UConn stats...turnovers.. :(

[DavidinNaples]

UConn seems to be struggling with turnovers more this year, than in the past. So far this season, the Huskies have had 441 turnovers in 26 games. That is an average of 17 per game. Over the last few years, the average has been closer to 14. Stewie's senior year, the team averaged 12 turnovers per game. There are many theories about the cause of the rise in turnovers, but upon examination, no clear pattern emerges. For example, two of the worst games for turnovers happened in the 8th and 9th games of the season (27 and 22 TO's). That hardly supports the theory that so much playing time has made players tired and careless.

Consider:
1. UConn has had as few as 10 turnovers twice and as many as 27 turnovers once. Those are the best and worse numbers.
2. The Huskies have had 20 or more turnovers nine times. They have had under 20 TO's 17 times.
3. UConn has kept turnovers below 15 on twelve occasions. Six of those games were in the 1st half of the season and 6 in the 2nd half.
4. In the four loses, UConn had 15, 22, 13 and 19 turnovers. (The South Carolina loss was the 13 TO game.)
5. If you divide the season in half (13 games in each half), the turnover average in the 1st half was 17.38 per game & in the 2nd half it was 16.53 per game.
6. Of the nine 20 or more TO games, 4 happened in the 1st half of the year and 5 in the 2nd half.
7. The three best games for fewest turnovers (10,10,11) all happened in the 2nd half of the season. (Games 16, 18 and 19)
8. Nika has the most turnovers with 88, Aaliyah is next with 78, Lou is third at 54 and Aubrey 4th with 49. But, everyone has contributed to this negative stat.
9. The three current bench players (Ines, Ayanna and Amari) have a combined 66 turnovers.
10. Opponents have had 376 turnovers vs UConn's 441.

The Huskies need to bring the number of turnovers down. Turnovers are empty possessions. At least a bad shot has a chance to go in.
Thoughts?

Go Huskies..!!

 

[VaConnFan11]

Something that I think has gone unnoticed is that UConn is not forcing turnovers anymore. The last 5 games' forced turnovers have been 14, 8, 6, 12, 9.

To me, that is almost more disturbing than the number of turnovers being committed.

 

[Urshurak]

Unfortunately, these turnovers are leading to extra shots at the basket for the other team. They outrebounded Georgetown by almost 2-1, yet Georgetown had 12 more shots at the basket. That is not a sustainable way to enter the big show......

I said it in the post game thread. No idea what the answer is. Hopefully Dr. Geno can figure it out.

 

[BBallF]

I don't consider 3 extra turnovers per game on average this year that critical on its face ( 17 as a whole is) but when you look at certain games it is. If we had 14 ( our historical average you indicate) against Marquette as opposed to 19 we have 5 more possessions. We shoot .514 from the field and .390 from the arc. Almost two out of every 5 shots we take is a 3. If we took 3 extra field goals we make 1.5 and 2 threes and make 1 we now have 6 more points. We lost by 7 but the separation came late in the game with fouling. This is how it plays out. Less possessions and you allow teams to stay in the game. Our bigs should not be trying to make plays with passes but we don't have a secondary PG- like guard out there. That is why Kara Wolters thinks that the Azzi factor reduces the turnovers. No question in my mind. It also means quicker shots from her with the need for only one pass not 2 or 4. Hence less turnovers since less passes.

 

[BBallF]

Unfortunately, these turnovers are leading to extra shots at the basket for the other team. They outrebounded Georgetown by almost 2-1, yet Georgetown had 12 more shots at the basket. That is not a sustainable way to enter the big show......

I said it in the post game thread. No idea what the answer is. Hopefully Dr. Geno can figure it out.

I still think Nika is trying to force and throw the perfect pass at times. She needs to just focus on the safe pass and let the offensive movement create the openings. Of course that is a problem when nobody has the energy to move. Possessions are a key for us because we shoot so well from the field. Every other shot goes in when you shoot 50% combined from the field. For non 3s and only 2s, we shoot 56%. You aren't going to lose many games with that number unless you limit your own possessions which we are doing.

 

[MSGRET]

When you have 5 players playing 35+ minutes or more for over a month. Then add in that you have never had everyone that began the season since the Texas game can throw a monkey wrench into the timing. For over a month the team has had to curtail most practices because they have to conserve their minds and bodies for games. Then add in the home - away scheduling that the Big East did it's a miracle that the ladies are able to win games. With the hopeful return of both Azzi and Caroline, they should be able to play less minutes and also curtail the T/O's.

 

[Conndog]

I still think Nika is trying to force and throw the perfect pass at times. She needs to just focus on the safe pass and let the offensive movement create the openings. Of course that is a problem when nobody has the energy to move. Possessions are a key for us because we shoot so well from the field. Every other shot goes in when you shoot 50% combined from the field. For non 3s and only 2s, we shoot 56%. You aren't going to lose many games with that number unless you limit your own possessions which we are doing.

I think the majority of the passing turnovers are ones attempted through the air- they either get picked off, or they are unreachable for the teammate. Sometimes we are trying to do too much. Maybe trying bounce passes more will lead to fewer turnovers, especially to teammates in the post.

 

[brownale]

Not forcing turnovers may be a result of:
1. Not using full court press much - probably not wanting to expend the energy due
to a short bench
2. Not taking risky chances - fear of fouling

 

[Stinger92860]

I still think Nika is trying to force and throw the perfect pass at times. She needs to just focus on the safe pass and let the offensive movement create the openings.

It’s unfair to blame it all on Nika, there are turns all over the box score and the players take turns (no pun intended) at leading the team each game

 

[browns]

Turn over ranking for the 5 teams ranked ahead of Uconn
SC-20
IU-22
Stanford-29
Utah-63
LSU-82
Uconn-242...that's certainly not too good

 

[HuskyNan]

There are two guards. When you have a bunch of forwards handling the ball, there will be turnovers.

 

[ccwarrior]

UConn seems to be struggling with turnovers more this year, than in the past. So far this season, the Huskies have had 441 turnovers in 26 games. That is an average of 17 per game. Over the last few years, the average has been closer to 14. Stewie's senior year, the team averaged 12 turnovers per game. There are many theories about the cause of the rise in turnovers, but upon examination, no clear pattern emerges. For example, two of the worst games for turnovers happened in the 8th and 9th games of the season (27 and 22 TO's). That hardly supports the theory that so much playing time has made players tired and careless.

Consider:
1. UConn has had as few as 10 turnovers twice and as many as 27 turnovers once. Those are the best and worse numbers.
2. The Huskies have had 20 or more turnovers nine times. They have had under 20 TO's 17 times.
3. UConn has kept turnovers below 15 on twelve occasions. Six of those games were in the 1st half of the season and 6 in the 2nd half.
4. In the four loses, UConn had 15, 22, 13 and 19 turnovers. (The South Carolina loss was the 13 TO game.)
5. If you divide the season in half (13 games in each half), the turnover average in the 1st half was 17.38 per game & in the 2nd half it was 16.53 per game.
6. Of the nine 20 or more TO games, 4 happened in the 1st half of the year and 5 in the 2nd half.
7. The three best games for fewest turnovers (10,10,11) all happened in the 2nd half of the season. (Games 16, 18 and 19)
8. Nika has the most turnovers with 88, Aaliyah is next with 78, Lou is third at 54 and Aubrey 4th with 49. But, everyone has contributed to this negative stat.
9. The three current bench players (Ines, Ayanna and Amari) have a combined 66 turnovers.
10. Opponents have had 376 turnovers vs UConn's 441.

The Huskies need to bring the number of turnovers down. Turnovers are empty possessions. At least a bad shot has a chance to go in.
Thoughts?

Go Huskies..!!

It seems to be not just the number of turnovers, but the completely "boneheaded" or "lazy" passes that our players throw (very much including our point guard!) Perhaps it is just me, but I started watching UConn many years ago because of the beautiful style of passing they used, which didn't have a great number of turnovers.

 

[BBallF]

It’s unfair to blame it all on Nika, there are turns all over the box score and the players take turns (no pun intended) at leading the team each game

I’m not doing that at all. I pointed out that the issue is the lack of a secondary ball handler and passer such that the bigs have been forced to make passing plays.

 

[meyers7]

Unfortunately, these turnovers are leading to extra shots at the basket for the other team. They outrebounded Georgetown by almost 2-1, yet Georgetown had 12 more shots at the basket. That is not a sustainable way to enter the big show......

I said it in the post game thread. No idea what the answer is. Hopefully Dr. Geno can figure it out.

It's Fudd. Get her back.

Avg turnovers in games without Fudd - 18 (17.9)
Avg turnover in games with Fudd - 14
Avg turnover in games Fudd gets hurt (only plays 1/3 game or less) - 19

Need Fudd to play full games.

 

[BBallF]

It's Fudd. Get her back.

Avg turnovers in games without Fudd - 18 (17.9)
Avg turnover in games with Fudd - 14
Avg turnover in games Fudd gets hurt (only plays 1/3 game or less) - 19

Need Fudd to play full games.

That's exactly right. A 2 guard who passes and handles like a point. It does 2 things. First, it limits the turnovers on the third or fourth pass because she is an experienced playmaker, not like a big. Secondly, due to her quick release when she gets the ball and is open, it's up, which means we got a shot off without an extra pass.

 

[BBallF]

There are two guards. When you have a bunch of forwards handling the ball, there will be turnovers.

100%. It's not complicated. Our second guard also has more 3 position skills than those of a secondary playmaker. She is a scorer by nature and talent. That is why Azzi is so important in the absence of Paige among other obvious reasons.

 

[Rowdy831]

When you have a clean fast break you usually don't turn the ball over. With UCONN his year they are forcing a lot of their fastbreaks which end up with an errant pass or some other ball handling mistake. The lack of depth certainly plays into that and the increase in half court offense also plays into it. The other side of turnovers means your opponent is getting some easy buckets off of them.

The injuries they have had this year impacted their ability to handle the ball. Once a couple come back the turnovers on their side should go down some, but even more important is they should pick up some too with better hands in the game.

With all their troubles they are still a top 5 team and the matchups go their way they will still be a very difficult team to beat down the stretch.

 

[MSGRET]

It's Fudd. Get her back.

Avg turnovers in games without Fudd - 18 (17.9)
Avg turnover in games with Fudd - 14
Avg turnover in games Fudd gets hurt (only plays 1/3 game or less) - 19

Need Fudd to play full games.

I think that the addition of Caroline will also help, she is a ball handler and a passer who can play both the 2 or 3 position.

 

[01Neaggrad02]

When a team is down Paige, Azzi, and Caroline, I would expect their number of turnovers to increase. I would expect to see their assist go down as well, but thank goodness we have Nika to keep our assist numbers in a good place. Also a good thing we good post players for her to pass to.

While the number maybe alarming, it is important to look at it in context.

 

[fomalhaut]

Unfortunately, these turnovers are leading to extra shots at the basket for the other team.

Absolutely correct.

They outrebounded Georgetown by almost 2-1, yet Georgetown had 12 more shots at the basket.

Overall rebound margin doesn't affect the number of shots, only offensive rebound margin.

 

[BBallF]

I think the majority of the passing turnovers are ones attempted through the air- they either get picked off, or they are unreachable for the teammate. Sometimes we are trying to do too much. Maybe trying bounce passes more will lead to fewer turnovers, especially to teammates in the post.

Some are just passes that should never have been made as you allude to. The problem with bounce passes also is the reception of them. When you are tired, the hands and brain don't work well together. This is going to get fixed by Geno, CD and crew. They are too good not to.

 

[HopJim]

Standing still and staring at the player you want to pass to are ingredients for a turnover. While Nika is the worst offender, all of the Huskies are participating. We all know the reasons why. Tired team without many ball handlers. Agree with other posters that when Azzi and Caroline come back, turnovers on fast breaks and half-court offense will both go down.

 

[Topdawg]

If you look at the per game stats, you can group the players into 3 arbitrary cohorts regarding turnovers.

1. Nika 3.7, Aaliyah 3.0, Caroline 2.7
2. Dorka 2.1, Lou 2.1, Aubrey 2.0
3. Azzi 1.6, Amari 1.3, Ines 1.2, Ayanna 0.9

I am not doing the per 40 analysis, or considering the possession time, or number of possessions, or passes.

I think the way forward is to examine the choices players are making. If they shoot plus rebound rather then make a difficult pass into a crowded paint area, they will have greater success. We typically take fewer shots than opposing teams, and we are usually low on offensive rebounds.

As a point of comparison against South Carolina, if you look at field goal attempts, free throw attempts, offensive boards, and turnovers,
SCAR
FGA: 66, FTA:22, OR:18, TO:13
UConn
FGA:57, FTA:17, OR:10, TO:17

If we track recent games, our offensive effort is lower than the averages shown above.

My point- the problem lies with what we are not doing. We have better shooters than most teams. We should be taking more shots. If players are guarded closely, take jump shots and draw fouls.

Others may have better ideas as this is just one point of view..

 

[Longtime fan]

UConn seems to be struggling with turnovers more this year, than in the past. So far this season, the Huskies have had 441 turnovers in 26 games. That is an average of 17 per game. Over the last few years, the average has been closer to 14. Stewie's senior year, the team averaged 12 turnovers per game. There are many theories about the cause of the rise in turnovers, but upon examination, no clear pattern emerges. For example, two of the worst games for turnovers happened in the 8th and 9th games of the season (27 and 22 TO's). That hardly supports the theory that so much playing time has made players tired and careless.

Consider:
1. UConn has had as few as 10 turnovers twice and as many as 27 turnovers once. Those are the best and worse numbers.
2. The Huskies have had 20 or more turnovers nine times. They have had under 20 TO's 17 times.
3. UConn has kept turnovers below 15 on twelve occasions. Six of those games were in the 1st half of the season and 6 in the 2nd half.
4. In the four loses, UConn had 15, 22, 13 and 19 turnovers. (The South Carolina loss was the 13 TO game.)
5. If you divide the season in half (13 games in each half), the turnover average in the 1st half was 17.38 per game & in the 2nd half it was 16.53 per game.
6. Of the nine 20 or more TO games, 4 happened in the 1st half of the year and 5 in the 2nd half.
7. The three best games for fewest turnovers (10,10,11) all happened in the 2nd half of the season. (Games 16, 18 and 19)
8. Nika has the most turnovers with 88, Aaliyah is next with 78, Lou is third at 54 and Aubrey 4th with 49. But, everyone has contributed to this negative stat.
9. The three current bench players (Ines, Ayanna and Amari) have a combined 66 turnovers.
10. Opponents have had 376 turnovers vs UConn's 441.

The Huskies need to bring the number of turnovers down. Turnovers are empty possessions. At least a bad shot has a chance to go in.
Thoughts?

Go Huskies..!!

Many of the turnovers, I imagine, can also be attributed to the bench . I have seen DeBerry ( more than once ), for example, give up an open shot from distance to " thread the needle" to a triple-teamed Dorka in the paint. A pass that 100% of the time will result in a turnover. Now I know the bench has logged very little court time, even as an aggregate, but they are terrible handling the rock. I would say that Patterson "gives away' 50% of the rounds she initially wins. She brings the ball down low after grabbing it, and loses it in the process. So, part of the explanation for a higher turnover ratio can be that this is one of the least capable benches we have ever had. The turnover stats would not be similar if Azzi and Caroline were available. Or, of course, if our dream team of Paige and Ice Brady were starters.

 

[housekeys]

First define what is a turnover? From Wikipedia (I am assuming it is somewhat accurate), also from NCAA statisticians manual:

In basketball, a turnover occurs when a team loses possession of the ball to the opposing team before a player takes a shot at their team's basket. This can result from a player getting the ball stolen, stepping out of bounds, having a pass intercepted, committing a violation (such as double dribble, traveling, shot clock violation, three-second violation or five-second violation), or committing an offensive foul (including personal, flagrant, and technical fouls).

Examining the various types of turnovers, it is mostly due to the players, but some are due to calls (violations), or no calls, by the officials. For me that is the biggest factor, not just for UConn but for teams in general. Sure, if a player throws it out bounds it is a turnover. However, if it is because they get hacked and no call is made, oh well, it is still a turnover. Sure, if a player steps out of bounds, it is a turnover. However, if it is because they get pushed/bumped and no call is made, oops, it is still a turnover. Offensive fouls, moving screens, you name it, are also turnovers from what I understand. All at the discretion of the officials. Geno has commented about the officiating (though not directly related to turnovers). He is right. UConn players are no saints and not perfect, but neither are the officials.

 

[Skeets]

Also, I believe a held ball with the possession arrow favoring the opposing team is also a turnover. (Please comment if this is incorrect.) This strikes me as being rather arbitrary. Consider a held ball with 1 second on the clock at the end of the third quarter with the possession arrow favoring the opponent. Should this be a turnover? I say no because it turns the possession arrow around for the start of the fourth quarter.

 

[freshler40]

I still think Nika is trying to force and throw the perfect pass at times. She needs to just focus on the safe pass and let the offensive movement create the openings. Of course that is a problem when nobody has the energy to move. Possessions are a key for us because we shoot so well from the field. Every other shot goes in when you shoot 50% combined from the field. For non 3s and only 2s, we shoot 56%. You aren't going to lose many games with that number unless you limit your own possessions which we are doing.

Not sure Nika is trying to make the perfect pass, just moving the action. A problem for her is she often stops before making a pass allowing the defender to close on her much as she does to the opponent. Our play dictates her handing the ball more so this may create more passes and a long shot clock possession thus rushed shots at the end of the clock. If she can pass up-court earlier rather than dribble our up-tempo game is much better IMO. Avoiding sideline traps late in the game is another must for this team. Hope they are working on it for tight games.

If there were a state of average time of 30 second possession or average number of passes per possession, I'd be curious to see where our team stands but the eye test show a lot of narrow well telegraphed passes by our team, not many of the no look passes offered in quicker possessions. Most of our offensive is well scripted and thus scouted easily. It would seem that with just five (5) players playing most minutes their individual patterns are also well known by opponents. A deeper productive bench would help solve this problem. We are not there yet.

 

[oldhusky]

There are several probable factors here. Nika is having a very good year, but she is a high reward high risk type of passer. Nothing to change there, it is what it is, if you want to get the creativity that produces so many easy shots for her teammates you have to live with a few more turnovers. Her assist to turnover ratio is still pretty good, so on balance her aggressive passing is a good thing and you live with it.

Also look at who is not playing, mostly Paige and Azzi who both have very low turnover rates relative to how much they handle the ball. Dorka even has a low turnover rate for a big and of course she missed 7 games herself. Then the multiple lineups and fatigue are factors too. In addition, I think turnovers happen more frequently when many of your best scoring options are missing. You then have other scoring options having to try to do more, and create shots as opposed to fitting into a smooth running offensive system.

All those things are factors IMO, but it could be somewhat better later this year if Azzi returns and next year looks to be much better. Nika will probably share some ballhandling duties with Paige and not have to be as aggressive with her passes with more offensive options. Just having Paige and Azzi consuming a major portion of the minutes help, and the other returning players have another year of experience.

One potential negative factor though is at C where we lose a low turnover player in Dorka, and probably replace her with a relatively inexperienced player next year. An experienced C in the portal might potentially address that.

 

[npignatjr]

There are two guards. When you have a bunch of forwards handling the ball, there will be turnovers.

2? Nika and who?

 

[npignatjr]

Nika is the only real ballhandler, has the ball in her hands A much larger percentage than any other player. A chart with time in players possession against number of turnovers would work in her favor. Rewatch or replay every turnovers it seems most bad passes happen because of some miscommunication between the 2 players in the read and react offense, the result of the lack of healthy players and reduced practice.