UConn and its bracket - the first two rounds at Gampel

[Doctor G]

Today's discussion question: Is KK better today than Chen was at this point last year? Compare and contrast.

Bonus question: Is Heckel better today than KK was at this point last year?

Chen was a high-scoring, Ivy champion and league MVP who successfully molded her game to the team's needs by the end of last season. She was a model guard in the system because she was coachable, skilled, confident and curious and could run the offense with the right tempo or play the 2 if the offense was running through Paige, successfully operating in the space created by the gravity of the big three.

By then end of the year, like Paige, Chen placed a high value on possession. In fact, in the final-four she had no TO's in either game. That said, she was not as aggressive last year as KK is on both ends of the floor this year (see, for example, the Villanova demolition job). Some might say that KK's outside shot this year is not better than Chen's was last year. Chen had a reliable stop and pop but KK is obviously still working on that this year. Taking continued improvement in her 3 ball for granted, when KK finally learns to decelerate and reliable hit the stop and pop she will become unguardable (see, also, Big Fish)

KK learned the value of the ball from watching Paige and Chen last year and it shows. Last year, she was THE game-changer off the bench, without question. Her confidence and her energy were -- and will always be -- infectious. This year, I believe the coaches have figured out that KK plays best when she doesn't worry about conserving energy so they play her in sprints - which helped her settle into the starting groove and increased her two-way aggression.

K-9 is a more complete offensive player this year than KK was at this time last year (hits some three's with good form, has a stop and pop, is a natural cutter who can run the pick and roll, and is the winner of the looks-complicated-but-nevertheless-the-ball-went-into-the-hoop driving contest (she also ends up on the deck at a pace Jennifer RIzzotti and Nika Muhl would bless); however, she is neither the game-changing, tempo setting, defensive force off the bench that KK was last year nor the nasty 1v1 player in a 5 out that KK showed herself to be against, for example, SC in the championship game last year (and that's okay). Don't get me wrong, K9 can clearly get to the hoop but her drives are not as physically imposing as KK's filth. I can't quite put my finger on it but I believe K9 is better at running sets and actions this year than KK was last year (there is little question that the thought of KK in transition with Azzi, Strong and Blanca is a nightmare for opposing coach). KK, of course, has had her ups and downs but overall has clearly taken her game to another level this year in terms of floor leadership and game and tempo management.

Like Paige and Chen before them, KK and K9 are coachable, skilled, aggressive teammates who are always prepared to do whatever the team needs to win in a 3 guard rotation. In my opinion, they are the best starting and back up PG duo in the nation in a 3 (and sometime 4) guard rotation. With any luck, they'll have 6 more games to prove it.

 

[Phil]

Last weekend, after the selections were announced, ESPN ran a ribbon at the bottom of the screen, offering odds on various teams reaching various levels of the tournament (getting past the first round, reaching SS, EE, FF, etc.). E.g., UTSA's chance of reaching the round of 32 was 0.1%. For the better teams, odds were given on winning it all. I forget what South Carolina's chances were, but Texas was given a 13% chance of winning it all; UCLA 14%; UConn 48%! So what was all this debate about UConn vs UCLA being the #1 overall?

A couple of things.

There a lot of UConn fatigue, which is understandable.

There are a lot of adjectives which can be used to describe UConn fans, and humble isn't near the top of the list.

The 48% is an ESPN number. I have no clue about how it's calculated but I do know a little bit about Nate Silver's model, which if I I thought had about a 35% but I just looked it up 40.2% I see it's higher than I remember, but that still translates into worse than a coin flip.

The selection committee identifies a number of metrics they look at, and it's natural for fans of any particular team, or fans of ABUC (anybody but UConn) to emphasize the metrics that best make the case.

As an additional benefit for those arguing in favor of UCLA, it's helpful that one of the metrics in favor of UConn is NET, while Quad one wins favors. NCAA says that the NET of UConn is better than that of UCLA, but they don't give you the numbers, so you don't know whether it's by a lot or a little. For all we know it could be rounding error. No one can explain exactly what NET means, so it's hard to use it as a solid argument. In contrast, is close to trivial to define quad one wins, and the disparity between UCLA UConn seems pretty dramatic. The quad system is extremely coarse.

Beat number 25 at home in a buzzer beater and it's worth exactly the same as beating the number one team in the country by 20. How is that remotely reasonable?
Beat number 25 at home in a buzzer beater and it's worth a lot more beating number 26 at home by 20 points.
Beat number 25 at home in a buzzer beater and it's a quad 1 win unless that opponent goes on to stumble and lose a couple and drops out of the top 25.

But surely the UCLA supporters will say, the vast number of quad one opponents of UCLA and the top in the nation strength of schedule is worth a lot!

The UCLA supporters will downplay the fact that the weaker strength of schedule of UConn and the fewer quad one wins are all incorporated into the NET calculation and it still favors UConn.

I'm not at all surprised that so many people are trying to find ways to argue that someone other than you, deserves to be the top overall team.

 

[Gus Mahler]

Chen was a high-scoring, Ivy champion and league MVP who successfully molded her game to the team's needs by the end of last season. She was a model guard in the system because she was coachable, skilled, confident and curious and could run the offense with the right tempo or play the 2 if the offense was running through Paige, successfully operating in the space created by the gravity of the big three.

By then end of the year, like Paige, Chen placed a high value on possession. In fact, in the final-four she had no TO's in either game. That said, she was not as aggressive last year as KK is on both ends of the floor this year (see, for example, the Villanova demolition job). Some might say that KK's outside shot this year is not better than Chen's was last year. Chen had a reliable stop and pop but KK is obviously still working on that this year. Taking continued improvement in her 3 ball for granted, when KK finally learns to decelerate and reliable hit the stop and pop she will become unguardable (see, also, Big Fish)

KK learned the value of the ball from watching Paige and Chen last year and it shows. Last year, she was THE game-changer off the bench, without question. Her confidence and her energy were -- and will always be -- infectious. This year, I believe the coaches have figured out that KK plays best when she doesn't worry about conserving energy so they play her in sprints - which helped her settle into the starting groove and increased her two-way aggression.

K-9 is a more complete offensive player this year than KK was at this time last year (hits some three's with good form, has a stop and pop, is a natural cutter who can run the pick and roll, and is the winner of the looks-complicated-but-nevertheless-the-ball-went-into-the-hoop driving contest (she also ends up on the deck at a pace Jennifer RIzzotti and Nika Muhl would bless); however, she is neither the game-changing, tempo setting, defensive force off the bench that KK was last year nor the nasty 1v1 player in a 5 out that KK showed herself to be against, for example, SC in the championship game last year (and that's okay). Don't get me wrong, K9 can clearly get to the hoop but her drives are not as physically imposing as KK's filth. I can't quite put my finger on it but I believe K9 is better at running sets and actions this year than KK was last year (there is little question that the thought of KK in transition with Azzi, Strong and Blanca is a nightmare for opposing coach). KK, of course, has had her ups and downs but overall has clearly taken her game to another level this year in terms of floor leadership and game and tempo management.

Like Paige and Chen before them, KK and K9 are coachable, skilled, aggressive teammates who are always prepared to do whatever the team needs to win in a 3 guard rotation. In my opinion, they are the best starting and back up PG duo in the nation in a 3 (and sometime 4) guard rotation. With any luck, they'll have 6 more games to prove it.

Wow. Great analysis, great post. Thanks.

 

[H Dog]

Today's discussion question: Is KK better today than Chen was at this point last year? Compare and contrast.

Bonus question: Is Heckel better today than KK was at this point last year?

Easy to answer: Yes and No. I believe KK was better than Chen last year and she performed her best in the Final Four and this year she has improved significantly to Tue point where she’s the best pure all around and most efficient PG in the country.

 

[fomalhaut]

If you don't stay a season are you a former Husky? I know we were hurting some, but I always felt activating Saylor was a mistake. She could have been so fine.

She played 12 games, so yes. I wouldn't call Elena Delle Donne a former Husky, though.

 

[Zarathustra]

Today's discussion question: Is KK better today than Chen was at this point last year? Compare and contrast.

Bonus question: Is Heckel better today than KK was at this point last year?

I think of this as a difference in "STYLES". IMHO Chen was the
style player that GENO needed last year, KK is the style that
the Huskies need this year. So, I can't see a real reason for a "better than"
distinction. As for K9 vs KK. They are both exceptional defensive
players (a clear edge to KK), but offensively I see an edge to
Kayleigh for her intermediate scoring threats. The real question
(that I would pose) is "Who finds the most IMPACKFUL way to
hit the hardwood"?? My answer: KK wins "by a nose", but that
K9 gets all the "style points"!! I love this discussion!!! GO HUSKIES!

 

[Horsebrnhil]

Audi is generously listed as 6-3, she just plays bigger.

....like 'wider'. Her play in the paint, to me anyway, is not impressive. Gets the ball low, basically pushes, and bullies underneath. That's NOT basketball. Too slow, her game will never translate to the WNBA. Even European game as well. Give me the complete game of Sarah, and Azzi any day. That's basketball

 

[HuskyNan]

The Governor of Massachusetts appears to be a fan

 

[HuskyNan]

👀👀

 

[oldude]

👀👀

Every year somebody makes a case that somebody got screwed in their bracket. Honestly, it’s a tiresome exercise. The process was well understood by everyone before Selection Sunday, so much so that Charlie Creme got the top 8 teams completely correct.

I think UConn will roll through their region to the final four. This joker highlights tOSU, a team UConn beat by 30. As for UCLA, I keep hearing that they have both Duke & LSU in their region. But nobody mentions that those teams have to play each other before they get the opportunity to play UCLA.

There is this thing that goes on every year for some that seems to suggest that no really good team should have to play any other team that’s any good. That’s not how the NCAA Tournament works. I will continue to remind everyone that UConn beat down 3 x #1’s on their way to the championship last season, and as a UConn fan that was as good as it gets.

 

[browns]

Easy to answer: Yes and No. I believe KK was better than Chen last year and she performed her best in the Final Four and this year she has improved significantly to Tue point where she’s the best pure all around and most efficient PG in the country.

Not even close..Hammon..,Hildago..an Miles are all better offensive an defensive players than KK an better passes too

 

[BobbyJ]

The Governor of Massachusetts appears to be a fan

A former 3 year starter at PG for Harvard and two year pro.

Former Harvard co-captain, professional basketball player Maura Healey elected governor of Massachusetts

Healey is also the first open lesbian to be elected governor in the U.S.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[oldude]

Not even close..Hammon..,Hildago..an Miles are all better offensive an defensive players than KK an better passes too

By Hammon, I assume you mean Harmon, and no she is not a better offensive and defensive player than KK. KK is a better shooter, has a better A/TO ratio (2nd in the nation) and has more steals than Harmon. Harmon shoots slightly better from 3, on far fewer attempts and she is a slightly better foul shooter.

The fact that the two players are remarkably similar makes the best case that KK is deserving of honorable mention AA recognition.

 

[Bone Dog]

Not even close..Hammon..,Hildago..an Miles are all better offensive an defensive players than KK an better passes too

Perhaps it’s closer than you think, at least for Harmon and KK.

The promise Rory showed as a freshman was wonderful. On an offensively challenged Texas team, she carried them pretty far. The upset of Stanford that season put them on the map and was engineered almost single-handedly by Rory. Her first step was like lightning, comparable to Hannah or even MoJeff, and her midrange game was money. Injury slowed her a bit, but her confidence is still in evidence most games. Vic also pulled her from a few games when the team stalled.

KK is only discovering that same level of confidence now, with the quickness to use it to great advantage. It shows in her passing and the way she manages UConn’s transition game, which is the scalpel of the offense in Storrs. It’s true that KK’s midrange game is not there yet, but her passing is better. She belongs in the same conversation this year, and may rise above it next season.

As for Miles and Hidalgo, they are clearly greater offensive talents than KK. I’d call them superstars. Olivia will be drafted much higher than KK or Hannah or Rory, and has a higher ceiling at the next level than all of them. But I think PGs who are also leading scorers on their teams don’t quite fit the category perfectly. In particular, the overlooked part of the position is their role on defense. A PG has to be the tip of the spear, but also has to manage team balance on offense to choke off opponents’ transition opportunities. KK does this better than the rest. Hannah is a flashier defender but not a better on-ball defender, since a significant part of Hannah’s gaudier stats come from blindside double teams. She’s an incredible weapon in this respect, but this defensive tactic can also cost her team on the other side in open backcuts and uncontested shots elsewhere. I’d also add that KK has defended Hannah well in their head-to-head meetings — she got hot from 3 in the first game but scored only once inside the perimeter.

So, yes, I’d put KK no higher than third in this group, but with the caveats listed above. And all of this leaves team context out of consideration. KK is very likely, with Kayleigh’s able assistance, to pilot her team to another NC. It may not be an accident that those high-scoring PGs have never gotten within sniffing distance of a national title.