UConn -5.5 Creighton | The Boneyard

UConn -5.5 Creighton

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UConn opens 5.5 point favorites on DraftKings. Over/Under 142.
 
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Feels a little high. It is close to the Xavier spread, a little higher even, which I'm surprised by. Guessing homecourt makes the difference. I wonder how much Clingan possibly returning is a factor. Feels like a stay-away for me, at least the spread. I think it's going to be lower scoring, which makes a 6-point win even harder.
 
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My immediate thought was OVER....it'll probably go under.
We do tend to get into rock fights with Creighton. The only time we went over that listed number was the first meeting, 76-74 Creighton W (Bouk’s 40 point game). Otherwise, 50s and 60s.
 
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I have seen SO many Big East lines open -5.5 this year... More than any year I can remember.
 

HuskyHawk

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My immediate thought was OVER....it'll probably go under.
I watched the Georgetown game at a Casino sportsbook. Showing my friend how the Kiosk works, I pulled up the game 15 minutes before start. UConn -12.5....hell no. So I bet the over for kicks. 145. Final was 147. That was stressful, because the start of the game made me think I had no chance. Then it seemed in the bag, then nobody scored for like 5 minutes.

I think I'm done betting the over.
 
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I have seen SO many Big East lines open -5.5 this year... More than any year I can remember.
5 is a key number for basketball spreads. Hits more often than most due to late game fouling.
 
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I watched the Georgetown game at a Casino sportsbook. Showing my friend how the Kiosk works, I pulled up the game 15 minutes before start. UConn -12.5....hell no. So I bet the over for kicks. 145. Final was 147. That was stressful, because the start of the game made me think I had no chance. Then it seemed in the bag, then nobody scored for like 5 minutes.

I think I'm done betting the over.
Betting unders is even more perilous to your emotions.
 

HuskyHawk

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Betting unders is even more perilous to your emotions.
How? At the start, you're winning. And you're winning until you aren't. With over, you're losing until the last seconds.
 
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You can win an over early, you can't ever win an under until the final whistle and there's often a lot of points scored in the last 2 minutes due to fouling. And then... sometimes overtime. Shudder.
plus every free throw feels like a jab to the face and every 3 pointer feels like a hard hit to the face. It's similar in football when betting the under and you see a 30 yard completion.
 
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You can win an over early, you can't ever win an under until the final whistle and there's often a lot of points scored in the last 2 minutes due to fouling. And then... sometimes overtime. Shudder.
I lost an Under bet last week because of overtime. It was 70-70 in the final minute, I had Under 145.5. I literally just needed somebody to make a shot, and they didn't.

The Under can actually be very relaxing if they get off to a slow pace. If you follow the live lines, you have a decent sense of where you're at relative to the pre-game total.
 
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plus every free throw feels like a jab to the face and every 3 pointer feels like a hard hit to the face. It's similar in football when betting the under and you see a 30 yard completion.
But imagine the joy of a shot clock violation, a missed front end, or a 3 that clangs high off the rim into the soft hands of the defense.

Betting the Over is excruciating when nobody can make a shot or when possessions take 28 seconds.
 

HuskyHawk

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But imagine the joy of a shot clock violation, a missed front end, or a 3 that clangs high off the rim into the soft hands of the defense.

Betting the Over is excruciating when nobody can make a shot or when possessions take 28 seconds.
Yeah, that was the stretch vs Georgetown. I swear both teams turned it over like 4-5 times in a row, couldn't score, got fouled, missed the front end, it went on for several minutes and the score didn't move. I cared way more about winning the game than my $10, but still. They we got the rebound twice late to burn more clock, before Newton FTs finally put us over.
 

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