Villanova line | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Villanova line

HuskyWarrior611 said:
What app is this line on currently? I’m probably going to wait. But see this game going different than Georgetown. Georgetown, for all it’s bad coaching, had size, talent, and a great scoring guard (Spears) to keep it close. Villanova doesn’t have much outside of Whitmore. We should dominate the paint and let our perimeter defense flourish in this one.
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It was 14.5 on Draftkings this morning and down to 14 now.
 
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I agree with the thought that the line is factoring in UConn dominance and has it a few points higher than otherwise.
 
JB75 said:
R u kidding me? -14.5??? Thought it would be like -5/6
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We haven't won game by less than 10... yet you think vegas would make the line half of what we've done to date...at home. Interesting.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
UConn -5.5 would be a slam dunk bet on the favorite.

I was expecting -9.5 or maybe -10.5.
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Yeah 8 or 9 was what I thought. Admittedly, I haven't seen any Villanova games since Whitmore came back so I can't say too strongly how crazy the line is.
 
Not sure we cover that big a number. This game is almost the exact opposite of the trap game against Georgetown. We have to be ready to start fast. This game is almost a must win for them. Whitmore projects as a top ten nba pick so they have talent. This is a game that makes me smile about our HC. If we start slow expect another T on Hurley..
 
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BGesus4 said:
I’m not touching that either way. Novas not very deep so it could also be a very close game that we stretch at the very end.
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I think this will be the trend all year, we play so deep and so tough on D that at that 8min mark left in the game they start to get tired and can’t keep up with our level of intensity
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Sure enough, it is already down to 12 on Draftkings and I'm already being offered a cash out at a 10% profit on my Nova +14.5 bet lol
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This seems insane. You take 10% and you remake your bet. There has to be a catch.
 
UConn men's basketball and football are games I will never bet on. And I sure as hell would never bet the opponent with the spread because I just can't get myself to root for an adverse outcome to UConn such as missing a FT, missing shots, missing FG, cheering for opponents to score, or whatever, to hope it wins my bet.

Now betting against the Yanks, NY Giants and any other favorite teams, I can and have done that repeatedly if I feel there is a great opportunity to make $$.

Anyone else feel that way?
 
ZachFan said:
What Vegas knows is their customer. Setting the spread it really doesn't have to do with winning or losing but by what the betting public will do to have both sides of the bet equal in in terms of money bet.
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Bingo. You seem to be one of the few people that understands this. Then Vegas profits off of the vig/commission.
 
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polycom said:
This seems insane. You take 10% and you remake your bet. There has to be a catch.
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No catch. Draftkings thinks they're going to take a bath at Nova +14.5, so they're offering me a small profit instead of the (likely) more profitable move of me letting it ride.

I can't re-make the bet because the line is currently Nova +12.

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gsmooth said:
UConn men's basketball and football are games I will never bet on. And I sure as hell would never bet the opponent with the spread because I just can't get myself to root for an adverse outcome to UConn such as missing a FT, missing shots, missing FG, cheering for opponents to score, or whatever, to hope it wins my bet.

Now betting against the Yanks, NY Giants and any other favorite teams, I can and have done that repeatedly if I feel there is a great opportunity to make $$.

Anyone else feel that way?
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No favorite team of mine is sacred. If there's an opportunity, because I know my team better than Vegas does, I'll bet it and sometimes bet big (I bet $200 against the UConn women at +195 when they were playing at Maryland down 2 starters and should never have been favored in the first place -- I knew something Vegas didn't).

Sometimes I lose (and don't mind too much), but overall I'm up a good percentage on these bets.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
No favorite team of mine is sacred. If there's an opportunity, because I know my team better than Vegas does, I'll bet it and sometimes bet big (I bet $200 against the UConn women at +195 when they were playing at Maryland down 2 starters and should never have been favored in the first place -- I knew something Vegas didn't).

Sometimes I lose (and don't mind too much), but overall I'm up a good percentage on these bets.
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Yeah on the CFB side I’m a Michigan fan. I think they were one of the best against the spread this year too so it’s been a good year. Lol

Wish I took our Big East champs and Final Four odds earlier.
 
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Tenspro2002 said:
No favorite team of mine is sacred. If there's an opportunity, because I know my team better than Vegas does, I'll bet it and sometimes bet big.
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I agree. Maybe I am naive, but I think that college basketball (especially early season before we really know what’s what) offer a unique opportunity to find an edge.

I don’t bet often (once or twice a year), but tend to wait for unique opportunities like that.

Eg I think it was clear from the oregon game that this team was something special. Took a while for the lines to catch up to that.

My best return was on the UConn / Florida final four game. We were getting something like +7 before that game which made absolutely no sense. Hammered the spread and moneyline hard. Needless to say that was a great night.
 
Down all the way to 11.5 now. Almost playable if you think we keep up our streak of winning by double digits.
 
gsmooth said:
Bingo. You seem to be one of the few people that understands this. Then Vegas profits off of the vig/commission.
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LOL.

This is actually a common belief--sorry to say, gsmooth, you are not one of the few geniuses who understands this--but it is a myth.

Sports books absolutely take positions on the games, and they are on the right side most of the time. It is part of their strategy. Simply taking the vig on an evenly distributed bet does not make money fast enough for them.

You want proof? Think of the proposition bets. In 2006 you could get 10 to 1 odds on Tiger Woods winning all 4 majors. A horrible price, but here's the thing: you COULD NOT TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT BET. The books were taking a position that Tiger would not win all 4, at a price very favorable for them.

I promise they do the same thing on the money line, and the spread, and the over/under, and everything else.

Of course they would like you all to believe they are just taking rent on the bets, but in truth they are betting against the public. And mostly winning.
 
kobebeanbryant said:
I agree. Maybe I am naive, but I think that college basketball (especially early season before we really know what’s what) offer a unique opportunity to find an edge.
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Yes, but you have to do your research and your decisions have to be ice cold and pitiless.

Fan bias will ruin you. The sports books are counting on that.
 
The Yakk said:
LOL.

This is actually a common belief--sorry to say, gsmooth, you are not one of the few geniuses who understands this--but it is a myth.

Sports books absolutely take positions on the games, and they are on the right side most of the time. It is part of their strategy. Simply taking the vig on an evenly distributed bet does not make money fast enough for them.

You want proof? Think of the proposition bets. In 2006 you could get 10 to 1 odds on Tiger Woods winning all 4 majors. A horrible price, but here's the thing: you COULD NOT TAKE THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT BET. The books were taking a position that Tiger would not win all 4, at a price very favorable for them.

I promise they do the same thing on the money line, and the spread, and the over/under, and everything else.

Of course they would like you all to believe they are just taking rent on the bets, but in truth they are betting against the public. And mostly winning.
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So what happened here? Fans are hammering Villanova and the line is dropping. Were the sportsbooks wrong in this case?
 
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