UConn-Providence 12/17 Postponed

[David 76]

I don't think Hurley wanted to play any conference game after 1 or 2 days practice. He pretty much said so.
We are all frustrated but there is a lot of anger just looking for a target.

 

[Rico444]

There is virtually no danger for anyone under 40 years old. Stick a mask on Hurley and they could coud be playing safely. Stop depriving the kids of opportunities because of the vulnerable population, keep the age groups separate.

Sticking a mask on Hurley won't protect him if half the team gets infected.

 

[NJHusky]

Gotta keep in mind the difference between isolation and quarantine. For people that have tested positive, the new CDC isolation is 10 days. The German and France periods are also for isolation. It's for infected people, Isolation is infected. But you do need to back date it to the day your symptoms onset, not from when you got your test results. As the article mentions, live shedding ends about 9 days after symptom onset.

But this is not the same as the quarantine period. For those who have had a close contact, you first need to wait for symptoms before starting that 10 day clock. 100% of people who had symptoms report them by day 14. That's where the scientific basis for 14 days came into play. This was a Wuhan COVID study (confirmed multiple times later), not on OG SARS. It's the quarantine period after a contact waiting to see if you get symptoms, not isolation period. Unfortunately a basketball team is one just one giant close contact.

Where the confusion comes in is that most people report symptoms around day 5 (median is day 4-5) and with those 10 days of isolation you coincidentally also end up at 14 days from contact. So you're advised to wait 14 days after contact to see if you get symptoms, and also most people in general are done shedding by 14 days after contact. Which is why it's a good number of days to use as a general public health advisory.

But yes, that 14 day quarantine window is conservative. 98% of people have developed symptoms by day 12. 90% by day 10. 75% by day 7, 50% by day 5. There is a public health number between days 5 and 12 from contact that would be more palatable while also preventing the majority of pre-symptomatic spread (which can be full blast 2 days before symptom onset). 14 days for quarantine is too conservative.

Correspondingly, false negative PCR tests are high until between days 5 and 8 for those who develop symptoms on day 5. But for those 50% who develop symptoms after day 5, the false negative rates are still extremely high until 1-3 days after symptom onset. So yes, it would be great to test people out of quarantine, but where do you set the threshold considering the accuracy of the tests? This is what just happened to UConn as the student athlete tested negative twice while it turns out they were infected until testing positive on what was likely the 3rd test later on day 6 or 7.

If 75% of people develop symptoms by day 7, that means by day 8 or 9 you should have a strong likelihood that a negative test will clear someone (or they've already developed symptoms). I would throw in a test before then as well for further confirmation. So my personal policy would be 2 negative tests for asymptomatic people both taken after day 7 from contact or totally asymptomatic through day 10 with no tests. And then the CDC recommended 10 days isolation from symptom onset for those with a positive case.

Curious where u r getting data from? My medical source (who has treated covid patients during the peak time) told me to isolate for 4 days after flying if I was concerned about contact. Then. Get tested. Said in almost all cases after 4 days the test will pick it up. Before symptoms. Why are You are focused on symptoms. Isn’t testing more accurate especially since many young folks are totally asymptotic and will never show symptoms

 

[auror]

Curious where u r getting data from? My medical source (who has treated covid patients during the peak time) told me to isolate for 4 days after flying if I was concerned about contact. Then. Get tested. Said in almost all cases after 4 days the test will pick it up. Before symptoms. Why are You are focused on symptoms. Isn’t testing more accurate especially since many young folks are totally asymptotic and will never show symptoms

Variation in False-Negative Rate of Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction–Based SARS-CoV-2 Tests by Time Since Exposure

Tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) based on reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are being used to “rule out” infection among high-risk persons, such as exposed inpatients and health ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Specifically for RT-PCR, but I believe this is the most common test administered.

So day 5 (I think that's what you mean with 4 days isolating and then get test), would still be a 40% chance of false negative. Of course, this does mean it catches most infections. But not a number I am comfortable with if I were trying to rule out someone having the virus and not what I would characterize as "almost all cases".

I am focused on symptoms because from these results and looking into it further, it seems the virus is only reasonably detectable about when symptoms appear, and not reliably before (although yes, we can catch some before, especially for later arriving symptoms). But we need reliability in order to rule something out.

In general, there are less totally asymptomatic cases then you'd expect. 80% of those who are asymptomatic at time of test do eventually develop symptoms (even if quite mild). There is a lot more presymtpomatic people than totally asymptomatic.

So waiting a couple extra days (but not a full 14) and doing a 2nd test is what I think the research shows would be most effective.

 

[Tenspro2002]

There is virtually no danger for anyone under 40 years old. Stick a mask on Hurley and they could coud be playing safely. Stop depriving the kids of opportunities because of the vulnerable population, keep the age groups separate.

There is a whole spectrum of outcomes between recovery and death, even for young people.

Just because young people aren't dying doesn't mean there's no risk to them.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

There is virtually no danger for anyone under 40 years old. Stick a mask on Hurley and they could coud be playing safely. Stop depriving the kids of opportunities because of the vulnerable population, keep the age groups separate.

Unnecessarily overburdensome public health measures based in fear and seeking perfection are still nowhere near as bad as this garbage take.

 

[gtcam]

Unnecessarily overburdensome public health measures based in fear and seeking perfection are still nowhere near as bad as this garbage take.

We all know your opinion on the Covid 19
To each their own

 

[gtcam]

I don't think Hurley wanted to play any conference game after 1 or 2 days practice. He pretty much said so.
We are all frustrated but there is a lot of anger just looking for a target.

and there is a possible scenario
what if there was no Covid and something in the scheduling called for a game after 1 or 2 days practice?

 

[HuskyHawk]

So, anybody have any idea when our next game is?

 

[auror]

So, anybody have any idea when our next game is?

Next Sunday against Creighton 12/20. The 14 day period is 12/6-12/19.

 

[glastonbury50]

Next Sunday against Creighton 12/20. The 14 day period is 12/6-12/19.

That's incorrect. Quarantine period ended today. We are back at practice today.

 

[tcf15]

That's incorrect, stop making things up. Quarantine period ended today. We are back at practice today.

Nope, still technically in quarantine.

 

[huskymedic]

That's incorrect. Quarantine period ended today. We are back at practice today.

 

[glastonbury50]

Which is correct lol

 

[HuskyHawk]

Next Sunday against Creighton 12/20. The 14 day period is 12/6-12/19.

Unless I land in quarantine I’ll be in DC, probably going to miss it. This blows.

 

[David 76]

and there is a possible scenario
what if there was no Covid and something in the scheduling called for a game after 1 or 2 days practice?

Would not happen under normal circumstances and if it did, he would not like it.