UConn is good enough

[Get a Job]

I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough. As of this morning Lunardi has us on 4 line. He has schools like Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois on the 3 line who honestly don't have that much different resumes than us.

One could imagine a scenario in which we end up with an absolutely monster résumé heading into selection Sunday. We could be undefeated in our last 10 games with home and neutral wins over Nova and Xavier (or Seton Hall), road wins against St. John's and Creighton, and a neutral win over Providence in that span. Without trying to figure out what that scenario would entail NET-wise, suffice it to say that there would be quite a lot of Q1 and Q2 wins on the team sheet. No bad losses either. Are there 8 teams a better résumé? Probably not.

But, that scenario probably won't play out.

 

[UCLJ0211]

A seven-loss team pulling a 2 seed?

Nova has 7 losses now. If they win out, they are likely a 2 seed.

 

[bendm]

I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough.

i dont see how we could possibly get a 2. next week we'll jump into the mid teens and nova will drop out of the top 10. they will then play PC so one of them will drop further in the rankings. we will end up having to play both to win the BET and they'll both probably be ranked in the low to mid teens. beating teams ranked right around where we are is maybe worth a 3 seed (ranked 9-12) not a 2 seed (ranked 5-8).

 

[AntG168]

i dont see how we could possibly get a 2. nova is going to drop to around ~15 next week. they will then play PC so one of them will drop even further in the rankings. we will end up having to play both to win the BET and they'll both probably be ranked in the mid to low teens. beating them is worth of a 3 seed (meaning we're ranked 9-12) not a 2 seed (ranked 5-8).

That’s not how they do seeding

 

[auror]

I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough. As of this morning Lunardi has us on 4 line. He has schools like Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois on the 3 line who honestly don't have that much different resumes than us.

A 2 seems hard to come by... our close missed opportunities earlier in the season might prevent that. 3 is easily possible with winning out. Don't forget other teams are going to win more games, too.

 

[August_West]

My son and I were discussing this from our seats. If the offensive strategy was to feed Adama no matter what, which is what dug us the hole that we were lucky but determined to climb out of, you can’t have both AJ and IW in at the same time. It’s too easy to double team the post and guard the perimeter with two non-shooters on it. If you are determined to feed the post in crunch time, Tyler has to come in for one of them.

It’s an excellent defense. Not a great offense.

 

[bendm]

That’s not how they do seeding

and winning 2 more games against teams ranked around ~15 yet suddenly being considered a top 8 team isnt how they do it either. assuming the teams ahead of us dont implode. if they came out with rankings after the tourneys but before selection sunday theyd be very predictive of seeding.

 

[AntG168]

and winning 2 more games against teams ranked around ~15 yet suddenly being considered a top 8 team isnt how they do it either.

Huh?

They do seeding based on resume. The End.

 

[kobebeanbryant]

 

[bendm]

They do seeding based on resume. The End.

rankings are based on resume too

 

[Senor Blue]

i dont see how we could possibly get a 2. next week we'll jump into the mid teens and nova will drop out of the top 10. they will then play PC so one of them will drop further in the rankings. we will end up having to play both to win the BET and they'll both probably be ranked in the low to mid teens. beating teams ranked right around where we are is maybe worth a 3 seed (ranked 9-12) not a 2 seed (ranked 5-8).

Ratings-wise neither are going to drop that far. PC/Nova had like a 2 spot change in polls and NET when they played last week.

If anything the last few weeks have shown that the top 3 of the BE are probably right around the top 10 in the country.

If UConn runs the table - and takes down a top 10/15 Nova and PC in the Big East tourney?

That would mean10 straight victories, 11 of 12, 4 highly ranked teams, BE title, 26 wins - 17 of which are in arguably the best conference in college basketball? 2 seed is absolutely on the table.

 

[PAHusky]

We should only be playing 8 guys. Our starters plus Polley and Akok and Hawkins. They are the only ones I trust.

No idea what Akok's status is, but you need to add Gaffney in here. He's been (mostly rightfully so) dogged on here, but Cole needs to get more time on the bench or we're going to run him into the ground. Last night especially Kimani didn't give Cole much of a rest in the second half. Cole got it done anyways because he's an animal, but come BET and tourney time we need him fresh to finish out games. I think the confidence is starting to come back for Gaffney and the game is slowing down for him a bit, really bullish on him being able to contribute solid minutes the rest of this season.

 

[Senor Blue]

No idea what Akok's status is, but you need to add Gaffney in here. He's been (mostly rightfully so) dogged on here, but Cole needs to get more time on the bench or we're going to run him into the ground. Last night especially Kimani didn't give Cole much of a rest in the second half. Cole got it done anyways because he's an animal, but come BET and tourney time we need him fresh to finish out games. I think the confidence is starting to come back for Gaffney and the game is slowing down for him a bit, really bullish on him being able to contribute solid minutes the rest of this season.

Akok is still recovering from injury but day to day. He was gametime. He'll be back.

Gaffney is still struggling. With Cole out in the Xavier game he couldn't break the press and was part of the deluge of turnovers in the 2nd that let Xavier get back in.

Agreed we need more from Gaffney, but he needs to be more careful with the ball.

I hope you're right and the game is slowing down for him, because we'll need Cole rested for the BET.

Thurs/Fri/Sat could potentially line up Fri/Sat as Nova/PC. You'll need every bit of RJ there.

 

[6xChamps]

A 2 seems hard to come by... our close missed opportunities earlier in the season might prevent that. 3 is easily possible with winning out. Don't forget other teams are going to win more games, too.

Yea I'm with you that it's tough, my argument was more to the initial post that said if we win out we'd be the last 3 seed, where I think we'd be closer to the upper echelon with a chance at a 2 if things break our way. If we win out that means we'd get one more Q1 win in reg season (@Creighton) and if we play someone like Seton Hall in our 1st BE matchup we could be looking at 3 straight Q1 games in order to win a BE championship. Add those 4 Q1 wins to the resume and maybe flip the VCU win from Q2 to Q1 we'd be looking at a resume with a 10-6 Q1 record and 1 Q2 loss which I think atleast gets us in the 2 seed conversation.

Again very unlikely and personally my sights are set on the 4 line but just laying the scenario out.

 

[polycom]

Nova both made more and at a better % than we did last game. But for UConn you're not far off. We usually dominate other facets of the game (rebounding, paint offense/defense), so this is the one area that we can get really bloodied on. If we don't get obliterated in the cat, then we should win the game.

Yes, I think you made my point. If we do the things we normally do well every game and didn't shoot the 3 well last game we lose.

 

[businesslawyer]

It’s an excellent defense. Not a great offense.

Yes. Which is why I have no problem with our starting five. But after the last TV time out, when you need a score ....

 

[Hankster]

Our over-reliance on RJ and Adama is our weakness and makes us fairly easy to scout, prepare for and defend imo.

I agree that we can make a nice run with the right match-ups, but sooner or later the lack of a second ball handler will be the death of us--sooner if neither Polley nor Hawkins are hitting from outside.

To that point, my only qualm with Kimani last night was going with the starting lineup when we were down two with 3:45 left. That's a strong lineup if you are trying to lock down and hold on to a lead, but not when you are down two and need a score. When he finally put Polley in with 30 seconds left, we finally scored; and still needed an off-balance prayer from RJ, followed by an even more unlikely charge call on Gillespie to seal it.

I don't think Kimani played Gaffney at all in the second half, which tells you everything about how much we are relying on RJ.

Gaff has to play. He has been playing ball of late. he can hit a three and drive to the hoop. Just play him. I have seen him go in, throw the ball away, and Hurley yanks him. I think he is getting a bad rap.

 

[8893]

Yes. Which is why I have no problem with our starting five. But after the last TV time out, when you need a score ....

I think the biggest problem when we are in this situation is deciding whether to sit AJax, Whaley or Martin when you need to insert Polley or Hawkins for offense. Although the three of them share many overlapping qualities, they each go about it in different ways and it's hard to remove one of them for fear that you will need, for example, Whaley's sheer grit, Martin's, leadership, drive and intensity or AJax's disruption, rebounding, passing and athletic freakishness.

Most of time it's AJax who sits, and most of the time I would agree with that based on his exceedingly low offensive output, but looking back at the highlights he was so key in so many other facets last night that I can understand the reluctance to sit him. Martin has improved his scoring a lot, and his leadership is clearly needed for this team, so I would be very reluctant to sit him down the stretch at this point. As much as I love Whaley--and I know the players love him--I think I would lean towards sitting him when we need more offensive options.

 

[AntG168]

rankings are based on resume too

No, no they aren’t

 

[businesslawyer]

I think the biggest problem when we are in this situation is deciding whether to sit AJax, Whaley or Martin when you need to insert Polley or Hawkins for offense. Although the three of them share many overlapping qualities, they each go about it in different ways and it's hard to remove one of them for fear that you will need, for example, Whaley's sheer grit, Martin's, leadership, drive and intensity or AJax's disruption, rebounding, passing and athletic freakishness.

Most of time it's AJax who sits, and most of the time I would agree with that based on his exceedingly low offensive output, but looking back at the highlights he was so key in so many other facets last night that I can understand the reluctance to sit him. Martin has improved his scoring a lot, and his leadership is clearly needed for this team, so I would be very reluctant to sit him down the stretch at this point. As much as I love Whaley--and I know the players love him--I think I would lean towards sitting him when we need more offensive options.

When the goal is to make four defenders stay on the perimeter, sitting Martin isn't a possibility. You have to sit AJ or Whaley. Both of those players make the team better in a lot of ways, no doubt. But if you are playing the game one possession at a time, where there are frequent play stoppages and offense/defense subs, and you are determined to feed the post, it has to happen.

 

[8893]

When the goal is to make four defenders stay on the perimeter, sitting Martin isn't a possibility. You have to sit AJ or Whaley. Both of those players make the team better in a lot of ways, no doubt. But if you are playing the game one possession at a time, where there are frequent play stoppages and offense/defense subs, and you are determined to feed the post, it has to happen.

Agreed. Despite my skepticism about him coming into the season, Martin has played himself into being our third most essential player (after RJ and Adama). Whether driven by will or skill, his ceiling is higher than I thought it was.

 

[bendm]

No, no they aren’t

you rope me into the dumbest arguments. this isn't 2011 when beating 5 teams, including #22, 3, 11, and 14, in the BET is going to jump us from #21 to a 3 seed in the tourney, never mind a 2 seed.

i know the selection committee doesnt just sort teams based on their rankings, duh, but the rankings are still wholistic and predictive of seeding. beating a ranked nova and pc wont improve our resume so drastically between now and selection sunday so as to warrant being considered a top 8 team in the tourney, especially if pc beats nova before then. it doesnt make any sense.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

It’s an excellent defense. Not a great offense.

Doesn't it therefore most matter whether in crunch time the team needs to lock down & protect the lead, or overtake & stop an opponent from doing that?

 

[8893]

Doesn't it therefore most matter whether in crunch time the team needs to lock down & protect the lead, or overtake & stop an opponent from doing that?

Yes. That’s the exact point we are discussing. And last night it was the latter.

 

[August_West]

Doesn't it therefore most matter whether in crunch time the team needs to lock down & protect the lead, or overtake & stop an opponent from doing that?

Sure. It’s a delicate balance. But if you’re behind you want ( need) to score too.