Updating Predictions and Expectations

[Tenspro2002]

At the one-third point in the season and on the eve of conference play, we're 11-1, with 18 conference games plus an OOC vs. Harvard remaining.

We have some decent wins, including a solid one vs. Florida, although few in convincing fashion. Shabazz is playing at an extremely high level, but the supporting cast has been generally disappointing.

How do you see the rest of the season playing out? Below are my predictions, and I'm curious to hear yours.

Record: 25-6 (13-5 AAC), 1-1 in AACT (loss @Memphis)
NCAA Tournament: 5 seed, Sweet 16

Individual awards: Shabazz 1st team All-AAC, 3rd team All-American; Boat and DD, 3rd team All-AAC

NBA Draft: Bazz early 2nd round

 

[champs99and04]

Conference: 14-4

Postseason: who the hell knows...they may get upset, but if they do I at least expect them to go down guns blazing. This is a prideful, veteran team - gun to my head, I'd predict a run to the title game in the AAC tourney (though it would be difficult to upend Memphis playing at home) and then a bunch of coin toss type games in the NCAA Tournament ala 2011.

 

[UC990411]

National Champs

 

[huskyharry]

I don't think 13-5 in the AAC would get a 5 seed in the NCAAs. 13-5 would have been a strong record in the Old Big East but could leave you as a bubble team for the NCAAs. Given the loss that you predict in the AA tourney, the overall would be 7 losses, since we have already had a damaging loss to Stanford. That would also mean likely 3 or 4 losses against L'ville and Memphis (i.e. only zero or one resume building wins) and 1 to 2 what the heck losses (although Cincy on the road will certainly be tough).

I'm really hoping that this team starts playing better and is no worse that 15-3 in the league and could then be in line for a 4 seed, if they lose in the AAC tourney (5 losses overall).

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Shabazz is playing at an extremely high level, but the supporting cast has been generally disappointing.

You really are spoiled by the chicks.

 

[IllinoisHuskie]

13-5 in conference unless a 5 develops more consistency.

 

[PAHusky]

5 losses in conference means we either drop every game we play against a ranked opponent in conference, home and away, and lose a wtf game somewhere along the way. I just don't see that happening. Louisville is a pretty good team but nothing incredible and memphis is up and down as well. I think we have three loses and make the AAC title game, if not win it. probably a 3 seed in the tourney, 4 seed if we lose one or two boneheaded games along the way

 

[UConnDan97]

5 losses in conference means we either drop every game we play against a ranked opponent in conference, home and away, and lose a wtf game somewhere along the way. I just don't see that happening. Louisville is a pretty good team but nothing incredible and memphis is up and down as well. I think we have three loses and make the AAC title game, if not win it. probably a 3 seed in the tourney, 4 seed if we lose one or two boneheaded games along the way

My thoughts exactly. I think it is highly unlikely that this team loses 5 more games from here on out. Even if we were just to split games against Ville, Memphis, and Cincy, that is three losses. And I don't think anyone in this conference is good enough to sweep us. I hope I don't end up eating my words, but that's the way I see it too...

 

[ColoradoUCFan]

34-0

 

[CTBasketball]

11-7 or 12-6 in conference. If frontcourt plays up to par, anywhere between 13-5 and 15-3.

Win AACT. I like this team's chances in crunch-time games.

4 Seed in NCAAT and lose in Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

Shabazz 1st team AAC / 2nd team All-American / late 1st round NBA Draft

 

[champs99and04]

11-7 or 12-6 in conference. If frontcourt plays up to par, anywhere between 13-5 and 15-3.

Win AACT. I like this team's chances in crunch-time games.

4 Seed in NCAAT and lose in Sweet 16 or Elite 8.

Shabazz 1st team AAC / 2nd team All-American / late 1st round NBA Draft

So we're going to lose 6 or 7 conference games and get a 4 seed in the NCAAT and potentially make it to the Elite 8?

 

[CTBasketball]

So we're going to lose 6 or 7 conference games and get a 4 seed in the NCAAT and potentially make it to the Elite 8?

Anywhere from 7 to 3 losses in conference. That could either go from a 2 to a 7 seed, depending on the AACT.

 

[Dmike]

14-4 AAC, 26-5 overall regular season. I think we win the AAC giving us a 29-5 record going into to the Tournament as a 2 seed. If we are in the East region, we get to the Final Four through MSG. If not, we lose in the Elite 8, possibly Sweet 16.

I further predict that no matter what happens my wife won't give a come March.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If we lose 5 in this conference, this is a bad year.

USF, UCF, Rutgers, and Houston are terrible and should be 8 10+ point wins. Cincinnati and SMU are NCAA bubble teams (being generous with SMU), and Temple is capable of an upset. Maybe 2 losses against this group, max. Split with Memphis and Louisville. That is 14-4 in conference, with a very realistic shot at 15-3. The bottom half of this league is not like the bottom half of the Big East was. The bottom half of this league is terrible.

UConn has enough flaws to lose in the first or second round, and is good enough to make the Final Four with the right draw and a little better play from inside and a few key players. There are no dominant teams this year. Anyone can make a run.

 

[mauconnfan]

I believe I said 24-7 and will stay there……… Split SMU, Temple and Cincy and maybe another speed bump (UCF) among the rest and split MU and UL……….could be a little better could be a little worst…….we'll see

 

[willie99]

16-2 in conference play

28-3 overall

2 seed, elite eight

 

[Tenspro2002]

My thoughts exactly. I think it is highly unlikely that this team loses 5 more games from here on out. Even if we were just to split games against Ville, Memphis, and Cincy, that is three losses. And I don't think anyone in this conference is good enough to sweep us. I hope I don't end up eating my words, but that's the way I see it too...

We've played basically evenly with every team we've faced around the top 100. Except against the cupcakest of cupcakes, there's no sure thing for this team.

And, as such, I do think we'll split with Louisville, Memphis, and Cincy (losing on the road, most likely). I think we'll lose another road game in a tough environment, maybe even SMU later this week, and a WTF home game where we just don't show up. That's 5 conference losses.

If we are able to gel and really get something rolling on offense, and become more stout in the middle on defense and on the boards, we could be as good as 15-3, which, coupled with an AACT victory, would probably give us a 3 seed at 30-4. (Recall that in 2011, SDSU was 32-2 going into Selection Sunday out of a fairly strong MWC, and was only granted the #8 spot on the S Curve -- the weakest #2 seed.)

 

[UConnDan97]

We've played basically evenly with every team we've faced around the top 100. Except against the cupcakest of cupcakes, there's no sure thing for this team.

And, as such, I do think we'll split with Louisville, Memphis, and Cincy (losing on the road, most likely). I think we'll lose another road game in a tough environment, maybe even SMU later this week, and a WTF home game where we just don't show up. That's 5 conference losses.

If we are able to gel and really get something rolling on offense, and become more stout in the middle on defense and on the boards, we could be as good as 15-3, which, coupled with an AACT victory, would probably give us a 3 seed at 30-4. (Recall that in 2011, SDSU was 32-2 going into Selection Sunday out of a fairly strong MWC, and was only granted the #8 spot on the S Curve -- the weakest #2 seed.)

Here's my response to all of this: With all of the new or young players that we are incorporating in (Brimah, Kromah, Nolan), do you believe that we are going to stay the same quality throughout the year or improve?

It's my belief that we will improve. And even if we just stay the same, I don't see any way at all that we lose 5 in the conference. If we improve, then 3 losses is not the ceiling as you have described it to be. And as for seeding, based on where we are already, Lunardi has us as a #3 and CBS has us as a #2:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

A strong showing in conference play should secure that type of seed...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A 12-6 AAC team is firmly on the bubble. A 5 loss AAC team is an 8-11 seed. A 4 loss AAC team is a 4 to 7 seed.

The committee is going to give zero credit for sweeping ruttie, Houston and the Florida's. Those games are the equivalent of 8 games against Sacred Heart.

 

[Waquoit]

I'm was expecting a bit more than what I've seen to date. I don't think they are as good as last year's team yet.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I'm was expecting a bit more than what I've seen to date. I don't think they are as good as last year's team yet.

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second. This team is clearly better than last year's, or at least no worse. Did last year's team ever sniff the top 25?

 

[aceboon]

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second. This team is clearly better than last year's, or at least no worse. Did last year's team ever sniff the top 25?

They were ranked immediately after the Mich St win but we're dropped after the loss to NM and I don't think they ever made it back. Last year's team struggled with the mid and low majors, this year's edition is handling those games with ease.

 

[tcf15]

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second. This team is clearly better than last year's, or at least no worse. Did last year's team ever sniff the top 25?

We were ranked right after we beat MSU. Going into that New Mexico game, we were ranked #21. Never ranked after that.

 

[johnhuskies95]

We've played basically evenly with every team we've faced around the top 100. Except against the cupcakest of cupcakes, there's no sure thing for this team.

And, as such, I do think we'll split with Louisville, Memphis, and Cincy (losing on the road, most likely). I think we'll lose another road game in a tough environment, maybe even SMU later this week, and a WTF home game where we just don't show up. That's 5 conference losses.

If we are able to gel and really get something rolling on offense, and become more stout in the middle on defense and on the boards, we could be as good as 15-3, which, coupled with an AACT victory, would probably give us a 3 seed at 30-4. (Recall that in 2011, SDSU was 32-2 going into Selection Sunday out of a fairly strong MWC, and was only granted the #8 spot on the S Curve -- the weakest #2 seed.)

I'm almost positive that SDSU wasn't 8th on the S Curve. No way that Duke was the best 1 seed that year. In fact, SDSU may have been 5th on the S Curve.

 

[Waquoit]

This team is clearly better than last year's, or at least no worse. Did last year's team ever sniff the top 25?

If you are comparing the December's, I agree. But the team that beat Cuse and took Marq and G'town to OT hasn't shown up yet. DD and Omar are two players that haven't matched their best efforts from last season. I was hoping for new tops by now from them and the team. Not to say they won't get there, but the are behind my hoped-for timetable.