UConn v Duke, My take

[UConnCat]

Here's my take on tomorrow night's game between #3 UConn and #5 Duke at Cameron. I welcome any and all comments, corrections, disagreements, etc.

TEAM STATS

UConn
81.3 ppg (160-438 on 3s)
43 rpg
20.6 apg
14.4 to/g

opponents: 45.1 ppg

Duke
76.9 ppg (includes Wells' 10.4 ppg; 77-214 on 3s)
41.6 rpg
17.4 apg
17.5 to/g

opponents: 52.7 ppg

MATCH-UPS (ppg, rpg, apg)

Dolson (10.1; 6.3; 2; 26 blocks) v Williams (14.2; 8.7; 1.5; 73 blocks)
Advantage: Duke.

• Williams is a stud and improving with each game; will Dolson need help defending her and will Duke be able to make UConn pay for helping?
• Williams must outplay Dolson for Duke to win, though UConn has shown it can win w/out a great game from Dolson
• Williams runs the floor exceptionally well and I expect Duke will try to exploit Williams' ability to beat Dolson down the floor; if this is a real problem, look for Stokes to play a lot
• Duke plays a lot of match-up zone which will have to be extended to if UConn is able to make perimeter shots; this should give Dolson some room for her foul line jumper which she was making yesterday

Doty (6.4; 2.1; 1.9) v Gray (10.7; 4.9; 6.4)
Advantage: Duke

• Chris Dailey referred to Gray as the key player on Duke, the team's emotional leader and the player who makes big plays on both ends of the floor
• Gray doesn't take a lot of 3s (15-41) but she seems to take and make them at key moments in the game
• Gray is not the quickest point guard in the game, but she is very strong and tough to stop going to the basket if she's able to turn the corner on her defender
• She is Duke's best passer with 121 assists to only 57 turnovers; in fact, Gray is the only Duke player with more assists than TOs (Wells is no longer on the team)
• UConn will likely focus a lot of defensive attention on Gray and run multiple defenders at her which UConn is able to do because of its 4-guard line-up

Hartley (14.5; 4.0; 4.2) v Liston (11.4; 4.2; 1.4)
Advantage: UConn

• Should be a big advantage for UConn; Hartley is quicker and a much better player than Liston
• Liston's strength is her 3-pt shooting though she struggles to take and make shots against ranked teams (3-11 combined against ND, Purdue, KY and MD)
• Liston is not a great ballhandler and not especially quick though improved over last year
• UConn will try to deny her open perimeter shots and force her to put the ball on the floor; UConn will also try to pressure her in to TOs

Hayes (16.5; 5.9; 3.3) v Jackson (9.7; 4.4; 1.2)
Advantage: UConn

• Big advantage for UConn, particularly since Hayes has stepped up her game
• Tiff has played well against Duke in the past
• Jackson is strong and physical and a good offensive rebounder who scores most of her points in the lane or on short jumpers; she is not especially quick and won't be able to guard Tiffany one-on-one

Faris (7.0; 4.9; 4.4) v Peters (10.0; 4.9; 1.4)
Advantage: UConn

• I'll give the advantage to Faris because she's a better playmaker, ballhandler and defender
• Peters is having a solid year for Duke; she doesn't shoot much from the perimeter (6-19 on 3s) but can score pretty effectively in the lane, esp on reverse layups off of feeds from Gray, or on jumpers from the short corner
• Peters can struggle with TOs when pressed; UConn will try to force her to put the ball on floor

Bench
UConn: KML, Stokes and Banks (23.3; 11.2; 3.4) v Duke: Selby, Vernerey and Scheer (15.1; 8.4; 3)
Advantage: UConn

• UConn's advantage here is because of KML whose ability to make perimeter shots will be an important part of the game; how will KML respond to the Cameron environment? Will Duke look to double KML on ball screens and force TOs much like ND did?
• KML's parents (at least her mom) will be at the game
• Duke sometimes plays Vernerey and Williams together; will Geno counter with Stokes and Dolson?
• Selby was considered an excellent perimeter shooter coming out of HS but hasn't shot as well as I expected in college; she can be dangerous, however.
• Will Buck see action if UConn is struggling against Williams?

Coaching
Advantage: UConn

Intangibles:
Advantage: Duke

• Duke will be looking for redemption after getting blown out by UConn in the last 3 matchups including twice last year
• Duke has a lot to prove
• All but Hayes and Doty will be playing in Cameron for the 1st time; how will the young UConn players respond to the hostile crowd?
• UConn typically plays very well in big games; will that trend continue?

Miscellaneous Observations/Thoughts/Questions

• If both teams play their A game UConn should win as it is the better team in all aspects of the game; but, will UConn be able to keep its composure in a tough environment?
• UConn has shot the ball very well in Cameron which is known to be a shooter-friendly gym; will UConn continue its hot-shooting in Cameron?
• Most teams will need to make 3s to beat UConn which is not a Duke strength; ND was able to beat UConn without making many 3s (also not an ND strength) because of its ability to get to the FT line; will UConn be able to defend Duke w/out fouling?
• With the exception of Williams, UConn's guards are faster and quicker than their Duke counterparts; will UConn be able to take advantage of its superior transition game?
• Both teams like to pressure the ball, including using full-court pressure; with Wells out, UConn has superior ballhandlers; UConn struggled with TOs against ND but ND's defenders have exceptionally quick hands which I don't see in this Duke team (exc Gray); which team will do a better job of taking care of the ball?
• Duke plays a variety of defenses though its match-up zone is its staple; UConn had no trouble with the zone last year, likely because of extra attention on Maya; UConn will need to make shots to force Duke to extend that zone and open up room inside

 

[speedoo]

Excellent analysis Cat, sounds like you have seen a lot of Duke this year.

So if Duke's ballhandling other than Gay is not great and they are not especially quick, the UConn press could be a factor, unlike vs. USF.

 

[UConnCat]

Excellent analysis Cat, sounds like you have seen a lot of Duke this year.

So if Duke's ballhandling other than Gay is not great and they are not especially quick, the UConn press could be a factor, unlike vs. USF.

It could be. Duke could use Williams to help relieve pressure in the backcourt which will be okay with UConn.

 

[Tonyc]

Great job Cat. Duke has had a problem with UConn. This season and as of right now Tiffany in on fire. UConn is going to be up for this game and their execution will be pin point. UConn has too many weapons on both sides of the ball. It may not be as ugly as last season but UConn will win big.

 

[EricLA]

great analysis cat. i'm a little surprised at UCONN's slow starts the last few games - vs. Syracuse they were down 18-11 and USF gave them a tough game from start to finish. i'm not encouraged by UCONN's lackluster play lately. hopefully they can put that behind them and play well against Duke. several people on here have talked about the lack of defense played by the ACC, but in my mind, that's more of an urban legend. having said that i will be curious to see how the game unfolds from that perspective as well.

 

[wes33]

Geno will really challenge Dolson, look for her to have a very good game. She will probably be out side a lot to keep Elizabeth off the boards and clear the lanes. Duke is a very good team they just don't match up well with you guys.

 

[UConnCat]

Geno will really challenge Dolson, look for her to have a very good game. She will probably be out side a lot to keep Elizabeth off the boards and clear the lanes. Duke is a very good team they just don't match up well with you guys.

I agree on all counts.

 

[VAMike23]

I'm thinking Duke might play less of its zone and spend more time in M2M, due to past futility against UCONN with their usual defense, due to now having EW who can probably play Stef straight up, and due to UCONN having multiple players who can find seams and make shots if you give them even a bit of daylight that any zone presents. I'm thinking Tiff, KLM and Bria, all three are potentially lethal this way.

Furthermore, Stef loves to play high and against a zone you can bring her to that gap in the middle (FT line area or just below) and have her either quickly turn and shoot or kick it to the perimeter. If EW steps up to guard her then fine, but if not then a really good shooting and passing center like Stef will make mincemeat out of the zone, nd allow her to play to her strengths. I think what Duke should want is to have EW working hard against Stef most of the night in a M2M and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Sonny44]

Here's my take on tomorrow night's game between #3 UConn and #5 Duke at Cameron. I welcome any and all comments, corrections, disagreements, etc.

TEAM STATS

UConn
81.3 ppg (160-438 on 3s)
43 rpg
20.6 apg
14.4 to/g

opponents: 45.1 ppg

Duke
76.9 ppg (includes Wells' 10.4 ppg; 77-214 on 3s)
41.6 rpg
17.4 apg
17.5 to/g

opponents: 52.7 ppg

MATCH-UPS (ppg, rpg, apg)

Dolson (10.1; 6.3; 2; 26 blocks) v Williams (14.2; 8.7; 1.5; 73 blocks)
Advantage: Duke.

• Williams is a stud and improving with each game; will Dolson need help defending her and will Duke be able to make UConn pay for helping?
• Williams must outplay Dolson for Duke to win, though UConn has shown it can win w/out a great game from Dolson
• Williams runs the floor exceptionally well and I expect Duke will try to exploit Williams' ability to beat Dolson down the floor; if this is a real problem, look for Stokes to play a lot
• Duke plays a lot of match-up zone which will have to be extended to if UConn is able to make perimeter shots; this should give Dolson some room for her foul line jumper which she was making yesterday

Doty (6.4; 2.1; 1.9) v Gray (10.7; 4.9; 6.4)

Advantage: Duke

• Chris Dailey referred to Gray as the key player on Duke, the team's emotional leader and the player who makes big plays on both ends of the floor
• Gray doesn't take a lot of 3s (15-41) but she seems to take and make them at key moments in the game
• Gray is not the quickest point guard in the game, but she is very strong and tough to stop going to the basket if she's able to turn the corner on her defender
• She is Duke's best passer with 121 assists to only 57 turnovers; in fact, Gray is the only Duke player with more assists than TOs (Wells is no longer on the team)
• UConn will likely focus a lot of defensive attention on Gray and run multiple defenders at her which UConn is able to do because of its 4-guard line-up

Hartley (14.5; 4.0; 4.2) v Liston (11.4; 4.2; 1.4)

Advantage: UConn

• Should be a big advantage for UConn; Hartley is quicker and a much better player than Liston
• Liston's strength is her 3-pt shooting though she struggles to take and make shots against ranked teams (3-11 combined against ND, Purdue, KY and MD)
• Liston is not a great ballhandler and not especially quick though improved over last year
• UConn will try to deny her open perimeter shots and force her to put the ball on the floor; UConn will also try to pressure her in to TOs

Hayes (16.5; 5.9; 3.3) v Jackson (9.7; 4.4; 1.2)

Advantage: UConn

• Big advantage for UConn, particularly since Hayes has stepped up her game
• Tiff has played well against Duke in the past
• Jackson is strong and physical and a good offensive rebounder who scores most of her points in the lane or on short jumpers; she is not especially quick and won't be able to guard Tiffany one-on-one

Faris (7.0; 4.9; 4.4) v Peters (10.0; 4.9; 1.4)

Advantage: UConn

• I'll give the advantage to Faris because she's a better playmaker, ballhandler and defender
• Peters is having a solid year for Duke; she doesn't shoot much from the perimeter (6-19 on 3s) but can score pretty effectively in the lane, esp on reverse layups off of feeds from Gray, or on jumpers from the short corner
• Peters can struggle with TOs when pressed; UConn will try to force her to put the ball on floor

Bench

UConn: KML, Stokes and Banks (23.3; 11.2; 3.4) v Duke: Selby, Vernerey and Scheer (15.1; 8.4; 3)
Advantage: UConn

• UConn's advantage here is because of KML whose ability to make perimeter shots will be an important part of the game; how will KML respond to the Cameron environment? Will Duke look to double KML on ball screens and force TOs much like ND did?
• KML's parents (at least her mom) will be at the game
• Duke sometimes plays Vernerey and Williams together; will Geno counter with Stokes and Dolson?
• Selby was considered an excellent perimeter shooter coming out of HS but hasn't shot as well as I expected in college; she can be dangerous, however.
• Will Buck see action if UConn is struggling against Williams?

Coaching

Advantage: UConn

Intangibles:
Advantage: Duke

• Duke will be looking for redemption after getting blown out by UConn in the last 3 matchups including twice last year
• Duke has a lot to prove
• All but Hayes and Doty will be playing in Cameron for the 1st time; how will the young UConn players respond to the hostile crowd?
• UConn typically plays very well in big games; will that trend continue?

Miscellaneous Observations/Thoughts/Questions

• If both teams play their A game UConn should win as it is the better team in all aspects of the game; but, will UConn be able to keep its composure in a tough environment?
• UConn has shot the ball very well in Cameron which is known to be a shooter-friendly gym; will UConn continue its hot-shooting in Cameron?
• Most teams will need to make 3s to beat UConn which is not a Duke strength; ND was able to beat UConn without making many 3s (also not an ND strength) because of its ability to get to the FT line; will UConn be able to defend Duke w/out fouling?
• With the exception of Williams, UConn's guards are faster and quicker than their Duke counterparts; will UConn be able to take advantage of its superior transition game?
• Both teams like to pressure the ball, including using full-court pressure; with Wells out, UConn has superior ballhandlers; UConn struggled with TOs against ND but ND's defenders have exceptionally quick hands which I don't see in this Duke team (exc Gray); which team will do a better job of taking care of the ball?
• Duke plays a variety of defenses though its match-up zone is its staple; UConn had no trouble with the zone last year, likely because of extra attention on Maya; UConn will need to make shots to force Duke to extend that zone and open up room inside

Thanks Cat,
UCONN by 23.

 

[wes33]

I'm thinking Duke might play less of its zone and spend more time in M2M, due to past futility against UCONN with their usual defense, due to now having EW who can probably play Stef straight up, and due to UCONN having multiple players who can find seams and make shots if you give them even a bit of daylight that any zone presents. I'm thinking Tiff, KLM and Bria, all three are potentially lethal this way.

Furthermore, Stef loves to play high and against a zone you can bring her to that gap in the middle (FT line area or just below) and have her either quickly turn and shoot or kick it to the perimeter. If EW steps up to guard her then fine, but if not then a really good shooting and passing center like Stef will make mincemeat out of the zone, nd allow her to play to her strengths. I think what Duke should want is to have EW working hard against Stef most of the night in a M2M and let the chips fall where they may.

Coach P will change her D quite frequently, she will give you all her looks and need them.

 

[Kibitzer]

Carolyn Peck's take is that Duke will win. (Comment to Beth Mowins during Tennessee vs. Georgia game.)

She thinks the Duke PG (Gray) will be the difference because she will break the UConn press.

I guess we are doooooomed.

 

[VAMike23]

Carolyn Peck's take is that Duke will win. (Comment to Beth Mowins during Tennessee vs. Georgia game.)

She thinks the Duke PG (Gray) will be the difference because she will break the UConn press.

I guess we are doooooomed.

Peck picking the Dukies is especially good for our mojo

 

[UConnCat]

I think Debbie Antonelli may end up picking Duke as well. Last week on the podcast with Beth Mowins she said Duke has a "good chance" of winning. She'll probably make a pick tomorrow.

 

[Tonyc]

Well that dosnt say much for UConns defense. I think Duke needs alot more scoring from everybody not named EWilliams

 

[VAUConnFan]

Here's my take on tomorrow night's game between #3 UConn and #5 Duke at Cameron. I welcome any and all comments, corrections, disagreements, etc.

Intangibles:
Advantage: Duke

• Duke will be looking for redemption after getting blown out by UConn in the last 3 matchups including twice last year
• Duke has a lot to prove
• All but Hayes and Doty will be playing in Cameron for the 1st time; how will the young UConn players respond to the hostile crowd?
• UConn typically plays very well in big games; will that trend continue?

Excellent job. However, Kelly Faris was on the team two years ago when UConn travled to Cameron Indoor Stadium, but, inexplicably, only saw two minutes of action as the bench was cleared.
(Previous post deleted)

 

[triaddukefan]

While I knew UCONN was at or near the top of the country in terms of FG percentage... I didnt realize that Duke was near the top until a few minutes ago. UCONN 49.2% vs Duke 48.2 %.

 

[VAMike23]

While I knew UCONN was at or near the top of the country in terms of FG percentage... I didnt realize that Duke was near the top until a few minutes ago. UCONN 49.2% vs Duke 48.2 %.

Bet EW has a lot to do with that.....

 

[UConnCat]

Excellent job. However, Kelly Faris was on the team two years ago when UConn travled to Cameron Indoor Stadium, but, inexplicably, only saw two minutes of action as the bench was cleared.
(Previous post deleted)

You're right on both counts. I didn't omit her name because of her limited minutes in that game; I forgot about her (how could I!!). As I recall, Geno was trying to send Kelly a bit of a message in that game and Kelly received it loudly and clearly. For that reason and because of an uncharacteristically mediocre game on Saturday, I expect Kelly to play very well tomorrow night.

 

[HuskyNan]

You're right on both counts. I didn't omit her name because of her limited minutes in that game; I forgot about her (how could I!!). As I recall, Geno was trying to send Kelly a bit of a message in that game and Kelly received it loudly and clearly. For that reason and because of an uncharacteristically mediocre game on Saturday, I expect Kelly to play very well tomorrow night.

Kelly played 9 minutes in the 2010 game preceding Duke (vs Notre Dame). I don't remember if she was receiving a message or gimpy/sick.

 

[triaddukefan]

Bet EW has a lot to do with that.....

 

[doggydaddy]

Grandkids are in bed and it was a wonderful day.

Cat, GREAT job. Looks like I could be out of a job!

The only thing I would add is who Duke lost from last year. While they did add a terrific player in Williams, losing the two Thomases, along with Christmas is definately a big hit. Now, is the sum of the parts this year good enough to be better than last years team? We certainly will find out!

I'm hoping to get to watch the game tomorrow out. I'll be out to dinner but hoping to be back before the game ends.

 

[DWHoops]

Bet EW has a lot to do with that.....

Some, but a bigger difference is that Duke's players are attacking the basket more and getting better shots, especially since the ACC portion of the schedule began. They're going for the sure things in transition rather than making it more difficult than it needs to be. A great example of this is Richa Jackson, who is shooting nearly 63% in Duke's eight conference games to date. Her form hasn't changed - it's purely better shot selection.

 

[pap49cba]

Kelly played 9 minutes in the 2010 game preceding Duke (vs Notre Dame). I don't remember if she was receiving a message or gimpy/sick.

It was a message game.

As I recall Kelly had complained about feeling pressure to not screw up when she was inserted into a game. Geno then sat her and after the game asked her if she liked that better. As they say... the rest is history.

 

[UConnCat]

It was a message game.

As I recall Kelly had complained about feeling pressure to not screw up when she was inserted into a game. Geno then sat her and after the game asked her if she liked that better. As they say... the rest is history.

That's it. I knew there was a message Geno wanted to send Kelly but I couldn't remember what it was. Good memory.

 

[wes33]

Nice article on Dukes Gray http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/01/30/1816674/dukes-gray-combines-skill-with.html