Creighton basketball fan here, been lurking around since news about Big 12 expansion came out. I have to say, I find it preposterous to think that Villanova will be resigned to the same fate as Incarnate Word if/when the P5 split from the NCAA occurs...I also find it preposterous to think that P5 schools, who have an entire football team's worth of players to pay, would be able to outrun the BE financially when the BE only has to pay for 13 scholarship basketball players. Do you seriously think more than, say, 10 to 15 players per year in all of D-1 athletics will make more than 500k while still in school? I will admit my knowledge on how tv money works is very rusty, but when you don't have a football program to finance you give yourself a lot more breathing room for the basketball program
Lastly, I don't see how any "March Madness" style tournament game the P5 forms after breaking off doesn't include the 3rd best basketball conference in the country, with programs like Nova G'town Marquette etc. being left out. CBB is the sport of the underdog. You already ruin the tournament by stamping out the chance for exciting upsets. Excluding some of the nation's most storied programs seems like suicide.
There are things to discuss when it comes to the future of CBB and how it relates to what is happening with football-driven realignment. But, I just don't see how the Big East will "fall behind". It doesn't seem feasible to me. With the way the conference has performed since the reformation a few years ago, its still clearly one of the best conferences for basketball, top to bottom.