UConn vs Illinois (Final Four) | Page 8 | The Boneyard

UConn vs Illinois (Final Four)

CTBasketball said:
Evans and Boozer both called to be taken out at the U16 TO and were gasping for air after chasing Karaban/guards around all our wheel actions and pins.

It’s a big factor in the 2H, and Illinois plays low tempo because they don’t have high level athletes who run like gazelles.
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The call here and around the sport has been that being huge wins. You need giant front courts. And maybe Michigan proves that right. But there is a reason why it's not a no-brainer, and it's this -- those giant guys get worn out chasing non-giants all over the floor.

Karaban even gets called "unathletic" because he's not big enough. But he can sure run around screens all day.

Skeptics say this is about playing "pretty" instead of what they'd prefer. Maybe. But it's done OK for us.
 
that game is still pretty relevant because they'll try to prepare for plays that they saw back then. back then we ran a ton of plays for solo.

this creates the opportunity of running different plays for other guys and using solo as a decoy. just because they saw uconn once before doesn't mean it gets too much easier. the basic issue for them is still that they don't play the muck it up physical defense that seems to be more effective.
 
My early keys to the game:

1. Reed v.s. Wagler. Which team does a better job of taking away the other team's superstar?

2. Alex. Who does Illinois use to guard him? Can we force them to play small?

3 Coaching. Underwood is a good coach, but this his first Final 4. Hurley has been here 3 times in 4 years. Do either coach throw a winkle into the game since we played earlier in the year.

4 60s. This is where we want this game. This is not a team we want to get into a shootout with. We want this to be a grind it out kind of game.
 
KingAG said:
I’m drawing a delineation between Vegas odds/KenPom numbers and national discourse. The national discourse does not have Illinois favored.

I definitely wouldn’t say we are an underdog.
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We're obviously an underdog, that's what the point spread says. And I hope Hurley uses this as a motivational tactic.
 
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Saw this from an Illinois fan and I actually think it's a pretty spot on description of our team:

UConn can lose to literally anyone, which we've seen this season. They can also beat anyone, which is also what we've seen this season. Their game vs Duke is a microcosm of who they are. In the first half, they looked like the team that lost to St. John's by 20. In the second half, they looked like the team that beat St. John's by 30 plus. Actually, their game vs Michigan State was another example. They were beating the brakes off of them in the first half, they coughed it all up and it was a barnburner. They also lost to Marquette.

It's a weird team. Very volatile.
 
RuffRuff said:


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I thought Koa Peat should be higher. He really impresses me. Silas at his peak this year would be higher but lately it is maybe a little high. Hoping with another week's rest he is closer to his peak. I have to admit I haven't seen much Michigan or Illinois to be informed about his competitors but count my biased vote Reed #1.
 
Kemba15 said:
We're obviously an underdog, that's what the point spread says. And I hope Hurley uses this as a motivational tactic.
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Point spreads are 90% based off of mindless metrics. Hurley has been pulling starters up 15 when he can to boost the bench minutes. Hurts metrics because our leads/win margins slip.

Also the Big East went into the season destined to not be a metrics conference and it hurt them. The Big Ten did.
 
I was curious to the point spread when for our MSG game, so asked chatgpt

"For the Nov. 28, 2025 UConn vs. Illinois game at Madison Square Garden, the betting line moved a bit depending on timing, but here’s the key:
  • Opening line: UConn -1.5
  • By game day (widely reported): around UConn -3.5
"

I guess its pretty similar except the points must have come from being in MSG, and now they are getting the points being closer to home. What else does it mean ? Is it factoring in the limited Reed and Mullins min expectation last time vs Wagler improvement is canceling affect ?


 
CTBasketball said:
Point spreads are 90% based off of mindless metrics. Hurley has been pulling starters up 15 when he can to boost the bench minutes. Hurts metrics because our leads/win margins slip.

Also the Big East went into the season destined to not be a metrics conference and it hurt them. The Big Ten did.
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I have no idea what most of this means lol. We are an underdog in this game, which is fine. No reason to run from the truth
 
Kemba15 said:
We're obviously an underdog, that's what the point spread says. And I hope Hurley uses this as a motivational tactic.
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If you think anyone who watches CBB thinks UConn is an underdog I have a bridge to sell you. The discourse has been majority even or even more slightly UConn leaning.
 
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Kemba15 said:
We're obviously an underdog, that's what the point spread says. And I hope Hurley uses this as a motivational tactic.
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Illinois looks to be favored by 2 points and around 70% of the public is betting UConn to cover.
 
superjohn said:
Illinois looks to be favored by 2 points and around 70% of the public is betting UConn to cover.
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Yeah the public is on UConn which I said in an earlier comment. Sometimes the public bets the team getting points. But that doesn’t make them the favorite
 
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Illinois fan here. I've been reading the comments with interest. You all are correct: The Elite Eight game is definitely imprinted on my brain. The only solace is that that UConn team was one of the all-time great ones. I also took my son to see the UConn game at MSG this season. I don't think he was impressed with the Illini. LOL
Just a few things to watch out for during the game:
* Boswell will definitely not score 25 in this game. He broke his hand in February and all confidence in his shot seems to be gone. I doubt that he will take more than 1-2 outside shots this game. He's in there for his defense.
*Jake Davis starts but that's for continuity's sake: when Stojakovic was injured they started Davis and they've just kept that line-up. Stojakovic will play the bulk of the minutes.
*As you've pointed out, Mirkovic doesn't have an obvious defensive role against UConn. He's definitely much slower than Karaban. However, he's arguably their 2nd best player so he'll certainly be in there. Underwood has played much more zone this year and this would seem to be the game for that. They're the tallest team in the country and I look for them to dare UConn to shoot over them. Look for Illinois to get the ball to Mirkovic on offense-they'll have an advantage near the basket there.
*Underwood believes in having opposing teams take tough twos so I would imagine they'll play Reed pretty much straight up. Even if he's wrecking them.
*Illinois' big weakness is quick guards who can get into the lane and deal. It would be to UConn's benefit if Demary tested them there.
*Illinois usually jacks up a lot of 3s but they're only average at making them. A lot of their success this year has been predicated on offensive rebounding. If UConn can negate that then they will have a huge advantage. In fact, that could be the defining key to the game.
*Some people have noted Illinois' very high offensive efficiency rate. That's not because they are explosive, have great shooters or play fast but because 1) They rarely take bad shots 2) Offensive rebounding. They play at a somewhat slow pace so they won't mind a low scoring game.
*You'll see little or no midrange shots by Illinois, It's either get to the basket or shoot a 3.
It should be a great game. I don't know if UConn fans are now somewhat jaded about Final Fours but Illinois fans definitely aren't!
 
poppopwow said:
Illinois fan here. I've been reading the comments with interest. You all are correct: The Elite Eight game is definitely imprinted on my brain. The only solace is that that UConn team was one of the all-time great ones. I also took my son to see the UConn game at MSG this season. I don't think he was impressed with the Illini. LOL
Just a few things to watch out for during the game:
* Boswell will definitely not score 25 in this game. He broke his hand in February and all confidence in his shot seems to be gone. I doubt that he will take more than 1-2 outside shots this game. He's in there for his defense.
*Jake Davis starts but that's for continuity's sake: when Stojakovic was injured they started Davis and they've just kept that line-up. Stojakovic will play the bulk of the minutes.
*As you've pointed out, Mirkovic doesn't have an obvious defensive role against UConn. He's definitely much slower than Karaban. However, he's arguably their 2nd best player so he'll certainly be in there. Underwood has played much more zone this year and this would seem to be the game for that. They're the tallest team in the country and I look for them to dare UConn to shoot over them. Look for Illinois to get the ball to Mirkovic on offense-they'll have an advantage near the basket there.
*Underwood believes in having opposing teams take tough twos so I would imagine they'll play Reed pretty much straight up. Even if he's wrecking them.
*Illinois' big weakness is quick guards who can get into the lane and deal. It would be to UConn's benefit if Demary tested them there.
*Illinois usually jacks up a lot of 3s but they're only average at making them. A lot of their success this year has been predicated on offensive rebounding. If UConn can negate that then they will have a huge advantage. In fact, that could be the defining key to the game.
*Some people have noted Illinois' very high offensive efficiency rate. That's not because they are explosive, have great shooters or play fast but because 1) They rarely take bad shots 2) Offensive rebounding. They play at a somewhat slow pace so they won't mind a low scoring game.
*You'll see little or no midrange shots by Illinois, It's either get to the basket or shoot a 3.
It should be a great game. I don't know if UConn fans are now somewhat jaded about Final Fours but Illinois fans definitely aren't!
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Great share - welcome! See what you mean about quick guards after looking at your latest box against Wisconsin. Not often a team can give up 69 total points to two guards. They gave up 49 to them earlier in the year as well. We don’t have a Boyd and Blackwell but Silas and Malachi could probably learn something from that film.
 
WhereistheDove? said:
The only thing I’ll say in his defense, is UConn had the possession arrow on a held ball, but you gotta take that risk and hold the ball there. As much as people are killing Boozer, this is obviously what Scheyer drew up and it was a horrible coaching decision.
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Possession arrow, 10 seconds left, one and one bonus instead of double bonus and a team that has been missing free throws. With two unguarded players at the far end, passing it is technically the correct play. The hot take people can't shut up long enough to think it through.

The execution was the bigger error, not the decision making. Boozer gets that ball 4 inches higher we aren't talking about any of this. And as I said in the other thread. Scheyer choosing to hide his worst FT shooters 80 feet from the ball allowed Hurley's guys to play 5 on 3 in the backcourt and successfully double team all three touches, including the turnover.

Scheyer's biggest mistake was calling the wrong inbound play, and it still required the refs not anticipating the foul and blowing the play dead.

In the end, it was just great plays by Silas, AK, and Mullins after a strangulating defensive comeback. By the time Duke realized they were being wrapped up, it was too late and the last minute fell in our favor, after looking like we'd come up just short missing the last two FTs.
 
I checked out an illinois message board and I gotta say not impressed. They actually think UConn does not travel well. I know the Final 4 is new to them but surely they must have at least watched a few games. Let's pummel that team
 
Kolumbo said:
I checked out an illinois message board and I gotta say not impressed. They actually think UConn does not travel well. I know the Final 4 is new to them but surely they must have at least watched a few games. Let's pummel that team
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The game at MSG vs Illinois in Nov must have been at least 80% UConn fans. The NCAA game in Boston 2024 vs them must have been up close to that.
 
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Interesting thread. I agree. Don’t think we should be completely discounting the outcome of that game
 
Marat said:
The game at MSG vs Illinois in Nov must have been at least 80% UConn fans. The NCAA game in Boston must have been up close to that.
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Indy is going to be loaded with Illinois fans - 2 hours from campus and they haven’t been there in ages, and are huge. We have great fans but I’m expecting UConn to have the smallest following there.
 
Another thing I am surprised a lot of people aren't bringing up. Illinois had a pretty clear path to the Final 4. They played Penn, VCU, Houston, and then Iowa to get here. I give them credit for shutting Houston down, but Houston has struggled to beat really good teams this year.

On the other hand, we played Furman, a UCLA team in the 2nd round who beat Illinois during the season, Michigan St (also beat Illinois) in the Sweet 16, and then the No. 1 seed in the tournament in Duke.

You have to beat the teams in front of you, and yes, we have benefitted from some favorable draws before. But UConn has played much better teams to get here. I know Duke was beat up, but they still were 35-2 going into the game, and had beaten Michigan on a neutral court about a month ago.

Yes, Illinois looks different from the team we played in November. I would remind them would put up 74 points on them in that game, and we got 4 points from Reed/Mullins.
 
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