UConn is good enough | The Boneyard

UConn is good enough

nelsonmuntz

nelsonmuntz

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We know that UConn is not the best team in the country. The players each have obvious weaknesses, there is not enough production out of the bench, and I have never seen a Top 25 team have this much trouble finishing at the rim. But UConn can rebound with anyone, and this team has size, athleticism, speed, and just enough outside shooting. This team is good enough to beat any team in the country on any given day, as Villanova and Auburn have learned.

UConn needs to finish strong because seeding is going to matter a lot for this team. If UConn gets a good seed, there are only a small handful of teams (Gonzaga, UCLA, Baylor) that I would rather not see in UConn's region, but none of them are showstoppers. To be honest, I think there are a lot of overrated teams like Arizona, Kentucky and Purdue in the Top 10 that do not scare me at all.

The talent is already there for a deep run in March. Now it is up to the players and the coaches to play smart and with poise. This could turn into a very special season.
 
Our over-reliance on RJ and Adama is our weakness and makes us fairly easy to scout, prepare for and defend imo.

I agree that we can make a nice run with the right match-ups, but sooner or later the lack of a second ball handler will be the death of us--sooner if neither Polley nor Hawkins are hitting from outside.

To that point, my only qualm with Kimani last night was going with the starting lineup when we were down two with 3:45 left. That's a strong lineup if you are trying to lock down and hold on to a lead, but not when you are down two and need a score. When he finally put Polley in with 30 seconds left, we finally scored; and still needed an off-balance prayer from RJ, followed by an even more unlikely charge call on Gillespie to seal it.

I don't think Kimani played Gaffney at all in the second half, which tells you everything about how much we are relying on RJ.
 
Now we know we can beat anyone. We haven't been able to say that for years. A team like this, with talent, and the mentality that they can win every night, is going to be dangerous.
 
HuskyWarrior611 said:
If we want to make a tournament run we NEED our guards to step up. Gaffney, Hawkins, Jackson needs to develop some type of touch around the rim.
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We should only be playing 8 guys. Our starters plus Polley and Akok and Hawkins. They are the only ones I trust.
 
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8893 said:
Our over-reliance on RJ and Adama is our weakness and makes us fairly easy to scout, prepare for and defend imo.

I agree that we can make a nice run with the right match-ups, but sooner or later the lack of a second ball handler will be the death of us--sooner if neither Polley nor Hawkins are hitting from outside.

To that point, my only qualm with Kimani last night was going with the starting lineup when we were down two with 3:45 left. That's a strong lineup if you are trying to lock down and hold on to a lead, but not when you are down two and need a score. When he finally put Polley in with 30 seconds left, we finally scored; and still needed an off-balance prayer from RJ, followed by an even more unlikely charge call on Gillespie to seal it.

I don't think Kimani played Gaffney at all in the second half, which tells you everything about how much we are relying on RJ.
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My son and I were discussing this from our seats. If the offensive strategy was to feed Adama no matter what, which is what dug us the hole that we were lucky but determined to climb out of, you can’t have both AJ and IW in at the same time. It’s too easy to double team the post and guard the perimeter with two non-shooters on it. If you are determined to feed the post in crunch time, Tyler has to come in for one of them.
 
We now know that on any given night we can beat anyone. We can also lose to Un ranked teams, but the potential for a run is there.
 
businesslawyer said:
My son and I were discussing this from our seats. If the offensive strategy was to feed Adama no matter what, which is what dug us the hole that we were lucky but determined to climb out of, you can’t have both AJ and IW in at the same time. It’s too easy to double team the post and guard the perimeter with two non-shooters on it. If you are determined to feed the post in crunch time, Tyler has to come in for one of them.
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Nova was also very well prepared and got tips and steals on several of our entry passes. Not surprising with Wright, but the hands up worked like it does with DL batting down passes. Whaley, Martin and Jackson need to be more aware of it.
 
This team needs to avoid those extended periods of awful play, e.g. the 2nd half against Xavier just this past Saturday. If everyone can play to their potential 75% of the time, play smart, and stay out of foul trouble, they will make a nice run.
 
we have up to 6 games left. 3 regular season and 3 BET if we make it to the finals (since we're guaranteed a top 5 BET seed).

if we win our next 3 and the BE tourney we could snag the last 3 seed.

if we win our next 3 and make it to the BE finals i think we're a 4.

if we win our next 3 and 1 game in the BET i think we're a 5 (which is our current projection).

if we lose to gtown or depaul or in the first round of the BET we should be a 6 (but if our sole loss is at creighton and we win 1 or 2 games in the BET we're still a 5).
 
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Kolumbo said:
This team needs to avoid those extended periods of awful play, e.g. the 2nd half against Xavier just this past Saturday. If everyone can play to their potential 75% of the time, play smart, and stay out of foul trouble, they will make a nice run.
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A lot of that was Gaffney struggling to bring the ball up around Xavier's press. That and needing to rely on Tyrese to break the press as well. Really sloppy for a Hurley team out of the half.

This team has that "vibe" to it. One of those teams that with the right matchups, they could be playing in April.

RJ Cole is a gamer. Plays the whole floor. Literally was 100% responsible for 3/4 winning plays last night (tie up, game-winner, charge call). But he is a solid showing at MSG away from getting Kemba vibes and putting this team on his back in March.

Sanogo can absolutely play with any other big in the country. Immaculate technique. Great footwork. Has done great the last few games at avoiding stupid fouls. Lane clogger. Rim stopper.

Martin is a guy who just makes winning plays. Huge rebound against X on Saturday. Big plays down the stretch last night.

For starters, it kind of feels like the team will go as far as what TyPo and Whaley can give you from a scoring perspective. Polley is going to get his shots. Like last night if he can hit them, they're huge. Whaley's mid-range game is a huge key to spacing the defense and preventing them from stopping the ball going inside to Sanogo.

But the bench is everything - mainly the backcourt. Can Gaffney be more competent with the ball in his hands when he's spelling RJ? Can Jackson/Hawkins consistently hit open shots when they're on the floor?

Coaching-wise, Hurley's grown a lot. I don't care about the tech because a) it was BS, and b) that team was going to win for Danny last night.

But he's gotten very good at taking away whatever is killing his team. Dixon was a nightmare for the Huskies their first meeting against Nova. Got Sanogo into foul trouble and abused Whaley all night. Dixon was a non-factor last night. Defensively, Nova didn't get a ton of open shots, but they really just hit a ton of shots with hands in their face. They're a good team, they'll do that.

Huskies were better.

Team is set up to make a damn run. UConn is back!!
 
bazz&boujee said:
No no no. This is what we need to do. We do too much of that and when we do this good things happen. We’ve been doing that far too much and instead this is the recipe for a long tourney run. More of this, not that.
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Plus the adjustments
 
bendm said:
we have up to 6 games left. 3 regular season and 3 BET if we make it to the finals (since we're guaranteed a top 5 BET seed).

if we win our next 3 and the BE tourney we could snag the last 3 seed.

if we win our next 3 and make it to the BE finals i think we're a 4.

if we win our next 3 and 1 game in the BET i think we're a 5 (which is our current projection).

if we lose to gtown or depaul or in the first round of the BET we should be a 6 (but if our sole loss is at creighton and we win 1 or 2 games in the BET we're still a 5).
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This sounds about right.
3-2 probably has us as a 5. Worse may slide to a 6.
4-1 or 5-1 should be a 4.
6-0 should be a 3.

Here are my priorities:
1) Getting onto the 3 line would be a coup by allowing us to avoid the #1 seed
2) A 4/5 as a protected seed means we avoid playing an effective road game in the 2nd round
3) Getting a #4 instead of a #5 means we are likely to play an AQ from a weaker conference instead of a P5 at-large or the winner of a play-in game. There can be a significant difference in quality between a 12 and a 13 in the first round.

Getting a #4 seed is a realistic goal now and winning out in the regular season is nearly sufficient.
 
Historically, the NCAA champion has almost always had top 30 offenses and defenses entering the NCAA tournament (with a few exceptions here and there like our offense in 2014). Here are the 10 teams that are currently ranked top 30 in both offensive and defensive on KenPom (o, d ranks):

Gonzaga (2, 6)
Kentucky (4, 21)
Arizona (7, 8)
Baylor (8, 16)
Houston (14, 15)
Auburn (16, 9)
Duke (10, 22)
UCLA (15, 12)
Villanova (6, 30)
Illinois (20, 24)
UConn (25, 26)

We can absolutely make noise. The fact that we're not also elite in either means we're not likely to win it all, but we're formidable.
 
polycom said:
Basketball is fairly easy in modern era, if you make 3s you win. With a single exception to that Seton Hall... we win when our 3s go in.
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Nova both made more and at a better % than we did last game. But for UConn you're not far off. We usually dominate other facets of the game (rebounding, paint offense/defense), so this is the one area that we can get really bloodied on. If we don't get obliterated in the cat, then we should win the game.
 
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We are playing our best basketball in years. And we'll be in the tournament for the 2nd year in a row. That's a solid milestone. Tangible progress. That's 'good enough' for me.

A deep run in the tournament. Who knows. Still seems like a tall order. We are hot. Our guys a playing their ***** off. But if we were playing St. John's tomorrow with their PG back, I'd say it's a coin flip. I know I'm happy with our progress. Can't say I know much else.
 
How long until we start hearing James Bouknight and "Ewing Theory" in the same sentence?
 
bendm said:
we have up to 6 games left. 3 regular season and 3 BET if we make it to the finals (since we're guaranteed a top 5 BET seed).

if we win our next 3 and the BE tourney we could snag the last 3 seed.

if we win our next 3 and make it to the BE finals i think we're a 4.

if we win our next 3 and 1 game in the BET i think we're a 5 (which is our current projection).

if we lose to gtown or depaul or in the first round of the BET we should be a 6 (but if our sole loss is at creighton and we win 1 or 2 games in the BET we're still a 5).
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I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough. As of this morning Lunardi has us on 4 line. He has schools like Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois on the 3 line who honestly don't have that much different resumes than us.
 
4xChamps said:
I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough. As of this morning Lunardi has us on 4 line. He has schools like Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois on the 3 line who honestly don't have that much different resumes than us.
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A seven-loss team pulling a 2 seed?
 
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4xChamps said:
I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough. As of this morning Lunardi has us on 4 line. He has schools like Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois on the 3 line who honestly don't have that much different resumes than us.
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One could imagine a scenario in which we end up with an absolutely monster résumé heading into selection Sunday. We could be undefeated in our last 10 games with home and neutral wins over Nova and Xavier (or Seton Hall), road wins against St. John's and Creighton, and a neutral win over Providence in that span. Without trying to figure out what that scenario would entail NET-wise, suffice it to say that there would be quite a lot of Q1 and Q2 wins on the team sheet. No bad losses either. Are there 8 teams a better résumé? Probably not.

But, that scenario probably won't play out.
 
4xChamps said:
I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough.
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i dont see how we could possibly get a 2. next week we'll jump into the mid teens and nova will drop out of the top 10. they will then play PC so one of them will drop further in the rankings. we will end up having to play both to win the BET and they'll both probably be ranked in the low to mid teens. beating teams ranked right around where we are is maybe worth a 3 seed (ranked 9-12) not a 2 seed (ranked 5-8).
 
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bendm said:
i dont see how we could possibly get a 2. nova is going to drop to around ~15 next week. they will then play PC so one of them will drop even further in the rankings. we will end up having to play both to win the BET and they'll both probably be ranked in the mid to low teens. beating them is worth of a 3 seed (meaning we're ranked 9-12) not a 2 seed (ranked 5-8).
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That’s not how they do seeding
 
4xChamps said:
I think you're selling the resume short. If we win out we are easily a 3 seed and I think 2 could be in play although tough. As of this morning Lunardi has us on 4 line. He has schools like Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois on the 3 line who honestly don't have that much different resumes than us.
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A 2 seems hard to come by... our close missed opportunities earlier in the season might prevent that. 3 is easily possible with winning out. Don't forget other teams are going to win more games, too.
 
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