UConn vs Illinois (Final Four)

[superjohn]

Another thing I am surprised a lot of people aren't bringing up. Illinois had a pretty clear path to the Final 4. They played Penn, VCU, Houston, and then Iowa to get here. I give them credit for shutting Houston down, but Houston has struggled to beat really good teams this year.

On the other hand, we played Furman, a UCLA team in the 2nd round who beat Illinois during the season, Michigan St (also beat Illinois) in the Sweet 16, and then the No. 1 seed in the tournament in Duke.

You have to beat the teams in front of you, and yes, we have benefitted from some favorable draws before. But UConn has played much better teams to get here. I know Duke was beat up, but they still were 35-2 going into the game, and had beaten Michigan on a neutral court about a month ago.

Yes, Illinois looks different from the team we played in November. I would remind them would put up 74 points on them in that game, and we got 4 points from Reed/Mullins.

Duke was no more beat up than UConn was.

Illinois and UConn are both very different teams at this point. I do like that Malachi carved them up.

 

[Marat]

We travel really well within that 2 hour radius, but Indy is a different story.

Yes agreed

 

[BFieldHusky]

Duke was no more beat up than UConn was.

Illinois and UConn are both very different teams at this point. I do like that Malachi carved them up.

I think Reibe matches up well here. Even if it's just productive first half minutes.

They don't have a great cover for Alex.

 

[caw]

Saw this from an Illinois fan and I actually think it's a pretty spot on description of our team:

UConn can lose to literally anyone, which we've seen this season. They can also beat anyone, which is also what we've seen this season. Their game vs Duke is a microcosm of who they are. In the first half, they looked like the team that lost to St. John's by 20. In the second half, they looked like the team that beat St. John's by 30 plus. Actually, their game vs Michigan State was another example. They were beating the brakes off of them in the first half, they coughed it all up and it was a barnburner. They also lost to Marquette.

It's a weird team. Very volatile.

I actually disagree with a lot of this. UConn has 5 losses. Two were to SJU and one to Marquette. Two teams that press. Zona is Zona this year and that was without Reed and Mullins. The only real question mark in the losses (IMO) is Creighton who just does Creighton stuff to UConn. I think there was a specific type of team that has beaten UConn this year. One that is strong, physical and presses. There just aren't many loses to say UConn will lose to anyone.

Now, if you want to say that UConn plays close games with anyone, I'd agree with that wholeheartedly.

 

[caw]

The call here and around the sport has been that being huge wins. You need giant front courts. And maybe Michigan proves that right. But there is a reason why it's not a no-brainer, and it's this -- those giant guys get worn out chasing non-giants all over the floor.

Karaban even gets called "unathletic" because he's not big enough. But he can sure run around screens all day.

Skeptics say this is about playing "pretty" instead of what they'd prefer. Maybe. But it's done OK for us.

Karaban is uniqueish in the sport. A ton of the stretch fours in the college game are not stretching the floor by making the cuts he is. Most are pick and pop, or stand still players who rely on quick swings/drive and kicks to get shots from three. It's one of the things that is going to make replacing him so hard.

I will say, in the first half Karaban was actually moving too quickly and wasn't setting his feet properly before taking his shot. And a lot of that had to do with the athletes Duke had defending him. They did a great job of putting Boozer on Silas/Smith on defense. Normally that would be a big no-no but with Silas on a somewhat bad leg and Boozer being very good laterally for his size, it worked a lot for them. Still it hurt them on occasion in the first half with Smith attacking and in the second when Silas relocated off ball and caught Boozer ball watching.

 

[HooperScooper]

The game at MSG vs Illinois in Nov must have been at least 80% UConn fans. The NCAA game in Boston 2024 vs them must have been up close to that.

Yeah definitely in 2024. That game was a sea of UConn fans, as you would have expected being so close to Connecticut.

 

[HooperScooper]

Illinois fan here. I've been reading the comments with interest. You all are correct: The Elite Eight game is definitely imprinted on my brain. The only solace is that that UConn team was one of the all-time great ones. I also took my son to see the UConn game at MSG this season. I don't think he was impressed with the Illini. LOL
Just a few things to watch out for during the game:
* Boswell will definitely not score 25 in this game. He broke his hand in February and all confidence in his shot seems to be gone. I doubt that he will take more than 1-2 outside shots this game. He's in there for his defense.
*Jake Davis starts but that's for continuity's sake: when Stojakovic was injured they started Davis and they've just kept that line-up. Stojakovic will play the bulk of the minutes.
*As you've pointed out, Mirkovic doesn't have an obvious defensive role against UConn. He's definitely much slower than Karaban. However, he's arguably their 2nd best player so he'll certainly be in there. Underwood has played much more zone this year and this would seem to be the game for that. They're the tallest team in the country and I look for them to dare UConn to shoot over them. Look for Illinois to get the ball to Mirkovic on offense-they'll have an advantage near the basket there.
*Underwood believes in having opposing teams take tough twos so I would imagine they'll play Reed pretty much straight up. Even if he's wrecking them.
*Illinois' big weakness is quick guards who can get into the lane and deal. It would be to UConn's benefit if Demary tested them there.
*Illinois usually jacks up a lot of 3s but they're only average at making them. A lot of their success this year has been predicated on offensive rebounding. If UConn can negate that then they will have a huge advantage. In fact, that could be the defining key to the game.
*Some people have noted Illinois' very high offensive efficiency rate. That's not because they are explosive, have great shooters or play fast but because 1) They rarely take bad shots 2) Offensive rebounding. They play at a somewhat slow pace so they won't mind a low scoring game.
*You'll see little or no midrange shots by Illinois, It's either get to the basket or shoot a 3.
It should be a great game. I don't know if UConn fans are now somewhat jaded about Final Fours but Illinois fans definitely aren't!

Thanks. That was helpful.

Any chants break out on campus this past Sunday night? 😀

 

[Irvine]

Just watched the game at MSG. UConn played well but weren’t spectacular and still beat Illinois by 13. I know both teams have evolved, but it gives me confidence that we can beat Illinois if we put in a solid performance - we don't need to be spectacular.

 

[Scottobot]

We beat Illinois by 13 at a "neutral" site earlier this season. How are they a 1.5 pt. favorite? I guess the bookmakers expect it to be an Illinois home game.

They (Illinois) have gotten better as season has gone one, and UConn had some struggles down the stretch. However I have to imagine that win against Duke felt so freaking good to the players, and I could totally see it solving all the slump / mental demon issues. It wouldn’t surprise me if UConn has some of their best shooting of the season in next game.

It’s the final four all the teams are going to be good. If UConn plays like the best version of themselves I think they can beat anyone.

 

[Scottobot]

Were you in Zona with Purdue?

I think what made that win special last night is after the first half and seeing how dominant Boozer looked, it felt like there was zero answers for him. And I mean zero. Anytime they ran anything through him, he'd either get a bucket or find a very open man, as we were triple teaming him at times.

I don't know what happened in the second half, maybe he tired out or the black eye phased him a bit, but they totally moved away from how they looked to find him with intention. Tarris playing out of his mind was also hard to predict. You could expect good, but he was other worldly great.

boozer made a lot of big baskets in second half. So many times he stifled UConn runs with a basket. The forced to
turnovers before Boozer got the ball Were critical.

 

[dennismenace]

I simply don't think it's conditioning. Duke arguably has better athletes than we do at most positions. Facing pressure is more mental than physical. It's mentally fatiguing. It leads to mistakes. Our team has faced it and dealt with it more than anybody, because it's damned effective against our offense and the Big East has teams that play that way.

Agree wholeheartedly that it is not physical conditioning alone. Mental toughness is just as important as physical. I think it is unfair to reduce the debate to an either/or comparison. It is both. Our team has faced it in a league that permits outrageous fouls against our offense. As was predicted by many we are not seeing nearly that much in the NCAA. It is damned effective as you say because the BE refs have obviously been told by the league to permit all kinds of grabbing of shirts (a deliberate illegal foul that should be a technical) and bully ball stuff because the opposing coaches know they can get away with it (or would have to chase our players as they run the merry go round offense) rather than study it and learn to defend against it. You have to have sympathy with Dan Hurley on that. That's why you only see it in the BE. The fact that Duke has better athletes means much less if they are not conditioned as well as their opponents. And it really starts to show in the second half of games. Hurley, like JC, has always had better conditioned athletes even if not as gifted athletically. Duke players athleticism is limited also by their lack of experience (one and done) as opposed to most of their opponents who have players with more upperclassmen. That creates mental havoc due to inexperience. I think the portal has shown that teams can greatly benefit getting physically/mentally more developed players to fill out their roster if they haven't home grown them. The fact that Duke and formerly Kentucky and North Carolina always had more McDonalds All Americans shows that they may have had the most talented but not necessarily battle tested players and it did not translate into NCs. "Back in the day" when players stuck around this gave them a tremendous edge but not so any more. We see all the teams now going into the portal to fill talent and even more importantly experience. I like this setup better because it gives everyone a chance to better themselves and their teams.

 

[dennismenace]

The call here and around the sport has been that being huge wins. You need giant front courts. And maybe Michigan proves that right. But there is a reason why it's not a no-brainer, and it's this -- those giant guys get worn out chasing non-giants all over the floor.

Karaban even gets called "unathletic" because he's not big enough. But he can sure run around screens all day.

Skeptics say this is about playing "pretty" instead of what they'd prefer. Maybe. But it's done OK for us.

Especially inside the BE where teams are allowed to mug what they cannot/will not defend against. It's a sad commentary on our league which chooses to permit this. Grabbing jerseys should be a technical foul.

 

[DRBackup]

All of the predictive metrics have Illinois above us based on the total performance throughout the year.

That's great and all, but previous head to head performance should matter. Anyone laying money on this game based on KenPom numbers and ignoring what UConn did to them in November is a fool, soon separated from their money

 

[DRBackup]

Tarris playing out of his mind was also hard to predict.

It was ? I guess you could have said that before his 31 pt 27 reb performance in round 1, but he's played like that 4 straight games now. What would be hard to predict is if he didn't play that way

 

[DRBackup]

I love that we are underdogs. I love that we beat Duke with absolutely no shooting and I love that we are a defensive oriented team now. Defense travels.

And it is especially hard, typically, for a freshman to excel against a UConn defense.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Duke was no more beat up than UConn was.

Illinois and UConn are both very different teams at this point. I do like that Malachi carved them up.

And I have to believe Reed is going to attempt more than 3 shots, make more than 0, and ultimately get more than 2 points (first game back after his ankle injury)

Just needs to stay out of foul trouble

 

[FfldCntyFan]

My advice to Illinois

 

[drayenob]

I checked out an illinois message board and I gotta say not impressed. They actually think UConn does not travel well. I know the Final 4 is new to them but surely they must have at least watched a few games. Let's pummel that team

I would guess it was 80-20 or even 90-10 Purdue in Phoenix in 2024.

 

[jibsey]

We live and die on defense, Hurley always has. In the last 5 minutes of the Duke game Duke scored 4 points? That’s how games are won even when you start a game 1-18 from 3. I realize that it took the team almost an entire half to figure out how to shut Duke down but that’s what has to happen for UConn to win. Better shooting might reduce our stress levels.

 

[Zanzman]

View attachment 118973

I knew CL meant cheer leaderr

 

[drayenob]

When I think of Brad Underwood I think of this:

 

[FightOnCT]

There are two things I have to say about this matchup:

1. Metrics are the reason Illinois is favored though I think ours have been dampened this whole season due to playing in a league where our weaknesses are easier to exploit by weaker teams. The specific gritty, aggressive style in the Big East is perfect for mucking up games and removing flow that you won’t see elsewhere.

2. Illinois forces the least amount of turnovers in the entire country, dead last in DTO%. That should allow for us to have more flow offensively as long as we execute well

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Going back and watching the November game again and a few thoughts:

1. Illinois clearly a very different team. Wagler started but was at best a complementary player. Boswell very ball dominant.
2. UConn is also VERY different than that team. Mullins only played ten and looked like a guy making his collegiate debut and Reed was absolutely not 100%.
3. On Reed, it’s striking how slow and unathletic he looks compared to now, which really showed up on the defensive end and I think led to his foul trouble. That ankle was far from 100%. He just couldn’t really guard Illinois’ screen actions up top and really struggled to get back into position quickly enough. Both offensively and defensively, Underwood is going to have to gameplan against a MUCH better player.
4. I forgot how awful Illinois was at guarding UConn’s actions. Pretty much across the board the entire team had tons of issues with blown switches, going under screens and leaving shooters wide open, etc. We got a ton of open looks.
5. Solo really benefited from those issues. Had a lot of open looks and really got to the midrange and basket fairly easily. Both he and Mullins should have plenty of opportunities this game.
6. Karaban was guarded by Mirkovic and Humrichous most of the game and gave both real issues in those off-ball actions. I expect we will try to exploit that again and I’m not confident Underwood is a good enough coach to adjust. AK also held up on defense better than I would have expected with the size advantage. Mirkovic is definitely better now than he was back then but pretty much lived on the perimeter and midrange in this game and really neutralized his own size advantage.
7. Keeping on the defense theme, we gave up a surprising number of wide open looks from 3 that Illinois just missed. I do think a good chunk of that was just how limited Reed seemed defensively. The team had to send a lot of different help on drives that I don’t expect we’ll have to do nearly as much this time around.
8. Demary got early foul trouble and Smith played a lot and well. I expect we’ll see another strong game from Mal, both with how he’s been playing lately and the lack of real ball pressure from Illinois, which seems to benefit his game.

Really going out on a limb here but the key to this game is whether Demary/Ross can bottle up Wagler like they did Fears. Boswell killed us this game but I think a lot of that was Reed being slowed by the ankle injury and not playing nearly the defense he is right now. And Boswell just hasn’t been all that post-injury. If we make Wagler inefficient and Reed can stay out of foul trouble, I don’t think the rest of the Illinois guys are really all that problematic, especially since Underwood is so bad at in-game adjustments and I have zero doubt he’s losing the coaching battle to Hurley.

 

[husky8273]

Illinois lost 5 of their last 9 regular season games; 4 of the 5 in OT.

 

[Waquoit]

He hired Bob Diaco

Yep, and he did almost make Geno leave for another job. He gets credit for hiring Cav .But I’m glad he left when he did. Our new guy is much better.

 

[housekeys]

When it comes to fan support, there are underlying factors that probably favor UConn. One factor is the "power conference " versus everyone else. UConn represents everyone else. So any fans not favoring the P4's, are likely favoring UConn. Another factor is the B10 v SEC v B12. Again, the "a friend of my enemy is my friend" mentality favors UConn. Finally, Mullins is the Indiana "state" representative and he is a Husky. Of course I doubt the ancillary fans will be as vocal as die hard UConn fans that make the trip. So...

 

[king conn]

I am not concerned with Wagler because Boswell totally went off against us and we still won comfortably..

There's only one basketball. Substitute Wagler having the same kind of game and they are still at square one. Boswell is injured evidently and hasn't been the same player since.

Boozer ate and we still won. Edney ate and we still won. Its easy to forget now with our offense, but Hurley built his career with his defensive chops

 

[Waquoit]

UConn eats guys like Wagler for lunch. Boo Buie went into hiding after he played UConn. Same with that other Illinois kid who I forget. What about Drew Timme? He was a household word the day before he played UConn. I actually saw him in an NBA game a couple weeks ago and he was pretty good. I didn’t know he had made the show.

 

[Waquoit]

When it comes to fan support, there are underlying factors that probably favor UConn. One factor is the "power conference " versus everyone else. UConn represents everyone else. So any fans not favoring the P4's, are likely favoring UConn. Another factor is the B10 v SEC v B12. Again, the "a friend of my enemy is my friend" mentality favors UConn. Finally, Mullins is the Indiana "state" representative and he is a Husky. Of course I doubt the ancillary fans will be as vocal as die hard UConn fans that make the trip. So...

What it is, is excitement fatigue. These other programs haven’t done Jack lately.

 

[superjohn]

When it comes to fan support, there are underlying factors that probably favor UConn. One factor is the "power conference " versus everyone else. UConn represents everyone else. So any fans not favoring the P4's, are likely favoring UConn. Another factor is the B10 v SEC v B12. Again, the "a friend of my enemy is my friend" mentality favors UConn. Finally, Mullins is the Indiana "state" representative and he is a Husky. Of course I doubt the ancillary fans will be as vocal as die hard UConn fans that make the trip. So...

Conferences won't mean a thing to non UConn fans. Nobody outside of CT views us as the little engine that could. We're the biggest name in college basketball and the winningest program. Fans won't be thinking let's root for the little guy UConn.