OT: - US Open: Oakmont. What Are Your Thoughts? Who Do You Have? | The Boneyard

OT: US Open: Oakmont. What Are Your Thoughts? Who Do You Have?

Chin Diesel

Chin Diesel

The timing could not possibly be worse
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Put simply, it's going to be a blood bath. Course is lush and thick, and the greens are quicker than quick. Not the longest layout, but it won't matter.

I'll go with a couple of hot takes: Winning score of -3. Cut line will be +6 or +7. No more than 3 players under par. At least one player in the top 20 in the world will shoot 78 or worse in round 1.

No dog in the fight other than I have Schauffele in a blind draw pool. Gotta think whomever wins is a top tier player. Oakmont's history and layout doesn't lend itself to a Cinderella storyline.
 
As long as Bryson isn't hitting only 26-28 fairways for the week and winning or comes close to winning... Be interested what the players are carrying in their bags. Heard 9 woods out of the rough this week.
 
It won't be Rory. His head not in his game. Hard to go against Scottie.

I think winning score of -5 or -6 is likely. The course will not bake out. There might be stoppages in play due to short T-storms Fri/Sat/Sun. There's not going to be a ton of rain, but might be enough to slow the greens down a bit for a couple of hours.

In addition to Scottie, I like Sam Burns, JT, Colin, Xander, Sunjae, Aberg, Cam Young and Denny McCarthy to all finish in top 10. I think Bryson has a weekend meltdown. My dark horse is Justin Rose.
 
I worked at Oakmont for 8 years and i have never seen the course set up like it is. The Greens have always been some of the fastest and hardest greens of any course in the world. The rough is borderline unplayable. If you hit the rough most will need a wedge to get out and even wedges are going to get turned over in that mess. McCormick has over 100 volunteers and they are hand mowing the rough with 19" homeowner push mowers. He has not allowed a typical rough mower in over a month. The tires will compact areas where driven and will matt the grass down in areas. The way the rough is now, unless you hit an area outside the ropes , you are basically getting a penalty shot.

storrsroars said:
It won't be Rory. His head not in his game. Hard to go against Scottie.

I think winning score of -5 or -6 is likely. The course will not bake out. There might be stoppages in play due to short T-storms Fri/Sat/Sun. There's not going to be a ton of rain, but might be enough to slow the greens down a bit for a couple of hours.

In addition to Scottie, I like Sam Burns, JT, Colin, Xander, Sunjae, Aberg, Cam Young and Denny McCarthy to all finish in top 10. I think Bryson has a weekend meltdown. My dark horse is Justin Rose.
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no ones ever broken -5, a little rain may soften the greens a bit (they are sealed off with magnesium already, so most rain will basically sit on the surface and roll away) but those greens will never be slow.

-2 would be my guess
 
Expected rain will soften the greens...when the greens are fast the breaks are crazy large.

BTW: real real early: Rory is off to a good start.
 
jibsey said:
You go into the rough and tall fescue on a couple holes in a row and you could lose 5 strokes quick.
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Heard pros say they will have shots out of the rough they can only advance 50 yards max.

Not sure how I feel about this. Almost seems to be too much. At what point is it just an exercise to show embarrassing clips of how tough the course was?
 
Scottie-Xander-Shane L- All like tough courses-thick rough-adverse weather/wind
 
I have Rahm, Niemann, and Straka as my bets who I think actually have a shot. Straka is interesting because he's been on fire this year and has been great tee to green in that run as well. I'll be keeping my eye on him.

Morikawa is interesting to me as well because he's very technical around the course.

My Fleetwood and English bets are cooked halfway through round 1.

Lastly, Scottie pre-tourney odds suggest he's the next Tiger. Can he win and make everyone who bet on others look like absolute fools like Tiger did? TBD

Edit: I think I read somewhere that 5 out of last 6 US Open winners have been first time winners, so maybe this trend continues?
 
McElroy with a +4. The guy's game has literally collapsed after he got caught with an illegal driver. Hmmmm.... Says more about his mental game than anything else. Scottie also got caught, but he was able to adjust just fine with a new driver.
 
Stupid long Rough. I like seeing the pros challenged, but if they cannot really see the ball, the resultant shot will be like a 1 stroke penalty. The ONLY way not to pay, is to not spray the ball.
 
I kinda like it. This is like old-school U.S. Opens. The trend the last 20 years are Majors' courses are getting easier and easier. Players are so good and long off the tee today. There should be a penalty for being wide off the tee, or else it becomes a short-iron/putting contest.
 
Blakeon18 said:
Expected rain will soften the greens...when the greens are fast the breaks are crazy large.

BTW: real real early: Rory is off to a good start.
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Rory hasn't played well. On the other hand, he's really the right kind of player for this course. If he snaps out of it he has a good shot.

Scottie of course should be there. Maybe a surprise from one of the older guys. It will take experience and guile. I do expect something around -5 to win it, despite the crazy rough.
 
I'll take Oakmont. You can have the field. With no rain, winning score will not be under par.
 
IndyLives said:
McElroy with a +4. The guy's game has literally collapsed after he got caught with an illegal driver. Hmmmm.... Says more about his mental game than anything else. Scottie also got caught, but he was able to adjust just fine with a new driver.
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Agree Rory is all about his mindset. He came out and said it was more about him and Scheffler both having their drivers fail and only Rory's name getting leaked. Reading more about how drivers are tested each week and things players do to game the system makes Rory getting upset a bad look for him. Top players are all "caught" every week and have to deal with changing drivers.
 
Scottie in at +3. He still has brief stretches where he is driving or putting poorly. He can get away with it on most courses/tournaments. Not at Oakmont.
 
IndyLives said:
McElroy with a +4. The guy's game has literally collapsed after he got caught with an illegal driver. Hmmmm.... Says more about his mental game than anything else. Scottie also got caught, but he was able to adjust just fine with a new driver.
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That’s a really poor comment that’s just not accurate.
Rory and Scottie’s drivers were not illegal, they were tested and deemed to no longer be in spec. They both used the same drivers in numerous previous tournaments and had been in their bags for a while.
As the driver gets older the face will thin some and over time, both Rory and Scottie’s failed that portion of the test. Unfortunately, they only test a handful of people and not the entire field so there are prolly people playing this week that would possibly fail for the same reason.
 
10 players finished under par on Thursday. Birdies were available, but double-bogies were common. I think anyone who shot 76+ is done. Anyone at 74 or better can win with a good round tomorrow. I agree that -5 may not be achievable. But it's the national championship; par is supposed to be a good score. I like the deep rough. That's what I remember from the 1970s-1990s.
 
MilfordHusky said:
10 players finished under par on Thursday. Birdies were available, but double-bogies were common. I think anyone who shot 76+ is done. Anyone at 74 or better can win with a good round tomorrow. I agree that -5 may not be achievable. But it's the national championship; par is supposed to be a good score. I like the deep rough. That's what I remember from the 1970s-1990s.
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I think the guys who went out this afternoon were at a bit of disadvantage as the course baked. They'll got out early on Friday and have an advantage of the afternoon guys, who will likely be facing a few showers, maybe a t-storm. Right now there are 78 guys at +4 or better. That'll thin out, but +4 seems to be a good bet for the cut line.

Today was the hottest it'll be, and quite possible the only day with sun. Pittsburgh area weather is notoriously difficult to predict, but the forecast has gone from scattered storms on Sat/Sun to pretty much all rain, especially on Sunday. We might be looking at a Monday finish here.
 
Oakmont sent out an email to ticket holders offering refunds for today because the spectator areas are squishy wet and expected to get worse during the day, to the point of a muddy WW1 battlefield. Wonder how many will take the offer and stay home.

In early going, looks like the fairways drained well, but the greens are holding balls and some darts have been thrown.
 
Chin Diesel said:
Agree Rory is all about his mindset. He came out and said it was more about him and Scheffler both having their drivers fail and only Rory's name getting leaked. Reading more about how drivers are tested each week and things players do to game the system makes Rory getting upset a bad look for him. Top players are all "caught" every week and have to deal with changing drivers.
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To me, this is a total non-factor. Any pro should be able to switch driver heads with almost zero issues. He's keeping the same shaft and grip. I was schooled that the shaft was 80% of the club's usefulness, and that was after watching videos of trick shot guys using ropes as shafts.
 
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