UConn stats...turnovers.. :(

[Skeets]

Also, I believe a held ball with the possession arrow favoring the opposing team is also a turnover. (Please comment if this is incorrect.) This strikes me as being rather arbitrary. Consider a held ball with 1 second on the clock at the end of the third quarter with the possession arrow favoring the opponent. Should this be a turnover? I say no because it turns the possession arrow around for the start of the fourth quarter.

 

[freshler40]

I still think Nika is trying to force and throw the perfect pass at times. She needs to just focus on the safe pass and let the offensive movement create the openings. Of course that is a problem when nobody has the energy to move. Possessions are a key for us because we shoot so well from the field. Every other shot goes in when you shoot 50% combined from the field. For non 3s and only 2s, we shoot 56%. You aren't going to lose many games with that number unless you limit your own possessions which we are doing.

Not sure Nika is trying to make the perfect pass, just moving the action. A problem for her is she often stops before making a pass allowing the defender to close on her much as she does to the opponent. Our play dictates her handing the ball more so this may create more passes and a long shot clock possession thus rushed shots at the end of the clock. If she can pass up-court earlier rather than dribble our up-tempo game is much better IMO. Avoiding sideline traps late in the game is another must for this team. Hope they are working on it for tight games.

If there were a state of average time of 30 second possession or average number of passes per possession, I'd be curious to see where our team stands but the eye test show a lot of narrow well telegraphed passes by our team, not many of the no look passes offered in quicker possessions. Most of our offensive is well scripted and thus scouted easily. It would seem that with just five (5) players playing most minutes their individual patterns are also well known by opponents. A deeper productive bench would help solve this problem. We are not there yet.

 

[oldhusky]

There are several probable factors here. Nika is having a very good year, but she is a high reward high risk type of passer. Nothing to change there, it is what it is, if you want to get the creativity that produces so many easy shots for her teammates you have to live with a few more turnovers. Her assist to turnover ratio is still pretty good, so on balance her aggressive passing is a good thing and you live with it.

Also look at who is not playing, mostly Paige and Azzi who both have very low turnover rates relative to how much they handle the ball. Dorka even has a low turnover rate for a big and of course she missed 7 games herself. Then the multiple lineups and fatigue are factors too. In addition, I think turnovers happen more frequently when many of your best scoring options are missing. You then have other scoring options having to try to do more, and create shots as opposed to fitting into a smooth running offensive system.

All those things are factors IMO, but it could be somewhat better later this year if Azzi returns and next year looks to be much better. Nika will probably share some ballhandling duties with Paige and not have to be as aggressive with her passes with more offensive options. Just having Paige and Azzi consuming a major portion of the minutes help, and the other returning players have another year of experience.

One potential negative factor though is at C where we lose a low turnover player in Dorka, and probably replace her with a relatively inexperienced player next year. An experienced C in the portal might potentially address that.

 

[npignatjr]

There are two guards. When you have a bunch of forwards handling the ball, there will be turnovers.

2? Nika and who?

 

[npignatjr]

Nika is the only real ballhandler, has the ball in her hands A much larger percentage than any other player. A chart with time in players possession against number of turnovers would work in her favor. Rewatch or replay every turnovers it seems most bad passes happen because of some miscommunication between the 2 players in the read and react offense, the result of the lack of healthy players and reduced practice.

 

[HuskyNan]

2? Nika and who?

Lou

 

[npignatjr]

Lou

She is a forward with a loose handle. Remember in the Princeton game when Nika got hurt and Maryland when she was out both sloppy

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

IMHO the turnovers are higher because of the different lineups that play a majority of the time now!
The extra minutes on each player also doesn't help but to me it's the constant switching!
It takes a while to get the players on the same wavelength and players going in and out of the lineups makes the timing of each pass off just enough to go wild!
Having Azzi and Caroline Ducharme back regularly will get them back on the same page, cutting turnovers down!

 

[ccwarrior]

Nika is the only real ballhandler, has the ball in her hands A much larger percentage than any other player. A chart with time in players possession against number of turnovers would work in her favor. Rewatch or replay every turnovers it seems most bad passes happen because of some miscommunication between the 2 players in the read and react offense, the result of the lack of healthy players and reduced practice.

But, a decent % of Nika's passes are just really poor choices. I know she has many assists, but I don't see her as the "natural" high-level PG that others do. I very much admire her other attributes, but her PG decision-making is painful at times (as Geno expresses in games).

 

[JRRRJ]

If you look at the per game stats, you can group the players into 3 arbitrary cohorts regarding turnovers.

1. Nika 3.7, Aaliyah 3.0, Caroline 2.7
2. Dorka 2.1, Lou 2.1, Aubrey 2.0
3. Azzi 1.6, Amari 1.3, Ines 1.2, Ayanna 0.9

I am not doing the per 40 analysis, or considering the possession time, or number of possessions, or passes.

I think the way forward is to examine the choices players are making. If they shoot plus rebound rather then make a difficult pass into a crowded paint area, they will have greater success. We typically take fewer shots than opposing teams, and we are usually low on offensive rebounds.

As a point of comparison against South Carolina, if you look at field goal attempts, free throw attempts, offensive boards, and turnovers,
SCAR
FGA: 66, FTA:22, OR:18, TO:13
UConn
FGA:57, FTA:17, OR:10, TO:17

If we track recent games, our offensive effort is lower than the averages shown above.

My point- the problem lies with what we are not doing. We have better shooters than most teams. We should be taking more shots. If players are guarded closely, take jump shots and draw fouls.

Others may have better ideas as this is just one point of view..

The per-40 analysis is already done for you for the first 4 players in each category. See here.

But I think your using the per-game figures is right for this analysis because the proclivity has to be weighted by how few of the possible minutes for the player generated their TOs.

 

[Cuango]

When a team is down Paige, Azzi, and Caroline, I would expect their number of turnovers to increase. I would expect to see their assist go down as well, but thank goodness we have Nika to keep our assist numbers in a good place. Also a good thing we good post players for her to pass to.

While the number maybe alarming, it is important to look at it in context.

While Nika obviously drives our assist numbers, Dorka has really stepped up in that area of the game this season. She has quietly become a very good passer.

 

[The deacon]

While Nika obviously drives our assist numbers, Dorka has really stepped up in that area of the game this season. She has quietly become a very good passer.

Dorka was a really good passer last year, too, but didn't have as many opportunities with Liv often holding down the high post.

 

[#12in21]

As Geno has said Nika's ability to be maximally effective depends on the four players with her to be so as well. Her focus and the strength of her game is to 'feed her teammates'. I looked at stats from the last 6 games (post Tennessee) and compared them with season averages. Arguably the only good game we played during that stretch was against South Carolina.

Over that stretch Nika played all except 3 minutes (237 out of 240 minutes). Over those six games her assists were 3.25/gm lower than her season average (currently at 8.08/gm), her turnovers were down .09/gm and her shooting percentage was 16% higher than her season average. Over that same period the team assists/game was 2.32 lower, turnovers down .42/gm and shooting percentage 12% lower than the season average.

Below is a chart comparing the last six games to season averages for the starters and team as a whole

I would argue that rather than errant/ill advised passes etc., being a current concern, our real problem is a big drop-off in our ability to finish in this last stretch of games. I have noticed a reluctance several times by various players to actually take the open outside shot but rather pass the ball unproductively. Also there have been a lot of instances where the ball has gone inside and the shot has been forced up, against double or triple teams resulting in a miss and the ball going the other way. The drop off of shooting % as a whole and in particular by Lou and Aaliyah is particularly glaring.

Nika's noticeable singularly improved FG % during this period, although a positive personal achievable, speaks more to her trying to find a way to positively impact the games when her main strength has been negated than an overall uptick in the teams performance. I would argue that she is still making a great many solid passes but they are not resulting in assists. Her turnovers are actually slightly reduced over this period. I would have to go back and rewatch games but I don't think she has been as actively involved in the ball movement after her initial pass off, which IMO, is not a positive sign. Perhaps all the minutes she is playing has reduced her movement due to not having the energy or, which I have noticed at least a couple times, her teammates have looked her off and tried to make the play themselves (which may be a sign of their own tiredness and resultant inability to constantly move). Either way I think her getting more touches benefits our historically good ball movement and the ability of teammates to move to find good positions to receive a pass from her or another teammate.

If we can increase ball movement, particularly by passing back out quickly by the posts if the easy finish isn't there and then passing to find the open player coupled with taking the shots from the outside when open rather than being reluctant to do so, then a lot of our early success should return. Particularly with the return of Caroline and hopefully imminent return of Azzi, we can get back to Nika's double digit assist games (which is a harbinger of good ball movement and higher % finishes), return to high shooting percentages by Lou and Aaliyah and continued solid play by Aubrey and Dorka.

 

[freshler40]

As Geno has said Nika's ability to be maximally effective depends on the four players with her to be so as well. Her focus and the strength of her game is to 'feed her teammates'. I looked at stats from the last 6 games (post Tennessee) and compared them with season averages. Arguably the only good game we played during that stretch was against South Carolina.

Over that stretch Nika played all except 3 minutes (237 out of 240 minutes). Over those six games her assists were 3.25/gm lower than her season average (currently at 8.08/gm), her turnovers were down .09/gm and her shooting percentage was 16% higher than her season average. Over that same period the team assists/game was 2.32 lower, turnovers down .42/gm and shooting percentage 12% lower than the season average.

Below is a chart comparing the last six games to season averages for the starters and team as a whole

I would argue that rather than errant/ill advised passes etc., being a current concern, our real problem is a big drop-off in our ability to finish in this last stretch of games. I have noticed a reluctance several times by various players to actually take the open outside shot but rather pass the ball unproductively. Also there have been a lot of instances where the ball has gone inside and the shot has been forced up, against double or triple teams resulting in a miss and the ball going the other way. The drop off of shooting % as a whole and in particular by Lou and Aaliyah is particularly glaring.

Nika's noticeable singularly improved FG % during this period, although a positive personal achievable, speaks more to her trying to find a way to positively impact the games when her main strength has been negated than an overall uptick in the teams performance. I would argue that she is still making a great many solid passes but they are not resulting in assists. Her turnovers are actually slightly reduced over this period. I would have to go back and rewatch games but I don't think she has been as actively involved in the ball movement after her initial pass off, which IMO, is not a positive sign. Perhaps all the minutes she is playing has reduced her movement due to not having the energy or, which I have noticed at least a couple times, her teammates have looked her off and tried to make the play themselves (which may be a sign of their own tiredness and resultant inability to constantly move). Either way I think her getting more touches benefits our historically good ball movement and the ability of teammates to move to find good positions to receive a pass from her or another teammate.

If we can increase ball movement, particularly by passing back out quickly by the posts if the easy finish isn't there and then passing to find the open player coupled with taking the shots from the outside when open rather than being reluctant to do so, then a lot of our early success should return. Particularly with the return of Caroline and hopefully imminent return of Azzi, we can get back to Nika's double digit assist games (which is a harbinger of good ball movement and higher % finishes), return to high shooting percentages by Lou and Aaliyah and continued solid play by Aubrey and Dorka.

Me thinks that we pass too much in the half court and dribble across half-court rather than pass up-court. The defense gets set. We run the 30 second clock down with so many passes that don't seem to be productive or looking to score. Our TV view may be to blame but some players receive the ball in a good spot but don't seem to want to shoot, just pass back. We need a good penetrating guard like ND. We do, on occasion do penetrate. CD did a lot in the 4th qtr of the recent C game to good effect. Nika can also but needs to develop a hesitation dribble and quick drive to the hoop. She is great doing this and we need to see it more against the high-quality teams in the season endng games. Increasingly, we are facing guards that can do this successfully. Our bigs need to clear out the defender to help the penetration.

You suggest our bigs, when covered inside, pass back out but to whom? Most of our outside players just stand around with little movement or desire to shoot. With CD back that seems to be changing. Our bigs have great inside moves, draw fouls or score. They are also in good position to grab an offensive rebound if needed. Our bigs are top talents and should shoot when at all possible, when getting the ball deep on an opponent. IMO

 

[npignatjr]

But, a decent % of Nika's passes are just really poor choices. I know she has many assists, but I don't see her as the "natural" high-level PG that others do. I very much admire her other attributes, but her PG decision-making is painful at times (as Geno expresses in games).

And yet Geno put her in alongside Paige as the point and stated the team was better then. Geno yells at the player who he knows can handle it often to impress upon the real offender what was wrong, something he has stated often over the years.

 

[vtcwbuff]

Last night UConn took only 47 shots. Not only are the turnovers empty possessions for UConn, they are extra scoring opportunities for their opponent. Last night Villanova scored 16 points off UConn turnovers. I think that's about 30% of their total score.