UConn - 1.5 v. Nova

[Zissou]

I had live bets on Nova ML (lost, happily), Nova +9.5 and Nova +12.5 (bet when we took a big early lead and knew it wouldn't hold up on the road and won easily) so avoided any of this pregame spread nonsense.

Looks good in hind sight. At 10 minutes to play I was uncertain whether Nova would battle to the end or fade away (like vs Marquette). Good logic and winning bet for you, but far from a sure thing.

 

[Nostical]

Why subject yourself to an ending like last night's?

Why buy a stock when you could buy a fixed rate bond? Betting is about having an opinion and being willing to back it up. Being anxious toward the end of any game is what makes the whole process worth the effort. It’s the sweaty palms, not just the money, that are the rewards for putting your opinion to the test. And when the wild half court three misses at the end there’s exhilaration, and if it crazily happens to go in and you unbelievably lose the bet—it’s a bad beat story you’ll tell at the bar next week and far beyond.

 

[The Yakk]

Why buy a stock when you could buy a fixed rate bond? Betting is about having an opinion and being willing to back it up. Being anxious toward the end of any game is what makes the whole process worth the effort. It’s the sweaty palms, not just the money, that are the rewards for putting your opinion to the test. And when the wild half court three misses at the end there’s exhilaration, and if it crazily happens to go in and you unbelievably lose the bet—it’s a bad beat story you’ll tell at the bar next week and far beyond.

Agree 100%.

Everyone has his own reason for betting. I was just explaining how a team-first bettor like UConn Trumbull could have a legitimate reason to prefer the money line.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I mean, there are some cases where it's absolutely worthwhile to bet the spread instead of the moneyline, but -1.5 is not it lol

Oh absolutely. If the spread is 5.5-6.5 or more then I totally get it. I should’ve been more specific. To me -1.5 is not worth it versus ML. Even 2-2.5 I usually take ML.

 

[JayKoz]

I just mean I think people prefer spread because it’s the closest thing to a 50/50 bet yet the psychology of sports is more tailored to ML. Did UConn care that Nova hit that half court shot? Probably not. That’s the difference between ML and spread already.

Yeah, but the more you bet on -130/-140 money lines, the higher percentage of bets you need to win just to break even.

-110 lines? You need 52.4% to break even. You increase that? I say good luck making money in the long run. You’re just giving the house a bigger edge.

-1.5 wasn’t available for long, that thing dashed to 3.5. Ended up being the same exact result.

I’d wager whatever you’d like that after a season of taking -130+ odds, you won’t make money.

 

[Rich]

SOMEBODY GET STANFORD STEVE ON THE LINE.

This should lead the segment Monday LOL

 

[The Yakk]

Yeah, but the more you bet on -130/-140 money lines, the higher percentage of bets you need to win just to break even.

-110 lines? You need 52.4% to break even. You increase that? I say good luck making money in the long run. You’re just giving the house a bigger edge.

-1.5 wasn’t available for long, that thing dashed to 3.5. Ended up being the same exact result.

I’d wager whatever you’d like that after a season of taking -130+ odds, you won’t make money.

You are assuming he only bets the favorites. What if he bets the underdogs?



In reality, nothing is so simple in gambling that it can be reduced to a simple rule.

"Always bet the money line if you like the favorite and the spread is 1.5". Yuck.

"Never bet the favorite on the money line because you get paid less." Yuck, ptooey.

In truth, the only way to be a long-term winner is to make your best estimate for the outcome of the game--or even better, the range of potential outcomes--and make the bet that gives the best value. Might be the money line, might be the underdog to cover, whatever. Everything else is betting by feel or emotion.

Nothing wrong with betting by emotion, by the way. The thrill is an important part of it for many people. I love Nostical's comments above.