Villanova line | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Villanova line

On November 19th, our football team was playing at Army.
We had won 5 of the previous 6, coming off a win against #18 in the polls.
Army had 3 wins at the time, coming off of losses to Troy and Air Force.

Somehow Vegas had us as 10.5 point underdogs. I wanted what they were smoking.

We lost by 17.

Vegas knows stuff sometimes. I wish I knew what.

All that said, im still not betting at 14.5. Kinda seems like a lousy bet on both sides.....which I guess is the point.
 
ibleedhuskyblue said:
On November 19th, our football team was playing at Army.
We had won 5 of the previous 6, coming off a win against #18 in the polls.
Army had 3 wins at the time, coming off of losses to Troy and Air Force.

Somehow Vegas had us as 10.5 point underdogs. I wanted what they were smoking.

We lost by 17.

Vegas knows stuff sometimes. I wish I knew what.

All that said, im still not betting at 14.5. Kinda seems like a lousy bet on both sides.....which I guess is the point.
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Making a line which seems lousy for both sides is the opposite of what they want. They want fans and bettors to see both sides as sure things to drive bets.
 
ibleedhuskyblue said:
On November 19th, our football team was playing at Army.
We had won 5 of the previous 6, coming off a win against #18 in the polls.
Army had 3 wins at the time, coming off of losses to Troy and Air Force.

Somehow Vegas had us as 10.5 point underdogs. I wanted what they were smoking.

We lost by 17.

Vegas knows stuff sometimes. I wish I knew what.

All that said, im still not betting at 14.5. Kinda seems like a lousy bet on both sides.....which I guess is the point.
Expand ...
What Vegas knows is their customer. Setting the spread it really doesn't have to do with winning or losing but by what the betting public will do to have both sides of the bet equal in in terms of money bet.
 
Chin Diesel said:
Making a line which seems lousy for both sides is the opposite of what they want. They want fans and bettors to see both sides as sure things to drive bets.
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Yes sir, im aware.

I suppose if it's lousy on both sides to some/me, im sure it's also very enticing on both sides to others.

To me, it's lousy because of how hard everyone will play against us, and because we just has our first test. I doubt many non-UConn fans will see that, and will be fine betting that number.
 
What app is this line on currently? I’m probably going to wait. But see this game going different than Georgetown. Georgetown, for all it’s bad coaching, had size, talent, and a great scoring guard (Spears) to keep it close. Villanova doesn’t have much outside of Whitmore. We should dominate the paint and let our perimeter defense flourish in this one.
 
HuskyWarrior611 said:
What app is this line on currently? I’m probably going to wait. But see this game going different than Georgetown. Georgetown, for all it’s bad coaching, had size, talent, and a great scoring guard (Spears) to keep it close. Villanova doesn’t have much outside of Whitmore. We should dominate the paint and let our perimeter defense flourish in this one.
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It was 14.5 on Draftkings this morning and down to 14 now.
 
I agree with the thought that the line is factoring in UConn dominance and has it a few points higher than otherwise.
 
JB75 said:
R u kidding me? -14.5??? Thought it would be like -5/6
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We haven't won game by less than 10... yet you think vegas would make the line half of what we've done to date...at home. Interesting.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
UConn -5.5 would be a slam dunk bet on the favorite.

I was expecting -9.5 or maybe -10.5.
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Yeah 8 or 9 was what I thought. Admittedly, I haven't seen any Villanova games since Whitmore came back so I can't say too strongly how crazy the line is.
 
Not sure we cover that big a number. This game is almost the exact opposite of the trap game against Georgetown. We have to be ready to start fast. This game is almost a must win for them. Whitmore projects as a top ten nba pick so they have talent. This is a game that makes me smile about our HC. If we start slow expect another T on Hurley..
 
BGesus4 said:
I’m not touching that either way. Novas not very deep so it could also be a very close game that we stretch at the very end.
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I think this will be the trend all year, we play so deep and so tough on D that at that 8min mark left in the game they start to get tired and can’t keep up with our level of intensity
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Sure enough, it is already down to 12 on Draftkings and I'm already being offered a cash out at a 10% profit on my Nova +14.5 bet lol
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This seems insane. You take 10% and you remake your bet. There has to be a catch.
 
UConn men's basketball and football are games I will never bet on. And I sure as hell would never bet the opponent with the spread because I just can't get myself to root for an adverse outcome to UConn such as missing a FT, missing shots, missing FG, cheering for opponents to score, or whatever, to hope it wins my bet.

Now betting against the Yanks, NY Giants and any other favorite teams, I can and have done that repeatedly if I feel there is a great opportunity to make $$.

Anyone else feel that way?
 
ZachFan said:
What Vegas knows is their customer. Setting the spread it really doesn't have to do with winning or losing but by what the betting public will do to have both sides of the bet equal in in terms of money bet.
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Bingo. You seem to be one of the few people that understands this. Then Vegas profits off of the vig/commission.
 
Last edited:
polycom said:
This seems insane. You take 10% and you remake your bet. There has to be a catch.
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No catch. Draftkings thinks they're going to take a bath at Nova +14.5, so they're offering me a small profit instead of the (likely) more profitable move of me letting it ride.

I can't re-make the bet because the line is currently Nova +12.

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gsmooth said:
UConn men's basketball and football are games I will never bet on. And I sure as hell would never bet the opponent with the spread because I just can't get myself to root for an adverse outcome to UConn such as missing a FT, missing shots, missing FG, cheering for opponents to score, or whatever, to hope it wins my bet.

Now betting against the Yanks, NY Giants and any other favorite teams, I can and have done that repeatedly if I feel there is a great opportunity to make $$.

Anyone else feel that way?
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No favorite team of mine is sacred. If there's an opportunity, because I know my team better than Vegas does, I'll bet it and sometimes bet big (I bet $200 against the UConn women at +195 when they were playing at Maryland down 2 starters and should never have been favored in the first place -- I knew something Vegas didn't).

Sometimes I lose (and don't mind too much), but overall I'm up a good percentage on these bets.
 

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