Lunardi has UConn as #31 on the S curve. Kind of crazy they're in such good shape.
ALL CAPS: Regular-season champion (NIT auto-bid if needed) or highest remaining seed
Bold: NCAA automatic qualifier
GREEN: Teams with tourney odds of 90 percent or better through games of March 8.
YELLOW: "Last four in" (will play March 13-14 in Dayton, Ohio)
GOLD: Lowest four auto-bids (will play March 13-14 in Dayton, Ohio)
RED: "First four out" (teams 69-72 on the S curve)
PURPLE: "Next four out" (teams 73-76 on the S curve)
The Full S-curve
*conference leader (teams)
1-KENTUCKY 2-SYRACUSE 3-KANSAS 4-NO. CAROLINA
8-Missouri 7-Ohio State 6-MICHIGAN ST. 5-Duke
9-Baylor 10-Michigan 11-Marquette 12-Georgetown
16-Wichita State 15-Florida State 14-Wisconsin 13-Indiana
17-Louisville 18-Unlv 19-TEMPLE 20-Florida
24-Creighton 23-Murray State 22-Vanderbilt 21-Notre Dame
25-SAN DIEGO ST. 26-Saint Mary's 27-Gonzaga 28-New Mexico
32-Kansas State 31-Connecticut 30-Cincinnati 29-MEMPHIS
33-Iowa State 34-Purdue 35-Alabama 36-Virginia
40-West Virginia 39-CALIFORNIA 38-Saint Louis 37-Southern Miss
41-Harvard 42-Colorado St. 43-Brigham Young 44-VCU
48-Xavier 47-Texas 46-South Florida 45-LONG BEACH
49-Washington 50-Mississippi St. 51-Seton Hall 52-Drexel
56-Davidson 55-Belmont 54-So Dakota St 53-NEVADA
57-AKRON 58-Montana 59-Loyola-MD 60-Lehigh
64-STONY BROOK 63-UNC Asheville 62-Long Island 61-Detroit
65-MISS. VALLEY 66-LAMAR 67-NORFOLK ST. 68-W. Kentucky
72-Miami 71-NC State 70-Northwestern 69-Tennessee
73-Iona 74-Arizona 75-Saint Joseph's 76-Oregon
Add the current AQs to the "solid" at-large candidates (current tournament odds at 90 percent or better), and there are now 49 teams in the field. Add in the remaining automatic qualifiers yet to be decided, and that's eight more spots. All told, 57 of the 68 spots are accounted for, with 11 still up for grabs among current "bubble" teams.
The bubble (22 teams for 11 spots)
IN (11, in S-curve order):
38-Saint Louis, 40-West Virginia, 42-Colorado St., 44-South Florida, 45-BYU, 47-Texas, 48-Xavier, 49-Washington, 50-Mississippi St., 51-Drexel, 52-Seton Hall
OUT (11, in S-curve order)
69-Tennessee, 70-Oregon, 71-Northwestern, 72-NC State, 73-Miami, 74-Iona, 75-Arizona, 76-Saint Joseph's, 77-Dayton, 78-Marshall, 79-Ole Miss