UConn - 1.5 v. Nova

[Chin Diesel]

The Duke Final Four game in 2004 was literally the exact same scenario.

This is the correct answer for UConn fans and unless it happens in a championship game, it will always be the right answer.

 

[Nostical]

I had it at -3.5. As the game moved into its final stages I was resigned to losing the bet, and just hoped we didn’t blow the game! Then when Newton gave us the 4 point lead with 4 secs left, I suddenly had an unexpected chance of covering and was thrilled watching them hoist that low percentage half court shot at the end.Then bam—absolutely stunned to see it go in. All I could do was shake my head at another SVP Bad Beat!

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I don’t get what you’re saying. There’s vig on the ml too, of course. You’re essentially just buying the points. There isn’t some secret arbitrage opportunity that Vegas has missed.

I just mean I think people prefer spread because it’s the closest thing to a 50/50 bet yet the psychology of sports is more tailored to ML. Did UConn care that Nova hit that half court shot? Probably not. That’s the difference between ML and spread already.

 

[willie99]

The exact same thing happened to me in the Final Four 2004, UConn vs Dook, meaningless long three at the end results in a 1 point victory, spread was 1.5

My buddy and I were joking about taking Dook +1.5, since we were in SA, that would be somewhat of a reprieve.

Little did we know, would could have had the both of best worlds. The win of course, was by far the most important thing.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

From another thread:

I see this as a good omen. We had one point wins under identical circumstances (prayer three at the buzzer when we were up four) in the 2004 national semifinal win against Duke and again in the 2011 national semifinal win against Kentucky. I believe it signifies an imminent national title on the horizon.

 

[The Yakk]

I don’t get what you’re saying. There’s vig on the ml too, of course. You’re essentially just buying the points. There isn’t some secret arbitrage opportunity that Vegas has missed.

If you are betting to win money, then you are absolutely right. Do your analysis and bet where you get the greatest value. And you have to be ice cold and merciless; rooting interest cannot enter into it.

If you are betting just to have money riding on your favorite team--which is where I think UConn Trumbull is coming from--then of course bet the money line. You are betting in order to double down on the emotional thrill of winning, so why subject yourself to an ending like last night's?

 

[Tenspro2002]

Spot on. The obsession with spread bets is crazy especially considering the vig. Just take ML.

I mean, there are some cases where it's absolutely worthwhile to bet the spread instead of the moneyline, but -1.5 is not it lol

 

[Tenspro2002]

I had live bets on Nova ML (lost, happily), Nova +9.5 and Nova +12.5 (bet when we took a big early lead and knew it wouldn't hold up on the road and won easily) so avoided any of this pregame spread nonsense.

 

[The Yakk]

I mean, there are some cases where it's absolutely worthwhile to bet the spread instead of the moneyline, but -1.5 is not it lol

Here is the perfect case study.

At -1.5, you might be getting 5% or 10% higher return on your money if you bet the spread. The analytical bettor will measure that extra value against the risk and decide which is the better bet.

The emotional bettor will not want to risk a losing bet on his team in a close game, and will say, "-1.5...lol".

 

[The Yakk]

I had live bets on Nova ML (lost, happily), Nova +9.5 and Nova +12.5 (bet when we took a big early lead and knew it wouldn't hold up on the road and won easily) so avoided any of this pregame spread nonsense.

Good for you, won 2 out of 3.

I'm curious, how much did the +9.5 and +12.5 bets pay? Did they cover the loss on your ML bet? If they did, can I get your bookie's contact info please?

Edit: Oops sorry, I apologize I missed that you said it was a live bet. Well done, nice betting.

 

[Zissou]

I had live bets on Nova ML (lost, happily), Nova +9.5 and Nova +12.5 (bet when we took a big early lead and knew it wouldn't hold up on the road and won easily) so avoided any of this pregame spread nonsense.

Looks good in hind sight. At 10 minutes to play I was uncertain whether Nova would battle to the end or fade away (like vs Marquette). Good logic and winning bet for you, but far from a sure thing.

 

[Nostical]

Why subject yourself to an ending like last night's?

Why buy a stock when you could buy a fixed rate bond? Betting is about having an opinion and being willing to back it up. Being anxious toward the end of any game is what makes the whole process worth the effort. It’s the sweaty palms, not just the money, that are the rewards for putting your opinion to the test. And when the wild half court three misses at the end there’s exhilaration, and if it crazily happens to go in and you unbelievably lose the bet—it’s a bad beat story you’ll tell at the bar next week and far beyond.

 

[The Yakk]

Why buy a stock when you could buy a fixed rate bond? Betting is about having an opinion and being willing to back it up. Being anxious toward the end of any game is what makes the whole process worth the effort. It’s the sweaty palms, not just the money, that are the rewards for putting your opinion to the test. And when the wild half court three misses at the end there’s exhilaration, and if it crazily happens to go in and you unbelievably lose the bet—it’s a bad beat story you’ll tell at the bar next week and far beyond.

Agree 100%.

Everyone has his own reason for betting. I was just explaining how a team-first bettor like UConn Trumbull could have a legitimate reason to prefer the money line.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I mean, there are some cases where it's absolutely worthwhile to bet the spread instead of the moneyline, but -1.5 is not it lol

Oh absolutely. If the spread is 5.5-6.5 or more then I totally get it. I should’ve been more specific. To me -1.5 is not worth it versus ML. Even 2-2.5 I usually take ML.

 

[JayKoz]

I just mean I think people prefer spread because it’s the closest thing to a 50/50 bet yet the psychology of sports is more tailored to ML. Did UConn care that Nova hit that half court shot? Probably not. That’s the difference between ML and spread already.

Yeah, but the more you bet on -130/-140 money lines, the higher percentage of bets you need to win just to break even.

-110 lines? You need 52.4% to break even. You increase that? I say good luck making money in the long run. You’re just giving the house a bigger edge.

-1.5 wasn’t available for long, that thing dashed to 3.5. Ended up being the same exact result.

I’d wager whatever you’d like that after a season of taking -130+ odds, you won’t make money.

 

[Rich]

SOMEBODY GET STANFORD STEVE ON THE LINE.

This should lead the segment Monday LOL

 

[The Yakk]

Yeah, but the more you bet on -130/-140 money lines, the higher percentage of bets you need to win just to break even.

-110 lines? You need 52.4% to break even. You increase that? I say good luck making money in the long run. You’re just giving the house a bigger edge.

-1.5 wasn’t available for long, that thing dashed to 3.5. Ended up being the same exact result.

I’d wager whatever you’d like that after a season of taking -130+ odds, you won’t make money.

You are assuming he only bets the favorites. What if he bets the underdogs?



In reality, nothing is so simple in gambling that it can be reduced to a simple rule.

"Always bet the money line if you like the favorite and the spread is 1.5". Yuck.

"Never bet the favorite on the money line because you get paid less." Yuck, ptooey.

In truth, the only way to be a long-term winner is to make your best estimate for the outcome of the game--or even better, the range of potential outcomes--and make the bet that gives the best value. Might be the money line, might be the underdog to cover, whatever. Everything else is betting by feel or emotion.

Nothing wrong with betting by emotion, by the way. The thrill is an important part of it for many people. I love Nostical's comments above.