UConn - 1.5 v. Nova

[BGesus4]

Brutal. I had it at -1.5. You gotta guard that guard that half court 3 up 4 when the line is -1.5.

 

[navery12]

Yep. It was karma. Public piling on uconn to drive line to 4.

You must be livid right now that you don't have an actual loss to complain about

 

[Deleted at users request]

Unfreakingbelievable

 

[caw]

Brutal. I had it at -1.5. You gotta guard that guard that half court 3 up 4 when the line is -1.5.

Please tell me you are joking?

 

[How Sway?!]

Brutal. I had it at -1.5. You gotta guard that guard that half court 3 up 4 when the line is -1.5.

So risk fouling and creating a 4 pt play just so that a bunch of gamblers don't lose money?

 

[HooperScooper]

So risk fouling and creating a 4 pt play just so that a bunch of gamblers don't lose money?

100% that was sarcasm

 

[BGesus4]

So risk fouling and creating a 4 pt play just so that a bunch of gamblers don't lose money?

I mean Hurley screwed it up by burning his last timeout too early. You need to scheme a way to get the ball out of the good half court shooters’ hands.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Back to the Nova moneyline and 2nd bet UConn -10 strategy for tonight.

This worked like a charm last year. Less so this year.

 

[inWV]

So risk fouling and creating a 4 pt play just so that a bunch of gamblers don't lose money?

This. Up by four with a couple of secs left? Defend the long pass then get away from the shooter.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Brutal. I had it at -1.5. You gotta guard that guard that half court 3 up 4 when the line is -1.5.

This is one of the reasons why I would never bet a line at -1.5. I'd rather just bet the moneyline at -130 or whatever.

That sucks though. At least your pain will be immortalized by Scott Van Pelt in the coming weeks.

 

[Blue Blood]

Gotta be worst bad beat in uconn history I didn't have it but hearts out to you if you did

 

[Tenspro2002]

Gotta be worst bad beat in uconn history I didn't have it but hearts out to you if you did

The Duke Final Four game in 2004 was literally the exact same scenario.

 

[Blue Blood]

The Duke Final Four game in 2004 was literally the exact same scenario.

Now that I say that wasn't 2011 kentucky game similar too

 

[auror]

This worked like a charm last year. Less so this year.

It felt like either one would hit at various points in the game lol.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Now that I say that wasn't 2011 kentucky game similar too

They did hit a meaningless 3 at the end, though I'm not sure what the spread was.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Had a sizeable bet at -3.5. Expected to lose it via an uncontested Nova layup with 0.5 sec left. The half court 3 was more exciting, at least!

 

[Jmark212]

Reminds me of the 04 final 4 game against Duke. Up 4 and Duhon hits a meaningless half court 3 to cover the +3. I had that bet. Thankfully I avoided this one.

 

[Hunt for 7]

That was a very expensive three first thing my friend did when it went through was kind of throw his phone. Actually it was kind of funny I tried my best not to laugh but he was not happy when he left my house. It is a tough way to lose $500.

 

[UConnTrumbull]

This is one of the reasons why I would never bet a line at -1.5. I'd rather just bet the moneyline at -130 or whatever.

That sucks though. At least your pain will be immortalized by Scott Van Pelt in the coming weeks.

Spot on. The obsession with spread bets is crazy especially considering the vig. Just take ML.

 

[BGesus4]

Spot on. The obsession with spread bets is crazy especially considering the vig. Just take ML.

I don’t get what you’re saying. There’s vig on the ml too, of course. You’re essentially just buying the points. There isn’t some secret arbitrage opportunity that Vegas has missed.

 

[Chin Diesel]

The Duke Final Four game in 2004 was literally the exact same scenario.

This is the correct answer for UConn fans and unless it happens in a championship game, it will always be the right answer.

 

[Nostical]

I had it at -3.5. As the game moved into its final stages I was resigned to losing the bet, and just hoped we didn’t blow the game! Then when Newton gave us the 4 point lead with 4 secs left, I suddenly had an unexpected chance of covering and was thrilled watching them hoist that low percentage half court shot at the end.Then bam—absolutely stunned to see it go in. All I could do was shake my head at another SVP Bad Beat!

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I don’t get what you’re saying. There’s vig on the ml too, of course. You’re essentially just buying the points. There isn’t some secret arbitrage opportunity that Vegas has missed.

I just mean I think people prefer spread because it’s the closest thing to a 50/50 bet yet the psychology of sports is more tailored to ML. Did UConn care that Nova hit that half court shot? Probably not. That’s the difference between ML and spread already.

 

[willie99]

The exact same thing happened to me in the Final Four 2004, UConn vs Dook, meaningless long three at the end results in a 1 point victory, spread was 1.5

My buddy and I were joking about taking Dook +1.5, since we were in SA, that would be somewhat of a reprieve.

Little did we know, would could have had the both of best worlds. The win of course, was by far the most important thing.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

From another thread:

I see this as a good omen. We had one point wins under identical circumstances (prayer three at the buzzer when we were up four) in the 2004 national semifinal win against Duke and again in the 2011 national semifinal win against Kentucky. I believe it signifies an imminent national title on the horizon.

 

[The Yakk]

I don’t get what you’re saying. There’s vig on the ml too, of course. You’re essentially just buying the points. There isn’t some secret arbitrage opportunity that Vegas has missed.

If you are betting to win money, then you are absolutely right. Do your analysis and bet where you get the greatest value. And you have to be ice cold and merciless; rooting interest cannot enter into it.

If you are betting just to have money riding on your favorite team--which is where I think UConn Trumbull is coming from--then of course bet the money line. You are betting in order to double down on the emotional thrill of winning, so why subject yourself to an ending like last night's?

 

[Tenspro2002]

Spot on. The obsession with spread bets is crazy especially considering the vig. Just take ML.

I mean, there are some cases where it's absolutely worthwhile to bet the spread instead of the moneyline, but -1.5 is not it lol

 

[Tenspro2002]

I had live bets on Nova ML (lost, happily), Nova +9.5 and Nova +12.5 (bet when we took a big early lead and knew it wouldn't hold up on the road and won easily) so avoided any of this pregame spread nonsense.

 

[The Yakk]

I mean, there are some cases where it's absolutely worthwhile to bet the spread instead of the moneyline, but -1.5 is not it lol

Here is the perfect case study.

At -1.5, you might be getting 5% or 10% higher return on your money if you bet the spread. The analytical bettor will measure that extra value against the risk and decide which is the better bet.

The emotional bettor will not want to risk a losing bet on his team in a close game, and will say, "-1.5...lol".

 

[The Yakk]

I had live bets on Nova ML (lost, happily), Nova +9.5 and Nova +12.5 (bet when we took a big early lead and knew it wouldn't hold up on the road and won easily) so avoided any of this pregame spread nonsense.

Good for you, won 2 out of 3.

I'm curious, how much did the +9.5 and +12.5 bets pay? Did they cover the loss on your ML bet? If they did, can I get your bookie's contact info please?

Edit: Oops sorry, I apologize I missed that you said it was a live bet. Well done, nice betting.