This game will come down to how to two things:
1. How well Loyd and McBride can score from the midrange, off of ball screens and pull-up dribble drives.
2. How well we control the defensive glass.
1. ND Midrange - I agree with DD that "Uconn is even a better defensive team than last year." However, the character of our defense is different. This year we encourage our guards to play tighter since we have confidence in our back line to defend the rim, where we are the all-time leader in team shot blocks. We also alter a lot of shots.
But no defense is impregnable; this includes ours. This is the game where we will miss Kelly Faris. The "soft spot" in our defense, if you want to call it that, is the midrange. Since the game has evolved to place a greater emphasis on 3's and layups, the number of players who excel at the midrange is pretty small. Loyd and McBride are best guard tandem in the country at exploiting the midrange, both in scoring the ball or passing. (I think Mo is the best or among the best at getting to the rim.) They don't have to get all the way to the rim to face our shot blockers every time. And the 5'11" Defensive POY in last year's Big East was the best at staying with defenders as they attempted to penetrate. She had the extra length and athleticism to still challenge the midrange scoring opportunity. I understand that KF was not defending *everyone* 1-on-1 all the time, and that defense is a team effort, but against ND tonight her departure will hurt, particularly since with Achonwa out the guards know they have the green light to do that much more.
Our pressure D on the perimeter will pay some dividends, but not as much against this pair. (We could definitely rattle Allen, however...) Both Loyd and KMcBhave the skill and length to get into the midrange even against the quicker MoJeff, because she plays tight. On ball screens, if we play our usual D , where Mo and Bria fight over or through the screen, this will potentially give both Loyd and McBride the opening they need to attack the middle. I think more often we will need to switch screens against them, unless they do not play the attacking style that I expect.
This might be another game where the Big 3 lineup could turn the tide. With Kiah and Stef patrolling the rim, Stewie could again be utilized to extend the 'back line' pressure further toward the perimeter, via her help defense. We will see.
2. Defensive glass - If we can control the boards on their end, our transition game and scoring efficiency over the entire 40 mins should be too much for them to overcome, so #1 would be moot
unless they shoot like Villinova '85 or something....
If we play the boards [only] even or--worse yet--allow them an edge, and Loyd/McBride execute well from the midrange, this game will be a nail-biter.
And I won't even talk about duck_l trouble. Just hoping they let them play a little.