UConn-Tennessee- could this be the year? | The Boneyard

UConn-Tennessee- could this be the year?

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alexrgct

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Throughout the course of this season, the following teams will jockey for #1 and #2 seeds:

UConn
A&M
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Duke
Stanford
Miami

In all likelihood, three of these teams will be #1 seeds, and the other four will be #2 seeds. Now, if Tennessee beats ND and then runs the table in conference play, they'll end up as a #1 seed pretty easily. However, if they lose to ND and take a loss or two in the SEC, they could find themselves a #2 seed. Meanwhile, if UConn loses to Baylor, A&M, and ND a couple of times, they'll find themselves a #2 seed pretty quickly.

My point is this: if UConn is a #1 and Tennessee is a #2, or vice versa, isn't there about a 100% chance they end up in the same bracket? If so, ideally UConn is the #1, as the showdown would occur in Rhode island instead of North Carolina.

I have a feeling the selection committee is going to do everything it can to increase the likelihood of this matchup happening this season. Stay tuned.
 

UConnCat

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My point is this: if UConn is a #1 and Tennessee is a #2, or vice versa, isn't there about a 100% chance they end up in the same bracket? If so, ideally UConn is the #1, as the showdown would occur in Rhode island instead of North Carolina.

I have a feeling the selection committee is going to do everything it can to increase the likelihood of this matchup happening this season. Stay tuned.

Isn't it likely that UConn goes to Rhode Island even as a #2 seed? I don't know as much as others when it comes to the guidelines the Committee uses when placing teams in regional locations, but I find it difficult to believe the Committee would resist putting a #2 seed UConn in a regional that's about 70 miles from Hartford. I also tend to think the Committee will look to keep Tenn relatively close to its fans (in Raliegh), particularly this year.
 

EricLA

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i could see a more likely scenario of the teams facing off in the final 4, so putting them not in the same regional bracket, but in the same side of the draw, either as a 1 or a 2 seed. i'd be shocked if tenn. isn't a 1 seed - sure they have Stanford and ND, but the SEC will provide little competition, even tho Georgia and Kentucky are currently in the top 20. UCONN's OOC is just sick this year - A&M (4), Stanford (5), Duke (6), Oklahoma (18), Baylor(1) and UNC (14) never mind ND, Georgetown, Rutgers, L'ville, and Depaul who are all currently ranked.
 

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It is hard to imagine a scenario in which UConn isn't in the Kingston bracket.

Stanford TAMU and Baylor are clearly much further away. Notre Dame is on the "area", but is much closer to Des Moines than Kingston (400 versus 800 miles).

Stanford will almost certainly go to Fresno, whether they are a one or a two.

The big question is what to do about Baylor and TAMU. Putting them in the same region seems unlikely. Yes, I know it happened last year, but no one was happy about it. Last year, the regional was in Dallas so both were close, but that isn't true this year.
 

Phil

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Throughout the course of this season, the following teams will jockey for #1 and #2 seeds:

My point is this: if UConn is a #1 and Tennessee is a #2, or vice versa, isn't there about a 100% chance they end up in the same bracket?

While I think it is highly likely UConn goes to RI, I don't think it is as likely that Tennessee is in same regional as UConn. Raleigh is the natural place if they earn a one seed. If Duke earns a one seed, then complications arise, but if they are a one and a two, in either order, I see both of them there.

edit
If Duke earns a stronger one seed than TN, and TN earns a one seed and UConn falls to a two seed, then it could happen.
 

alexrgct

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Cat- generally speaking, geography trumps everything in terms of where teams end up. You're absolutely right there. Here's why I think an exception would be made:

  • There is a strong appetite for this game, as much as some folks on the Boneyard like to pretend it's passe' to care about that matchup. Although keeping the locations who host this event happy is important, none of them have more skin in the game than ESPN. ESPN has hundreds of millions invested in WBB, and if I'm not mistaken, the contract they signed in 2001 is set to expire soon. ESPN would kill to see this game happen, and I think they win that tug-of-war. If they need to slip some $$$ to the facility that potentially loses a big draw, so be it.
  • UConn as a draw in New England is a bit overrated, IMO. Yes, the default option will be to stuff them into the Kingston bracket, especially if they're a #1 seed. But consider the saturation of UConn games in CT. We would have a full regular season slate, PLUS the BET in Hartford, PLUS the opening rounds in Bridgeport, and then go to URI (which, though close to Hartford as the crow flies, is not especially convenient to get to from northern CT, BTW). UConn is one of the national brands in WBB. You could actually argue that UConn would be a bigger draw out of region by season's end than in it, especially if there's a prospect of UConn-Tennessee. Whether the good folks in Kingston would see it that way is another story, but then we go back to my first point as to whose interests are most important.
 

UConnCat

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Cat- generally speaking, geography trumps everything in terms of where teams end up. You're absolutely right there. Here's why I think an exception would be made:

  • There is a strong appetite for this game, as much as some folks on the Boneyard like to pretend it's passe' to care about that matchup. Although keeping the locations who host this event happy is important, none of them have more skin in the game than ESPN. ESPN has hundreds of millions invested in WBB, and if I'm not mistaken, the contract they signed in 2001 is set to expire soon. ESPN would kill to see this game happen, and I think they win that tug-of-war. If they need to slip some $$$ to the facility that potentially loses a big draw, so be it.
  • UConn as a draw in New England is a bit overrated, IMO. Yes, the default option will be to stuff them into the Kingston bracket, especially if they're a #1 seed. But consider the saturation of UConn games in CT. We would have a full regular season slate, PLUS the BET in Hartford, PLUS the opening rounds in Bridgeport, and then go to URI (which, though close to Hartford as the crow flies, is not especially convenient to get to from northern CT, BTW). UConn is one of the national brands in WBB. You could actually argue that UConn would be a bigger draw out of region by season's end than in it, especially if there's a prospect of UConn-Tennessee. Whether the good folks in Kingston would see it that way is another story, but then we go back to my first point as to whose interests are most important.

Excellent points. A potential Tenn-UConn match-up would certainly be the exception to the guidelines the Committee typically follows. There would be even more drama this year than in previous years.

Also, Phil raises a plausible scenario in which Tenn could end up in RI (as a #1 seed with UConn a #2 seed).
 

alexrgct

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It is hard to imagine a scenario in which UConn isn't in the Kingston bracket.

Stanford TAMU and Baylor are clearly much further away. Notre Dame is on the "area", but is much closer to Des Moines than Kingston (400 versus 800 miles).

Stanford will almost certainly go to Fresno, whether they are a one or a two.

The big question is what to do about Baylor and TAMU. Putting them in the same region seems unlikely. Yes, I know it happened last year, but no one was happy about it. Last year, the regional was in Dallas so both were close, but that isn't true this year.
That's the thing: there are a larger number of bigger draws this season than normal for WBB. UConn and Tennessee are national brands. Baylor has Griner, and Notre Dame, on top of being a school with decent national interest, has Skylar. You can stick Duke as a #1 or #2 in Raleigh and keep Raleigh happy, no matter what you do with Tennessee. Stanford absolutely will stay on the West Coast. I think Baylor and ND draw anywhere this season, and, for that matter A&M fans travel pretty well. In short, this may be a year where there are more good draws than usual, which might make it politically easier to put Tennessee in UConn in the same region.
 

triaddukefan

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As much as I hate to say it, but Maryland will be in the running for a #2 seed as well. They wont lose a non conference game, so they will probably be ranked in the top 4-5 at the beginning of the conference slate. I havent looked at TAMU's non conference schedule, but I can see them joining Stanford in the West. ND and Baylor in the midwest... TN and Duke in Raleigh... and either Miami or Maryland being the #2 seed in R.I.
 

Zorro

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'T'is a consummation devoutly to be wished!
 

blaqtech

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This game is a not going to happen unless it's the first game on the tournament. Somebody will lose before an Elite 8 match up. It's like playing the lottery.
 
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If Stanford and Uconn are each a#2, why would Stanford be a West lock, but Uconn not a Kingston team?
Fresno is about 160 miles from Stanford; Uconn 70 miles from Kingston.

Kingston, RI is actually closer to Storrs than Bridgeport.
 
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Cat- generally speaking, geography trumps everything in terms of where teams end up. You're absolutely right there. Here's why I think an exception would be made:

  • There is a strong appetite for this game, as much as some folks on the Boneyard like to pretend it's passe' to care about that matchup. Although keeping the locations who host this event happy is important, none of them have more skin in the game than ESPN. ESPN has hundreds of millions invested in WBB, and if I'm not mistaken, the contract they signed in 2001 is set to expire soon. ESPN would kill to see this game happen, and I think they win that tug-of-war. If they need to slip some $$$ to the facility that potentially loses a big draw, so be it.
  • UConn as a draw in New England is a bit overrated, IMO. Yes, the default option will be to stuff them into the Kingston bracket, especially if they're a #1 seed. But consider the saturation of UConn games in CT. We would have a full regular season slate, PLUS the BET in Hartford, PLUS the opening rounds in Bridgeport, and then go to URI (which, though close to Hartford as the crow flies, is not especially convenient to get to from northern CT, BTW). UConn is one of the national brands in WBB. You could actually argue that UConn would be a bigger draw out of region by season's end than in it, especially if there's a prospect of UConn-Tennessee. Whether the good folks in Kingston would see it that way is another story, but then we go back to my first point as to whose interests are most important.
The Uconn-Duke regional final in Philadelphia last year drew only 4,319. There is no way that Uconn would not draw more than that in Kingston--no matter who they play.
 

alexrgct

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If Stanford and Uconn are each a#2, why would Stanford be a West lock, but Uconn not a Kingston team?
Fresno is about 160 miles from Stanford; Uconn 70 miles from Kingston.

Kingston, RI is actually closer to Storrs than Bridgeport.
Because Stanford is a draw on the West Coast, and there are no other compelling forces (such as resuming a rivalry that would have been on a five-year hiatus by that point) that might influence their being sent elsewhere. Geography has primacy in WBB in almost every instance. The only instance, in fact, in which I could imagine anything trumping geography is a desire to make UConn-Tennessee happen.

And Kingston, RI is not closer to the bulk of UConn fans than is Bridgeport. Most of the fanbase lives in Hartford, New Haven, and Fairfield counties. Even I, who live in TOlland County, can get to Bridgeport much quicker than I can Kingston.
 

alexrgct

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The Uconn-Duke regional final in Philadelphia last year drew only 4,319. There is no way that Uconn would not draw more than that in Kingston--no matter who they play.
UConn-Duke drew a poor crowd because a) Philly was not especially convenient for either fanbase, and b) the game had already been played that year and was a blowout the first time around. No one had any reason to believe going to Temple (not even an especially nice part of Philly) was worth the time and expense. Put UConn in Raleigh against Duke or in California against Stanford or anywhere against Tennessee, and it will be a big deal.
 
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UConn-Duke drew a poor crowd because a) Philly was not especially convenient for either fanbase, and b) the game had already been played that year and was a blowout the first time around. No one had any reason to believe going to Temple (not even an especially nice part of Philly) was worth the time and expense. Put UConn in Raleigh against Duke or in California against Stanford or anywhere against Tennessee, and it will be a big deal.
I'm saying, put Uconn in Kingston, against anyone, and it will be a sellout.
It is difficult to predict the crowds in recent years. Three years ago, Uconn vs. 19th ranked ASU was a sellout in Trenton (which is no paradise).
 
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It is hard to imagine a scenario in which UConn isn't in the Kingston bracket.

Stanford TAMU and Baylor are clearly much further away. Notre Dame is on the "area", but is much closer to Des Moines than Kingston (400 versus 800 miles).

Stanford will almost certainly go to Fresno, whether they are a one or a two.

The big question is what to do about Baylor and TAMU. Putting them in the same region seems unlikely. Yes, I know it happened last year, but no one was happy about it. Last year, the regional was in Dallas so both were close, but that isn't true this year.

Unfortunately I think the only way Baylor and A&M are not in the same region is if they both end up as 1 seeds. A&M is a sub-regional host this year. So if Baylor is a 1-seed and A&M is a 2, they will most likely be in the same region. Norte Dame is also a sub-regional host, there is a chance of UCONN and ND ending up in the same region again if they are 1's and 2's.
 

Phil

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Unfortunately I think the only way Baylor and A&M are not in the same region is if they both end up as 1 seeds. A&M is a sub-regional host this year. So if Baylor is a 1-seed and A&M is a 2, they will most likely be in the same region. Norte Dame is also a sub-regional host, there is a chance of UCONN and ND ending up in the same region again if they are 1's and 2's.

I don't see it.

TAMU and Baylor ended up in the same regional last year because they were both very close to one regional, and not at all close to any other regional. The committee had conflicting goals - keep teams in the same conference in different regionals and keep team geographically close to home. Geography is king, so the conference desire bit the dust.


ND is closer to Des Moines than Kingston, so they would have to violate the geography rule AND the conference rule to put ND and UConn in the same region. Why would they violate both rules? What do they gain? There would have to be some very compelling arguments for other teams, and I don't see any.
 
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As much as I hate to say it, but Maryland will be in the running for a #2 seed as well. They wont lose a non conference game, so they will probably be ranked in the top 4-5 at the beginning of the conference slate. I havent looked at TAMU's non conference schedule, but I can see them joining Stanford in the West. ND and Baylor in the midwest... TN and Duke in Raleigh... and either Miami or Maryland being the #2 seed in R.I.
Your post makes sense. However, there is a long way to go, and a lot of games to be played before matchups are created. this adds to the suspense.
 

Vowelguy

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In Charlie Creme's first bracket he had Bay/TAMU both in Iowa and ND/UConn both in RI.
 

Vowelguy

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I don't see it.

ND is closer to Des Moines than Kingston, so they would have to violate the geography rule AND the conference rule to put ND and UConn in the same region. Why would they violate both rules?

I do not believe the conference issue is a "rule", but instead is a "preference?"

Consider a scenario in which Baylor & ND are both #1s (with Baylor higher than ND), and UConn is a #2. Under that case, there's a good chance ND & UConn both end up in RI. Baylor goes to Iowa because that's the closest. With Iowa out, ND is a tossup between NC & RI (mileage is quite similar).

Or Baylor & UConn are both #1s, with ND a weak #2.

It could happen. It's not how I would try to seed teams, but I wont be surprised if that's how it turns out.
 
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Geez, don't we kinda-sorta have to play a season yet? Creme's November brackets are the object of scorn for many of us, but people want to use them to try to predict how thi'll all end up? I know it's fun to speculate, but there's just too much uncertainty beyond #1 right now. After all, UConn has not exactly been a model of basketball efficiency, at least not yet. So I'm figuring that UConn-TN, which I would love to see, is right now about 50-50.
 

Phil

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I do not believe the conference issue is a "rule", but instead is a "preference?"

I was being casual. Neither geography nor conference prefernces are "rules". There are some rules, and there are some preferences. My main point s that the geography preference is more important these days.
 
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Throughout the course of this season, the following teams will jockey for #1 and #2 seeds:

UConn
A&M
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Duke
Stanford
Miami

In all likelihood, three of these teams will be #1 seeds, and the other four will be #2 seeds. Now, if Tennessee beats ND and then runs the table in conference play, they'll end up as a #1 seed pretty easily. However, if they lose to ND and take a loss or two in the SEC, they could find themselves a #2 seed. Meanwhile, if UConn loses to Baylor, A&M, and ND a couple of times, they'll find themselves a #2 seed pretty quickly.

My point is this: if UConn is a #1 and Tennessee is a #2, or vice versa, isn't there about a 100% chance they end up in the same bracket? If so, ideally UConn is the #1, as the showdown would occur in Rhode island instead of North Carolina.

I have a feeling the selection committee is going to do everything it can to increase the likelihood of this matchup happening this season. Stay tuned.
Interesting thoughts. I am concerned about our team developing. I would prefer not to think about a zoo like atmosphere. I hope to start a thread on comments Geno made about where the team is at this point re #s.
We are a team right now at 6/6 1/2 player rotation. Will we be 7,8/9 rotation? I think the goal and having us developed for this season would be if we can get to 9. Please injury free
 
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