UConn future bets. Part 2.

[Tenspro2002]

Current hedge out is $800 on my +1300

$50 on the each of the long shots and $400 on Purdue. I’m letting it ride, but figured this was a good PSA.

View attachment 98696

If you got UConn +1300 and now have only 3 bets to make in order to hedge, it is very attractive now considering we're at like -200.

The other way you could do it is take one game at a time.

If you were in for $100 on UConn +1300 (to win $1400), you could put like $100 on Alabama +500 -- if we lose, you win $400; if we win, well, you're still in for $200 to win $1400 and now have the option to hedge Purdue with $500 at +160 or so (locking in a profit of $600-700).

 

[NEforceUConn]

Nooooo. Ride it. Cash out is for cowards. Especially with this team. I held on for dear life last year. No Cashout.

 

[ctbro1999]

I have 2 outstanding bets: 1 $30 at +2200 for the men winning it all ($690 payout) and $50 on a dual UConn men/women title bet at +11500 ($5.5k payout). If the women win tonight, I'll have to figure out how/if I want to hedge the dual bet. But I'm letting the men bet ride all the way.

 

[auror]

Yup have both at the same odds (+2300). Only $10 to win $230 on the title though. Also took Creighton and Marquette at +2000, which have unfortunately not aged as well.

I added a sprinkle on Purdue a couple weeks back when they were +750 to cover my futures expenditures (also had a sprinkle on Houston). I may add a bit more or a ML bet on Purdue if we play them in title game.

 

[ctbro1999]

Well then.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Well then.

5775 payout with the men around -200 and the women are +800, so your equity is around 7-8%, or around $400. So if you're got to start hedging, it would be around that amount. Fortunately, the women are a very reasonable small underdog against Iowa.

 

[nutmegger]

4 Picks Parlay+192092
KC Chiefs, UConn, South Carolina [W], BOS Celtics
Open
Wager: $10.00To Pay: $19,219.20


Jan 16, 2024, 12:24:05 AM

DK628407830349469745

 

[Greathusky]

I bet $10 on UConn months ago for a championship and will get $150.

 

[SubbaBub]

Not a degenerate gambler, but why would you be hedging the money line instead of hedging a piece of your potential futurres win on Bama, then the potential Final opponent to cover. At least you have a chance of winning both bets if UConn wins but doesn't cover.

If you paid 100 and are sitting on a potential 1200 winner, it would seem to make sense to hedge on each game to freeroll or guarantee a small profit on each.

 

[ctbro1999]

5775 payout with the men around -200 and the women are +800, so your equity is around 7-8%, or around $400. So if you're got to start hedging, it would be around that amount. Fortunately, the women are a very reasonable small underdog against Iowa.

So I made that bet more as a homer bet than anything else, and pretty much gave up on it after the womens' injuries and rough start. But now that they're both in the final 4, it's getting real! If I wanted to try and start hedging this bet to cash in at least something (ESPN BET hasn't offered early cashouts on this bet....they suck), how should I approach it?

 

[August_West]

I added a sprinkle on Purdue a couple weeks back when they were +750 to cover my futures expenditures (also had a sprinkle on Houston). I may add a bit more or a ML bet on Purdue if we play them in title game.

How much did you send in on Nova?

 

[Tenspro2002]

So I made that bet more as a homer bet than anything else, and pretty much gave up on it after the womens' injuries and rough start. But now that they're both in the final 4, it's getting real! If I wanted to try and start hedging this bet to cash in at least something (ESPN BET hasn't offered early cashouts on this bet....they suck), how should I approach it?

Geometrically.

You're in for 50 to win 5775. I already estimated that your equity is around 400. Iowa is -142 vs. the women on Friday.

1) If you bet 284 on Iowa -142, you're in for 334 to win 484 (+150) if Iowa wins.

Then consider the men on Saturday, where Alabama is +500.

2) If you bet 100 on Bama +500, you're in for 434 to win 600 (+166) if Bama wins.

Then we're back to the women on Sunday, where South Carolina would probably be -400 against us, NC State probably +100. This gets tricky.

3) Here you could bet either 2000 on SC or 500 on NC State. In the former scenario, you're in for 2434 to win 2500 (+66) or in the latter, 934 to win 1000 (+66).

Then we're back to the men on Monday. Purdue would be +200 against us. NC State like +600.

4) If you bet 1500 on Purdue, you'd be in for 3934 or 2434 to win 4500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+1841 or +3341). On NC State, if you go 500, you're in for 2934 or 1434 to win 3500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+2841 or +4341).

So it depends strongly on who advances, but you can create your own playbook to guarantee a payout. You could even hedge more in the earlier games but leave less of a payout at the end, it's up to you.

P.S. You should (almost) never ever ever ever take a cashout. Do the math and create your own hedge. It's cheaper.

 

[ctbro1999]

Geometrically.

You're in for 50 to win 5775. I already estimated that your equity is around 400. Iowa is -142 vs. the women on Friday.

1) If you bet 284 on Iowa -142, you're in for 334 to win 484 (+150) if Iowa wins.

Then consider the men on Saturday, where Alabama is +500.

2) If you bet 100 on Bama +500, you're in for 434 to win 600 (+166) if Bama wins.

Then we're back to the women on Sunday, where South Carolina would probably be -400 against us, NC State probably +100. This gets tricky.

3) Here you could bet either 2000 on SC or 500 on NC State. In the former scenario, you're in for 2434 to win 2500 (+66) or in the latter, 934 to win 1000 (+66).

Then we're back to the men on Monday. Purdue would be +200 against us. NC State like +600.

4) If you bet 1500 on Purdue, you'd be in for 3934 or 2434 to win 4500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+1841 or +3341). On NC State, if you go 500, you're in for 2934 or 1434 to win 3500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+2841 or +4341).

So it depends strongly on who advances, but you can create your own playbook to guarantee a payout. You could even hedge more in the earlier games but leave less of a payout at the end, it's up to you.

P.S. You should (almost) never ever ever ever take a cashout. Do the math and create your own hedge. It's cheaper.

Thanks for the in-depth advice. I'm gonna need a few to process everything you just typed. Lol

 

[Tenspro2002]

Not a degenerate gambler, but why would you be hedging the money line instead of hedging a piece of your potential futurres win on Bama, then the potential Final opponent to cover. At least you have a chance of winning both bets if UConn wins but doesn't cover.

If you paid 100 and are sitting on a potential 1200 winner, it would seem to make sense to hedge on each game to freeroll or guarantee a small profit on each.

I think that's what I'm advocating.

If you have a $100 bet on UConn +900 to win the championship (keeping numbers simple), you should bet like $100 on Bama +500.

You win 400 if Bama wins or you're still alive.

If you're still alive, you can go 300 on Purdue +200 (let's say), and then you're in for 500 to win 900 (profiting 400 on Purdue) or 1000 (profiting 500 on UConn).

If you want to be cute and bet Bama +11.5 to try to hit both, godspeed, but while it's possible to win both, you also leave the risk of under- or over-hedging the thing you actually care about (UConn winning).

 

[Tenspro2002]

Thanks for the in-depth advice. I'm gonna need a few to process everything you just typed. Lol

The other thing to consider, actually, is that we are the late game for both Final Fours, so you will actually know, 30 minutes before our Final Four games, which opponent we would get in the Final. This would affect your hedging.

For example, if NC State upsets South Carolina on the women's side, you should hedge Iowa a bit bigger, knowing that the price to hedge the women, if they advance to the championship game, will be a lot cheaper.

Ditto with NC State over Purdue on the men's side.

But are you willing to do the math and make 3-4-figure decisions in the 30 minutes before our tipoff?

 

[XLCenterFan]

Would love to have our opponent getting lots of points on Monday and just take the points hoping to win both. Best option I can see. Not taking any buy out.

 

[XLCenterFan]

View attachment 98698

Damn right. Dogecoin style. HODL.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Would love to have our opponent getting lots of points on Monday and just take the points hoping to win both. Best option I can see. Not taking any buy out.

It's a fair question. Say, if you have like 100 at +2400 on UConn to win the championship, and we're up against NC State +13.5 with a moneyline of -1000/+700 or whatever, do you:

A) Bet 1100 on NC State +13.5 at -110 (+1300 if UConn wins huge, +3400 if UConn wins small, +900 if NC State wins)
B) Bet 300 on NC State ML +700 (+2100 if UConn wins, +2000 if NC State wins)

I can see arguments either way, though I'd personally be inclined to go with B to lock in the bigger payout even though it eliminates the chances of a jackpot.

 

[NEforceUConn]

Damn right. Dogecoin style. HODL.

I was shooting for one from Dumb Money but couldn’t find one.

Not as good as that degenerate classic “Boiler Room” but still a good movie

 

[ctbro1999]

The other thing to consider, actually, is that we are the late game for both Final Fours, so you will actually know, 30 minutes before our Final Four games, which opponent we would get in the Final. This would affect your hedging.

For example, if NC State upsets South Carolina on the women's side, you should hedge Iowa a bit bigger, knowing that the price to hedge the women, if they advance to the championship game, will be a lot cheaper.

Ditto with NC State over Purdue on the men's side.

But are you willing to do the math and make 3-4-figure decisions in the 30 minutes before our tipoff?

I also have a $30 bet (+2200) on the UConn men winning it all, which nets $660 if they do. Taking "the field" is +155, so hedging $200 would guarantee a net payout of at least $310 if UConn loses, and $460 ($660-$200 hedge) if they win.
FWIW, DK is offering ~$370 to cash out right now. If I wanted to maximize min payout, upping the hedge bet to $259 would net $401, UConn win or lose.

But I'm pretty sure going with "the field" hedge bets is leaving money on the table.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I also have a $30 bet (+2200) on the UConn men winning it all, which nets $660 if they do. Taking "the field" is +155, so hedging $200 would guarantee a net payout of at least $310 if UConn loses, and $460 ($660-$200 hedge) if they win.
FWIW, DK is offering ~$370 to cash out right now. If I wanted to maximize min payout, upping the hedge bet to $259 would net $401, UConn win or lose.

But I'm pretty sure going with "the field" hedge bets is leaving money on the table.

Well that one is more straightforward.

30 to win 690 (including the original stake) on UConn, and now there's an offer of "the field" at +155 means you can hedge anywhere from zero through 270 (270 at +155 would have a total payout just shy of 690, which would be in for 300 and out for 690 for a total profit of 390).

By the way, you can see here how hedging yourself is cheaper than the cashout. A straightforward DIY hedge gives you a profit of 390, whereas the cashout profit is only 340 (370 - 30). Never cash out.

But yes, you could believe that UConn is going to get it done and ride it out, or hedge less. All are options.

Note that any non-boosted bet is nominally -EV, so hedging always costs you some EV, though of course it decreases the variance. That's a choice for the bettor.

 

[ctbro1999]

Well that one is more straightforward.

30 to win 690 (including the original stake) on UConn, and now there's an offer of "the field" at +155 means you can hedge anywhere from zero through 270 (270 at +155 would have a total payout just shy of 690, which would be in for 300 and out for 690 for a total profit of 390).

By the way, you can see here how hedging yourself is cheaper than the cashout. A straightforward DIY hedge gives you a profit of 390, whereas the cashout profit is only 340 (370 - 30). Never cash out.

But yes, you could believe that UConn is going to get it done and ride it out, or hedge less. All are options.

Note that any non-boosted bet is nominally -EV, so hedging always costs you some EV, though of course it decreases the variance. That's a choice for the bettor.

I'm actually considering doubling down on the men for the 'bama game like a true degenerate. lol
Line has moved up to -12.5 from opening at -11.5

 

[manbyrd]

Rolled some of my championship winnings into another one this year.

 

[BGesus4]

The best risk hedge available is drinking piss. You all need to get busy and hold up your end of the bargain.