UConn future bets. Part 2.

[August_West]

I added a sprinkle on Purdue a couple weeks back when they were +750 to cover my futures expenditures (also had a sprinkle on Houston). I may add a bit more or a ML bet on Purdue if we play them in title game.

How much did you send in on Nova?

 

[Tenspro2002]

So I made that bet more as a homer bet than anything else, and pretty much gave up on it after the womens' injuries and rough start. But now that they're both in the final 4, it's getting real! If I wanted to try and start hedging this bet to cash in at least something (ESPN BET hasn't offered early cashouts on this bet....they suck), how should I approach it?

Geometrically.

You're in for 50 to win 5775. I already estimated that your equity is around 400. Iowa is -142 vs. the women on Friday.

1) If you bet 284 on Iowa -142, you're in for 334 to win 484 (+150) if Iowa wins.

Then consider the men on Saturday, where Alabama is +500.

2) If you bet 100 on Bama +500, you're in for 434 to win 600 (+166) if Bama wins.

Then we're back to the women on Sunday, where South Carolina would probably be -400 against us, NC State probably +100. This gets tricky.

3) Here you could bet either 2000 on SC or 500 on NC State. In the former scenario, you're in for 2434 to win 2500 (+66) or in the latter, 934 to win 1000 (+66).

Then we're back to the men on Monday. Purdue would be +200 against us. NC State like +600.

4) If you bet 1500 on Purdue, you'd be in for 3934 or 2434 to win 4500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+1841 or +3341). On NC State, if you go 500, you're in for 2934 or 1434 to win 3500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+2841 or +4341).

So it depends strongly on who advances, but you can create your own playbook to guarantee a payout. You could even hedge more in the earlier games but leave less of a payout at the end, it's up to you.

P.S. You should (almost) never ever ever ever take a cashout. Do the math and create your own hedge. It's cheaper.

 

[ctbro1999]

Geometrically.

You're in for 50 to win 5775. I already estimated that your equity is around 400. Iowa is -142 vs. the women on Friday.

1) If you bet 284 on Iowa -142, you're in for 334 to win 484 (+150) if Iowa wins.

Then consider the men on Saturday, where Alabama is +500.

2) If you bet 100 on Bama +500, you're in for 434 to win 600 (+166) if Bama wins.

Then we're back to the women on Sunday, where South Carolina would probably be -400 against us, NC State probably +100. This gets tricky.

3) Here you could bet either 2000 on SC or 500 on NC State. In the former scenario, you're in for 2434 to win 2500 (+66) or in the latter, 934 to win 1000 (+66).

Then we're back to the men on Monday. Purdue would be +200 against us. NC State like +600.

4) If you bet 1500 on Purdue, you'd be in for 3934 or 2434 to win 4500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+1841 or +3341). On NC State, if you go 500, you're in for 2934 or 1434 to win 3500 (+566 or +2066) or 5775 (+2841 or +4341).

So it depends strongly on who advances, but you can create your own playbook to guarantee a payout. You could even hedge more in the earlier games but leave less of a payout at the end, it's up to you.

P.S. You should (almost) never ever ever ever take a cashout. Do the math and create your own hedge. It's cheaper.

Thanks for the in-depth advice. I'm gonna need a few to process everything you just typed. Lol

 

[Tenspro2002]

Not a degenerate gambler, but why would you be hedging the money line instead of hedging a piece of your potential futurres win on Bama, then the potential Final opponent to cover. At least you have a chance of winning both bets if UConn wins but doesn't cover.

If you paid 100 and are sitting on a potential 1200 winner, it would seem to make sense to hedge on each game to freeroll or guarantee a small profit on each.

I think that's what I'm advocating.

If you have a $100 bet on UConn +900 to win the championship (keeping numbers simple), you should bet like $100 on Bama +500.

You win 400 if Bama wins or you're still alive.

If you're still alive, you can go 300 on Purdue +200 (let's say), and then you're in for 500 to win 900 (profiting 400 on Purdue) or 1000 (profiting 500 on UConn).

If you want to be cute and bet Bama +11.5 to try to hit both, godspeed, but while it's possible to win both, you also leave the risk of under- or over-hedging the thing you actually care about (UConn winning).

 

[Tenspro2002]

Thanks for the in-depth advice. I'm gonna need a few to process everything you just typed. Lol

The other thing to consider, actually, is that we are the late game for both Final Fours, so you will actually know, 30 minutes before our Final Four games, which opponent we would get in the Final. This would affect your hedging.

For example, if NC State upsets South Carolina on the women's side, you should hedge Iowa a bit bigger, knowing that the price to hedge the women, if they advance to the championship game, will be a lot cheaper.

Ditto with NC State over Purdue on the men's side.

But are you willing to do the math and make 3-4-figure decisions in the 30 minutes before our tipoff?

 

[XLCenterFan]

Would love to have our opponent getting lots of points on Monday and just take the points hoping to win both. Best option I can see. Not taking any buy out.

 

[XLCenterFan]

View attachment 98698

Damn right. Dogecoin style. HODL.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Would love to have our opponent getting lots of points on Monday and just take the points hoping to win both. Best option I can see. Not taking any buy out.

It's a fair question. Say, if you have like 100 at +2400 on UConn to win the championship, and we're up against NC State +13.5 with a moneyline of -1000/+700 or whatever, do you:

A) Bet 1100 on NC State +13.5 at -110 (+1300 if UConn wins huge, +3400 if UConn wins small, +900 if NC State wins)
B) Bet 300 on NC State ML +700 (+2100 if UConn wins, +2000 if NC State wins)

I can see arguments either way, though I'd personally be inclined to go with B to lock in the bigger payout even though it eliminates the chances of a jackpot.

 

[NEforceUConn]

Damn right. Dogecoin style. HODL.

I was shooting for one from Dumb Money but couldn’t find one.

Not as good as that degenerate classic “Boiler Room” but still a good movie

 

[tedsdrunk]

I’m late to the party but I have some fun ones

Have Purdue parlay too and a few more dual championship parlays

 

[ctbro1999]

The other thing to consider, actually, is that we are the late game for both Final Fours, so you will actually know, 30 minutes before our Final Four games, which opponent we would get in the Final. This would affect your hedging.

For example, if NC State upsets South Carolina on the women's side, you should hedge Iowa a bit bigger, knowing that the price to hedge the women, if they advance to the championship game, will be a lot cheaper.

Ditto with NC State over Purdue on the men's side.

But are you willing to do the math and make 3-4-figure decisions in the 30 minutes before our tipoff?

I also have a $30 bet (+2200) on the UConn men winning it all, which nets $660 if they do. Taking "the field" is +155, so hedging $200 would guarantee a net payout of at least $310 if UConn loses, and $460 ($660-$200 hedge) if they win.
FWIW, DK is offering ~$370 to cash out right now. If I wanted to maximize min payout, upping the hedge bet to $259 would net $401, UConn win or lose.

But I'm pretty sure going with "the field" hedge bets is leaving money on the table.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I also have a $30 bet (+2200) on the UConn men winning it all, which nets $660 if they do. Taking "the field" is +155, so hedging $200 would guarantee a net payout of at least $310 if UConn loses, and $460 ($660-$200 hedge) if they win.
FWIW, DK is offering ~$370 to cash out right now. If I wanted to maximize min payout, upping the hedge bet to $259 would net $401, UConn win or lose.

But I'm pretty sure going with "the field" hedge bets is leaving money on the table.

Well that one is more straightforward.

30 to win 690 (including the original stake) on UConn, and now there's an offer of "the field" at +155 means you can hedge anywhere from zero through 270 (270 at +155 would have a total payout just shy of 690, which would be in for 300 and out for 690 for a total profit of 390).

By the way, you can see here how hedging yourself is cheaper than the cashout. A straightforward DIY hedge gives you a profit of 390, whereas the cashout profit is only 340 (370 - 30). Never cash out.

But yes, you could believe that UConn is going to get it done and ride it out, or hedge less. All are options.

Note that any non-boosted bet is nominally -EV, so hedging always costs you some EV, though of course it decreases the variance. That's a choice for the bettor.

 

[ctbro1999]

Well that one is more straightforward.

30 to win 690 (including the original stake) on UConn, and now there's an offer of "the field" at +155 means you can hedge anywhere from zero through 270 (270 at +155 would have a total payout just shy of 690, which would be in for 300 and out for 690 for a total profit of 390).

By the way, you can see here how hedging yourself is cheaper than the cashout. A straightforward DIY hedge gives you a profit of 390, whereas the cashout profit is only 340 (370 - 30). Never cash out.

But yes, you could believe that UConn is going to get it done and ride it out, or hedge less. All are options.

Note that any non-boosted bet is nominally -EV, so hedging always costs you some EV, though of course it decreases the variance. That's a choice for the bettor.

I'm actually considering doubling down on the men for the 'bama game like a true degenerate. lol
Line has moved up to -12.5 from opening at -11.5

 

[manbyrd]

Rolled some of my championship winnings into another one this year.

 

[BGesus4]

The best risk hedge available is drinking piss. You all need to get busy and hold up your end of the bargain.

 

[JayKoz]

I also have a $30 bet (+2200) on the UConn men winning it all, which nets $660 if they do. Taking "the field" is +155, so hedging $200 would guarantee a net payout of at least $310 if UConn loses, and $460 ($660-$200 hedge) if they win.
FWIW, DK is offering ~$370 to cash out right now. If I wanted to maximize min payout, upping the hedge bet to $259 would net $401, UConn win or lose.

But I'm pretty sure going with "the field" hedge bets is leaving money on the table.

It’s $30, let it ride. I honestly don’t care about quantity either, I would not hedge anything right now, but that’s me.

 

[JayKoz]

Rolled some of my championship winnings into another one this year.


View attachment 98817

This one would concern me. I hate cash outs but sheesh… I’d be dialed in during the game and find a way to make $1k at minimum.

 

[Tuna]

It's a fair question. Say, if you have like 100 at +2400 on UConn to win the championship, and we're up against NC State +13.5 with a moneyline of -1000/+700 or whatever, do you:

A) Bet 1100 on NC State +13.5 at -110 (+1300 if UConn wins huge, +3400 if UConn wins small, +900 if NC State wins)
B) Bet 300 on NC State ML +700 (+2100 if UConn wins, +2000 if NC State wins)

I can see arguments either way, though I'd personally be inclined to go with B to lock in the bigger payout even though it eliminates the chances of a jackpot.

You are completely ignoring the happiness equity derived from a UConn win no matter how much they win by. Any additional money lost betting on the spread instead of the ML is easily offset by celebrating a 6th national championship.

 

[KembaRunner]

Part 2 because we did this last year. And we all won. Only made us more spoiled and arrogant. Hope you got your bets in early because we might be even money at this point. Let’s see em boys and girls. I know some of you degens have one bigger than this. Doomed. View attachment 96628

I was in Vegas in the summer of 2013 and put 100 bucks on uconn to win it at at 36.5-1 odds.

Was up big at the poker tables and still can’t believe I didn’t put 1,000 on them

 

[Tenspro2002]

You are completely ignoring the happiness equity derived from a UConn win no matter how much they win by. Any additional money lost betting on the spread instead of the ML is easily offset by celebrating a 6th national championship.

I would actually argue the opposite. The emotional equity means you should be more willing to offset it by hedging the moneyline.

 

[XLCenterFan]

It's a fair question. Say, if you have like 100 at +2400 on UConn to win the championship, and we're up against NC State +13.5 with a moneyline of -1000/+700 or whatever, do you:

A) Bet 1100 on NC State +13.5 at -110 (+1300 if UConn wins huge, +3400 if UConn wins small, +900 if NC State wins)
B) Bet 300 on NC State ML +700 (+2100 if UConn wins, +2000 if NC State wins)

I can see arguments either way, though I'd personally be inclined to go with B to lock in the bigger payout even though it eliminates the chances of a jackpot.

My thinking is I do not want to win more off a UConn loss than a win. I also am looking to only get a small “refund” or “rebate” should we lose. Not looking to win the same amount regardless of outcome. I am a gambler after all, and would like a little sweat out of the game.

Pretty sure I’ll take the points for an amount that will let me win around $2000 if we win, $1000 if we lose, and $3000 if we win and the underdog covers.

 

[XLCenterFan]

I was in Vegas in the summer of 2013 and put 100 bucks on uconn to win it at at 36.5-1 odds.

Was up big at the poker tables and still can’t believe I didn’t put 1,000 on them

Future bets are extremely hard to hit and hindsight is 20/20.

 

[ctbro1999]

It’s $30, let it ride. I honestly don’t care about quantity either, I would not hedge anything right now, but that’s me.

Yeah, honestly, I'm so confident in the men (as long as they make it to the stadium to play lol) I don't think I'm even gonna bother hedging them. I really don't see us losing to Alabama, and unless Clingan gets in foul trouble and Edey goes off for 40+, I don't see us losing to Purdue either (assuming they beat NCSU).

But I am gonna hedge the dual title bet as the odds of that one actually paying off are much lower.

 

[Tenspro2002]

My thinking is I do not want to win more off a UConn loss than a win. I also am looking to only get a small “refund” or “rebate” should we lose. Not looking to win the same amount regardless of outcome. I am a gambler after all, and would like a little sweat out of the game.

Pretty sure I’ll take the points for an amount that will let me win around $2000 if we win, $1000 if we lose, and $3000 if we win and the underdog covers.

That is an entirely reasonable way to play it.

I have enough emotional "sweat" as it is that if it's me I'd prefer to balance the money, but that's the beauty of getting to choose these things.

 

[XLCenterFan]

That is an entirely reasonable way to play it.

I have enough emotional "sweat" as it is that if it's me I'd prefer to balance the money, but that's the beauty of getting to choose these things.

Your insight on this thread is greatly appreciated. You know what you’re talking about and are great with the numbers. Thanks.

 

[ctbro1999]

I hedged the men with a +165 Field bet (Caesar's was offering +165...all the other books +155 or under) with $100, but I feel like it's gonna end up being a waste of $100 (I certainly hope so).

I've decided I'm not gonna hedge my dual title bet unless both teams make the finals. MAYBE I'll toss a last minute hedge on Iowa winning tonight, but that's it.

 

[ctbro1999]

Wow, looks like tons of late money coming in on Iowa. Line's gone from -145 to -170 the last couple hours.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Didn’t post earlier for mojo purposes but…

 

[XLCenterFan]

Cash those tickets!! Let’s gooooooo.