Even if FSU and Clemson go, it is not necessarily good for UConn. The ACC may choose to stay at 12.
Or, I could see FSU and Clemson departures causing VTech to re-engage with the SEC, maybe taking NC State with them. The SEC will try for UNC, but I think UNC would prefer to be in the Big 10 if they were not in the ACC. I think philosophically, UNC would be very reluctant to affiliate with programs like Auburn and Alabama, particularly after the Butch Davis experience.
The Big 10 is all about markets for the BTN, and NC, MD and VA are three of the best markets adjacent to Big 10 country, and all are growing whereas the Big 10 markets are all shrinking. I could see a situation where all 3 pursue Big 10 membership, and the Big 10 accepts them, because in the big 10 revenue model, it is not locked into network TV contracts to expand its top line.
Here is where my theory about what happens next gets a bit creative. I don't see Duke, Wake, et al getting real excited about joining a league with UCF and Memphis. If 6 or 7 ACC schools have left or are trying to leave, I could see the rest deciding that they are not the SEC or the Big 10, and really don't want to be. But the TV rights market is so frothy, they could make incredible dollars by historical standards, without sinking into the cesspool that is big time football.
So Duke, Wake, BCU, Pitt, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and maybe Miami decide to go for the top academics. They invite Northwestern, Vanderbilt, maybe Rice, Tulane and Villanova. Add Notre Dame and Georgetown as basketball only members. That ACC would get a decent, not spectacular contract, especially if Notre Dame was affiliated.
The Big 10 lets Northwestern go as a 1 for 3 swap to get the MD, VA and NC markets for the BTN. The SEC may squawk, but I suspect most SEC schools would be happy to see Vanderbilt go, and maybe they take Miami or TCU or WVU if they have not signed the GOR yet. The Big 12 replaces TCU with Louisville, and maybe grabs BYU and Cincinnati if it wants to expand to 14.
In that scenario, UConn and Rutgers are totally screwed. Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown and Villanova are gone. Without Louisville and Cincinnati, with with the 3 hoops schools gone, NBC may not be interested anymore so Boise and SDSU decide to stay home in the MWC.