UConn Metrics (1/14)

[BFieldHusky]

NET: 8
KenPom: 10
BPI: 10
Torvik: 4
WAB: 1

Road/Neutral: 8-0

SOS: 62

Q1: 5-1
Q2: 5-0
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 4-0

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Just keep winning and the rest will fall into place

 

[Tenspro2002]

The key question at this point is whether we should be concerned that predictive metrics keep sliding the wrong way with a series of unimpressive wins, or whether we should be encouraged that the team keeps finding a way to win (and building that #1 seed resume) despite mediocre play.

 

[BFieldHusky]

The key question at this point is whether we should be concerned that predictive metrics keep sliding the wrong way with a series of unimpressive wins, or whether we should be encouraged that the team keeps finding a way to win (and building that #1 seed resume) despite mediocre play.

One thing to note is there is very little separation in the metrics we can see. For example, the difference between 5th and 10th in KenPom is less than a point.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

The key question at this point is whether we should be concerned that predictive metrics keep sliding the wrong way with a series of unimpressive wins, or whether we should be encouraged that the team keeps finding a way to win (and building that #1 seed resume) despite mediocre play.

The way I see it is if we win the Big East regular season with no more than 2 losses we’re likely a 1 seed. Committee has shown that they don’t really care about conference tourney results too much but winning that would solidify it too as a tiebreaker of sorts.

 

[Lafayette]

The way I see it is if we win the Big East regular season with no more than 2 losses we’re likely a 1 seed. Committee has shown that they don’t really care about conference tourney results too much but winning that would solidify it too as a tiebreaker of sorts.

Likely yes unless we lose in the BET and the winner is Providence (just saying) who otherwise would be NIT bound grabs a spot and costs us a top seeding.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Likely yes unless we lose in the BET and the winner is Providence (just saying) who otherwise would be NIT bound grabs a spot and costs us a top seeding.

Bid-stealing would have no impact on our seeding.

I think the poster above is correct that we can't lose more than 2 Big East regular season games and definitely retain a #1 seed. 18-2 and losing in the BET would be borderline.

The conference is really bad this year. Seton Hall away might be our toughest game and there's a chance that not a single Big East home game will be Quad 1.

 

[UCFan1513]

For the first year in a few, I’m not worried about KenPom. We don’t step on other team’s throats in garbage time, hence our metrics suffer - I am confident they’ll clean that up, and others will start to fall here in conference play when there are less cupcakes to stat pad against (Iowa State, Michigan)

We’ve beaten a lot of very excellent teams, and the eye test says our experience and toughness wills us to wins. I’d rather be 10th in KenPom and where we are than 3rd holding three close losses and a bunch of blowout wins

Use the eye test: is this the 10th best team in the country? I don’t think so

 

[Lafayette]

Bid-stealing would have no impact on our seeding.

I think the poster above is correct that we can't lose more than 2 Big East regular season games and definitely retain a #1 seed. 18-2 and losing in the BET would be borderline.

The conference is really bad this year. Seton Hall away might be our toughest game and there's a chance that not a single Big East home game will be Quad 1.

I admit defeat - not sure what I was thinking (long night was at game)

 

[BFieldHusky]

Bid-stealing would have no impact on our seeding.

I think the poster above is correct that we can't lose more than 2 Big East regular season games and definitely retain a #1 seed. 18-2 and losing in the BET would be borderline.

The conference is really bad this year. Seton Hall away might be our toughest game and there's a chance that not a single Big East home game will be Quad 1.

Right now the amount of Q1 games left in the regular season:

St Johns x2
Villanova x2
@Creighton
@Butler

6 games left. Note that St. Johns and Nova are right on the cut line for a home Q1 opportunity.

 

[JB75]

NET: 8
KenPom: 10
BPI: 10
Torvik: 4
WAB: 1

Road/Neutral: 8-0

SOS: 62

Q1: 5-1
Q2: 5-0
Q3: 3-0
Q4: 4-0

I know it’s a “down” year for the big east but how the hell is our strength to schedule 62 after the non-conference we played past couple months? Thought it would be at least top 20

 

[UConNick]

Duke I think had 9 or 10 Quad 1 wins on Selection Sunday last year. We’ll probably need a similar number at least (and a similarly gaudy record) to get on the top line like them, considering other teams in that convo will likely have 12-14 Q1 wins.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Duke I think had 9 or 10 Quad 1 wins on Selection Sunday last year. We’ll probably need a similar number at least (and a similarly gaudy record) to get on the top line like them, considering other teams in that convo will likely have 12-14 Q1 wins.

If we lose no more than 3 remaining games (which I think is necessary for a #1 seed), we'll get the 5 quad 1 wins we need to reach 10 total.

Q1 opportunities left are:

• St. Johns away
• Villanova away
• Creighton away
• Butler away
• St. John's home (maybe)
• Villanova home (maybe)
• BET semis (maybe)
• BET finals (probably)

I don't think any of these would be impressive marquee wins, though they would be Q1, and fortunately at least some of our high-profile OOC scalps haven't totally fallen off a cliff and still look good.

 

[navery12]

Interesting where we fall here given all the talk about our inconsistency shooting

 

[auror]

Duke also had crazy high predictive metrics, which are taken into account a bit for the top seeds as an element of the resume. Ours are likely to not be as high, so we'll need at least 10 Q1s I think.

 

[BFieldHusky]

If we lose no more than 3 remaining games (which I think is necessary for a #1 seed), we'll get the 5 quad 1 wins we need to reach 10 total.

Q1 opportunities left are:

• St. Johns away
• Villanova away
• Creighton away
• Butler away
• St. John's home (maybe)
• Villanova home (maybe)
• BET semis (maybe)
• BET finals (probably)

I don't think any of these would be impressive marquee wins, though they would be Q1, and fortunately at least some of our high-profile OOC scalps haven't totally fallen off a cliff and still look good.

The good thing is unlike last year, the teams we beat in the non league schedule are having good to great seasons.

BYU (9 NET)
Illinois (10 NET)
Florida (15 NET)
Kansas (18 NET)
Texas (50 NET)

 

[bendm]

If we went undefeated in BE and won the BET How many Ls do Zona and Michigan need for us to get the #1 overall? Let’s assume they’re all Q1 or 2.

I’d love to be on the left side of the bracket with whoever gets the last 1 seed.

 

[Umami Zen]

The good thing is unlike last year, the teams we beat in the non league schedule are having good to great seasons.

BYU (9 NET)
Illinois (10 NET)
Florida (15 NET)
Kansas (18 NET)
Texas (50 NET)

Seton Hall NET as 1/12 was 39.. Gotta believe that will improve as season goes on

 

[HooperScooper]

I wasn't concentrating on WAB before mostly because I didn't really understand what it was. It's explained very well in this article. It's used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and since UConn is #1 by a pretty decent margin I'll pay more attention to it going forward.

The NCAA's seeding committee will use Wins Above Bubble (dubbed WAB) for the second year in a row. WAB is all about the resume. What have you done on the court? WAB measures what the average bubble team would have done, and each team is given a boost or a reduction based on the outcome. Missouri can beat Bethune-Cookman by eight or 80; the final score does not matter.

How is this calculated? Simple math. The average bubble team is given a 95% chance of beating Bethune-Cookman at home. WAB is calculated from the gap between the projected win percentage and the actual win number of 1.0. Since Missouri won, it was given 0.05 WAB for that victory. If it had lost, it would have been a -0.95 WAB in the ledger.

Trotter's Trends: Auburn's Keyshawn Hall might be best transfer scorer ever; WAB lessons

Which teams have built the best resumes through two months according to the NCAA's new Wins Above Bubble metric

www.cbssports.com

WAB Watch: WAB Watch