I think I'm more in your camp. Sure we can all see traits suggest a high upside, alongside traits that suggest she may never be a relevant member of a Uconn rotation. For me the sophomore year was a key and Amari didn't step up for whatever reason.
I'm sure if people racked their brains and went back far enough they could find examples of someone who did nothing in their first two years and then came on in their junior or senior year. I'm equally sure that when that did happen, it was the exception, not the rule, and very rare. The more logical conclusion is the opposite, that if you don't show much in the first two years it is not going to happen.
Sometimes you can blame a lack of playing time on tremendous competition, but Amar had opportunities in both seasons. In her first year we went with a very limited three big rotation. Even when Liv or Dorka was injured, small ball was often preferred to using Amari. In her second year neither she nor Ayanna played well enough to secure that third big role on a consistent basis, but if anything it was Ayanna not Amari, a very raw freshmen who also had a disappointing season. Opportunity was there for the taking and it didn't happen.
I hope I am wrong, but don't see much in the way of logic behind projecting Amari showing a dramatic improvement, just hope. Forgetting the possibility of Aaliyah starting at the 5, if you look at just Ice, Jana and Amari, I think Ice and Jana are close as dual favorites to start and Amari is a very distant third.