Just my opinion, but I think the chance for a three peat strongly swayed his decision this year. There is little upside for him coming back unless the nil package is extreme. A mil nil vs 500k+ two way deal for a 3rd year graduate aren’t all that different in the long run. He would more than make up the difference in a healthy pro career vs the risk of seeing his stock drop further.
As for the team, I just don’t see any scenario where the ceiling isn’t higher w Alex on it. Much of his struggles this year was because he was forced into a role that didn’t suit his strengths.