UConn v. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Saturday 10/19/24 @ Noon @Rentschler Field). Game on CBSSN. Audio on Varsity Network/FoxSports 97.9

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

Wake -1 O/U 54.5

Wake Forest vs UConn Odds, Betting Trends, and Line Movements - 10/13/2024

View the best Wake Forest vs UConn odds, betting trends, and line movements for 10/13/2024. We've got their head to head and last 10 game results.

www.vegasinsider.com

 

[SuperHuski]

Wake Forest Scouting Report

8/29/24 vs NC A&T W 45-13
9/7/24 vs UVA L 31-30
9/14/24 vs MISS L 40-6
9/28/24 vs Louisiana L 41-38
10/5/24 @ NC State W 34-30
10/12/24 vs CLEM L 49-14

History:

• UConn is 1-2 against Wake Forest all time.
• Last win against them was on 11/15/2003 in Winston-Salem, NC. 51-17.
• Wake won our last matchup on 12/29/2007 in Charlotte, NC during the Meineke Car Care Bowl. 10-24.

RATINGS:

Team	Massey	Sagarin	ESPN
UConn	95	89	73
Temple	126	145	124
Buffalo	98	121	108
Wake Forest	88	93	94
NC State	79	82	85
Clemson	12	13	11

TEAM RANKS:

Stats	UConn	Wake Forest	Buffalo	NC State
Total Offense (pts/game)	44	76	113	77
Passing (yards/game)	85	49	130	70
Rushing (yards/game)	19	86	91	111
Total Defense (pts/game)	43	121	61	110
Passing (yards/game)	37	105	92	79
Rushing (yards/game)	68	97	78	70

Team Notes:

• Head Coach Dave Clawson has been with Wake since 2014, leading them to seven bowls over that time and winning ACC Coach of the Year in 2021 where Wake went 11-3, beating Rutgers in the Gator Bowl.
• 4-8 last year, only one conference win against Pitt.
• Lots of transfer losses on the offensive side of the line. WR Jahmal Banks to Nebraska, WR Ke’Shawn Williams to Indian, and WR Wesley Grimes to NC State. RB Justin Ellison also to Indiana.
• New look secondary after losing 3/4 starters. Two to the NFL Draft, safety Malik Mustapha (4th, SF) and cornerback Caelen Carson (5th, DAL).

Offense:

The QB for Wake is super six-year senior, #9 HANK BACHMEIER. You might remember the name from being a 3000 yard passer while at Boise State in 2021. He red-shirted and transferred after Boise fired the OC during his senior year there moving to Louisiana Tech and finally Wake for his final year of eligibility.

Wake Forest is best known for its RPO offense. Clawson added some interesting wrinkles to this offense which some people dub "Slow-Mesh RPOs". You'll often find Wake starting in 11-personal (3 WRs, 1 TE, one RB). QB and RB usually side-by-side in shotgun. TE is almost always a blocking TE. WRs are usually 2 on one side, 1 on the other. What makes this RPO offense different is that the QB is reading one or more players on defense (LB + S). The QB will hold the ball longer, the RB will linger around the QB, while the WRs will run some variation of dig routes (pivot-in), pivot routes (quick cut outside), go routes, hook routes, and slant routes. One WR is most likely a decoy used to free up the other WR. The QB is looking to see if both of his reads are committed to the run before passing. In this scheme, the OL's job is to create running lanes and not so much push defenders down field. If there is less than five rushers, the OL will often double one man to make the lanes wider.

In addition to the RPO schemes, you'll also see a lot QB designed runs to make use of the 6'2" 215 frame of Bachmeier. Often times they'll pull a tackle to be the lead blocker for these QB runs. Then Wake will mix in spread formations especially in their up-tempo offense.

By far, the best skill player on Wake is #1 Demond Claiborne (81 carries, 471 yards, 7 TDs). He's their all-purpose back, often lining up next to the QB in shotgun, but sometimes on the line as WR in spread formations. He'll get half the carries and will catch balls out of the backfield. Claiborne has speed, power, and wiggle. They also have a quartet of good receivers in #2 TAYLOR MORIN, #11 DONOVAN GREEN, #81 DEUCE ALEXANDER, and #5 HORATIO FIELDS. Each is over 200 yards receiving with at least 16 receptions.

Overall, Wake is going to be one of the more balanced (50% run, 50% pass) offenses we've seen, and one of the most schematically interesting. Lots of motion, lots of misdirection, lots of ways to confuse our defense. They are as balanced with their passing game as we are with our run game.

Defense:

The heart and soul of Wake's defense is #45 NICK ANDERSON, a junior DB. He leads the team in tackles and is a team captain. Still, the DB group is an extreme weakness for the team. This group lost studs last year as mentioned before and relied on transfers to fill in. Those transfer, like #3 CAPONE BLUE from Kent State, have been OK at best. This will be one of the weaker DB groups we will play against. Bad tackling, blown coverages, bad routes, undisciplined. Wake is bottom five in all of FBS in passing defense categories.

Their rushing defense is only slightly better, being bottom 40 in all major rushing categories.

As a whole, Wake's defense is the reason why they are at the bottom of FBS. Not just bottom of the ACC, but bottom of FBS. #128 in opponent yards, #121 in opponent points. They measure bottom 20% in all major defensive categories.

My Takes:

I don't get the sense that Bachmeier is 100% comfortable with this slow style RPO offense. It puts a lot of pressure for on the QB to make multiple reads in a short amount of time when his preference is air-raid, pro-style schemes. That's the reason why he transferred to LA Tech. While he hasn't been great with his command of the offense (63% completion, 55 avg QBR), he's still putting up great bulk numbers (112 completions, 1300 yards, 7 TDs, 2 INTs). This is not to say that I think he's a bad QB, just bad scheme fit. UConn would be in the B12 right now if we had a QB like him over the past few years.

The problem with Wake isn't the offense, which is averaging 40 points a game (minus the Mississippi and Clemson game). It's entirely the defense which is giving up 40 points a game (minus the FCS game). So they've lost a lot of close, one score games. Every game this season has Wake's opponents with multiple 20+ yard plays because of blown coverages or missed tackles, including the FCS game.

As great as the slow-mesh RPO sounds, it has a number of weaknesses. And our 3-3-5 defense has some utility that can beat this. Any sort of consistent penetration will force Wake to abandon it. To that end:

• Disguise our coverage pre-snap. In the 3-3-5, you can disguise who’s dropping into coverage and who’s staying in the box, making the QB’s decision-making harder. We can also rotate safeties. Start with two high safeties (cover 2 look) and rotate into a single high safety (cover 3 or cover 1) at the snap.
• Disguised our blitzes. The extra defensive back in a 3-3-5 can either blitz from the edge or drop into coverage.
• Heavy edge pressure. Show 4-3 or 4-2. Use our linebackers and safeties to apply pressure from the edges. This forces the QB to decide whether to hand off or pass much faster than he’d like. Bonus if our DEs make it to QB and start rattling him.
• Have a spy on the QB. Make him un-reactive to the initial developments of the play, confusing the QB.
• Mix schemes. Have the DBs play man, have the LBs play zone. This takes away all the designer routes and short throws intended to relieve pressure from the QB. Could really use our best man-cover DB back in Chadwick.

Those of you that watched NC State vs Wake would know that NC State also employs a 3-3-5 defense. For a good chunk of the game, the Justin Joly-lead NC State was winning. This was with their backup QB who replaced the injured starter in the middle of the game. NC State had a 10 point lead in the 4th but simply made mistake after mistake to keep Wake in the game.

I rewatched the highlights of the UConn game against Temple. Temple absolutely dared us to throw, dared us to do anything besides wide zone runs. Their edge defenders went laterally as soon as the ball was snapped. Their linebackers filled the cutback lanes. We didn't adjust, at least not until the fourth quarter. I do think OC Sammis is a quick learner so at least he knows how to counter that now.

On offense, given Wake's porous pass defense we should probably aim for a more 50/50 split. We don't really need downfield shots. 5-7 yards passes to Bell and Sheffield and let them break tackles.

Predictions:

I know the Temple game was scary for some of y'all. But our A-game is comparable to a top 40 team. One that is fully capable of blowing out Wake and winning out the rest of the season.

The biggest question for me is: which UConn offense is going to show up against Wake? Because if it's the inspired FAU/Buffalo/Merrimack offense, the one that controlled the time of possession, then we win by three TDs. We take aways Wake's best weapon, their offense, and keep them off the field.

If the Temple/Maryland offense shows up, then we'll lose by 21.

My guess is, it'll be somewhere in between. 35-28, good guys.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Defense:
Still, the DB group is an extreme weakness for the team. This group lost studs last year as mentioned before and relied on transfers to fill in. Those transfer, like #3 CAPONE BLUE from Kent State, have been OK at best. This will be one of the weaker DB groups we will play against.

Great readout, thanks. Hopefully Bell and Sheffield get to make some hay.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[BugsyCT]

Want payback for the Meineke Bowl.

 

[Tdaley]

Sounds like we will need to score some points in this game. Hope our offense has a great bounce back game this week!

 

[Chin Diesel]

Block C Helmets for Saturday??

 

[JeannoCT]

I was just driving through East Hartford, and there are signs advising that there will be road closures due to the Hartford Marathon running. So if you're coming to the game, check the Marathon's website for the road closures.

 

[huskymedic]