Uconn Notre Dame preview

[doggydaddy]

Nan can't put this in the blog until tonight so I'm posting it here.

UConn vs Notre Dame
NCAA Semi-Final
Tuesday 8:30 Nashville, Tennessee
TV - ESPN
Records UConn 39-0, Notre Dame 37-0

NCAA results to date

Uconn 87 Prairie View A&M 44
Uconn 91 Saint Josephs 52
Uconn 70 BYU 51
Uconn Texas 79 A&M 54
Uconn 75 Stanford 56

Notre Dame 93 Robert Morris 42
Notre Dame 84 Arizona State 67
Notre Dame 89 Oklahoma State 72
Notre Dame 88 Baylor 69
Notre Dame 87 Maryland 61

Overview
Uconn and Notre Dame are meeting for the 42nd time with the series in favor of Uconn 30-11. Uconn is 9-4 at Notre Dame, 18-4 at home and 3-3 in neutral sites.


UConn Starting Lineup
14 G Bria Hartley SR 5'9” 31.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.4 apg
5 G Moriah Jefferson SO 5'7” 29.5 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.8 apg
30 F/C Breana Stewart SO 6'4” 30.3 mpg, 19.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 3.0 apg
23 F Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis JR 6' 28.8 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.6 apg
31 C Stefanie Dolson SR 6'5” 32.2 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.3 apg
UConn Bench
41 C/F Kia Stokes JR 6'3” 18.7 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 0.8 apg
13 G Briana Banks JR 5'9” 14.6 mpg, 3.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.3 apg
12 G Sanyia Chong FR 5'9” 17.5 mpg, 4.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.6 apg


Notre Dame Starting Lineup
32 G Jewel Loyd SO 5'10” 29.7 mpg, 18.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.1 apg
21 G Kayla McBride SR 5'11” 29.2 mpg, 17.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.9 apg
12 C Taya Reimer FR 6'3” 19.0 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.6 apg
15 G Lindsay Allen FR 5'7” 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.9 apg
44 F Ariel Braker SR 6'1” 16.9 mpg, 4.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg
Notre Dame Bench
23 G Michaela Mabrey SO 5'10” 19.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.2 apg
22 G Madison Cable JR 5'11” 14.5 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.0 apg
34 F Markisha Wright JR 6'2” 8.9 mpg, 2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 0.4 apg

Game Analysis

We've been waiting for this game almost all season. I think the results of the season to date have clearly shown how much better than everyone else both Uconn and ND are. Now it's time to see who is the best of the best.

Against Maryland, with Achonwa out, it was interesting to see how their post players stepped up. I'm sure that even ND fans were surprised to see Wright, the 6'2” junior forward, who played only 10 minutes a game averaging 2 points 2 rebounds come in against Maryland and be so effective. She had maybe the game of her life with 12 points and 9 rebounds. The thing with games of your like when you are a role player that doesn't see a lot of time is that rarely do those result carry to the next game. Reimer played 30 minutes, something she has to do in place of Achonwa in the starting lineup. She had her freshman moments, but played very well, and with 4 assists, she was Achonwa-like. I think the emotions of their leader being hurt carried these players to heights not seen before for them. Cable play some excellent minutes as well.
Their guard play was amazing as always. I would put Loyd and McBride up there with any other two guards/wings in the country. So much talent between the two of them. Loyd is a freak in a good way. Her silky smooth jumper and her incredible leaping ability make her a match-up nightmare. McBride was just devastating again Maryland. She basically did what she wanted. Pull up jumpers, step back 3's, hard drives to the basket...Maryland had no answers for her. Allen did what she always does, facilitates without mistakes. 5 assists and no turnovers. Mabrey contributed very little. Her shot wasn't falling and she was scoreless with no assists and 2 TO's.
ND's defense in this game was terrific. They had a good plan in covering Thomas and of course Brenda had no clue on how to adjust to it. One of the worst games Maryland play this season, but you can't deny credit to ND's defense. It's hard to believe that they would out rebound Maryland 50-21 and 19-4 in offensive rebounds. Did Maryland play their JV on the boards? Unbelievable effort on ND's part.

Uconn had its typical slow start against Stanford, as they have in most games in the tourney. I'm sure Geno is scratching his head on this one. A slow start against ND will not be as easy to over as it was against Stanford. When it was 22-16 in favor of Stanford with 5:39 left in the half, I'm sure all Uconn fans were waiting for the “run”. And Connecticut didn't disappoint. In the last 5 minutes of the half, a 6 point deficit turned into a 4 point lead. Great defense and clutch shooting had every fan breathing a little easier. In the first 5 minutes of the second half, Uconn was just as dominating, turning that 4 point lead into a 17 point lead. Between the 1st half ending run and the 2nd half beginning run, Uconn outscored Stanford by a 24-5 margin and the game was essentially over.
Once against, Uconn played only 6 players but all contributed as always with Stokes the only player under 10 points (with 9) as all 5 starters had double digits. Geno was able to adjust by putting in Stokes and Stanford had no answer to the 3 bigs on the court at the same time.
Uconn's guard/wing play was solid if not spectacular. Hartley hit one really clutch three pointer in the first run and Jefferson was all over the court, driving the Stanford team crazy with her defense. KML didn't get a lot of looks from the perimeter but hit some nice elbow jumpers.
Defensively, Uconn was outstanding. Not unexpected from the best defensive team in the country. 10 steals (5 from Jefferson) really spurred the team on and turned defense into offense.
Stanford never backed down (unlike Maryland) and Uconn showed why they are the #1 team in the country.
So, how does this all play into the upcoming championship match-up? I'm sure others have a different opinion on who will guard who, but I think that when both teams are playing man-to-man, which is most of the time, the match-ups are like this:

Jefferson vs Allen. This is a very interesting match-up Both have excellent speed and ball handling ability. I believe Jefferson has the edge in both at this time. Allen has been pretty darn consistent for a freshman point guard. She takes care of the ball and doesn't make a lot of mistakes. But again, she has never faced a defensive player as good as Jefferson. How Allen handles this pressure will go a long way in how ND performs in this game. They don't need her to score, just to take care of the ball. Jefferson will also put pressure on Allen when Jefferson has the ball. Can Allen keep Jefferson out of the lane? Without fouling? Under the glaring lights of the championship game? I think Uconn has a clear advantage here.

Hartley vs Loyd. Wow.....are there two better shooting guards in the country (sorry Baylor fans) than these two? Hartley brings so much experience along with her obvious skills. She just seems to know what Uconn needs and when they need it. Her shooting, along with everyone else on the team is a little off, but she hits the shots when Uconn needs them most. Her on the ball defense is terrific. And she will need all of her experience and defense skills to play against what I think is the best offensive guard in the country. Her athleticism is off the charts. What other guard receives alley-oop passes? Her pull up jumper is unstoppable. She plays solid defense, but not the lock down defense that will stop Hartley from making her offensive moves. It's hard to give any team the advantage in this match-up.

KML vs McBride. Are there two more dynamic scorers from the wing position? Very different skill-set, but both are impossible to stop when they are on their games. McBride can score from anywhere and in so many ways, from her impossible to stop step back jumper (out to 3 point range) to her hard drives to the basket. She also had good but not great 3 point range. Similar to Dolson, but not quite as extreme, she has tone her body into WNBA ready. She is strong and still quick. KML is still the sweetest shooter in the country. Over some of this tournament, she has been as good as ever. Her range is limitless and now she is working hard on rebounding and getting into the lane. It makes her even more dangerous. When these two superstars cover each other, I have to give a slight edge to McBride, but the margin here is paper thin.

Stewart vs Braker. Ahuge advantage here for Uconn. I'm not sure what is up with Braker. She played only 11 minutes in the Maryland game. Was it match-ups? The fact that Wright was so effective? In any event, even with Stewart not playing like the tourney MVP, Braker will struggle to cover her. All Stewart has to do is keep Braker off the boards. Stewart has struggles with her offensive game, but I certainly can see her breaking out when she sees the green and golf of ND.

Dolson vs Reimer. Ahhhh....what could have been the best match-up of the game now may turn into how quickly can Dolson get the freshman Reimer into foul trouble. Reimer has been assessed 15 fouls in 68 minutes in the last 4 tourney games. That is almost 1 foul every 4 minutes on the court. And she hasn't played anyone with the post game of Dolson. Of course, the question is always can Uconn get the ball to Dolson on the block. Reimer has a decent post game, utilizing her strong hand (lefty) to score with put-backs. But in this game she should struggle with Dolson's size and slick post moves with either hand.
Benches - Stokes vs Mabrey, Cable, Wright. Well in numbers you have to give it to ND. McGraw has declared her bench the best in the country and they certainly did a great job against Maryland. Wright had the game of her life, Cable was effective. Now does anyone think that Wright can duplicate her stats against Uconn? Very doubtful. I do expect Mabrey to be more effective in the Uconn game than she was against Maryland. Connecticut has occasionally let a player sneak open for a 3 and Mabrey won't hesitate to shoot if that happens with her. Stokes has been great in the tourney so far. She has earned her spot as the only player off the bench. Her defense and rebounding have continued to shine and against Stanford she show what she can do when she is more offensive minded.
So, where does that leave us? I tend to agree with Lawson in her assessment. It's all about match-ups and while ND matches up well with Uconn in the guard and wing position with maybe a slight advantage, the front lines are not in the same world. Dolson, Stewart and Stokes vs Reimer, Braker, Wright and maybe Cable? If Uconn can get the ball in the post, it could be real difficult for the ND defenders to stop Uconn with fouling. And if the bigs on ND get in foul trouble, game over.
Of course Loyd and McBride are good enough to score 25 each in this game. When they are on, it doesn't matter who is guarding them. But they will still need enough from the other players to win this game.
Final prediction
A universe in which there exists such a thing as an irresistible force is, by definition, a universe which cannot also contain an immovable object. And a universe which contains an immovable object cannot, by definition, also contain an irresistible force. So the question is essentially meaningless: either the force is irresistible or the object is immovable, but not both.
So, what does this mean in regards to this game? Well, so far this season, Notre Dame's offense is the irresistible force and Uconn's defense is immoveable object. But during this game, only one of them can exist. I'm a big proponent of the theory “defense wins championships”. And I totally agree with Geno, who has said recently “defense wins games, offense gives you the final margin”.
I would suggest we use last years scores between these two teams to give us an idea if ND can score the 88.2 they have averaged in the tourney. ND scored 73, 64 (in regulation), 61 and 65. Uconn is even a better defensive team than last year. Is ND better offensively than last year? Maybe when Achonwa was there, but not now.
ND has played great defense in spurts. They don't seem to be able to play great defense for 40 minutes. I think this is where they really miss Diggins. And now without Achonwa, they are weaker than they were for most of this season both offensively and defensively . In the tourney, not including the 1 vs 16
game ND has allowed 67 ppg. I don't think they have the defense to stop Uconn from scoring over 70 points in this game.
I have to give credit to ND for their great emotional effort against Maryland. But Uconn is a different situation. The match-ups are not good for ND and Uconn has played great defense this tourney.
I'm going with Uconn to win number nine, and to win by 8-12 points.

 

[Icebear]

Sounds about right.

 

[Sonny44]

Overview numbers are reversed.

 

[doggydaddy]

Overview numbers are reversed.

The Jewish holiday Passover is coming up soon, so I wrote it right to left.

 

[pap49cba]

Great job DD. I agree with your conclusion. Key will be can UConn hold ND <70 pts.? If their score at the half is 35-40 UConn could have a problem. Fouls and rebounding will be big factors. UConn cannot let them control the boards the way MD did.

 

[doggydaddy]

Great job DD. I agree with your conclusion. Key will be can UConn hold ND <70 pts.? If their score at the half is 35-40 UConn could have a problem. Fouls and rebounding will be big factors. UConn cannot let them control the boards the way MD did.

Yeah, I just can't see ND grabbing 50 rebounds and 19 offensive rebounds.

 

[GoUconn7961]

MD completely gave up, and Frese never made adjustments. I just don't see Geno coaching that badly; being unprepared, or the UCONNplayers ever giving up.

 

[huskeynut]

DD - I believe you nailed it.

I would only add that we have 5 scorers who average double figures and ND has two. ND cannot double team on defense. They have to play it straight up. And any of ours can go off big time on any night. Big advantage UConn.

 

[Jackalope]

DD - you do have the game listed for Sunday in your first post.

FWIW here are some additional thoughts.

I think ND's game plan is to send McBride and Loyd into the paint as early and as often as they can in order to draw some early fouls against the UCONN formidable front line. Likewise, there will be a lot of ND Flopping in the hope of getting some early bench time for the UCONN starters. Hopefully the refs will let them play and not go for the bait.

On the other hand, I think Geno will try to leverage Dolson and Stewart, looking to get them touches in the paint and exploit the post mismatches.

If the refs call the game close, we might be in trouble and the game could be close. If the refs let them play, we win by 20.

 

[HoopsFan21]

I'm tossing the ND-Maryland as being indicative of ND's skill. Maryland from the end of the first half on pretty much rolled over and played dead. Yeah, McBride can hit lots of shots when the other team has more or less given up. I say go with the big line up and let Loyd and McBride run into a wall turning the ball over or fouling.

 

[HoopsFan21]

DD - I believe you nailed it.

I would only add that we have 5 scorers who average double figures and ND has two. ND cannot double team on defense. They have to play it straight up. And any of ours can go off big time on any night. Big advantage UConn.

If the team hits shots early unlike these last few games, I really don't think this game will be that close. They found a way to shut down McBride last year, and hopefully they can do it again, leaving Loyd as the sole offensive weapon.

 

[Samanthabrown3]

Yeah, I just can't see ND grabbing 50 rebounds and 19 offensive rebounds.

Unfortunately, what I can see is more fouls than usual because ND will crash the boards and the refs will think Stef doesn't have her hands straight up.

 

[schmendrick]

What about the X factor? Which is to say, Ace. Not her absence, but the way her absence has galvanized her teammates. As poorly as Maryland played, let's credit ND for its overwhelming performance.

The question is whether they can continue to ride the emotion against us.

 

[pppggg]

ND will be desprerate for a win on Tuesday night. Their pace will be frantic.

They will be forcing things and make errors that will lead to turnovers and a 12-15 point win for the Huskies.

 

[meyers7]

Yeah, I just can't see ND grabbing 50 rebounds and 19 offensive rebounds.

I think if UCONN is having trouble on the boards, Geno can send in Stokes with orders to lock down the boards. She won't have to worry about anything else, just lock down the boards.

 

[huskeynut]

A team can only ride emotion for so long. After that it saps your energy level.

A lot of their win over MD was based on emotion, especially McBride. I don't see that repeating itself tomorrow night.

 

[Geno-ista]

Nan can't put this in the blog until tonight so I'm posting it here.

UConn vs Notre Dame
NCAA Semi-Final
Tuesday 8:30 Nashville, Tennessee
TV - ESPN
Records UConn 39-0, Notre Dame 37-0

NCAA results to date

Uconn 87 Prairie View A&M 44
Uconn 91 Saint Josephs 52
Uconn 70 BYU 51
Uconn Texas 79 A&M 54
Uconn 75 Stanford 56

Notre Dame 93 Robert Morris 42
Notre Dame 84 Arizona State 67
Notre Dame 89 Oklahoma State 72
Notre Dame 88 Baylor 69
Notre Dame 87 Maryland 61

Overview
Uconn and Notre Dame are meeting for the 42nd time with the series in favor of Uconn 30-11. Uconn is 9-4 at Notre Dame, 18-4 at home and 3-3 in neutral sites.


UConn Starting Lineup
14 G Bria Hartley SR 5'9” 31.9 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.4 apg
5 G Moriah Jefferson SO 5'7” 29.5 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.8 apg
30 F/C Breana Stewart SO 6'4” 30.3 mpg, 19.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 3.0 apg
23 F Kaleena Mosqueda-Lewis JR 6' 28.8 mpg, 13.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.6 apg
31 C Stefanie Dolson SR 6'5” 32.2 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 3.3 apg
UConn Bench
41 C/F Kia Stokes JR 6'3” 18.7 mpg, 4.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 0.8 apg
13 G Briana Banks JR 5'9” 14.6 mpg, 3.9 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.3 apg
12 G Sanyia Chong FR 5'9” 17.5 mpg, 4.8 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.6 apg


Notre Dame Starting Lineup
32 G Jewel Loyd SO 5'10” 29.7 mpg, 18.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.1 apg
21 G Kayla McBride SR 5'11” 29.2 mpg, 17.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 3.9 apg
12 C Taya Reimer FR 6'3” 19.0 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.6 apg
15 G Lindsay Allen FR 5'7” 26.7 mpg, 6.3 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.9 apg
44 F Ariel Braker SR 6'1” 16.9 mpg, 4.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.3 apg
Notre Dame Bench
23 G Michaela Mabrey SO 5'10” 19.9 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 2.2 apg
22 G Madison Cable JR 5'11” 14.5 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.0 apg
34 F Markisha Wright JR 6'2” 8.9 mpg, 2.4 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 0.4 apg

Game Analysis

We've been waiting for this game almost all season. I think the results of the season to date have clearly shown how much better than everyone else both Uconn and ND are. Now it's time to see who is the best of the best.

Against Maryland, with Achonwa out, it was interesting to see how their post players stepped up. I'm sure that even ND fans were surprised to see Wright, the 6'2” junior forward, who played only 10 minutes a game averaging 2 points 2 rebounds come in against Maryland and be so effective. She had maybe the game of her life with 12 points and 9 rebounds. The thing with games of your like when you are a role player that doesn't see a lot of time is that rarely do those result carry to the next game. Reimer played 30 minutes, something she has to do in place of Achonwa in the starting lineup. She had her freshman moments, but played very well, and with 4 assists, she was Achonwa-like. I think the emotions of their leader being hurt carried these players to heights not seen before for them. Cable play some excellent minutes as well.
Their guard play was amazing as always. I would put Loyd and McBride up there with any other two guards/wings in the country. So much talent between the two of them. Loyd is a freak in a good way. Her silky smooth jumper and her incredible leaping ability make her a match-up nightmare. McBride was just devastating again Maryland. She basically did what she wanted. Pull up jumpers, step back 3's, hard drives to the basket...Maryland had no answers for her. Allen did what she always does, facilitates without mistakes. 5 assists and no turnovers. Mabrey contributed very little. Her shot wasn't falling and she was scoreless with no assists and 2 TO's.
ND's defense in this game was terrific. They had a good plan in covering Thomas and of course Brenda had no clue on how to adjust to it. One of the worst games Maryland play this season, but you can't deny credit to ND's defense. It's hard to believe that they would out rebound Maryland 50-21 and 19-4 in offensive rebounds. Did Maryland play their JV on the boards? Unbelievable effort on ND's part.

Uconn had its typical slow start against Stanford, as they have in most games in the tourney. I'm sure Geno is scratching his head on this one. A slow start against ND will not be as easy to over as it was against Stanford. When it was 22-16 in favor of Stanford with 5:39 left in the half, I'm sure all Uconn fans were waiting for the “run”. And Connecticut didn't disappoint. In the last 5 minutes of the half, a 6 point deficit turned into a 4 point lead. Great defense and clutch shooting had every fan breathing a little easier. In the first 5 minutes of the second half, Uconn was just as dominating, turning that 4 point lead into a 17 point lead. Between the 1st half ending run and the 2nd half beginning run, Uconn outscored Stanford by a 24-5 margin and the game was essentially over.
Once against, Uconn played only 6 players but all contributed as always with Stokes the only player under 10 points (with 9) as all 5 starters had double digits. Geno was able to adjust by putting in Stokes and Stanford had no answer to the 3 bigs on the court at the same time.
Uconn's guard/wing play was solid if not spectacular. Hartley hit one really clutch three pointer in the first run and Jefferson was all over the court, driving the Stanford team crazy with her defense. KML didn't get a lot of looks from the perimeter but hit some nice elbow jumpers.
Defensively, Uconn was outstanding. Not unexpected from the best defensive team in the country. 10 steals (5 from Jefferson) really spurred the team on and turned defense into offense.
Stanford never backed down (unlike Maryland) and Uconn showed why they are the #1 team in the country.
So, how does this all play into the upcoming championship match-up? I'm sure others have a different opinion on who will guard who, but I think that when both teams are playing man-to-man, which is most of the time, the match-ups are like this:

Jefferson vs Allen. This is a very interesting match-up Both have excellent speed and ball handling ability. I believe Jefferson has the edge in both at this time. Allen has been pretty darn consistent for a freshman point guard. She takes care of the ball and doesn't make a lot of mistakes. But again, she has never faced a defensive player as good as Jefferson. How Allen handles this pressure will go a long way in how ND performs in this game. They don't need her to score, just to take care of the ball. Jefferson will also put pressure on Allen when Jefferson has the ball. Can Allen keep Jefferson out of the lane? Without fouling? Under the glaring lights of the championship game? I think Uconn has a clear advantage here.

Hartley vs Loyd. Wow.....are there two better shooting guards in the country (sorry Baylor fans) than these two? Hartley brings so much experience along with her obvious skills. She just seems to know what Uconn needs and when they need it. Her shooting, along with everyone else on the team is a little off, but she hits the shots when Uconn needs them most. Her on the ball defense is terrific. And she will need all of her experience and defense skills to play against what I think is the best offensive guard in the country. Her athleticism is off the charts. What other guard receives alley-oop passes? Her pull up jumper is unstoppable. She plays solid defense, but not the lock down defense that will stop Hartley from making her offensive moves. It's hard to give any team the advantage in this match-up.

KML vs McBride. Are there two more dynamic scorers from the wing position? Very different skill-set, but both are impossible to stop when they are on their games. McBride can score from anywhere and in so many ways, from her impossible to stop step back jumper (out to 3 point range) to her hard drives to the basket. She also had good but not great 3 point range. Similar to Dolson, but not quite as extreme, she has tone her body into WNBA ready. She is strong and still quick. KML is still the sweetest shooter in the country. Over some of this tournament, she has been as good as ever. Her range is limitless and now she is working hard on rebounding and getting into the lane. It makes her even more dangerous. When these two superstars cover each other, I have to give a slight edge to McBride, but the margin here is paper thin.

Stewart vs Braker. Ahuge advantage here for Uconn. I'm not sure what is up with Braker. She played only 11 minutes in the Maryland game. Was it match-ups? The fact that Wright was so effective? In any event, even with Stewart not playing like the tourney MVP, Braker will struggle to cover her. All Stewart has to do is keep Braker off the boards. Stewart has struggles with her offensive game, but I certainly can see her breaking out when she sees the green and golf of ND.

Dolson vs Reimer. Ahhhh....what could have been the best match-up of the game now may turn into how quickly can Dolson get the freshman Reimer into foul trouble. Reimer has been assessed 15 fouls in 68 minutes in the last 4 tourney games. That is almost 1 foul every 4 minutes on the court. And she hasn't played anyone with the post game of Dolson. Of course, the question is always can Uconn get the ball to Dolson on the block. Reimer has a decent post game, utilizing her strong hand (lefty) to score with put-backs. But in this game she should struggle with Dolson's size and slick post moves with either hand.
Benches - Stokes vs Mabrey, Cable, Wright. Well in numbers you have to give it to ND. McGraw has declared her bench the best in the country and they certainly did a great job against Maryland. Wright had the game of her life, Cable was effective. Now does anyone think that Wright can duplicate her stats against Uconn? Very doubtful. I do expect Mabrey to be more effective in the Uconn game than she was against Maryland. Connecticut has occasionally let a player sneak open for a 3 and Mabrey won't hesitate to shoot if that happens with her. Stokes has been great in the tourney so far. She has earned her spot as the only player off the bench. Her defense and rebounding have continued to shine and against Stanford she show what she can do when she is more offensive minded.
So, where does that leave us? I tend to agree with Lawson in her assessment. It's all about match-ups and while ND matches up well with Uconn in the guard and wing position with maybe a slight advantage, the front lines are not in the same world. Dolson, Stewart and Stokes vs Reimer, Braker, Wright and maybe Cable? If Uconn can get the ball in the post, it could be real difficult for the ND defenders to stop Uconn with fouling. And if the bigs on ND get in foul trouble, game over.
Of course Loyd and McBride are good enough to score 25 each in this game. When they are on, it doesn't matter who is guarding them. But they will still need enough from the other players to win this game.
Final prediction
A universe in which there exists such a thing as an irresistible force is, by definition, a universe which cannot also contain an immovable object. And a universe which contains an immovable object cannot, by definition, also contain an irresistible force. So the question is essentially meaningless: either the force is irresistible or the object is immovable, but not both.
So, what does this mean in regards to this game? Well, so far this season, Notre Dame's offense is the irresistible force and Uconn's defense is immoveable object. But during this game, only one of them can exist. I'm a big proponent of the theory “defense wins championships”. And I totally agree with Geno, who has said recently “defense wins games, offense gives you the final margin”.
I would suggest we use last years scores between these two teams to give us an idea if ND can score the 88.2 they have averaged in the tourney. ND scored 73, 64 (in regulation), 61 and 65. Uconn is even a better defensive team than last year. Is ND better offensively than last year? Maybe when Achonwa was there, but not now.
ND has played great defense in spurts. They don't seem to be able to play great defense for 40 minutes. I think this is where they really miss Diggins. And now without Achonwa, they are weaker than they were for most of this season both offensively and defensively . In the tourney, not including the 1 vs 16
game ND has allowed 67 ppg. I don't think they have the defense to stop Uconn from scoring over 70 points in this game.
I have to give credit to ND for their great emotional effort against Maryland. But Uconn is a different situation. The match-ups are not good for ND and Uconn has played great defense this tourney.
I'm going with Uconn to win number nine, and to win by 8-12 points.

Awesome as always- this is unbelievable analysis. I have a feeling we will break out tonight, and be able to exploit ND's weakness in the post and their defense sooner. I think we could be running off into the sunset by 20-25 pretty easily. Achonwa really hurts , and all the disrespect for Stewie at POY, and recent Muppet quotes- I think we will be draining shots and rolling. I think our biggest test was Stanford- because of Achonwa injury. I think we would have by won 8-12 anyway! Thanks DD-again!!!!!

 

[Tonyc]

Great Job Doggy. Let me say a couple of things. UConn has 5 scorers who can put up big numbers. ND has two and between our guards and height we can stop them. For those of you who comparing teams by the last games played remember this. ND played at home, UConn didnt . Next ND out rebounded MD by 30 and virtually had non contested layups and shots. Reimer will not fair well against UConns front court and Braker has always been in foul trouble against UConn. Where does that leave ND in the post? McBride and Loyd will not get the wide open shots they got against UConn and they will not outrebound UConn by 30. They most likely wont out rebound UConn period. Can UConn stop Loyd and McBride, absolutely they can. Who can pick up the scoring? Good question. I think UConn will win this game by 15+ and UConns defense will squeeze ND. The post is going to be almost wide open and ND will most likely will pack it in forcing UConn to shoot from the outside. The biggest difference will be from UConns ability to rebound and get out on the fast break. ND will not have the fast breaks they had against ND. Im not concerned about UConns slow start because theyve been on the road. ND may have to worry about playing on the road in this one. I like our bigs playing big and the loss of Achonwa will be exploited.

Final UConn 73 ND 55

 

[UConnCat]

I wonder about the strategy of both coaches. Will ND go with 4 guards? I think they will. Playing Reimer and Braker allows two of UConn's big defenders to stay in the paint and protect the rim instead of pulling one away from the basket. Geno will force them to make open shots. Will Geno go with the big lineup? I think doing so will present some challenges defensively.

For most of this season this has felt to me like it's Notre Dame's year. They have played on a mission, fueled in large part by the disappointment last year. If both McBride and Loyd play at another level (we've seen it), then it will be really tough to beat them. I worry that UConn may not be able to score enough points.

 

[Sonny44]

If we limit McBride + Lloyd to 35 points we'll win easily. At 40 we win close. More that that its a dog fight.

 

[doggydaddy]

I wonder about the strategy of both coaches. Will ND go with 4 guards? I think they will. Playing Reimer and Braker allows two of UConn's big defenders to stay in the paint and protect the rim instead of pulling one away from the basket. Geno will force them to make open shots. Will Geno go with the big lineup? I think doing so will present some challenges defensively.

For most of this season this has felt to me like it's Notre Dame's year. They have played on a mission, fueled in large part by the disappointment last year. If both McBride and Loyd play at another level (we've seen it), then it will be really tough to beat them. I worry that UConn may not be able to score enough points.

So, what would be the lineup with 4 guards?

McBride, Loyd, Allen, Mabrey and either Reimer/Braker/Wright?

Assuming one of the bigs is on Dolson (a huge mismatch), does McBride cover Stewart?( a huger mismatch) and does Loyd cover KML? And does Mabry cover Hartley?

They would probably play zone. Uconn would pick it apart.

 

[UConnCat]

So, what would be the lineup with 4 guards?

McBride, Loyd, Allen, Mabrey and either Reimer/Braker/Wright?

Assuming one of the bigs is on Dolson (a huge mismatch), does McBride cover Stewart?( a huger mismatch) and does Loyd cover KML? And does Mabry cover Hartley?

They would probably play zone. Uconn would pick it apart.

Muffet typically plays zone when Mabrey is in the game because she's a defensive liability. Interesting that Cable has played more minutes than Mabrey in the past 3 games. Part of it may be that Cable is a better defender, and also Mabrey has not shot the ball well so the defensive issues become more of a problem. Cable has shot the ball pretty well so I would expect to see Muffet go to her rather than Mabrey. I think we may see McBride on Stewie and it will be up to Stewie to post her up. Loyd has guarded KML in the past and will likely do so again. Loyd has done a good job taking the 3-ball away from KML.

I see ND trying to do what Stanford did last night. Play a sagging man and clog up the paint. Most coaches will tell you that they would rather Stewart shoot jumpers than get in the lane. We saw that Stanford's only option in the lane last night was to foul Stewie. ND knows that UConn has struggled with its jump shots so they'll force UConn to prove they can make them.

 

[doggydaddy]

ND knows that UConn has struggled with its jump shots so they'll force UConn to prove they can make them.

This.

They don't have any other choice.

 

[baggerbob]

Stewie should be on the low blocks all game with Stef at the high post, all plays run through Stef, eventually Notre Dame would have to double Stewie, leaving Stef easy passes to open shooters, KML, Bria, or Moriah.

 

[Samanthabrown3]

Bottom line: If UConn starts out as sluggishly as it has in the last three games, their chances are poor.