. 5.4
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Houston Schedule

KSU
@ISU
AZ
@KU
Col
Baylor
@Okie St

UConn Schedule

Gtown
Creighton
@Nova
StJ
SHU
@Marquette

Unless we implode, I cannot see anyone but Houston jumping us for the 1. Houston does have a pretty favorable schedule in that they are playing a variety of poor teams in the B12, along with ISU & KU at home. I can easily see them going 6-1 through that stretch. The question will be if we go 5-1, let's say lose to StJ or Nova, if we keep the 1. I think it would be tight. Our schedule is also highly favorable given 4 of those games are at home. We'll be favored in every one of those games, Houston should only be dogs @AZ.
 
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RuffRuff said:
Houston Schedule

KSU
@ISU
AZ
@KU
Col
Baylor
@Okie St

UConn Schedule

Gtown
Creighton
@Nova
StJ
SHU
@Marquette

Unless we implode, I cannot see anyone but Houston jumping us for the 1. Houston does have a pretty favorable schedule in that they are playing a variety of poor teams in the B12, along with ISU & KU at home. I can easily see them going 6-1 through that stretch. The question will be if we go 5-1, let's say lose to StJ or Nova, if we keep the 1. I think it would be tight. Our schedule is also highly favorable given 4 of those games are at home. We'll be favored in every one of those games, Houston should only be dogs @AZ.
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Think you made a mistake when analyzing. As you noted when laying out their schedule, they play ISU and KU on the road, not at home.

I've got them at 4-3 through that stretch, personally. They have had a really soft schedule thus far, with the 4 ranked teams they've played being Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas Tech and BYU. In those games they're only 2-2, losing to both Tech and Tennessee. Arkansas is a solid team but they're currently #21, I wouldn't consider them elite. As I noted in another thread BYU had lost 3 straight heading into their matchup and clearly has not been the same team they were at the start of the season. So I'm a little skeptical they beat either ISU or KU on the road, and I think Arizona at home will be just as much of a challenge. I can see them maybe winning one of those games but if they go 2-1 in those 3, I'll be shocked.
 
Nameless said:
Think you made a mistake when analyzing. As you noted when laying out their schedule, they play ISU and KU on the road, not at home.

I've got them at 4-3 through that stretch, personally. They have had a really soft schedule thus far, with the 4 ranked teams they've played being Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas Tech and BYU. In those games they're only 2-2, losing to both Tech and Tennessee. Arkansas is a solid team but they're currently #21, I wouldn't consider them elite. As I noted in another thread BYU had lost 3 straight heading into their matchup and clearly has not been the same team they were at the start of the season. So I'm a little skeptical they beat either ISU or KU on the road, and I think Arizona at home will be just as much of a challenge. I can see them maybe winning one of those games but if they go 2-1 in those 3, I'll be shocked.
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Ah good catch, was going fast.

Idk - a couple of those losses were really early. They’ve improved. They seem to be taking care of business against lesser teams of late. 2 losses likely keeps us in a good spot with even one loss on our end. Them winning two of those three against top ten teams is where we’d have to worry.
 
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What will be interesting is if UConn wins out, and Dukes loses to Michigan, is that enough to put us as the No. 1 seed in the East?
 
BFieldHusky said:
What will be interesting is if UConn wins out, and Dukes loses to Michigan, is that enough to put us as the No. 1 seed in the East?
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If that’s Dukes only loss, I don’t think so.
 
12/21: Duke vs Michigan, Houston vs Arizona, UConn at Villanova, Iowa State at BYU

Those are at least the head to head ones that matter.

Thing is, only 4 can win.

Ideally of course, UConn, BYU, Michigan, and Arizona would lift UConn to likely 3rd.

If Houston beats Arizona that is 3 beating 1 so little drift, and maybe just a swap places above us.

If Michigan beats Duke, we are happy because Duke loses, but it's better also because it's 2 beating 4 above us and while Michigan can fall from 2, likely 2 to 3 spots and Duke above us rises anyway.

If BYU beats Iowa State, that makes our BYU victory better, but also moves Iowa State behind us.
 
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With Arizona losing at home, UConn has jumped them in WAB, back to #3. Michigan has separated itself in #1.
 

Why UConn is a No. 1 seed​

If you woke up this morning, searched "college basketball NET rankings" and saw UConn at No. 10, you might think the Huskies deserve a No. 3 seed. If the NET was the selection committee's top seeding tool, then perhaps you'd be right.

But it's not. When it comes to deciding who belongs on the No. 1 seed line, the committee is more likely to use a "resume" metric such as Wins Above Bubble (WAB) as a guide than it is to lean on a "predictive" metric like NET, which incorporates victory margin and efficiency metrics.

UConn's resume makes it deserving of a No. 1 seed. The Huskies own wins over Illinois, Kansas and Florida and are holding steady at No. 3 in WAB amid a 14-1 start to Big East play. The Huskies rank behind only Michigan and Duke in WAB, and they are also highly regarded in KPI (5th) and Strength of Record (3rd), which are the other resume-based metrics on official NCAA team sheets.

This creates a clear distinction between the Huskies and a strong group of teams on their heels that is headlined by Houston, Purdue and Iowa State.

www.cbssports.com

Bracketology: Houston squanders chance to validate itself as fourth No. 1 seed as UConn elevates

Monday night's blockbuster Big 12 battle altered the race for the fourth No. 1 seed as we inch closer toward March
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
This year the committee will use whatever metrics they can use to get the teams in that they want.
 
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Good article on WAB. There's a discussion about UConn in here. They explain why UConn's WAB is much more important than their NET and why the NET is 10 for a team they're projecting as a 1 seed.

If you only have the bandwidth to master one (metric) before Selection Sunday, consider learning Wins Above Bubble. Introduced officially last season to the NCAA Tournament selection process, WAB is a resume-based metric rapidly becoming a staple of the college hoops lexicon.

"I think fans would be probably pretty surprised that the selection of the at-large teams was probably more highly correlated to a team's WAB ranking than it was their NET ranking," NCAA senior vice president of basketball Dan Gavitt told CBS Sports, referring back to last year's selection decisions.

www.cbssports.com

Why college basketball fans should master Wins Above Bubble: WAB is new factor in NCAA Tournament selection

If you only have the bandwidth to master one metric before Selection Sunday, consider learning WAB
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com
 
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BFieldHusky said:
Updated (2/17)

1. Michigan 9.5
2. Duke 8.9
3. UConn 8.3
4. Arizona 7.9
5. Houston 7.1
6. Pursue 7.0
7. Nebraska 6.7
8. Iowa St. 6.5
9. Illinois 6.2
10. Gonzaga 5.9
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Playing the "What if" game. We beat Creighton/Nova this week. Duke loses to Michigan at home on Sat. Could we jump Duke in WAB going into next week?
 
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Umami Zen said:
Playing the "What if" game. We beat Creighton/Nova this week. Duke loses to Michigan at home on Sat. Could we jump Duke in WAB going into next week?
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I would say yes. As of right now Duke has a 0.52 WAB lead, 8.82 to UConn's 8.29. Duke losing to Michigan is not going to cost them a lot of WAB points. For example, the Duke's neutral site loss to Texas Tech was -0.25 so let's say the loss to Michigan is only -0.15.

UConn beating Creighton is not going to gain many WAB points. My guess is about 0.20. But beating Villanova on the road will give UConn a decent amount of WAB points. The prior win over Villanova at home was worth 0.45. The road wins over middling and bad BE teams such as Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, PC, etc. were all worth around 0.50 WAB. So I'd say the win at Villanova would be worth about 0.65.

So 0.65 plus 0.20 is 0.85, which would put UConn at 9.14. Duke would go from 8.82 to 8.67.

Does all this make sense?
 
navery12 said:
Duke would be at 8.73 and UConn at 9.22 so yes we'd jump them
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O.K. that was easier than my explanation. Lol. Is there a place you can see potential WAB for future games? I'm assuming that's where you got that.
 
HooperScooper said:
O.K. that was easier than my explanation. Lol. Is there a place you can see potential WAB for future games? I'm assuming that's where you got that.
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What are we angling for here? To jump Duke in the seeding line and take the 1 in the East? I doubt a loss to UM is going to hurt them all that much if they sweep otherwise.
 
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