Top 25's

[TerpWomenFan]

I can't put SCar over ND or Baylor until they beat them. They have beaten TN but I honestly don't know if they can beat TN twice this year. I say they should be Top 5 all year but more in the 3 - 5 range.

This is why I never place Maryland over Notre Dame

 

[Nuyoika]

Welch also played 239 minutes more than Wilson, which is why I used rebound rate. I'll give you that she was a disproportionately good offensive rebounder. On the other hand, she killed their spacing and couldn't shoot free throws, so I still think they are better offensively without her.

Regarding Wilson wanting to play the 3, they only really have Coates, Wilson, Imovbioh and White for the post. Maybe they can play with some big lineups that let her play 3 but she'll have to play mostly 4 just based on depth.

I think the offense will be better but I'm not really sure by how much. They didn't shoot well vs ranked opponents last year and I'm not sure that having Wilson and Coates play more minutes will change that greatly. I get the feeling it'll be a trade off. They will score a little more and so will their opponents and then they will run into a ranked team and it'll be the same thing as last year. Those kinds of improvements take more than 1 year and a change in a couple of players. I think they need a bit of process change altogether to get to the next step. Also, how does the spacing get any better this year? The name of the game there is pound it in the post. I'm not sure who is suppose to be spacing the floor for them really.

 

[Nuyoika]

This is why I never place Maryland over Notre Dame

Logic is best.

 

[Orangutan]

I think the offense will be better but I'm not really sure by how much. They didn't shoot well vs ranked opponents last year and I'm not sure that having Wilson and Coates play more minutes will change that greatly. I get the feeling it'll be a trade off. They will score a little more and so will their opponents and then they will run into a ranked team and it'll be the same thing as last year. Those kinds of improvements take more than 1 year and a change in a couple of players. I think they need a bit of process change altogether to get to the next step.

I think I believe more in their young players than you do. I think A'ja Wilson could be the next NPOY (after Stewart wins again this year). It's not only those two playing more minutes. It's both of them playing more minutes AND playing better than last year.

We will see. I have no particular affection for SC, so I wouldn't mind being wrong.

 

[Nuyoika]

I think I believe more in their young players than you do. I think A'ja Wilson could be the next NPOY (after Stewart wins again this year). It's not only those two playing more minutes. It's both of them playing more minutes AND playing better than last year.

We will see. I have no particular affection for SC, so I wouldn't mind being wrong.

It's not that I have no belief in them. They made it to the FF. They should expect to make it there again. The problem is I feel like other teams will improve more than they will this year. I think everyone is pretty sure about the Top 1 - 5. Of the 5 SCar is still the wild card. All the other teams are proven championship teams and SCar isn't. An elite team shouldn't spend so many games playing from behind. Maybe the line up will fix that maybe not. All I'm saying is if your shooting percentage drops 10% when you play ranked teams I don't think changing the line up will matter. That's a mental product. That means to me that typically you are playing down to the level of your opponent and when you meet an equally talented opponent you struggle. They showed resilience last year. When does that get old though? When do you want to go from just getting by with wins to true execution? That is what they are missing. I say let me give them the eye test vs a ranked opponent and see if they improve.

 

[Bestiarius]

Tenn will get a high initial ranking like they do most every year. They play their first 5 games at home, facing one team that was ranked at the end of last year, Texas. Last time I saw Texas I was sitting in my seat in Albany, feeling sorry for their fans. And after losing in Austin last year the LV's should be pumped for revenge at TBA. Most teams lose a game or two before the new year so they shouldn't fall much even if they lose a couple.

Like most teams, Tenn has but a couple of elite level games, At Notre Dame and at home to S Carolina, and a few near-elite level games against Kentucky, Stanford & Oregon St. I might also throw Miss St into that group. Those six games will decide whether they are ranked in the top 4 or in the top 14. If Russell, Graves & DeShields stay healthy they should be a lot closer to 4 and will get another one seed, their third in 3 years. If even one of them goes down they are in trouble. If all three stay healthy they could get past the regionals.

It's a lot easier to get a high ranking if a team doesn't play UConn. If TN played a home and home series the past 7 or so years, they could have added 14 additional losses to their record.

 

[USFMB]

South Carolina is clearly #2 in the country. Sarah Imovbioh gives them another strong rebounder that will help them tremendously. I think Baylor is #3 with Tennessee #4 and Notre Dame #5. Baylor have an easy schedule so they'll be in the top 5 pretty much all season.

Well, USF is hoping to face Baylor in the semi-final of their bracket in the preseason WNIT.

http://www.womensnit.com/2015.html

If USF beats them, do they still stay in the top 5?

 

[Alydar]

All the other teams are proven championship teams and SCar isn't.

Not really unless you go back to before any of the current rosters were playing. Next April will be the 8th aniversity of Tenn's last championship. I don't think anyone's left from Baylor's last NC. Same for the rest except UConn. Even Notre Dame, in both years that they beat UConn in the FF semi's they had a letdown in the NC game.

An elite team shouldn't spend so many games playing from behind. .... That means to me that typically you are playing down to the level of your opponent and when you meet an equally talented opponent you struggle.

Great point. It also applies to Tenn., a team that has lost several games to weak teams and who also typically has 3 or 4 games a year against mediocre teams in which they play poorly, even though they end up winning most of them. That catches up to you in the NCAA's, where once you reach the regionals you need four straight games where any letdown leads to a ticket home. I think the reason we have seen both Notre Dame and UConn in the FF for so many straight years is that both coaches emphasize playing 40 minutes. No letdowns allowed despite the level of the competition. It pays off in April.

This year it will be hard to judge Baylor since they really have no elite level games other than perhaps Texas. Their weak schedule may cost them a one seed but I wouldn't want them in my regional if I was a one seed.

 

[USFMB]

Well, USF is hoping to face Baylor in the semi-final of their bracket in the preseason WNIT.

http://www.womensnit.com/2015.html

If USF beats them, do they still stay in the top 5?

The 15 minute time allotted for editing my previous post expired, and I wanted to add something.

At the WNIT site, they have a link to a USF page and I just noticed a new introduction video from Freshman Kitija Laska. She has a good deal of international experience and we are expecting her to be an impact player for us from the outset.

USF Women's Basketball
5 hrs
Our talented freshman Kitija Laksa, would like to introduce herself! Get to know her here, then come cheer her on in the Sun Dome this season!

You can watch her video on the page to this link.

http://www.womensnit.com/south-florida.html

She might very well be the difference maker for us in games against top 25 teams this season.

So, if I seem a little excited about USF WBB this year, I must confesss...I am!!!

 

[Alydar]

Well, USF is hoping to face Baylor in the semi-final of their bracket in the preseason WNIT.

http://www.womensnit.com/2015.html

If USF beats them, do they still stay in the top 5?

Likely they will drop but as those in front of them lose they will climb back up to the top 5 by New Years, as long as they don't lose another. A team that gets an initial high ranking won't move down unless they lose. Last year Georgia was a perfect example. They won 12 straight early against a bunch of really weak programs and got as high as 13th. Once they had to play conference games it became clear they were living on their name and they sank out of the rankings, but it took 2 months. In the meantime a lot of schools got to claim a bogus top 25 win.

That's why I prefer analytic rankings like Massey. They aren't perfect either but they do a lot better job than the AP or Coach's polls. Or even the RPI for that matter.

 

[USFMB]

Likely they will drop but as those in front of them lose they will climb back up to the top 5 by New Years, as long as they don't lose another. A team that gets an initial high ranking won't move down unless they lose. Last year Georgia was a perfect example. They won 12 straight early against a bunch of really weak programs and got as high as 13th. Once they had to play conference games it became clear they were living on their name and they sank out of the rankings, but it took 2 months. In the meantime a lot of schools got to claim a bogus top 25 win.

That's why I prefer analytic rankings like Massey. They aren't perfect either but they do a lot better job than the AP or Coach's polls. Or even the RPI for that matter.

Thanks.

On the flip side, assuming that USF is ranked about #20 at the time, approximately, how much would a win over Baylor be gained by them in ranking places?

I'm hoping that by the time we face UCONN, at home, we are somewhere in the top 15.

We had some good crowds near the end of last year and are on a record pace for WBB season tickets. I'd like to see that increase even more in the coming years.

BTW, I'm not sure how you came by your screen name, but I was at the Belmont Stakes in 1978, since I was living in LI at the time, and got to watch that great race between Alydar and Affirmed. I remember it well, also because I ended up holding a losing $100 ticket on your namesake.

 

[Alydar]

Thanks.

On the flip side, assuming that USF is ranked about #20 at the time, approximately, how much would a win over Baylor be gained by them in ranking places?

BTW, I'm not sure how you came by your screen name, but I was at the Belmont Stakes in 1978, since I was living in LI at the time, and got to watch that great race between Alydar and Affirmed. I remember it well, also because I ended up holding a losing $100 ticket on your namesake.

Frankly, beating a team like Baylor would move USF up but you have to realize that the AP & USA polls are very skewed in favor of the P5 conferences. Baylor might slide from 5th to 9th and USF might move up only 3 spots.

I like USF. I root for them against all but one team. Fernandez has always has his teams playing hard. In fact they are third on my list of teams likely to beat UConn this year.

In case you didn't know it, Massey had USF ranked 17th at the end of the season and Massey had them about there most of the second half of the year. Massey is blind to conference affiliation and unlike RPI, factors in MOV. USF has a nice OOC schedule this year that should help their RPI. If they could somehow get a 4 or 5 seed they would have a good shot at making the regionals.

I was a fan of Alydar during the 78 TC series. An east coast vs West coast thing. Most people think of Secretariat when they think of a memorable Belmont Stakes but the race between Alydar and Affirmed was the best Belmont I ever saw, before or since. Alydar finished second to Affirmed in all 3 races but the total margin was less than 2 lengths. Alydar got revenge in the breeding shed, becoming a prolific sire.

I use the name as a remembrance for a late friend I met on another board with whom I shared a love of horse racing.

 

[USFMB]

Frankly, beating a team like Baylor would move USF up but you have to realize that the AP & USA polls are very skewed in favor of the P5 conferences. Baylor might slide from 5th to 9th and USF might move up only 3 spots.

I like USF. I root for them against all but one team. Fernandez has always has his teams playing hard. In fact they are third on my list of teams likely to beat UConn this year.

In case you didn't know it, Massey had USF ranked 17th at the end of the season and Massey had them about there most of the second half of the year. Massey is blind to conference affiliation and unlike RPI, factors in MOV. USF has a nice OOC schedule this year that should help their RPI. If they could somehow get a 4 or 5 seed they would have a good shot at making the regionals.

I was a fan of Alydar during the 78 TC series. An east coast vs West coast thing. Most people think of Secretariat when they think of a memorable Belmont Stakes but the race between Alydar and Affirmed was the best Belmont I ever saw, before or since. Alydar finished second to Affirmed in all 3 races but the total margin was less than 2 lengths. Alydar got revenge in the breeding shed, becoming a prolific sire.

I use the name as a remembrance for a late friend I met on another board with whom I shared a love of horse racing.

No question that the polls (not only in WBB) favor the P5 conferences. They are also very quick to drop like a rock a non P5 school who has even a respectable loss to a top team.

I like horse racing too. When I go to upstate NY and visit my son, over the summer, we always head to Saratoga racetrack. I must admit though, that I'm really not sure if it's the horse races there or the great lobster rolls, which I enjoy the most.

 

[Fightin Choke]

The Athlon ranking seemed pretty unpopular, so perhaps we should allow them to make their case. I found their justification for the rankings here: LINK.

 

[Alydar]

Reading these blurbs reminds me of write ups for horses running in the Kentucky Derby. There is always something good to say about every one and a reason why they can win the race.

But a few of the comments give me pause.

Mercedes Russell and Diamond DeShields were two of the best freshmen in the country in 2013-14, - See more at: http://athlonsports.com/magazines/a...ollege-basketball-top-25#sthash.6Z0MuKpV.dpuf

Well, they are half right.

the spotlight at USC may fall on sophomore A’ja Wilson and junior Alaina Coates. Those two delivered impressive numbers last year while coming off the bench. Can they move to another level as starters in 2015-16? - See more at: http://athlonsports.com/magazines/a...ollege-basketball-top-25#sthash.6Z0MuKpV.dpuf

The better question is whether DeShields and Russell can move to the level that Coates and Wilson were at last year.




I guess tOSU is picked 5th solely because they are the best team in the B1G? At least that's what I read. Else how do you pick them 5th after an eleven loss season?

tOSU, TAMU, Texas, Okl, & Duke all had double digit losses last year and yet all are picked higher than Fla. St., who went 32-5 and who brings back 4 of their top 5 scorers, and has Romero who will know a lot more about the teams in the ACC this year.

I give them a semi-pass on UNC because they wrote this before Mavunga left.

U of S. Florida ended the season ranked 17th by Massey while Miss St was ranked 30th. Miss St returns 4 starters after a 27-7 season and is picked 6th while the Univ of S Florida brings back their entire starting team after going 27-8 in a season very much like Miss St's and yet are picked 20th? That 'ol SEC cache strikes again. LOL

I'm looking forward to the Dec 18th game at tOSU(5th) against Princeton(25th).

 

[Nuyoika]

Not really unless you go back to before any of the current rosters were playing. Next April will be the 8th aniversity of Tenn's last championship. I don't think anyone's left from Baylor's last NC. Same for the rest except UConn. Even Notre Dame, in both years that they beat UConn in the FF semi's they had a letdown in the NC game.

I guess I should've been more clear. The point I was making is that they are in uncharted territory. The other Top schools are not. To win in the FF you need exceptional team play or talent and great coaching. All things being considered I can't put them above any of the other teams who should get there.

 

[Orangutan]

Reading these blurbs reminds me of write ups for horses running in the Kentucky Derby. There is always something good to say about every one and a reason why they can win the race.

I had a similar thought. I don't disagree with the blurbs but they have the teams in the wrong order. Mississippi State, Oklahoma, and Northwestern all are higher than Florida State and I can't see any possible logic to that. Those three teams each return 4 starters but so do Florida State and Florida State was MUCH better last year. Then again, their FSU blurb says Romero is a center, so their knowledge of FSU might be lacking in general.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Reading these blurbs reminds me of write ups for horses running in the Kentucky Derby. There is always something good to say about every one and a reason why they can win the race.

But a few of the comments give me pause.



Well, they are half right.



The better question is whether DeShields and Russell can move to the level that Coates and Wilson were at last year.




I guess tOSU is picked 5th solely because they are the best team in the B1G? At least that's what I read. Else how do you pick them 5th after an eleven loss season?

tOSU, TAMU, Texas, Okl, & Duke all had double digit losses last year and yet all are picked higher than Fla. St., who went 32-5 and who brings back 4 of their top 5 scorers, and has Romero who will know a lot more about the teams in the ACC this year.

I give them a semi-pass on UNC because they wrote this before Mavunga left.

U of S. Florida ended the season ranked 17th by Massey while Miss St was ranked 30th. Miss St returns 4 starters after a 27-7 season and is picked 6th while the Univ of S Florida brings back their entire starting team after going 27-8 in a season very much like Miss St's and yet are picked 20th? That 'ol SEC cache strikes again. LOL

I'm looking forward to the Dec 18th game at tOSU(5th) against Princeton(25th).

Ohio State opens against USC in Columbia so that will give a good indication of how good they are. If our football season doesn't turn around there may be a full house for that WBB game.

 

[UcMiami]

Late to the party on the SC debate about Wilson/Coates and the loss of Welch/Ibiam and the stats from last year. Two points:
1. Wilson/Coates not starting meant that they were putting up their numbers against either slightly tired starters 5 minutes into the game, or against some bench players for some significant time that they were on the court - that is part of why 'sixth man' is such an important concept in basketball and has its own award - I think the only pro sport that has a major award for a bench player.

2. Regardless of individual talent, having a four player rotation of that quality at the 4/5 is a wonderful luxury that will be missed - in one obvious way in terms of having 20 fouls available, but also just in the quality of play when players get rested, and bigs do need rest.

Ultimately,I don't think SC misses Ibiam that much but I thought Welch was a huge factor for them last year and will be missed.

On the polls - none of them make much sense for the first 6 weeks of the season, and even early January there can be significant aberrations. What I do like about Massey and Sagarin is that they are numbers based and are not influenced by reputation, conference, etc. Some voters in the AP and ESPN polls take the job seriously, most just mail it in for the most part, and few see enough games to really evaluate all the teams.

 

[triaddukefan]

Ohio State opens against USC in Columbia so that will give a good indication of how good they are. If our football season doesn't turn around there may be a full house for that WBB game.

Looking like its gonna be a long fb season down in Columbia ...

 

[Kaizen]

What happens to Dayton? They gave UConn a surprise in March 30 at Albany.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

Looking like its gonna be a long fb season down in Columbia ...

Unfortunately, you may be right, but never count Spurrier out.

 

[UcMiami]

What happens to Dayton? They gave UConn a surprise in March 30 at Albany.

They have some good players coming back but they lost the two best players to graduation, so it will be tough.