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UConn - Syracuse

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It will be interesting to see how well Syracuse can offense rebound - they depend very much on their guards and wings to get those rebounds, and how long Q can send five after the boards if Uconn is getting a lot of them and then getting layups at the other end because the guards haven't gotten back. I think that will be very telling.

On starters - I think either Chong or Collier, because that will keep Gabby in the exact same role she has played the last half of the year as the first change of pace sub off the bench. I think Gabby is a key ingredient to this game and having her in her accustomed role is the best way to get her accustomed production. (On the other hand - her defensive pressure out front with Moriah can be really devastating to an offense unused to the quickness and pressure those two apply. So what do I know?! :))
 
I watched last night's second game and agree with others that Syracuse reminds me of Texas. Texas pressed and shot threes. We struggled a bit early but still won by 21. I also think starting Soniya would be smart only if Geno thinks she can handle the pressure,mentally and physically. I would prefer we keep the rotation we have and that would help. He could always pull her early if she commits turnovers.
 
HardHatGuy#2 said:
I have no fear of the Syracuse chuck-and-run offense; it depends on rebounds, and Tuck, Stewie, Gabby, and Pheese will snag them, not Syracuse. Bon-Bon and Nurse will steal their guard's lunch money. They have no inside defense; Butler may get a double-double if she gets the floor time (she played well against OSU). I'm also not concerned regarding their press; Rutgers practiced and planned their press, so the players were skilled at it; Syracuse players looks like they are in a popcorn machine - no plan, no structure, just street-ball press. I see many no-dribble fast breaks to uncontested layups.

The Syracuse plan was born of desperation, as the team cannot shoot (35% from the field, 28% from the arc) and aren't good ball handlers (A/T: 1.0). Coming up to the Tournament they beat nobody outside of the ACC. They are on one heck of a lucky streak, getting a good draw, watching South Carolina self destruct, and getting Tennessee after the pixie dust had worn off. This is not a good team. They may make hay for the first few minutes of chaos (picture Stewie as Arnold Schwarzenegger being overrun by kids in Kindergarten Cop), then gravity will take over and all will be right with the world.

This could be the biggest point deficit in championship history.
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THAT'S the kind of talk I want to hear.!!! NO FEAR!!!!! Syracuse is not going to bring anything new to the dance. They can't match up with UConn. That's not bragging, or being cocky. Its the truth. Sometimes the truth hurts. Some folks can't handle the truth. No more playing nice, or trying to be politically correct. This is it!!! UConn's going out, not with a bang, but an explosion. THIS IS UCONN'S YEAR.!!!! Embrace it.

I respect what Hillsman and his squad has been able to do to get to this point. But the party is over. Syracuse is going to find out and experience what Robert Morris, Duquesne, Mississippi State, Texas and Oregon State found out. The UConn Huskies are the best team in the country. Every drill, every practice, every lap run was done in preparation for this final game. UConn will not be denied.

This year, they have no peer. UConn has beaten every opponent by double digits. Its going to get ugly real fast for Syracuse, and go down hill from there. Syracuse is not going to fare any better than any of the other programs have so far this in this tournament.

I was 100% correct in ALL of my predictions for the Oregon State game, and I'm right now. ALL of the soothsaying aids (crystal balls, tea leaves, rabbits feet, tarot cards, etc.) I use, all point to UConn winning, and winning big. If you watch this game, don't blink. You might miss something.

Carnac says: Final score: 85-56 UConn :cool:
 
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Gus Mahler said:
I've been wondering about the dunk thing. The NC game is not a good time to be trying it. And dunking against Syracuse could be taken as bad form.

Or not!
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You may be right Gus. Maybe I got a little carried away. :oops:
 
Carnac said:
Anybody on Q's bench beyond the 3rd player, is not going to see any game time. With respect to the players towards the end of the bench, You and I have a better chance of getting into the game than they do.
Q can't even see down that far. Those players are strictly cheerleaders that got to dress out for the game, and are happy to be there.
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I dunno Carnac. I'm kinda hopin' both benches empty by around the 1 or 2 minute mark. :)
 
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nutmegger said:
UConn is currently favored by 24-1/2
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That seems too high.

Let me start by saying that going into each of the last three games I thought the point spread was too low, so I'm not a nervous Nellie. And, I see a lot of reason to be extremely confident, starting with the fact that the big three are the best threesome ever and I expect them to bring their A games. Not to mention that Geno has an unblemished track record in the finals.

However (and I'm hardly the first to point this out) Syracuse with a small, quick lineup and a tendency to shoot a lot of threes is the kind of team that has a shot even if it's a really, really long one. Now I know Syracuse hasn't shot well from three over the course of the season but they're 34-86 (just under 40%) over the last three games. Butler seems like a streaky shooter and she could get hot. Most importantly for 'Cuse's chances, taking a ton of threes is part of their game plan. To beat UConn you have to take (and make) a lot of threes. But, if that forces you out of your game, then you don't really have a chance. Syracuse can easily hoist thirty threes without changing their offense. And if they happen to get hot from beyond the arc it could be interesting.

Bottom line, I think they have a better chance than Texas or OSU. My prediction: 83-65.
 
After we wrap up the NC... and they are interviewing Stewie... she should do a mic drop and walk away :P
 
It is the nature of the fan to think that the next opponent faced is the most dangerous opponent to face in the tournament, with some just cause. After all, the next opponent face has at least made it thus far. Yet in the case of this senior class we have outperformed fan expectations save for three times: BYU, Dayton and Texas.

BYU had an inside presence and disciplined offense that Syracuse does not. Dayton had a disciplined offense that Syracuse does not. Texas got to see UConn in the tournament last year, removing the problem of adjustment opponents often face.

While losing Samuelson does give some pause that we might not outperform expectations, I do not see Syracuse as dangerous for us. Also, while Auriemma pulls back the tempo (and score) in many games, there's one noted exception, Syracuse, and Auriemma may once again have cause not to pull back for this very same team. Stewart in particular could, perhaps, see lots of minutes in this came. If I was a betting man I would take UConn and the points.
 
Have to respect SU shooters....they have 4-5 shooters on floor at any one time. Their ability to drain the three reminds me of ND, but they do not play with the Irish's discipline. But their speed can be dangerous.

That said, if we play our game and DEFEND, DEFEND, DEFEND, our offense will come and we will deflate their bubble.

I am confident that Geno will be ready and the women will be ready as well. Go do it guys!
 
Syracuse doesn't shoot a high percentage from three or overall. They don't shoot that well from the line. They got out rebounded during the season whereas UConn had a plus 406 margin. The one thing they do well is turn the other team over. That looks to be their only chance. They need a lot more shots than UConn and I'll be shocked if UConn lets that happen.
 
If Cuse makes shots, their athleticism could make this a tough out. Losing a 3-pt shooter hurts UConn. It will be tough to shoot better than they did on Sunday.
 
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Jeff H said:
Syracuse doesn't shoot a high percentage from three or overall. They don't shoot that well from the line. They got out rebounded during the season whereas UConn had a plus 406 margin. The one thing they do well is turn the other team over. That looks to be their only chance. They need a lot more shots than UConn and I'll be shocked if UConn lets that happen.
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They are also good at offensive rebounding. Long rebounds from 3-point misses are harder to defensive-rebound. UConn showed some vulnerability in this area against Texas, giving up 16 offensive rebounds in that game. By comparison, Washington gave up 17 O-boards to Syracuse. UConn will need to do better than that.
 
After watching Syracuse last night against washington I don't see how this is not a 30 point plus win and another title. Washington was embarrassing slow, played no defense giving up one open shot after another and watching them attempt to dribble against the syracuse press it reminded me of a cyo team totally inept. Their passes were cringeworthy and if not for 1 player who hit 8 or 9 3's syracuse would have won by another 20. Against Uconn their press result will be a Uconn layup line. Uconn unlike washington will play suffocating defense and will not allow more than 1 syracuse shot at the basket. Uconn will slice up the syracuse defense like a knife thru butter and their bigs will have a field day with the inside of syracuse D. Geno has no love lost for this team and will try to beat them by 100 if he can. Syracuse has done a good job beating all the teams they did to get here. But unfortunately for them they now get the VARSITY tuesday night. This will be like the louisville final a few years back.
 
diggerfoot said:
It is the nature of the fan to think that the next opponent faced is the most dangerous opponent to face in the tournament.
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Even before the Syr-Wash, I considered Syr more dangerous.
When you're an overwhelming favorite, a conventional opponent like Washington has very little chance.
A havoc team like Syracuse has a wider variance, and when you're the favorite, high-variance is not what you want.
 
vowelguy said:
Even before the Syr-Wash, I considered Syr more dangerous.
When you're an overwhelming favorite, a conventional opponent like Washington has very little chance.
A havoc team like Syracuse has a wider variance, and when you're the favorite, high-variance is not what you want.
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High variance is why shooting a huge amount of 3s helps an overwhelming underdog. Most of the time it widens the spread but every now and then it narrows it in a big way. And it helps Syracuse that they can hoist 30+ threes without deviating from their offense. It IS their offense.
 
vowelguy said:
Even before the Syr-Wash, I considered Syr more dangerous.
When you're an overwhelming favorite, a conventional opponent like Washington has very little chance.
A havoc team like Syracuse has a wider variance, and when you're the favorite, high-variance is not what you want.
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I understand the concept and agree somewhat. However ...
1. It's a convenient concept. If we slaughter them, chalk it up to high variance. If it's tight, chalk it up to high variance. Hell, if it's expected chalk it up to high variance.
2. What's the evidence that this class has ever had trouble with a havoc team? That's a serious question. Too my knowledge our struggles (if you can call it such) have been to disciplined teams that shoot the three well, not havoc teams. If we are tailored made to destroy havoc/high-variance teams, then that is what you want, but maybe I'm missing something from our performances the past four years. Now if you meant to say teams that rely on the three-ball there's more evidence to support that, but that's not necessarily the same as a havoc team.
 
Carnac said:
I've got a question that I would like some feedback on.....
We're playing Syracuse for the national championship Tuesday. This is THE game that Geno, his staff and the team have been practicing and training for since way back in October.
I completely understand the brevity and the importance of this game, we all do.

My question is: How much more (if any) will we as fans will be concerned about Syracuse and their potential of beating the huskies NOW, than we would have been back in December when UConn wanted to play them in New York, and were denied? Another way of asking is, are they more scary now, than they were back in December? I'm sure they will be some posters that will voice some concerns about Syracuse.
I'm not suggesting that we take Syracuse lightly. That's a good way to get beat. Are as good as we perceived Oregon State to be?

How much more or less should we be concerned. As much as we were over Oregon State, or less? The last three tournament, there was one team that gave UConn a tough and competitive game.
Three years ago it was BYU. Two years ago it was Dayton. Last year it was Notre Dame. This year we're down to one, and no team has really presented a formidable challenge so far. Is Syracuse the one?
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For one we should not underestimate them or take them for granted. And we won't.

They shot all over the place last night. We are down one great shooter. I hate that.

I will be nervous if Syracuse shoot against Uconn the way they did last night. I'm human but yet full of faith supporting Uconn.

But with that said Uconn's defense is a different monster altogether.

Butler is the only one who can gun it under pressure. We must stay in her face at all times without the ball.

Mo must play that CornerBack shut down defense on Peterson.

And yes they have to worry about Uconn as well. If not more so.

Hopefully these refs don't try to alter the game and let them play without the ticky tac calls.

Let's Do This.
 
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UConn played among its very best defensive games of the year against OSU, disrupting their entire game plan. Syracuse doesn't mind being disrupted: they'll shoot from even further from the basket. But a suffocating man-to-man will force them into even lower % shots. It's about maintaining the same defensive pressure--in a different way--than last game.
 
Waquoit said:
If Cuse makes shots, their athleticism could make this a tough out. Losing a 3-pt shooter hurts UConn. It will be tough to shoot better than they did on Sunday.
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Did we all watch the same game last night? The Syracuse and Washington game was all about jacking up 3's. There was no fluent offense. First of all Syracuse basis is jacking up 3's and trapping defense. They have absolutely no inside game. Only size is the Day sisters. The one that starts is the better of the 2. But they are no where on the same page as tuck Stewie or gabby. UCONN will own the inside game. Washington played horrible defense. As much as Syracuse hit the 3 good last night they won't get as many open looks. Secondly UCONN will be able to break there press. UCONN has length athletism and can go full speed for 40 minutes. Yes losing Lou hurts but in my opinion Syracuse is the perfect matchup for gabby cause of how athletic she is. Yes she's not a prolific scorer like Lou but her defense is far better at this point in there careers. GENO has stated gabby is the most athletic player on the team. I believe saynia should play some to. She can stroke the 3 and can create her own shot. It's about game match ups and UCONN in my opinion plays the best defense in the nation. UCONN has scorers at every position. UCONN has height at every position. Stewie will go off tomorrow night it's her last g around and mo and tuck. They will be playing out of there mind. Trust me they don't want to go out on the losing side. UCONN is the only team in the nation that can afford to lose a starter and not lose a beat. That's why UCONN is so good they get the best of all there players. There players are primed for the biggest stage. They work all season for this moment. I think UCONN wins big!! The shots won't come as easy as they did last night.
 
bags27 said:
UConn played among its very best defensive games of the year against OSU, disrupting their entire game plan. Syracuse doesn't mind being disrupted: they'll shoot from even further from the basket. But a suffocating man-to-man will force them into even lower % shots. It's about maintaining the same defensive pressure--in a different way--than last game.
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Yes, and defensive pressure leads to steals and steals lead to fast breaks and the inability for Syr. to set up their zone. One on one, particularly in the open court, Syracuse will have a very tough time.
 
Secondly not trying to down Lou and her injury. The fact it happened saddens me because u never want that to ever happen to any player no matter what program they play for. On the bright side this injury could have happened in the middle of the season and she could have lost the season and no chance on a red shirt. She could have had a major knee injury and who knows never been able to come back the same again. The promising side is she will come back stronger and will get her time to shine in her 3 remaining years at UCONN. Remember folks it's one game left and losing a starter hurts but it's not the end of Tuesday. We have 3 all Americans player of the year best point guard in the nation and some pretty good players coming of the bench. GENO doesn't just recruit any one or bring in any player just to fill a roster. If u play for UCONN your special. At anytime a player can go down its part of the game. Just means it's someone else's turn to step up. I think a lot of us are looking like Lou's injury is going to cause major issues. No disrespect for Lou she's amazing but one player isn't going to decide a game when u have a talented team that has shown all season long when one or two players have a bad night another one comes out of know where and has a huge game. I don't think tomorrow night will be any different. Syracuse pressure there 3's is all I'm reading. Let me tell u something... How is Syracuse going to defend UCONN and all there scoring weapons?? Not to mention Syracuse hasn't faced the UCONN pressure all season long. OSU would have destroyed both teams last night. We destroyed them by 29 points with Lou out with injury and Stewie having one of her worst half's of basketball in a long time. Enough said!!
 
Syracuse reminds me a little bit of Louisville 2013. Louisville didn't press full-court as much as Syracuse does but they did try to create havoc defensively in the half-court with different defenses and traps. Walz also gave that team the green light to shoot as many 3s as were open. I think before the Baylor game he told his team he would be okay if they shot 40 threes; they shot 25 and made 16. Louisville wasn't on target with its 3s against UConn (5-23) in the championship game. UConn defended Louisville better than Baylor did, plus the magnitude of the moment seemed to catch up with the cardinals.
 
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vowelguy said:
It's not "convenient"; it's math.



Show me where I said they did.
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Yes, I know variance is a math concept or, more precisely, a statistical concept. My first Bachelors was in Math with a minor in Statistics so I really can grasp both. Something can be both convenient and math based, but I do apologize for using that term. Perhaps "lacking in meaning" would have been less offensive and convey my point better. The variance of a basketball team's performance is not like random events, where there is nothing external impacting the variance. Consequently, to declare a team is less desirable to play because of high variance lacks meaning without considering the external factors, the other teams, that contributed to the variance. The more guard-oriented and/or experienced a team the less that havoc should result in better results. Logic does not seem to suggest, at least to me, that UConn should have trouble with Syracuse, high variance be damned. However, perhaps there is evidence to suggest otherwise. I asked my question about "What evidence" precisely because neither you nor anyone has provided such evidence of havoc hurting us in the past four years, but maybe there is a gap in my recollection and it exists. That is why I referred to it as a serious question rather than a rhetorical one. I would defer to actual evidence showing havoc could hurt us trumping my logic if some existed. Actually, I'm confused as to why you would request that I "Show me where I said they did," when my clear intent was to be shown something that has not yet been shown.

Anyways, I did not intend to offend and perhaps had a careless choice of words.
 
I think Soniya gets the start. She's been here . I still feel she is a talented kid, and fits into this type of game. She has improved her defense and is a good passer and ball handler. It might just be her time. Williams and Collier will get plenty of important minutes in their normal roles.
 
It could go one of several ways, all with UConn winning, but if UConn stays calm, shreds the press, and shoots relatively well, it could get ugly. Like largest margin of victory in a national championship game ugly. Syracuse might have to go 15-30 from 3 just to keep it respectable.
 
I posted earlier on this thread but I can't stand QH & 'cuse!
1. Geno and his coaching staff do not like QH & Syracuse! They will make sure their players are at the top of their game!
2. Even with KLS out, UCONN has too much of everything to have 'cuse make a game of it!
3. 'cuse tries to out shoot you by taking 40+ shots figuring they'll get 15 to 20 go in. UCONN will be all over them all 40 minutes!
4. 'cuse is so cocky, not confident, cocky, which is FALSE COURAGE, like their coach QH! All ego no substance. There won't be any "fainting on the bench" or Q going down the bench slapping 5. UCONN will shut them up quickly!
5. I think Collier will start to keep the height advantage, with Gabby coming off the bench. I see Saniya & Natalie getting more playing time!
6. UCONN and especially the 3 seniors will embarrass 'cuse with it's pressure and length and athletic ability & pull away to a 85 to 56 win!
 
I think that Williams is going to start and play big minutes. I think Geno may match her up against Butler so she can use her height and athleticism to stop Butler from getting good 3 pt looks.
 
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