UConn projected to win less games than Central

[sammydabiz]

I've realized that part of my angst, is I continually have unrealistic expectations for this team.

Predicting anything over 20 wins this season and you will find yourself in the same boat as myself.
My new hope is to not have a losing season like last year.

My god, how far has this program fallen? Sad really

 

[PAHusky]

Im arguing that we have a young coach and a young team that deserve our support and that things arent as bad as haters like you and Niels make them. Im arguing that coaches that you use as a measuring stick against Ollie are given time to build their programs.

Its really not that hard to understand for people who arent obtuse disingenuous hedgers.

Im arguing that at minumum Ollie deserves the full season before calling for his head. I wouldnt and wont call anybody out for it at the end of the year if it is as bad as you think it will be.

Millenial here, putting down my avocado toast long enough to reply sans "obtuse disingenuous hedgers". The young coach moniker is tired. KO has had four or so seasons now, it's his team and he's in full control. Part of our youth is KO's recruiting deficiencies and the transfers, which may or may not be at least partially his fault. The other coaches are given time to build their programs because, spoiler alert, they didn't all inherit a fully built program like KO did. Calhoun's last year was a total mess, but the framework was there for KO to step in. He did so incredibly well the first season, and then obviously won the natty. Since then? It's been his recruits, his offensive gameplan, his staff, his roster turnover.

I've only seen one or two posters actually calling for KO to be fired midseason. It's a ludicrous thought. But that doesn't mean that KO should be immune from criticism on a message board after every increasingly sub-par performance. Not sure why you the KO pollyannas keep trying to carve out a safe space for him on the boneyard.

For ripping on the millenials a lot for it some of your are special snowflakes when it comes to KO criticism.

 

[Stainmaster]

I've only seen one or two posters actually calling for KO to be fired midseason.

You quite clearly have not been reading this site enough.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

If we have a rain tomorrow does that mean everyday the rest of the year will be rain?

I mean it rained today and if it rains tomorrow the evidence right now points to it raining everyday. Or are there other factors and unknowns that can/ will happen that will change/affect the outcome.

The team is young and still leaning/ growing into their roles. The defense has never been this bad under Ollie and it will almost definitely get better. The shooting numbers should also trend upwards. The team has no bad losses (Arkansas is not a bad loss in the committees eyes its a L) and they have beaten the teams they were supposed to beat. End of the day a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

Until the sample size of games gets larger and against better competition come January there will be a better assessment and barometer of what to expect out of this UConn team.

I believe they can get to the tourney and win 20 games this year if they grow as I expect. I also believe regardless of results (to a certain extent) Ollie will not be fired this year and will have next year also to prove what he can do with this UConn team and program. You don't bring in Chillious, just to fire Ollie after thus year and lose a potent recruiter with the connections Chill has, just to have him leave after 1 year also and fall further behind the 8 ball because they will lose everyone worthwhile on the team and their current committed players along with burning bridges of future recruits who they have a shot at. I firmly believe in 3 years, if Ollie is given that time frame, that UConn will be back to a top 25 team and relevant nationally again

Are really trying to compare college basketball performance with the weather?

if it rains for 3 weeks in a row, I think its a lot more logical to assume it will rain tomorrow than to assume it will be sunny and the leaves will change just because I want them to.

Nobody can predict the future. We have to use whatever data we have at the time to try to infer what we think will happen.

The sample size is a lot bigger than a few games; more like 100+. But I agree with everything you said in the last paragraph.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

Actually I’m driving to NYC right now and refuse to type a book to refute a dope.

Hard to write a book when you have nothing to say.

"We might be good by the end of the year" "But I really have no clue and nothing to base this on".

-The End

Great book August.

 

[NielsisGood]

You quite clearly have not been reading this site enough.

There really only have been a few, and every time I've seen the statement it's been immediately during/after one of the last few games.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

I've realized that part of my angst, is I continually have unrealistic expectations for this team.

Predicting anything over 20 wins this season and you will find yourself in the same boat as myself.
My new hope is to not have a losing season like last year.

My god, how far has this program fallen? Sad really

This is literally my entire argument. And it is sad. Whats even more sad is we are barely meeting the exceedingly low expectations; ie beating Columbia.

That is what expectations have gotten to for our program. We used to expect a tourney run every year, maybe an elite 8 or final 4. Now we would all be happy just to finish 3rd in the American and lose in the 1st round of the dance.

Think about that for a second. I think it is extremely relevant to the evaluation of our current HC a.

 

[August_West]

Hard to write a book when you have nothing to say.

"we might be good by the end of the year" "But I really have no clue and no reason at all to think this based on current and previous results".

-The End

Great work August. NYT bestseller for sure.

I’ve written about what I like about this team and where I think it’s improved and where I think we are short on here already. I don’t have patience or inclination typing it out again for the clueless. You going to the game tonight? I’ll re explain it over a beer.

 

[NielsisGood]

I’ve written about what I like about this team and where I think it’s improved and where I think we are short on here already. I don’t have patience or inclination typing it out again for the clueless. You going to the game tonight? I’ll re explain it over a beer.

Incrementally better than last year, gotta give the young coach and his young team more time, Ollie will turn it around (even though we don't need any turning around).



Inspiring stuff really.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I think we'll win win or two of these, but I think we'll be hard-pressed to win all 4. We'll probably lose 2 or 3 others that you have as wins and 1 or 2 you have as losses we'll win, putting us in the 18-21 win range and squarely on tournament bubble.

Maybe. But my prediction has us only winning two against the top three league teams. WSU, UC, SMU. I don't think that's overly optimistic. I picked home wins, but it could be otherwise.

 

[ctchamps]

You are ripping on people who are reacting to actual results that are happening.

BUT at the same time your entire position is based on something you admit to not knowing (and have no evidence to support other than hope/faith).

So in other words, ignore what is happening now in reality, but act as if an unknown future outcome will/might be positive?

That is your argument?

Where he's coming from is the situation is fixed for this season. Therefore what's the value of making the same complaints after every bad play or bad game. He understands the reasons for the complaints, but what value do they serve?

The only positive thing fans can do given circumstances any year is to support the team for the year. Period. It's a quitters personality to do otherwise. At the end of the season the AD will make a decision. If he needs to see us not showing up to games to make that decision he's not a good AD.

I'm all for protesting and boycotting. But not for my teams. Any boycotting of the team actually makes the decision to terminate a contract more difficult because the monies are reduced to buy out contracts.

Whether anyone wants KO to stay or go (or any other coach for that matter) they make their feelings known but provide the AD with the monies to properly handle the situation.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I use actual arguments to do so and its based on what is happening in real life. I'm calling you out for not having one (while you call people out for not having one).

Glad you at least admitted it.

What is it that is happening now? We have a team that is 6-2, with a loss to the #3 team, in which it was competitive for a half. They also lost a bad game to a decent Arkansas team that is very up and down (beat OU, lost to Houston).

To me, that is what is happening. At this point last year, let us see where we were.

1. We lost to two cupcakes
2. We lost two of our 3 best players, plus Diarra was ruled out.
3. We barely beat a weak LMU team
4. We lost to OSU and Oregon in Maui
5. We beat BU 51-49 (this year we won 85-66, with walk ons finishing)
6. Our two wins over D1 teams going into the Syracuse game were by a total of 5 points.

So we had a skeleton roster with only three guards, one of whom was a freshman. Our shooting guard had to play the wing because our freshman wing couldn't hit the ocean from a boat, and Larrier was gone. Then Jalen hurt his ankle against Houston.

That team took Auburn to OT. Beat Cuse. Nearly beat Ohio State on the road, and managed to win 16 games, going .500 in conference. It won two games in the league tournament. It did that with 8 scholarship players, three of which were freshmen, and one of which was Enoch. Diarra and Carlton already look better than Enoch or Durham did.

You have to be willfully blind or monumentally stupid to think that this team is in worse shape than that team. Or to predict that the win total will be similar to 2016-17. We are already +4 on last year, and the roster is in better shape. I'm sure I'll be labeled an Ollie apologist now, even though I've been loudly critical of him.

 

[UConnRock]

W Colgate Gampel Pavilion 11/10 7 p.m. SNY
W Stony Brook XL Center 11/14 7 p.m. SNY
W Boston University XL Center 11/19 6 p.m. SNY
W Oregon Portland, OR 11/23 9 p.m. ESPN U
L Michigan State/DePaul Portland, OR 11/24 9:30 p.m./12 a.m. TBD
L PK80 Day 3 Portland, OR 11/25 TBD TBD
W Columbia Gampel Pavilion 11/29 7 p.m. SNY
W Monmouth XL Center 12/2 4 p.m. SNY

Syracuse New York, NY 12/5 9 p.m. ESPN
W Coppin State Gampel Pavilion 12/9 TBA ESPN 2/ESPN U
L Arizona Tuscon, AZ 12/21 TBA TBD
Auburn Auburn, AL 12/23 2:30 p.m. ESPN 2
L Wichita State XL Center 12/30 12 p.m. CBS
Tulsa Tulsa, OK 1/3 7 p.m. ESPNews
W East Carolina XL Center 1/6 12 p.m. ESPNews
W UCF Gampel Pavilion 1/10 7 p.m. CBS Sports
W Tulane New Orleans, LA 1/13 1 p.m. ESPNews
Memphis Memphis, TN 1/16 9 p.m. CBS Sports
L Villanova XL Center 1/20 12 p.m. CBS
SMU Gampel Pavilion 1/25 7 p.m. CBS Sports
Temple Philadelphia, PA 1/28 8 p.m. ESPN 2
UCF Orlando, FL 1/31 9 p.m. CBS Sports
L Cincinnati Gampel Pavilion 2/3 12 p.m. ESPN/ESPN 2
W USF Gampel Pavilion 2/7 7 p.m. ESPN U
L Wichita State Wichita, KS 2/10 TBA TBA
W Tulsa XL Center 2/15 7 p.m. ESPN U
W East Carolina Greenville, NC 2/18 3 p.m. ESPNews
L Cincinnati Highland Heights, KY 2/22 7 p.m. ESPN/ESPN 2
W Memphis Gampel Pavilion 2/25 2 p.m./4 p.m. ESPN/ESPN U
W Temple Gampel Pavilion 2/28 7 p.m. CBS Sports
Houston Houston, TX 3/4 4 p.m. CBS Sports

The only away wins that I have as solid UConn wins are ECU, and Tulane. I have all ranked teams as losses (2 WSU, 2 Cincy, Nova). My chart has 15 Wins - 8 losses and 8 toss ups. 5-3 in the toss ups and UConn is 20-11 going into the AAC tournament.

 

[August_West]

Incrementally better than last year, gotta give the young coach and his young team more time, Ollie will turn it around (even though we don't need any turning around).



Inspiring stuff really.

Sweet melt !

Unhinged.




Going to game tonight? I'll buy you a beer and you can lick your wounds

 

[NielsisGood]

Sweet melt !

Unhinged.




Going to game tonight? I'll buy you a beer and you can lick your wounds

Help me out here, what kind of nonsense are you on about now?

 

[NielsisGood]

What is it that is happening now? We have a team that is 6-2, with a loss to the #3 team, in which it was competitive for a half. They also lost a bad game to a decent Arkansas team that is very up and down (beat OU, lost to Houston).

To me, that is what is happening. At this point last year, let us see where we were.

1. We lost to two cupcakes
2. We lost two of our 3 best players, plus Diarra was ruled out.
3. We barely beat a weak LMU team
4. We lost to OSU and Oregon in Maui
5. We beat BU 51-49 (this year we won 85-66, with walk ons finishing)
6. Our two wins over D1 teams going into the Syracuse game were by a total of 5 points.

So we had a skeleton roster with only three guards, one of whom was a freshman. Our shooting guard had to play the wing because our freshman wing couldn't hit the ocean from a boat, and Larrier was gone. Then Jalen hurt his ankle against Houston.

That team took Auburn to OT. Beat Cuse. Nearly beat Ohio State on the road, and managed to win 16 games, going .500 in conference. It won two games in the league tournament. It did that with 8 scholarship players, three of which were freshmen, and one of which was Enoch. Diarra and Carlton already look better than Enoch or Durham did.

You have to be willfully blind or monumentally stupid to think that this team is in worse shape than that team. Or to predict that the win total will be similar to 2016-17. We are already +4 on last year, and the roster is in better shape. I'm sure I'll be labeled an Ollie apologist now, even though I've been loudly critical of him.

What kind of righteous stand do you think you're taking by comparing this year's team to last year?

 

[HuskyHawk]

What kind of righteous stand do you think you're taking by comparing this year's team to last year?

What other comparison can possibly be valid when looking at progress?

 

[NielsisGood]

What other comparison can possibly be valid when looking at progress?

So if the Browns go 0-16 this year and then 1-15 next year people are gonna talk about progress? Nobody that is dissatisfied with the job Ollie has done are basing things solely off of last year.

 

[LIuconn]

what about SOS?

 

[Jerry1714]

3 seasons + 8 games* figured that would be your only takeaway there.

PC is not having a better year than us this year.

Their best win is BC (#98) who is worse than Oregon (#55). They lost to the two best teams they played (#23 and #48), who are overall worse than the two best teams we played (#3 and #39).

The simpletons on this board have meltdowns and say they are done with the program until Ollie is fired because we are losing at half to Columbia but PC beat Rider by 4 (ranked 182) and Belmont by 1 (ranked 122). So they beat 2 teams ranked an average of 152 by a combined 5 points, we beat Mommouth and Columbia, ranked an average of 165 by 7 points.

Sorry to use actual facts and analysis to rain on your parade and disprove your narrative.

Also in 2016 PC lost in the same round as UConn but UConn won a conference tournament title, so again another year where Cooley did not outperform Ollie. Again, sorry about the facts man.

 

[RJScootin]

Millenial here, putting down my avocado toast long enough to reply sans "obtuse disingenuous hedgers". The young coach moniker is tired. KO has had four or so seasons now, it's his team and he's in full control. Part of our youth is KO's recruiting deficiencies and the transfers, which may or may not be at least partially his fault. The other coaches are given time to build their programs because, spoiler alert, they didn't all inherit a fully built program like KO did. Calhoun's last year was a total mess, but the framework was there for KO to step in. He did so incredibly well the first season, and then obviously won the natty. Since then? It's been his recruits, his offensive gameplan, his staff, his roster turnover.

I've only seen one or two posters actually calling for KO to be fired midseason. It's a ludicrous thought. But that doesn't mean that KO should be immune from criticism on a message board after every increasingly sub-par performance. Not sure why you the KO pollyannas keep trying to carve out a safe space for him on the boneyard.

For ripping on the millenials a lot for it some of your are special snowflakes when it comes to KO criticism.

Great post!!! Now get back to that avocado toast you deserve it.

 

[RJScootin]

If you think we lose to Memphis twice and USF, I don't even know what to tell you man. Find a new sport to watch.

UConn has lost enough fans these last few years, please don't push any additional away.

 

[CCSUBlue92]

I like CCSU's team a lot this year. Happy for Donyell and his staff.

Realistically, CCSU will likely finish in the middle of the pack in the NEC this year. But we've certainly turned the corner. Already have wins over East Carolina, Cleveland St, Brown, Coppin St., North Carolina A&T, and ALMOST beating Rutgers. Still one year away from being really good...like good enough to win the conference and knock somebody off in the NCAAs.

 

[Towney007]

I mean from what i've read - and what I agree with - is that it's the same thing over an over again - the same problems over and over again. And the clock's just kinda ticking. I don't think KO is a bad dude. I've heard some hearsay stuff behind the scenes - don't know what truth there is to it; but my issue at the end of the day is on the court, and what's been on the court has been the same kinds of players doing the same things wrong repeatedly. For multiple seasons.

And I also think it's just unfair to look at the situation in a total vacuum. Because you have this weird perfect storm where the program is in this rut, but also stuck in the conference realignment cement mixer and you have a team not playing well and stuck against opponents that aren't really BAD per se - but clearly not up to the level of competition we saw in the Big East - but more importantly just not teams we have any real rivalries or history with outside of say... maybe Cincinnati. So it's really just a lot of things coming together at the same time where you have declining revenues that are exacerbated by all of the above that have to put anyone with a pulse on edge a bit.

And truth be told, while I don't want to BE in the American Conference, I'm not bummed that we're IN it right now. I think people are way over the top in criticizing the programs in it. It's been pretty good and teams are absolutely improving. Houston is getting better. SMU got better quickly and seems to be maintaining. Wichita State is a great add for hoops and Cincinnati has been strong. Memphis has been a little all over the place and Tulsa and Temple - while not setting the world on fire, have maintained their status as more or less steady eddies. UCF, USF and Tulane are clearly making the effort even though no one's really had the progress they've wanted them to have on the hoops front at least... on the football front - where the dough is - it's impossible to call UCF and USF bad partners in that regard... and to boot - we haven't carried our weight.

So it's hard for me to sit back and take this kind of elitist attitude that we're too good for the conference and that the conference is ruining US. It's not helping, but everyone in it is doing their best and doing what they need to. We're not. That's on us.

When looking at Ollie - what concerns me is that he has clearly demonstrated an ability to get top talent recruitment wise, but he hasn't been able to keep it, develop it and find the KIND of talent that can succeed in his system. That's really what it comes down to at the end of the day. I don't see a willingness to coach a team where it's at or to what it actually is. He keeps trying to make circles squares. That lack of adaptability scares me. But it also exacerbates some of the 'attitude' issues people constantly complain about. Truth be told - it's hard to keep a positive attitude and max effort when the situation you're in clearly isn't helpful to you. It's hard for me to fault the kids for that.

What I also don't like about the system so to speak - is that it's kind of faulty and exclusionary to a point. If you're an elite big - why come to UConn? If everything is going to be based off of guard creativity and penetration and swing-ish 2/3/4's that can dribble and create - where do you really fall in that equation? People complain about our ability to develop bigs, but they're not a part of the sauce in this system so to speak - so the type of talent we're going to attract in that regard is going to be what it is.

And what the kicker is for me - and I really DO believe this with every fiber of my being - is that I feel like Ollie's one of those guys who is that anomaly that could be a sage in an NBA setting - and just never get one foot in front of the other as a college coach. Get some self motivated, uniquely talented types like you find in the NBA - and you'll have a lot of succes. Sometimes its the coaches that kind of get out of the way and let players create are the best in the modern pro game. Not sure it's a fit for college as the kids just aren't developed enough or have IQ's on the court that can play to that as it's so antithetical to what we see in AAU, etc.

And one behind the scenes knock I hear a lot about Kevin is that he's more interested in being 'one of the boys' so to speak rather than a coach - and while that's not necessarily a fault - it's that you can't really do that at the college level. One guy I talked to explained it to me that Kevin was more like a grizzled NBA vet taking young players under his wing as opposed to being Dad, basically. And I could see that being something. Again - I'm not sure he's a bad coach, he just might be a really bad fit for this level, that's all.

I'm all for giving him the season. He earned that right winning a national title, he's been the tournament twice, probably would have been three times had we not been banned. He's been good enough to warrant the season to me. But if this season turns into anything like last year - it's probably time to make a change. That's where i'm at. I'm in the 'he's out as of now, but let's see what he can do with the season and I can totally reconsider that position.'...

 

[Mr. French]

There’s no way we only win 7.6 more games.

I agree! I mean, when's the last time a team even won .6 of a game?!?! What a ludicrous prediction.